SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
San Francisco (7-2) at L.A. Dodgers (4-5)
Two of the fiercest rivals in baseball hook up for the first time in 2010, as the Dodgers’ Vicente Padilla (0-1, 11.42 ERA) is slated to oppose Todd Wellemeyer (0-1, 5.68) at Dodger Stadium.
San Francisco is off to a torrid start and dating to last year, the team has won 13 of 16 overall and four straight on the road. The Giants took Thursday off after wrapping up a six-game homestand with a 6-0 rout of the Pirates, and they opened the season with a three-game road sweep of the Astros, outscoring Houston 18-6. Additionally, Bruce Bochy’s team is on runs of 14-3 in series openers, 6-1 against the N.L. West, 9-1 versus right-handed starters (5-0 on the road) and 6-2 on Friday.
Los Angeles finished up a three-game home series against Arizona with Thursday’s thrilling 6-5 10-inning victory. The Dodgers rallied from deficits of 3-0 and 5-3, scoring two runs in the bottom of the ninth to tie it at 5, then Andre Ethier drove in the game-winner with a one-out RBI single in the 10th. Going back to last year’s National League Championship Series loss to the Phillies, the Dodgers have dropped eight of 12, but nine of those games were on the road. They remain on positive runs of 7-2 at home, 6-1 at home against right-handed starters and 5-1 when Padilla faces N.L. West squads.
The Dodgers went 11-7 against San Francisco in 2009, and after the home team won the first four meetings, the visitor took eight of the final 14.
Wellemeyer, who spent three full seasons with the Cardinals from 2007-2009, pitched 6 1/3 innings in his Giants debut Saturday, giving up four runs on seven hits in taking a 7-2 loss. Going back to last July with St. Louis, Wellemeyer has given up 23 earned runs in his last five starts covering just 24 1/3 innings (8.51 ERA), and his teams lost four of the five contests.
Wellemeyer has made six appearances (one start) against the Dodgers, giving up six runs in 12 2/3 innings (4.26 ERA). The one start came at Dodger Stadium in 2008, and the right-hander surrendered three runs on five hits in six innings, losing 4-3.
Padilla pitched the Dodgers to a pair of playoff victories over the Cardinals and Phillies last October, but in his past three starts (one in the playoffs, two to begin this season), the veteran right-hander has given up 17 runs (all earned) on 18 hits (five home runs) in 11 2/3 innings. The Dodgers lost all three games (all on the road) after winning seven of his first nine starts after Padilla joined the Dodgers in late August.
Including one playoff game, Padilla was 2-0 with a 2.78 ERA in four starts at Dodger Stadium last year. He’s also 5-3 with a 3.86 ERA in 11 career appearances (nine starts) against San Francisco, including 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA in two starts last year.
San Francisco is 3-1-1 “under” in its last five on the road, but otherwise it is on “over” tears of 5-1-1 overall, 12-5-1 against division rivals, 4-0 after a day off, 8-1-2 in series openers, 5-1-2 versus right-handed starters and 4-1 on Friday. Likewise, Los Angeles is on a slew of “over” runs, including 22-8-2 overall, 9-3-1 at home (3-0 this season), 10-3-1 versus N.L. West foes, 6-0 against right-handed starters, 5-0-1 in series openers and 7-2-1 with Padilla starting.
Finally, the last six Giants-Dodgers battles last year – and the last four clashes in Los Angeles – hurdled the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Tampa Bay (6-3) at Boston (4-5)
The Red Sox return to Fenway Park following a six-game road trip, and they’ll hand the ball to ace Josh Beckett (1-0, 6.17) to open this four-game series against the Rays, who will counter with rookie Wade Davis (0-1, 6.00).
Tampa Bay is coming off a three-game sweep of the Orioles, finishing it with Wednesday’s 9-1 rout as it outscored Baltimore 22-8 in the series. The Rays, who have won four in a row on the highway since last year, are on positive runs of 12-5 overall, 15-5 against the A.L. East, 36-16 on Friday, and 5-0 when opening a series. However, they’ve lost four of five after an off day and 13 of 18 on the road against right-handed starters.
