BEN BURNS
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I'm playing on Saskatchewan and Montreal to finish UNDER the total.
These teams have both been involved in a pair of high-scoring games to start the season. Those results have caused this line to be a fair bit higher than it would have been otherwise, which I feel is providing us with excellent value. Yes, the Montreal offense is quite dangerous. However, that's been the case for several years now. Yet, even with all those explosive Montreal offenses, the last eight meetings between these teams, dating back to 2005, have all featured over/under lines of 56 or less, seven of them with o/u lines of less than 55. A closer look reveals that six of those eight games finished with 55 points or less. Looking back further and we find that 14 of the last 17 meetings between these teams have finished with 55 or fewer combined points. On defense, the Als have already limited a pair of top tier Western teams to just 16 and 27 points. (Both those games had o/u lines of 53) The 21.5 points per game that they are allowing ranks #1 in the CFL. The last time they faced Saskatchewan, the Als allowed only 12 points. Yes, the Rough Riders scored 46 points last week. However, 30 of them came in the second quarter (seven on a blocked punt, two on a safety) meaning that they only scored 16 points in the remaining three quarters. In fact, a closer look shows that Saskatchewan has scored just 12 combined points in the second half of its two games, none of them coming in the third quarter. The Saskatchewan defense has been producing plenty of turnovers, including five last week. Even with their first two games finishing about the total (o/u lines were 50 and 51.5) the Riders have still seen the UNDER go 13-7 the last 20 times that they were listed as underdogs of six points or less. I look for those stats to improve this afternoon as this first place showdown proves lower-scoring than many are expecting and the final combined score finds its way below the generous number. *TOM
Jake Timlin
800♦ Boston Red Sox
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Easiest call of the day, take the Red Sox as they continue to dominate Toronto.
Winner of 9 of the last 12 series meetings, including last night’s 4-1 win I love the Red Sox to continue their magic over the Bluejays today. Helping pave the way will be Penny who despite being winless in his last four starts the righty has been has given his club good innings posting a 3.71 ERA over his last three starts. Plus, let’s not overlook that Boston has won 6 of their last 7 games to quietly build the best record in the American League.
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Meanwhile helping out will be the Bluejays who have lost 13 of their last 16 games and 5 of the last 6 games started by Tallet who is fresh off a 3 inning 8 earned run loss last start out.
Let’s face it if Buckholz was able to dominate the Bluejays in his season debut last night then I don’t see Penny have much of a problem keeping Toronto down.
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Take the Red Sox big today north of the boarder.
All Boston!
Craig Davis
40 Dime - MARINERS (With Washburn and Ohka as listed pitchers)
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One play, one big winner today. We will ride the small momentum from last night's winning performance with a fairly big win this afternoon. Look back at my history... when I release just one play, I win more often than not. I've looked up and down this card and I just can't justify asking you to pay me to give you a selection that I don't have 100% confidence in. There was one play, however, that I feel you should step out on with absolute certainty... and that's the Seattle Mariners over Cleveland with Jarrod Washburn on the hill.
These two teams have met just twice so far this year, with each earning a win over the last two days. The difference? Starting pitching. Cliff Lee dominated the Mariners for seven innings Thursday as the Indians had no trouble earning a 4-1 home win. On Friday night, Felix Hernandez turned the tables, tossing 8 innings of 5-hit ball, striking out 8 in a 6-2 win for the Mariners.
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Today the M's have a chance to keep pace in the AL West if they can get by Tomo Ohka and the Indians. Yes, the Indians. Aside from Lee, Cleveland is really struggling to find some solid starting pitching... and that doesn't even take into account how poorly the bullpen has performed. This afternoon, the Indians throw Tomo Ohka back out on the hill in an attempt to stop the bleeding, but it's simply not going to happen. Ohka has been flat out awful this year, posting a 6.40 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in four game started. The funny thing about Ohka is that he's gone back and forth from the bullpen to the rotation and back and forth again. The Indians can't figure out what to do with him because they are so thin in the starting five. Ohka does better out of the 'pen, but they can't afford NOT to have him in the rotation. Ohka's ERA vs. Seattle (after only facing them twice in his career) is 5.73 (7 ERs in 11 IP) and he hasn't beaten them in either try. Nothing whatsoever tells me that's going to change today.
Washburn, on the other hand, has been absolutely sizzling hot recently and might actually be pitching better than Felix Hernandez. Washburn has allowed just one earned run in his last 16 innings of work and has pushed his record up to 6-6 after a very slow start to the season. For the season, Washburn 2.96 ERA
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th a WHIP barely above 1.00 and his strikeout to walk ratio is nearly 3:1. No matter if he was facing the Indians at home or on the road, they just don't have enough firepower on offense to put a scare into anyone.
