3G-Sports
10* AL Game of the Week: Boston RedSox +105
5* KC Royals +125
4* NY Mets -130
The Boston Red Sox face an uphill climb to return to the postseason, but a roster slowly regaining its health is making that climb look more realistic.
A healthy, rejuvenated Josh Beckett would be one of the biggest pieces to the puzzle.
Making his second start since coming off the disabled list, Beckett looks to lead the Red Sox to a three-game sweep of the Los Angeles Angels and a winning record on their 10-game road trip, which concludes Wednesday afternoon in Anaheim.
Beckett is a better pitcher on the road with fewer walks and his ERA is 1 full run lower.
I expect BOSTON to win this afternoon and get the 3-game sweep!
Sportbook Breakers
4.5* Mets
4* Dodgers
4* Indians
Tony George
SD Padres -115
Off a 2-0 loss on Tuesday and down 0-1 in this heated series, I expect the Pads at home to take this one tonight. If look at the Dodgers batting numbers the last 10 games, it is a wonder they are winning any games, at .198 against southpaws and just .217 against right handers their last 10 games. I have a hotter starter for the Pads at home tonight with less than a 3 ERA his last 3 games, a better hitting, and if LA goes to the bullpen and pulls out any lefties, the Pads are railing southpaws at .309 as a team the last 10. The Pads start a left hander pitcher with under a 4 ERA on the season tonight. Low scoring game again, but I like the Pads in a tight one at a cheap number in a game they want to win. Play 1 Unit on the Padres.
Marc Lawrence
LA Angels -110
When the Angels host the Red Sox in the 3rd and final game of the series in Los Angeles this afternoon they will send Joel Pineiro to the hill against Josh Beckett in a matchup of right-handers going in opposite directions. Pineiro enters the game 8-1 in his last nine team starts and 8-0 in his last eight team starts in this park. He is also 8-1 his last nine team starts during July, including 4-0 his last four. On the flip side, Beckett has been literally dodging bullets of late, going 4-2 in his last six team starts despite a 7.37 ERA in those efforts. Beckett is also 0-6 with a 6.00 ERA in his last six team starts against the Halos. Look for the better arm to win here this afternoon. We recommend a 3-unit play on the Angels.
JR O'Donnell
2* Braves / Nationals Under 8
Let's go under 8 tonight as the Nats are not scoring right now , Bravos hurler Tim Hudson who is a powerful 10-5 over all and a 2.47 ERA will stymie the Nat's, The Braves are on a major Under run here , going 9-1 the last 10 under and we will ride that trend as they are a flat out UNDER MACHINE. The Nat's will roll out Livian Hernandez as the Nat's pitching staff has done surprising well. Hernandez is 7-6 over all and a smooth 3.10 ERA. Let's roll out another huge winner tonight on the Under . Livian Hernandez is 7-2-1 in Under is the last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record
King Creole
3* Braves / Nationals 7.5
Ingredients for a 3* or higher BEST BET from King Creole: Low-scoring series history tendencies.... TWO starting pitchers in top-notch current form.... and a Home Plate UMPIRE with extreme OU results over a long period of time.
Working behind the dish tonight in Washington DC will be BILL MILLER. He's one of only FIVE Umpires who has gone 'UNDER the TOTAL' at a 70% or higher percentage on the season. Just like last night's 'UNDER' winner (James Hoye). Not only does Miller have strong 'Under' tendencies this year... but in his career as well. In the last 2+ seasons, he is the NUMBER ONE (#1) 'Under' Umpire in all of Baseball. When a guy goes 17-47-4 O/U over a long period if time (like Miller), those results are not a fluke. 73% Unders (or Overs for that matter) over a long period of time is a fantastic and predictable aspect that can only help a sharp bettor.
Overall on the 2010 season, MILLER comes in with a 6-16 O/U record. Those numbers are solid, but check out his RECENT results: Miller has gone a PERFECT 0-7 O/U in the last 5 weeks! Average total runs score during his 7-game 'Under' streak is only 5.4. The last game that he worked that went 'Over' was back on June 17th. In National League games, he has gone 2-8 O/U on the year as well. And on WEDNESDAYS, he has gone 0-4-2 O/U.
Last season for Miller: 16-39-3 O/U... and 9-17-1 O/U in Senior Circuit games...
Last 2 years for Miller: 29-61-6 O/U... and 12-29-4 O/U in Senior Circuit games...
Last 3 years for Miller: 43-81-7 O/U... and 18-40-5 O/U in Senior Circuit games.
In games involving tonight's two opponents, his numbers are also strong. He's gone 3-11 O/U in all Atlanta Brave games in the last 5 years.... and 0-2 O/U in the 2010 season since early May (5.0 total runs per game). He's also gone a PERFECT 0-5 O/U in career TIM HUDSON starts. in Washington National HOME games, Miller has gone 1-3 O/U in the last 2 seasons.
