Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
6* Cardinals -1.5
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is the Cards on the "run line":
Carlos Zambrano gets the nod for the visitors; as soon as the Cubs are out of a playoff race, Zambrano kicks it into high gear and starts winning again.
He's been awesome of late, but I'm expecting a letdown here against a determined and embarrassed home side.
Despite yesterday's victory, the Cubs are a brutal 30-42 (-21.9 units) vs. division opponents; also 40-54 (-17.7 units) vs. right-handed starters and 30-39 (-5.5 units) on the road.
In the other dugout: Chris Carpenter heads to the hill for the home side; Carpenter is coming off a poor outing but he'll look to get back on track today against a team that he's dominated and continue his 15-6, 3.09 ERA.
He's 1-1 with a 3.20 ERA in three starts vs. the Cubbies this year.
There is no question that St. Louis is struggling right now, but keep in mind that it's 9-2 (+5.8 units) when playing at home when the total is 7 or less.
Bottom line: Albert Pujols is expected to return to the lineup tonight; Pujols leads the NL with 39 home-runs and had a cortisone injection Monday night, and said before Tuesday’s game that he anticipates being back in the lineup for the finale.
Carpenter is 2-1 with a 1.00 ERA in six home starts against the Cubs since 2005 and I expect him to throw with a chip on his shoulder tonight;
Larry Ness
RL GOM - St-Louis -1.5
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