Seattle is 5-1 in Washburn's last 6 starts and 5-2 in their last seven vs. a right-handed starter on the road. The Indians, meanwhile, are 1-4 in their last five vs. a lefty, 1-5 in their last six vs. a team with a winning record, and 0-4 in Ohka's last four starts. This one's easy... it's Washburn and the Mariners in an easy win.
Scott Spreitzer
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NL TOTAL OF THE YEAR! *21-5 Run!
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DBACKS / CARDINALS UNDER
STU FEINER
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PHILLIES @ MARLINS
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PHILLIES ARE ON A ROLL 6 STRAIGHT WINS, 9-1 THEIR LAST 10, AND 27-15 ON THE ROAD. THEY HAVE OPENED UP A 5 GAME LEAD ON FLORIDA AND LOOK TO EXTEND THAT TONIGHT. THE WORLD CHAMPS HAVE SHAKEN OFF A FIRST HALF MALIASE AND LOOK TO REPEAT. RIGHTY BLANTON WILL GET THE ROAD "W" TONIGHT. HE OWNS FLORIDA 3-0 LIFETIME AND 1-0 THIS YEAR. IN HIS LAST 19 INNINGS HE HAS BEEN LIGHTS OUT, 2-0 WITH AN ERA OF 1.89. ALL PHILLIES TONIGHT AS THEY BEAT THE MARLIN'S ACE.
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PHILLIES +120 FOR A 1000 DIME SELECTION
RatedPicks
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Chicago Cubs -125 3 units
Colorado Rockies -115 3 units
Chicago White Sox -155 *5 units
Chicago White Sox -1.5 (+140) 3 units
Matt Rivers
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MONSTER 100,000* NO-BRAINER Plus Bonus Lock
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1. 100,000♦ Mets
2. 50,000♦ Cubs (♦♦♦possible pitching change♦♦♦, stay with play as always!)
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1. Johan, Johan, Johan!
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Yes the Mets are too banged up to compete right now and are rather awful. I also know that Santana was lit up at Yankee Stadium and hit hard in Milwaukee a few weeks ago so there have been some issues on the road. There are also random rumors about the lefty not being 100%. But if you are going to give me a guy who is still a total stud and arguably the best hurler on the planet at this ridiculous dirt cheap price against a good but not great Braves squad then I am all for it, no matter how pathetic Jerry Manuel's club has been at times.
Kenshin Kawakami is pretty good and I don't see him getting blasted today but I do believe that David Wright and the fellas will rise up for their ace as they did in that last start when they crossed the plate four times in shutting out the Reds, 4-0. I am not thinking that New York will roll and all of a sudden just bust out because frankly the talent is not really there for that. Bu there is enough with Wright, Castillo, Francouer and a few others to score enough and watch Santana do his usual seven innings and one or two earned run outings.
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Look for another quality start from Johan and for K-Rod to notch another save as the New Yorkers pitch well enough to take care of business in a well pitched and well played 4-2 type fo a victory.
2. Jordan Zimmerman has the potential to be a future stud and as I have been saying for awhile now, the Nationals have more talent than their record indicates but to get the former All-Star in Ted Lilly and the far superior Cubs at this cheap price is too good to not give it a go.
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Washington does have talent with Ryan Zimmerman, Dunn, Guzman and a few others but all in all they are not up to par with Lee, Ramirez, Soriano, Fukudome and these visitors. Plus after Zimmerman is out of gas who comes in? The Washington bullpen is not good at all and even with Chicago's issues at times with guys like Marmol and Gregg it's the Cubbies who are still far superior with the relievers.
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The Nats have the upside to win this single random game, I will admit that, but they don't do it about half the time as the oddsmaker seems to believe constituting a bargain and a semi steal for us.
Karl Garrett
20 DIMER - PHILADELPHIA (Blanton over Johnson)
10 DIMER - TORONTO (Rzepczynski over Penny)
20 DIMER - PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (Blanton over Johnson)
Cole Hamels was crusing last night against Florida before the rains came and the Marlins caught a huge break. Even with that break the Phillies still won, and have now won their last 7, and 11 of 12. They have also dumped the Marlins in 6 of the 8 meetings this year, and 8 of the last 10 dating back to last season.Josh Johnson may be Florida's "stopper", but Joe Blanton has actually been just as tough of late, as both hurlers have gone 2-1 their last 3, Blanton's ERA at 1.83, while Johnson's a tad higher at 2.65.The way the Phillies went to the break, and picked right back up where they left off to start this week, G-Man thinks the value is all on the side of the visitor.
Take Philly once again to hand Florida with another loss.
