Free Picks: Premium Service Plays Monday 7/20/09

Tom Stryker's

National League Super Play of the Week
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

Lou Panelli

20* MLB Phillies -120(100 Dime VEGAS KEY INFO)
10* MLB San Diego +100
10* MLB White Sox over 9
10* MLB Twins under 8.5
10* MLB Arizona over 9.5
10* MLB Milwaukee over 9

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http://www.thespread.com/forum/index.php?topic=64835.0

Halfbets
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San Francisco v. Atlanta
Pick: Braves RL +115 (6*)

Scott Delaney

Guaranteed winner ... 30-DIME N.Y. YANKEES -1-1/2 RUNS (Pettitte over Hernandez) - The Yankees celebrated Old-Timers’ Day at Yankees Stadium by completing a three-game sweep of the American Central-leading Tigers, while improving to 23-9 in their last 32 home games and pulling with one game of AL East-leading Boston, which lost 3-1 in Toronto.So today, with momentum in their pocket and southpaw veteran Andy Pettitte toeing the slab to face offensive punch-less Orioles, I’m guaranteeing the Yankees are going to denounce their AL East rivals in blowout fashion.Yes, New York has scored just nine runs over its first three games at home, but trust me when I tell you it’s just getting warmed up. Prior to the break, and despite getting swept in Anaheim to close the first half of the season, the Bombers averaged 6.75 runs per game in their previous eight games. So while the offense was non-existent against one of the more consistent rotations (Detroit’s) in the bigs this season, it’s time to tee off against the 28th ERA (4.96) in the league.

Baltimore’s staff is also near the bottom in losses (23rd with 50 losses), hits allowed (29th with 887), runs allowed (28th with 484) and homers allowed (27th with 112). The Orioles pitchers are also 27th in the league in recording only 535 strike outs – an average of about 5 per game.The victim today is David Hernandez, who was optioned to Triple-A Norfolk after his last start – on July 8 - in order to provide some flexibility for the Orioles. Not exactly the game I’d want to return to the rotation for, as he’ll step into Yankee Stadium for this series opener against the second-best lineup in the league.And while I know this kid has pitched into the sixth inning in four of his first five starts and has allowed more than three earned runs just once, but of his six starts this season, he’s faced the Tigers, Mariners twice, A’s, Nationals and Angels. All due respect to Seattle’s sudden surge and Detroit being a division leader, the Angels have the only lineup that compares to this one.Now once the Yanks beat up on Hernandez and move on to the bullpen, we’ll be able to count on Pettitte to stifle a Baltimore lineup that blew its wad in the series finale against the White Sox yesterday and in no way will be able to duplicate that production. In three previous games in New York – from May 8-10 – the O’s average just three runs per game, getting swept by a Yankees lineup that put up 27 runs in the series – an average of nine runs per game.Tonight marks Pettitte’s first start of the season against the Orioles, against whom he was a perfect 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA last season. Thus, he’ll be thoroughly pumped to avenge two straight losses, not to mention a 1-2 slide and 7.29 ERA in his past four starts.This is the perfect spot for Pettitte, the perfect spot for the Yankees to win big, and quite obviously, the perfect spot for a Guranteed Winner!

Wunderdog

Game: New York Mets at Washington (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Washington -130 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.3)

Game: San Francisco at Atlanta (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Atlanta -180 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 1.7)

Game: San Francisco at Atlanta (7:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Atlanta -1.5 runs +120 (runline) (risk 3 to win 3.6)

Game: Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia (7:20 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Philadelphia -110 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Game: Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia (7:25 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Philadelphia -1.5 runs +170 (runline) (risk 3 to win 5.1)

Game: Minnesota at Oakland (10:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Oakland +110 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 3.3)

Game: Minnesota at Oakland (10:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Oakland +1.5 runs -150 (runline) (risk 3 to win 2)

MONEYLOCKOFTHEDAY
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Cubs +110 (3 Units)
Reds +145 (3 Units)

Craig Davis

30 Dimes
WHITE SOX (With Price and Floyd as listed pitchers)

Robert Ferringo

2.5-Unit Play. Take #923 L.A. Angels (-120) over Kansas City
2.5-Unit Play. Take #916 L.A. Dodgers (-145) over Cincinnati
Note: Lower to 2-Unit Play. Line movement.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #912 Colorado (-145) over Arizona
Note: Lower to 2-Unit Play. Line movement.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #908 Atlanta (-170) over San Francisco
1.5-Unit Play. Take #918 N.Y. Yankees (-1.5, -110) over Baltimore
1-Unit Play. Take #906 Philadelphia (-115) over Chicago Cubs
1-Unit Play. Take #901 N.Y. Mets (+115) over Washington

Today's Total
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.5 St. Louis at Houston
Note: Should be 1.5-Unit Play. Will be graded as such.
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.5 Minnesota at Oakland

