Stan Lisowski
5* Yanks
4* Hous
3* Flor
Power Play Wins
Chicago White Sox -122
Larry Ness
Perfect Storm - Arizona
Robert Ferringo
1-Unit Play. Take Houston (-125) over Atlanta
This one is all about Wandy. He is 13-3 in his last 16 home starts and over the past two years has been one of the best home bets in the league. The Braves are kind of playing with heads up their asses right now and are on a 1-6 skid. They won yesterday, which I think strengthens the Astros' resolve today.
2.5-Unit Play. Take Florida (-115) over N.Y. Mets
I just don't understand how Patrick Misch is pitching in the Majors right now, much less winning his first couple starts. But I'm sold on fading him for the rest of the year. I think he is a fraud and I don't think that he is any good. Florida has gotten much better this year against left-handed pitching. No bet against the Mets right now is a bad one. And the fact that they are facing a right-handed starter with potentially overpowering stuff (the Mets don't fare well against righty power pitchers) on a short number puts us in an even better position.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Detroit (-1.5, +110) over Kansas City
Automatic play. Justin Verlander is 9-1 in his career against the Royals and 5-1 with a 1.16 ERA in Kauffman Stadium. The Tigers are 24-10 in their last 34 trips to KC and they lost last night. Oh, and Robinson Tejeda and his flat fastball are nothing to fear.
1-Unit Play. Take Philadelphia (-1.5, -125) over Washington
Looking for a little Cliff Lee domination. Philly came back and covered the runline last night and I see no reason why they can't take advantage of that Nationals bullpen and do the same thing again. Lee has had two straight awful outings. But the Nationals are slump-busters for pitchers as much as for hitters.
1-Unit Play. Take Colorado (-165) over Cincinnati
Rockies just keep rolling. Cashed in on the run line with them yesterday and now we'll go back to the well. Cincinnati had a nice run going, but that was more a product of a favorable schedule and some other teams (like Atlanta) just not playing well. They were catching the right teams at the right time. Not the Rockies. Bronso Arroyo throws a lot of junk. And in Coors Field those pitches have a habit of hanging.
1-Unit Play. Take Chicago White Sox (-130) over Oakland
Normally this would be a run line play in keeping with one of our top systems. But with Freddy Garcia on the hill and this light number I will just play this one straight with the moneyline play. Chicago has been exceptional at home for the past few years. So getting upset in Game 1 by a weaker team sets them up nicely for a bounceback.
Today’s Totals
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 7.5 Atlanta at Houston
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.5 Philadelphia at Washington
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.5 Cincinnati at Colorado )
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 10.5 Baltimore at Boston
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.5 Oakland at Chicago White Sox
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.0 Seattle at L.A. Angels
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 7.5 Minnesota at Toronto
That looks like everything guys I have to run my usual Wednesday errands at work.
MTi Sports
Oakland at Chicago
Play: Chicago -124
In his last three starts, Freddy Garcia has faced the Red Sox twice and the Yankees once. He had a quality start each time but the Sox were 1-2 in those three games because their bullpen allowed a total of eight runs in the three games. We see no reason why this should not continue at home vs a weaker foe. Garcia is at his best late in the season, as the White Sox are 8-0 in Freddy Garcia’s starts when he is in his second+ start after August, winning by an average of 4.2 rpg.
Yesterday, the Sox were embarrassed by Oakland. The A’s scored five in the top of the first and added two more in the top of the second to take an early 7-0 lead. Oakland eventually won 11-3 as a 135 dog.
Chicago is a perfect 13-0 (+3.2 rpg) since late April at home when they are off a game in which they allowed at least six runs and their starter lasted less than six innings. See for yourself (team=White Sox and H and po:runs >= 6 and p:SIP =20090425). In addition, the White Sox are The White Sox are 7-0 THIS season at home after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits, winning by an average of 4.0 runs per game.
The Athletics are on a nice winning streak, but this should not intimidate the White Sox. Chicago is 6-0 THIS season when hosting a team that has won at least their last three games, winning every game on the run-line.
Oakland is a defeatist 0-6 on the road when they are off a win in which they never trailed and it is not the first game of a series – thus allowing quick revenge. The A’s have lost these six games by an average of 7.0 runs to 4.0 runs. This price seems cheap. Lay it.
MTi’s FORECAST: CHICAGO 6 Oakland 4
BIG AL
Los Angeles at Arizona
Play: Los Angeles +117
At 10:10pm our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Arizona Diamondbacks. If the Dodgers stick with the six man rotation that they seem to have formed, then this start should go to former Arizona D-Back Jon Garland. The veteran righthander would seem to be a perfect fit for this club, capable of giving the Dodgers seven quality innings most of the time he goes out there, handing the ball to the "dual closers" of George Sherrill and Jonathan Broxton. Garland doesn't throw hard and can seemingly pitch all day if he has to. In his Dodger debut, Garland pitched against his former team and beat them with a typical Jon Garland seven inning quality start. That game was in Los Angeles, but Garland is certainly familiar with the surroundings at Arizona's Chase Field and should have no problems getting comfortable there tonight. His biggest issue will be facing Arizona's Dan Haren this time (he opposed Billy Buckner in the 4-2 victory last Thursday) as Haren is considered one of the top starters in the National League, even if he's fallen a bit from the Cy Young race recently. But Garland can feel good about the fact that over their last three starts, he's actually out-pitched Haren and he now has a much better offense behind him not to mention the fact that he is pitching for a team that will almost certainly be one of the top seeds in the postseason and that alone should give Garland quite a boost. Take the Dodgers.
IndianCowboy
4 Unit Play. Take Cincinnati Under 9.5 between the Reds @ Colorado Rockies
I don't know who had a conversation with Bronson Arroyo about a couple months ago, but he has turned his season around. Since July 28th, he has recorded eight straight quality starts. He has given up just five runs over the last 38 innings and has been very consistent. He last faced the Rockies at home and his team fell short 4-6 as he picked up a no-decision in the contest going 7 innings and giving up three runs. I expect another strong performance from him today as he looks for the win. Hammel has been pitching well of late and his last three starts have yielded no decisions. I look for a strong outing for Hammel as he looks to pick up a win finally over his last four starts and he is quite capable of going 6-7 innings and giving up three runs today. I believe Arroyo will help raise Jason's game a bit here and bear in mind the Rockies need quality starts from their pitchers if they hope to continue to stay pace in the wild card chase. The Under is 5-0 for the Reds on the highway of late and the Under is 7-3 for the Rockies when the total is set at this range.