Boston completed its road trip with Thursday’s 8-0 loss to the Twins, losing two of three in the series after taking two of three in Kansas City last weekend. The Red Sox opened 2010 with three home games against the hated Yankees, winning the first but losing the next two. They’ve still won 56 of 82 at Fenway Park, though they’re just 1-8 in their last nine against A.L. East foes.
These teams split their 18-game season series last year, but Boston won the last four in a row. Also, the Rays have lost 53 of their last 69 games at Fenway Park.
Davis gave up four runs on seven hits and four walks in six innings against the Yankees on Saturday, as Tampa Bay got bombed 10-0 at home. The 24-year-old right-hander made six starts down the stretch in 2009, including an ugly 9-1 loss at Fenway Park in which he yielded eight runs on six hits and four walks in just 2 2/3 innings. However, he followed that five days later with his only other road outing to date, a complete-game 3-0 shutout at Baltimore.
Beckett lasted just 4 2/3 innings in his Fenway debut against the Yankees on April 4 (five runs, eight hits allowed), and followed that with Saturday’s 8-3 win at Kansas City as he scattered three runs on nine hits in seven innings. With Beckett on the mound, Boston is on runs of 4-1 overall, 14-3 at home, 13-4 against the A.L. East, 7-0 in series openers and 8-3 on Friday.
The Red Sox are also 6-1 in Beckett’s last seven starts against the Rays, against whom the right-hander is 7-4 with a 3.68 ERA in 15 career outings. Last year, Beckett went 2-1 with 5.02 ERA in five starts versus Tampa Bay, but 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in three games at home.
Tampa Bay is on “over” runs of 5-1 overall (all versus the A.L. East), 5-1 on the road, 4-0 on Friday and 7-3 in series openers. Also, Boston has topped the total in four of five at home and five of six against the A.L. East, and with Beckett working, the Sox are on “over” surges of 4-1 overall, 7-1 at home, 6-0 within the division and 5-0 in series openers. However, four of Beckett’s last five outings versus the Rays have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and OVER
DUNKEL INDEX
LA Angels at Toronto
The Angels look to build on their 9-1 record in Jered Weaver's last 10 starts with the total set from 7 1/2 to 9 runs. LA is the pick (-110) according to Dunkel, which has the Angels favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-110)
Game 951-952: Houston at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Paulino) 13.904; Cubs (Silva) 14.574
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-180); No Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-180); N/A
Game 953-954: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Leake) 14.626; Pittsburgh (Duke) 14.082
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-110); Under
Game 955-956: Milwaukee at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 14.804; Washington (Lannan) 15.022
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+140); Over
Game 957-958: Florida at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Sanchez) 14.674; Philadelphia (Halladay) 16.567
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 2; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-250); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-250); Under
Game 959-960: Colorado at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Hammel) 14.803; Atlanta (Lowe) 15.554
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-130); Over
Game 961-962: NY Mets at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Perez) 15.033; St. Louis (Carpenter) 14.776
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-250); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+210); Under
Game 963-964: Arizona at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Jackson) 15.288; San Diego (Garland) 14.180
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Arizona (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-115); Under
Game 965-966: San Francisco at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Wellemeyer) 15.969; LA Dodgers (Padilla) 15.736
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+130); Over
Game 967-968: Texas at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Wilson) 15.484; NY Yankees (Sabathia) 16.335
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 10
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-210); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-210); Over
Game 969-970: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Buehrle) 15.624; Cleveland (Talbot) 14.191
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-140); Under
Game 971-972: LA Angels at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 16.104; Toronto (Marcum) 14.878
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-110); Under
Game 973-974: Tampa Bay at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Davis) 15.726; Boston (Beckett) 15.599
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-185); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+165); Under
Game 975-976: Kansas City at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Greinke) 15.490; Minnesota (Baker) 16.676
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-130); Over
