MTi Sports
Baltimore Orioles at Oakland Athletics
Prediction: Oakland Athletics
The Athletics are 8-0 as a favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last three games and 7-0 as a home favorite when they are off a win in which they never trailed and it is not the first game of a series. The Orioles are 0-8 on the road after allowing 6+ runs and losing. Take the A's.
BEN BURNS
Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs
PICK: Chicago Cubs -177
The Astros finally managed a win yesterday. However, they're still an ugly 1-8 on the season, going 5-24 their last 29, dating back to last season. Conversely, while they lost yesterday, the Cubs are still 2-1 here at Wrigley. Arguably, the biggest difference between these teams so far is that the Cubs can hit (at least at home) while the Astros cannot.
Chicago comes in averaging 7.3 runs per game here at home, batting .337 and with an on-base-percentage of .400. On the other hand, the Astros are averaging two runs per game on the road, while hitting .215.
Paulino goes for Houston and he allowed four runs in just five innings in his first start. The Astros lost that one by a score of 9-6.
Silva takes the mound for the Cubs and while he's off a tough couple of years, with his "personal life now in order," he's off to a great start here in Chicago. He allowed just three hits and one run through six complete innings in his debut with the Cubs.
With the Cubs at 95-65 in afternoon games the past couple of seasons, if you can get a line of less than -180, consider laying the wood.
LARRY NESS
Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates
PICK: Pittsburgh Pirates -110
The Reds went 13-5 against Pittsburgh last season but I want no part of them tonight against Zach Duke. Duke is starting to show signs of being the pitcher who 'EXPLODED' on the scene back in 2005, going 8-2 with a 1.81 ERA for the Pirates in 2005. It's been a terrible four-year stretch since then for the promising lefty, who's gone 29-53 (.354) with a 4.60 ERA in 116 starts. Breaking it down, Pittsburgh was an awful 42-74 (.362) in all his starts but it should be noted that the Pirates actually were above .500 in his home starts (29-28), compared to going a dreadful 13-46 (.220) in his road starts. Duke is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA to open 2010, reminding Pirate fans of his 6-4 (2.62 ERA) start through the first two months of 2009. Can he keep it up? Maybe not but I'll back him here vs Cincy rookie Mike Leake, who is coming off his much-publicized major league debut. Leake became just the 21st player since the draft began in 1965 to play in the majors without appearing in a minor league game. He allowed just one ER and four hits over 6.2 innings in last Sunday's win over the Cubs but he also issued SEVEN walks! He better be able to give the Reds innings, as the team's relief staff has logged 16.2 innings over the last four games and takes a bullpen ERA of 5.18 into tonight's contest. I'm willing to buck the phenom and go with the Pirates for a small play in this one.
SEAN MURPHY
Florida Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies
The price on this game might be too steep to consider it as a stand-alone play, but it should certainly be considered a solid addition to any parlay.
Roy Halladay is as focused as any pitcher in baseball this season. He's been magnificent in his first two starts as a member of the Phillies, allowing just 13 hits and one earned run while striking out 17 and walking only two over 16 innings of work. He's coming off a complete game victory over the Astros last Sunday, and he needed only 111 pitches to do so. In fact, going back to last season, he's gone the distance in five of his last eight starts. I don't believe that the Marlins are the team to knock him out of the zone.
Anibal Sanchez counters for Florida. He wasn't all that sharp in his season debut, allowing seven hits and four earned runs over six innings in an eventual 6-5 Marlins win over the Dodgers. He did pitch well in two September starts against the Phillies last season, giving up only seven hits and one earned run over 15 innings of work. However, prior to those two starts, he had gone winless in five previous outings against Philadelphia. The Marlins lost those games by a combined 33-18 margin.