10 DIMER - TORONTO BLUE JAYS (Rzepczynski over Penny) - 1:05 PM
I can't say his name too well, but I like what I have seen from Toronto's Marc Rzepczynski through his first couple of big league starts, and I will give him a shot this afternoon against Boston and Brad Penny.Penny has cooled off, as his is 0-1 over his last 3 starts, and the Sox have lost all 3 of those assignments. In fact, Penny is now 1-2 over his last 7 starts, and I have a feeling the struggling Blue Jays will get something going against the burly Boston hurler today.Boston has won their last 4, and they are 5-2 in this year's season series with Toronto. Penny did win his last start against the Jays back on May 20th, so turnabout is fair play in this one, go with the slumping Blue Jays to cool off the Red Sox.
Hot Services
http://www.thespread.com/forum/index.php?topic=64792.0
Scott Delaney
20 DIME DODGERS -1' RUNS (WITH Kershaw and Hampton) - Enough is enough with this losing, and just when everyone will think it’s time to jump on the Astros, er, on the against-Los Angeles bandwagon, I’m getting on the Dodgers in blowout fashion. I have to, as this is still the team with the best record in baseball, and this is a team that is in quintuple revenge at home against the Astros, after last night’s shellacking at Chavez Ravine.Tonight I am banking on Clayton Kershaw over Mike Hampton, who is making his first start against the Dodgers since May 14, 2005. He has a 4.59 ERA in 19 careers starts against the Dodgers and after watching that dismal display last night, I believe the men in blue will rock the southpaw from the game early. Houston has outscored the Dodgers 11-1 in the series while Los Angeles has gone 0-for-9 with runners in scoring position – trust me, they’re more than ready to explode for this one.I know I’m in good shape pitching-wise, as Kershaw has gone 4-0 with a 0.76 ERA over his last six outings. The Dodgers have won each time he’s been toed the slab, including last Sunday’s 7-4 victory in Milwaukee, where he allowed one run and two hits over six innings.
MR EAST
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PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES @ FLORIDA MARLINS
PLAY: FLORIDA MARLINS -120 FOR 3 UNITS
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Josh Johnson is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball, and he has led the Florida Marlins to a 14-5 mark in his 19 starts, while pitching to a 2.65 ERA. The Marlins are also 8-2 in his 10 home starts. Johnson has allowed more than 3 earned runs just 1 time, and not a single time at home has he allowed more than 3, and his ERA is 2.06 over the 10 home starts. Joe Blanton has pitched well of late, but on the season has a 4.21 ERA in 8 road starts, and the Phillies have dropped his last 4 starts as an underdog, while the Marlins are now 7-0 when Johnson takes the mound at home vs a team with a winning record. I'm going with the Marlins here.
Brandon Lang
10 Dime - Rangers (Feldman over Baker)
10 Dime - Mariners (Washburn over Ohka)
10 Dime - Dodgers Run Line (Kershaw over Hampton)
FREE - Rockies
Find Lang in the Red Section
KEVIN ROGERS
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Brewers at Reds
Pick: Brewers +115
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The Brewers look for a rebound effort tonight after getting shut out by Bronson Arroyo and the Reds on Friday, 4-0. Milwaukee is 4-1 this season after scoring zero runs in its last game, facing Aaron Harang tonight. Harang's record is just 5-9 this season, coming off a loss at the Mets in which he allowed eight hits and 5 ER in just 3 IP to a very mediocre offense. The Reds righty was racked in his earlier meeting with the Brewers this season at Miller Park, giving up 12 hits and 8 ER in 4.1 IP of a 9-5 loss. Manny Parra, meanwhile, has not been successful this season at 3-8. However, Parra spent time on the DL, then in the minors to find his control. Parra had a solid outing against the Cardinals before the All-Star Break, going seven scoreless innings, allowing three hits. The Brewers bullpen blew the game for Parra, but it seems like the lefty is regaining his confidence. The Reds are just 4-12 L16 after a win since June 1, and this team has failed to find consistency for nearly two months following a nice start. I'll take Milwaukee in this role as a road dog to beat Cincinnati.
igz1 sports
MLB
3* NY Mets -110 (Santana)
3* LA Angels -115 (Weaver)
3* Under 8 (-110) Chicago Cubs (Lilly) vs Washington (Zimmermann)
3* Texas -115 (Feldman)
Wunderdog
New York Mets at Atlanta
Pick: 3 units Atlanta -110
Street Rosenthal
*200 Pittsburgh Pirates -120
I look for the Pirates to take another win from the Giants tonight. Here are several reasons why. First, I have the Pirates are 31-11 SU since 2006 season as a favorite vs a team that has a better record. I also have the Pirates as 20-9 SU since 2004 season at home within 20 cents of pickem after a one run win and it is not the first game of a series. Finally, I have the Giants are 9-28 SU since 2006 season as a road dog off a loss in which they never led and it is not the first game of a series. Take the Pirates for another win.
Has 1 More 200 Unit Play