Game 977-978: Baltimore at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Millwood) 14.450; Oakland (Braden) 14.779
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Oakland (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-150); Under
Game 979-980: Detroit at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Bonderman) 15.185; Seattle (Hernandez) 14.321
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Seattle (-180); 7
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+160); Over
NHL
Ottawa at Pittsburgh
The Penguins look to rebound from their 5-4 loss in Game One and build on their 9-2 record in their last 11 games after allowing 5 goals or more in the previous game. Pittsburgh is the pick (-260) according to Dunkel, which has the Penguins favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-260)
Game 65-66: Nashville at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 12.529; Chicago 12.156
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-250); 5
Dunkel Pick: Nashville (+210); Over
Game 67-68: Ottawa at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 11.189; Pittsburgh 11.939
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-260); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-260); Under
Game 69-70: Philadelphia at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 12.165; New Jersey 12.974
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1; 4
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-190); 5
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (-190); Under
Game 71-72: Detroit at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 11.909; Phoenix 13.111
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-135); 5
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+115); Under
Game 73-74: Colorado at San Jose
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 11.193; San Jose 12.179
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-270); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-270); Under
Marc Lawrence
Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels
The Angels open a three-game series with the Blue Jays when Jered Weaver takes the mound Friday evening in Toronto. Weaver has enjoyed great success in this series as evidenced by his 5-1 career team start mark with a 2.77 ERA. He's also cashed six of his last seven team starts during the opening month of April. The bottom line is it ain't broke and we're not going to fix it. Back the Halos here tonight.
Cajun Sports
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Cincinnati Reds
The Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates open a three-game weekend set on Friday night with the first pitch set for 7:05PM EST. The Reds come into this series with a 5-4 record including 2-1 on the road and 2-0 versus left-handed starters. Over their last seven games they have a record of 5-2. Their offense on the road has been solid averaging 6.3 runs per game with a .254 batting average. When facing left-handed starters they average 6.5 runs per game with a batting average of .274 on the year. Reds starter Mike Leake will be making his first start versus the Pirates he has a 1-0 record this year and an ERA of 1.35. The Pirates enter tonight’s contest with a record of 4-5 on the season including a record of 2-1 at home and 3-3 versus right-handed starters. Over their last seven outings they are only 2-5 straight up averaging 5.7 runs with a batting average of .262. The Pirates bullpen has struggled with a 5.94 ERA overall and an ERA of 6.75 when playing at PNC Park. Pittsburgh will send Zach Duke to the bump with his 3.00 ERA and 2-0 record this season. Duke has had trouble with the Reds over the years going 3-6 with an ERA of 4.37. The Pirates are 14-46 (-31.8 Units) versus a national league team with an on base percentage of .325 or worse over the last two years. The Pirates are 17-35 their last 52 (Duke’s starts) times to post versus the NL Central and 16-36 their last 52 starts versus teams with a winning record on the year. Finally we have a system from the database that tells us to Play AGAINST MLB NL teams who have a batting average of =4.50. We will back the better overall team here with technical and situational support on our side so take the Reds on Thursday night as they grab game one in Pittsburgh.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Cincinnati Reds 5 Pittsburgh Pirates
Rob Vinciletti
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins
The Twins are reasonably priced tonight in this series opener against the Royals. The pitching matchup features Z.Greinke for the Royals and S.Baker for the Twins. The perception is that the Royals have a big edge here. However Greinke is just 3-8 vs the Twins and was less than impressive against the Twins in a road start back in October allowing 4 earned runs in 6 innings. The Twins S.Baker has pitched real well vs the Royals with a 7-3 record and a solid 3.16 era. He won his last 2 starts vs the Royals and should do well vs this lineup once again. KC. is a terrible 14-38 on Friday nights while the Twins are 37-16 on Fridays. Minnesota has been a terrific home favorite in this range. The Royals have lost all 3 games this season following a win. Look for the Twins to take game 1 as a modest favorite.