Accu Picks

4 Units Rockies De La Rosa - $ 1.40

IndianCowboy

4 Unit Play. Take Under 8.5 between the Minnesota Twins @ Oakland A's (Monday @ 10pm est). Let's return to the American League from here on out. It was the mold for the success of the first half of the season. Nick Blakburn is 5-2 over his last ten starts and he has produced some solid numbers this year. The Oklahoma native has a 8-4 record with a 3.14 era and he has been able to do this because of his ability to work out of jams successfully on the road. Nick has given up 21 hits over his last two starts on the road, as he pitched a total of 14 innings in those two contests combined and yet only gave up six runs. He has pitche din 8 of 10 unders so far and he has yet to have a back to back over start. He comes off an Over effort against the Whitesox where he gave up 4 runs through the course of seven innings and I expect him to more efficient effort today. He pitched against Oakland this year and fell short 3-4 as he picked up a no-decision but gave up just 3 runs on 8 innings. I look for him to have a better effort today as this time around he looks to get the 'W'. Gio Gonzalez has quite a bit of potential and he looks to turn the page on what has been a tough season. He is 1-2 with a 6.29 but the A's are known to have arguably the best crop of young pitchers over the last decade in baseabll. This is the organization that most recently has produced Brett Anderson, Haren, Harden - not to mention Hudson, Mulder from "back in the day". Gio has the potential to put together a commanding start as he did against the Indians on the road earlier this year yielding just two runs in 6 innings and I expect him to put together a strong start today at home as the A's come off a tough 0-1 loss to the Angels. The Under is 5-0 in Blackburn's last five road starts and the Under is 14-3 when the A's face a righty of late.

Chris Jordan

300♦ TEXAS RANGERS (LIST Millwood only) - Tuning up for the American League East-leading Red Sox, the Rangers won a thriller over Minnesota last night in extra innings. And tonight I am putting my money on the hot-and-cold offense of the Rangers to turn up the heat on veteran right-hander John Smoltz, who is 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA for the BoSox.Rangers Ballpark is a tough place to pitch, and though the Rangers are mired in a 1-4 slide, last night’s 5-3 win in 12 innings is one of those games that can spark a team. And what I’ve found interesting is how this team responds and plays to the level of competition.To wit: the Rangers closed Interleague play by getting beat by dropping two straight to the Padres, 7-3 and 2-0. They came home and took two of three from the Angels by putting up 20 runs on the Halos and then swept the defending American League champion Rays by outscoring them 20-7. They hit the road and took two of three, again, from the Angels, scoring another 20 runs in that series – marking three straight series they scored 20 runs. Since then, they’ve lost five of seven, going 1-3 in Seattle and 1-2 in Minneapolis.It’s all mental, but if you ask me, Texas is playing tougher against the big boys, then it is against what is considered to be lesser competition.Boston has lost two straight and comes to town out of Toronto, and the Rangers are on a 4-0 roll against the A.L. East. And while the Red Sox have owned this series, winning 16 of the last 21 overall and six of the last seven in Texas, it’s important to note the Rangers went into Fenway Park and took two of three.I am counting on a big performance with Kevin Millwood, who has been rock solid in Arlington this season, going 6-1 with a 2.49 ERA. With the veteran right-hander on the bump, Texas is on runs of 20-7 at home, 11-5 against the A.L. East, 7-1 in series openers and 4-0 at the Ballpark against teams sporting a winning record.Even further, one of Millwood’s better starts this season came at Fenway Park, where he held the Red Sox to one unearned run on seven hits in seven innings of a 5-1 Texas win on June 5.
I’m playing the home team here, and banking on a big win from Millwood.

100♦ L.A. DODGERS (Action) - Had a lot to think about with this game, as I needed to take in consideration the long layoff for starter Jason Schmidt. Then I looked at the price of this game and realized the oddsmakers are telling us the Dodgers – and the veteran right-hander – are deservedly steep favorites tonight. And I don’t mind laying it with a team that continues to defy the naysayers by winning ball games however it can – including 19 of 28 one-run contests.

Cincinnati split its four-game home set with the Brewers out of the All-Star Break, but overall, has lost 10 of 14 since July 3. And since are heating up in the National League West, not to mention the entire senior circuit, these are the types of series the Dodgers need to take more seriously and win handedly. After dropping the first two of their four-game home set with the Astros, the Dodgers responded by winning the last two in the series.

I’ve got the momentum on my side with L.A., the team boasting the best record in baseball, as it won seven of eight meetings last season. Going back even further, the Dodgers have won 21 of the last 27 meetings, while the Reds are on a 3-8 slide in their last 11 as an underdog and have lost nine in a row at Dodger Stadium. Lay the chalk tonight, as the Dodgers dismantle the visiting Reds.

Smart Money

#919 Boston UNDER
#923 Angels

C-Star Sports

5000 Units Top Super Play Of The month
Milwaukee OVER Pittsburgh

Al DeMarco

5 Dime - Chicago White Sox

The White Sox were pounded by Baltimore at home on Sunday in a 10-2 loss, but prior to that setback the Pale Hose had won 16 of 23. Keying their surge has been an offense that's averaged 6.39 runs in that stretch. And tonight Chicago's lineup gets its hacks against Tampa rookie David Price, who is 0-2 with a 7.27 ERA in four road starts this season.White Sox hurler Gavin Floyd bounced back from a rough start to the season to quietly become one of the most effective pitchers in baseball in May and June. Although he was hit hard in his final two outings prior to the All Star break, allowing 10 earned runs in 13 innings, it's worth noting his long stretch of success prior to those bumps in the road as he allowed only nine earned runs in his previous eight starts covering 58.1 innings. And Floyd carries a 3-0 record and 1.73 ERA in his last six home starts, all of which were Chicago victories.Tampa is coming off a three-game sweep of the lowly Royals in Kansas City, but the Rays are still five games under .500 on the road on the season at 21-26. Prior to their success in KC, they had lost four in a row on the highway.With a rookie hurler on the mound who runs up high pitch counts and a bullpen that's been weakened by injuries, plus a hot Chicago team playing at home at a discounted price, the play here is to go against Tampa Bay and back Floyd and the White Sox.