The Marlins have really faced just one premier starting pitcher this season, and that was Johan Santana back on Opening Day. They didn't accomplish much in that game, collecting only four hits off of Santana in six innings in an eventual 7-1 loss. I don't expect them to fare much better against Roy Halladay tonight. Take Philadelphia.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Arizona Diamondbacks -106
Bottom Line: Jackson lost his first start of the season to San Diego, and I expect that to serve as motivation tonight. Plus, Arizona has hit the ball very well in the early part of the season, averaging 6.7 runs per game. Arizona's sticks should give them the edge against a Padres' club only scoring 4.3 runs per game. The D-backs have proven to be a very resilient team as they are a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 games following a loss. The Padres are just 11-24 in their last 35 games as a home underdog and only 1-4 in their last 5 with the D-backs. We'll take Arizona tonight.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Atlanta Braves -130
First off, the Rockies are only 8-20 in their last 28 meetings in Atlanta. Secondly, with the total set at just 8.5 runs, odds makers are expecting a lower scoring game. This is significant because Hammel is a high ERA pitcher needing plenty of run support to get wins. Based on this total, I'd say the odds makers don't think he'll get it tonight. In fact, the Rockies are 0-6 in Hammel's last 6 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Meanwhile, the Braves are 5-0 in Lowe's last 5 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. They are also an impressive are 8-1 in Lowe's last 9 starts as a home favorite. The sinkerballer has shut down two of Colorado's top hitters, limiting Brad Hawpe to one hit in 12 at-bats since 2008, and holding Troy Tulowitzki to a .235 batting average. Hawpe may not even go tonight due to a quadricep injury and Todd Helton could miss as well. We'll take the Braves here.
Joseph D'Amico
Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves -133
Both teams are a respectable 5-4 on the season. Colorado is just 1-2 on the road while Atlanta is 2-1 at home. They split their 8 meetings a season ago. There are two major differences that separate these two teams in this matchup today. The first is pitching. Colorado has Jason Hammel on the bump. The right-hander is 0-0 in 7.0 IP, with a 5.14 ERA on the season. Over his career, Hammel is 0-1 when starting against Atlanta with an ERA of 8.00. For Atlanta, Derek Lowe gets the nod. Lowe is already 2-0 on the season, with an ERA of 4.50. In his lifetime, the right-hander is 8-7 when starting vs. Colorado, with an ERA of 4.33. Lowe has a lot of momentum and a ton of confidence in this team. The second thing that tells me that Atlanta will win today is injuries. Colorado has 3 starters listed as questionable. RF Brad Hawpe left the game the other day with tightness in his quadriceps. 1B Todd Helton did not play in Thursday’s game due to the flu and is likely to sit out today for rest. Lastly, CF Carlos Gonzales has missed the L2 games with tightness in his hamstring. Rumors have it that he will be placed on the DL. These injuries will hurt the Rockie’s not just in the field but at the plate. Colorado is 8-20 their L28 games played in Atlanta, 5-11 their L16 as a road ‘dog, and 1-4 in Hammel’s L5 starts vs. teams with a winning record. Atlanta is 14-5 their L19 games following a win, 17-8 their L25 vs. RH starters, and 8-1 in Lowe’s L9 as a home favorite. Take the Brave’s
SPORTS WAGERS
Cincinnati +1.03 over PITTSBURGH
Mike Leake was selected by the Cincinnati Reds out of Arizona State University in the 1st round (No. 8 overall) of the June 2009 First-Year Player Draft and received a $2.7 million signing bonus. He made his season debut last week against the Cubbies and went 6.2 innings and allowed just four hits and one earned run. However, he walked seven batters and struck out just five and threw 107 pitches before he was yanked. The seven walks are alarming but don’t put too much weight on it. He was really being squeezed by the HP ump and had total control over his pitches but wasn’t getting the calls. This kid is the real deal and has an assortment of quality pitches with some outstanding movement on all of them. There is no substitute for watching the games, as the reports are not always accurate and that’s the case with leak and his seven walks. He’ll face Zach Duke and anyone that has ever watched Duke pitch knows he’s very hittable indeed. These Reds have seen plenty of him and in fact, Duke went 1-4 last year against the Reds with a 4.65 ERA and even that is a little misleading, as the Reds hit a collective .311 against him. Duke’s career BAA is .301 and his 2-0 record this season means absolutely nothing because he’s just not that good and the losses will start piling up just like they did last season after another 2-0 start. Play: Cincinnati +1.03 (Risking 2 units).