BIG AL
Colorado @ Atlanta
PICK: Over 8.5
Jason Hammel will get the ball for the Rockies, and he brings a 5.14 ERA into this game. Even worse, his career stats vs. the Braves are a dismal 0-1 with an 8.00 ERA in two starts! Hammel's mound opponent will be veteran righty Derek Lowe, and Lowe has also fared worse vs. the Rockies than against other teams in his career, with a 4.33 ERA. Lowe's ERA on this young season is 4.50, so this has all the makings of a high-scoring game, especially when one considers that Colorado is averaging 6 runs per game vs. right-handed starters this season, while the Braves are plating 5.4 runs per game vs. righties. With five of the last six meetings between these clubs in Atlanta going 'over' the total, we'll look for another high-scoring game here.
Jim Feist
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: San Francisco Giants +136
The Giants are an underdog again, despite a sizzling 7-2 start sitting in first place in the NL West. They are also 3-0 on the road. The improved offense gets a chance to tee-off LA starter Vicente Padilla, an aging, below average arm with an 11.42 ERA. He has allowed 18 base runners in 8 innings with opponents hitting .359 off him! Tough to back a favorite with those kind of stats. Play the Giants.
EZWINNERS
Chicago White Sox -140
The White Sox starting pitcher Mark Buehrle is off to a solid start this season. The lefty Buehrle was a 6-0 winner on opening day against these Indians and followed that up with another strong performance in a win against Minnesota in his second start. The Tribe sends Mitch Talbot to the mound to make his fifth career big league start and second of this season. Talbot is a young pitcher learning on the fly in the major leagues and that means there will be some bright spots and a lot of bad spots in his performances. Talbot gave up four runs, six hits and walked five batter in five innings in his first start this season and I expect the White Sox to have success against him here today. I don't expect the Indians to be able to provide much run support for Talbot because they do not hit lefties very well at all. Cleveland is only 1-11 in their last twelve start against south paws dating back to last season and I don't expect them to win this game today. Play on Chicago.
Brad Diamond Sports
Play Arizona over San Diego
The D’Backs are coming off a difficult series on the road versus the Dodgers in LA. However, we look for Arizona take this set in San Diego with the help of hurler Edwin Jackson. The Snakes are 4-1 in this series and 4-0 in their four battles facing right hand hurlers. In addition, the home standing Padres show with a horrid 3-8 mark in game #1 of a series and 3-7 when facing teams with a plus .600 win mark. Garland finished last season at 8-11 with 4.29 ERA as a San Diego starter. But, what is even more disconcerting is the 1.80 WHIP he now via the stat sheet. His WHIP has increased each year over the last three campaigns.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Baltimore Orioles at Oakland Athletics
The Baltimore Orioles are 1-9 through the first 10 games of the season and things do not get any easier tonight when they face the Oakland Athletics. Oakland has dominated this series going 7-0 at home against Baltimore over the past three seasons and 11-1 overall. Last night Ben Sheets pitched six scoreless innings for the A’s in a 6-2 victory over the O’s. Tonight they will have youngster Dallas Braden on the mound. Braden has looked good in the early going allowing just four earned runs in 13 innings of work and he has had some success against Baltimore with a 3-1 TSR and a 1.44 ERA in 25 innings. Take the A’s here once again.
Play on: Oakland Athletics
Tony George
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins
Many are going to say KC's bullpen will blow it again, and while Zach has looked solid this year, his bullpen let him down, and no doubt along the way, KC will have issues blowing games late. That being said, KC off a solid series against Detroit winning the series 2-1. The Royals also found some bats and offense along the way and they will need it in this series to contend.
All those nice things said about my hometown Royals does little to sway me away from Minnesota here. They have OWNED the Royals winning 8 out of the last 9, and have a great home field advantage winning 12 out of their last 15 games. The bats of Minny also are a huge concern against KC, although KC has the stronger numbers on offense with batting avergae as a team, I do not see KC winning back to back road games in 2 different cities in 2 days, and honestly Baker will give them issues. Look no farther than the bullpen numbers, Minny's bullpen under a 3 ERA and Kansas Citys 7.31. Enough Said.