With yesterday's Game One of this series going 'UNDER"... that makes the Atlanta / Washington series 1-4-2 O/U so far in 2010.... and 4-12-3 O/U dating back to last season.
In the last 10 games, both teams are hitting significantly WORSE against right-handed pitching. ATLANTA: .254 vs righties (and .303 vs lefties). WASHINGTON: .238 vs righties (and .263 vs lefties).
Two SHARP starters in top-notch current form seals the deal.
TIM HUDSON just threw 7 SHUTOUT innings in his last start. His ERA is only 2.47 on the seasons. He's had TWICE as many "Unders" in his night starts as "Overs". He pitched against the Nats as recently as 4 weeks ago. In that game (a 5-0 win), he went 7 innings... allowed ZERO earned runs.. and only 5 hits. In fact, his ERA is 1.28 on the season against Washington. And in his last 10 starts vs them, he has allowed 2 or less earned runs NINE times in the last 3 seasons.
LIVIAN HERNANDEZ is also on a roll. He allowed only ONE earned run in EACH of his last two starts. That's an ERA of only 1.20. So far in his team HOME starts this year, he has gone "Under the Total" NINE times (1-9 O/U!). His lone 2010 start vs the Braves resulted in only ONE earned run allowed back in early May. He's gone 0-7-2 O/U in his last 9 starts versus fellow division opponents.
ROCKETMAN
4* Oak +145
3* SF -140
BOB VALENTINO
RL PUNISHER
40 DIME Phillies -1.5
JEFF BENTON
20 DIME NEW YORK METS
That said, as great as Garcia (9-4, 2.21 ERA) has been this year, the Cardinals are just 10-9 when he toes the rubber, including 5-5 on the road. Also, St. Louis has been extremaly careful with Garcia, who has pitched six innings or fewer in 13 of his 19 starts. And prior to a 5-1 win over the Phillies exactly a week ago – he allowed four hits and one run in seven innings, and I cashed a 15 Dime run-line winner – Garcia had pitched a total of 8 2/3 in his previous two starts.
The point: Don’t expect to see Garcia go deep into this game, and St. Louis’ bullpen has been highly inconesistent all season.
You know who hasn’t been highly inconsistent lately? Johan Santana. Over his last five starts, the Mets’ lefty has given up a grand total of three runs in 38 innings. I’ll do the math for you: That’s a 0.71 ERA over a five-start stretch. Santana’s incredible recent surge began with the Mets losing 2-1 at Washington, but since then, New York has won four in a row behind Santana. That includes back-to-back 3-0 home victories over the Reds and Braves. Santana numbers in those two contests: 16 innings pitched, eight hits, six walks, 10 strikeouts, no runs allowed.
Santana is 6-3 with a 2.81 ERA in 10 starts at Citi Field (the Mets are 7-3), and he’s 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA in four career starts against St. Louis. That includes a start back on April 17 at Busch Stadium when Santana pitched seven innings of four-hit shutout ball, walking one and whiffing nine in a game New York won 2-1 in 20 innings (Garcia pitched opposite Santana in that one).
A few final points to make: Since ripping off eight straight wins from the Sunday prior to the All-Star break through Garcia’s gem last Wednesday, the Cardinals have dropped four of their last five. St. Louis has also hardly been a road warrior recently, dropring 15 of 22 on the highway. On the other hand, the Mets have one of the best home records in baseball at 31-16, including 27-11 in the last 38.
Also, St. Louis is in slumps of 1-4 vs. lefty starters, 3-13 as a road underdog and 1-10 as a short underdog (+110 to +150, all on the road), while the Mets have won 15 of Santana’s last 21 starts against the N.L. Central and nine of 10 at home against left-handed starters (they bat nearly .300 as a team when facing lefties at home).
Lastly, the home team is on an 11-3 roll in this rivalry, with St. Louis dropping six of eight in New York.
Street Rosenthal
*200 San Francisco Giants -152
*200 Chicago White Sox -162
Executive
250% SD Padres
ATS LOCK CLUB
4 Units Boston Red Sox +100
4 Units New York Mets -120
ANTHONY REDD
80 Dime Chicago White Sox -1.5
ROCKETMAN
3* SF -140
San Francisco is 17-7 in the month of July this year. San Francisco is 37-15 last 3 years as a home favorite of -125 to -150. San Francisco has won 10 of their last 13 games overall. Florida is scoring only 3.9 runs per game against left handed starters this year. San Francisco bullpen has a 3.21 ERA overall this year and a 2.23 ERA at home on the season. Jonathan Sanchez has a 3.35 ERA overall this year and a 3.00 ERA at home this season. San Francisco has won 4 out of 5 meetings with Florida this year. We'll play San Francisco for 3 units tonight!
AL DeMARCO
DOG OF THE MONTH
15 DIME Chicago White Sox -1.5
BONUS PLAY
5 DIME Philadelphia Phillies -1.5