Kansas City +1.16 over MINNESOTA (1st 5 innings)
When you wager on the Royals you must play them in the first five innings because of a flammable bullpen and you can triple that when Zack Greinke is throwing. Greinke was a little shaky by his standards in his season debut but was a lot sharper in his second start of the year. He’ll now pitch in his third start and you can expect a Greinke-like performance. He’s still struck out nine and walked just one batter in 12.2 innings and that reveals his command is as sharp as ever. Greinke can be counted on to throw at least five strong innings in just about every start he makes and this year he should get a lot more run support. The Royals are scoring runs and they lead the AL with a .307 team batting average. They’ll see Scott Baker here, another one of those very average pitchers that offer up very little as the chalk. In Bakers two starts this year, he’s gotten just nine outs on the ground while 29 outs have come via the fly ball and that’s a sign that he’s been very fortunate thus far. Based on his command and fly ball rate, Baker’s expected ERA (xERA) is 5.60. So, chop this up any way you want but this is a must play in the first five innings, as we fully expect to get the money here. Play: Kansas City in the first five innings +1.16 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago –1½ +1.26 over CLEVELAND
Mark Talbot has made four appearances in the majors, two as a starter and two in relief. Thus far, covering 14.2 innings, he’s allowed 22 hits, 16 runs and four bombs for a BAA of .367, a 2.59 WHIP and an ERA of 9.82. Those numbers are completely off the charts and it’s not like he has the run support to back him. The Indians are batting a league worse .211 and they’ll face one of the better lefties in the business in Mark Buerhle. Buehrle faced the Indians on opening day, tossing 7 shutout innings and fared similarly well against Cleveland in 2009. The White Sox are struggling out of the gate but this is still a good team and this is the right place for them to get it going. Frankly, this is a pitching mismatch of mammoth proportions. Play: Chicago –1½ +1.26 (Risking 2 units).
Philadelphia +1.70 over NEW JERSEY
Did you see anything at all in game one that suggests the Flyers couldn’t win game two? I sure as hell did not and the fact that we’re taking back +1.70 makes this one as sweet as can be. Brian Boucher looked sharp as a razor while Marty Brodeur once again looked very ordinary, as he has looked most of the year. After the first period and after the Flyers were under siege, they regrouped, scored the first goal and looked like the better team the rest of the way. They know how to beat this host and they also have a psychological edge as well. In fact, they’re really playing with house money here and will be under no pressure whatsoever while the Devils will be under extreme pressure. Yeah, the Devils can win but this game and series is very close and when looking for value, this is as good as it gets. Play: Philadelphia +1.70 (Risking 2 units).
Colorado +2.37 over SAN JOSE
The Sharks playoff woes continue and now this team is even more fragile than they were before. They Sharkies looked stunned and confused the whole game while the Av’s looked loose and confident and things will be no different this time around. The Sharks were booed off the ice when the game ended and they probably haven’t slept in two days either. The ghosts of seasons past continue to haunt this team and it’s no mystery. Playoffs are a different animal than the regular season and this team has never had a playoff mentality. They’re mentally soft and have no idea how to handle or respond to the playoff pressure and now you can double that. After the first 15 minutes of game one when the Sharks were the better team and did not score, they folded like a cheap tent and there’s no reason to think that’ll change here. Craig Anderson regained his early season form and the Av’s looked very good from the second period on. The Sharks are reeling and once again we find some tremendous value going against the overpriced Sharks. Play: Colorado +2.37 (Risking 2 units).