Rocketman
Detroit Red Wings vs. Phoenix Coyotes
Play: Detroit Red Wings -130
Detroit blew the 1st game of this series and now trails 1-0. Detroit is now 19-8 SU at Phoenix since 1996. Red Wings are 9-1 in their last 10 games playing on 1 days rest. Red Wings are 6-1 in their last 7 Conference Quarterfinals games. Red Wings are 5-1 in their last 6 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. Red Wings are 5-1 in their last 6 Friday games. Red Wings are 9-2 in their last 11 playoff games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Red Wings are 9-2 in their last 11 vs. Western Conference. Red Wings are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Red Wings are 7-2 in their last 9 vs. a team with a winning record. Red Wings are 10-3 in their last 13 overall. Red Wings are 36-15 in their last 51 playoff games as a favorite. Red Wings are 67-28 in their last 95 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game. Red Wings are 7-3 in their last 10 road games. Red Wings are 245-120 in their last 365 games as a favorite. Coyotes are 2-5 in their last 7 games as an underdog. Coyotes are 3-11 in their last 14 Conference Quarterfinals games. Red Wings are 13-4-3 in the last 20 meetings in Phoenix. Red Wings are 24-8-6 in the last 38 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Detroit tonight!
Tom Stryker
LAA Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: LAA Angels
Resting uncomfortably in the cellar of the AL West with a surprising 3-7 SU record, Los Angeles needs to crank things up a notch against the AL East leading Toronto Blue Jays.
The Angels will send their ace Jered Weaver to the mound tonight to try and stop the bleeding. In two starts for the Halos this season, the Long Beach State product has been right on target allowing only four earned runs and nine hits in 12.0 innings of work. Jered has issued only three free passes and fanned 13 in the process. Against the Jays, No. 36 has found plenty of success too en route to a 5-1 record and noteworthy 3.00 ERA in six career starts.
Toronto will counter with No. 28 Shaun Marcum. In 2009, the former Southwest Missouri State hurler underwent Tommy John surgery and missed the entire season. Shaun has returned to face Texas and Baltimore in two starts this year and looked solid surrendering just five earned runs and 10 hits in 13.0 frames.
It's never easy fading Toronto's Marcum at the Roger Centre. Fortunately, Shaun has dropped seven of his last eight starts against teams from the American League West. Meanwhile, the Angels have posted a "W" in 21 of Jered's last 29 starts. Take LA with listed pitcher Weaver.
Craig Trapp
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: San Francisco Giants +138
Hard to imagine that one of the hottest teams in MLB are this big of an underdog. Wellmeyer takes the mound for SF today trying to keep up the great string of pitching that SF has put up early this season. Padilla takes the mound for the LAD for the 3rd time this year. His first two outting he did not make it to the 5th inning giving up 11 runs. Just as bad the bullpen for the LAD has been very shaky giving up at least one HR in the last three games with a 5.81 ERA. Bad combination here as Padilla will not go deep and the bullpen will be beat up again. SF hitters are on fire nearly hitting .300 as a team. This SF team is built on pitching and defense but now are hot at the plate too. Way too much here, and great value take the underdog GIANTS!
Tom Freese
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Chicago White Sox
Chicago starter Mark Buehrle is 59-27 his last 86 games as a favorite. The White Sox are 28-13 their last 41 games vs. a team with win percentage of the less than 40%. Buehrle is 12-4 in game one of series. The White Sox are 5-1 in Game 1 of series. Cleveland his 16-35 their last 51 games as an underdog and they are 3-8 off a win. The Indians are 1-10 when playing game one of series and they are 7-22 vs. a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15. The Tribe are 1-10 their last 11 games vs. lefty starters. PLAY ON CHICAGO