PHOENIX +1.15 over Detroit
The Coyotes started the year with an “us against the world” mentality and ironically, they started the playoffs with that same frame of mind. Nobody gave them a chance in the regular season and then they drew the red-hot Red Wings in the first round and were given even less of a chance. They even fell behind twice but rallied, played a great game and now they’re a pooch once again at home. Yeah, I thought the Red Wings were too good also but after watching game one and seeing how this team responded, my tune has changed. The Coyotes are tough as shoe leather and they’re not going away. The place will be absolutely charged tonight. You have to love the way these Coyotes play, especially the way the defense moves the puck out. Keith Yandle is so good and makes everyone around him better. The Red Wings are a strong team for sure and they can certainly rebound but these Coyotes were not intimidated in the least and got stronger with each passing minute. This should be a great game but give no edge to the Red Wings on the road. Play: Phoenix +1.15 (Risking 2 units).
Series Play
Nashville +3.56 over CHICAGO
In playoff hockey you need good goaltending and it’s quite often the difference in the outcome of a given series. There is no disputing that the Preds goaltending is rock solid while the Blackhawks goaltending is not. Sure, the Blackhawks offense is potentially deadly but they come into this series with some problems on defense and again, some shaky goaltending. In fact, the Blackhawks recently went through a stretch of games in which they dropped seven of nine and allowed a ton of goals over that stretch that included surrendering eight to Columbus, five to the Coyotes and four to the Ducks. They also allowed a combined nine goals to the Blue Notes in two successive games. The Preds haven’t had much playoff success and that’s a bit of a concern but this team is built for playoff hockey in that they’re big, they’re strong defensively and they’re very physical. They also have two outstanding d-men in Shea Weber and Ryan Suter and it looks like Denis Grebeshkov will be back in time for the opener on Friday. Again, we have a situation here in which the price will dramatically drop should the Preds steal one in Chicago and that will allow us to “hedge” and ensure a profit. The Blackhawks are a great team and a threat to win it all but this is still an overlay. Play: Nashville +3.56 (Risking 2 units).
James Patrick Sports
Flyers vs. Devils
The Philadelphia Flyers captured game #1 behind a fantastic performance from their 3rd string goalie Brian Boucher. It is a lot harder to win a series than one game and the New Jersey Devils are the better team and we look for them to bounce back on their home ice in Game #2 action. Big Game James Patrick's Friday Night NHL selection is New Jersey Devils.
Nelly
Washington + over Milwaukee
The Brewers and Nationals have the exact same record so far this season and Milwaukee has struggled to keep runs off the board, allowing at least four runs in every game and at least five runs in all but one point per game. Milwaukee has allowed at least six runs in each of the last five games and the two wins the Brewers got in the last six games featured close finishes as the bullpen has really struggled. Washington had also allowed a lot of runs this season but the Nationals have had to play the Phillies six times already this year. Washington is keeping up however with strong run production on the last road series including seven-run efforts the last two games. Milwaukee has struggled away from home in recent seasons and Yovani Gallardo has looked terrible so far this season, featuring a 6.75 ERA and control problems. John Lannan had a tough firs touting but looked back to form last season and he provides a left-handed arm that could give a free-swinging Milwaukee lineup trouble. Washington is 7-2 in the last nine games following a win as this has been a streaky team. With great underdog value at home Washington looks like a great play Friday night as the Brewers enter off an emotional win against the Cubs on Thursday.
Nite Owl Sports
Nashville Predators @ Chicago Blackhawks
3 Units: Over 5 (-140)
We like the OVER in this game but only if you can get it at 5 (laying juice of -135 to 145), not at 5.5, because (i) 5 is such a key # in playing totals in NHL, especially in the playoffs, and (ii) while these two were just a combined 67-73 to the under when the total was 5.5, they were an impressive combined 9-1 to the Over when the totals line was 5. And while both teams finished the regular season close to .500 vs the total in their respective modes for this game (Preds away and Hawks home), note that they both averaged > 5.5 total GPG in those modes (Nash 5.8 road and Chi 5.7 at home). Despite having played each other six times TY, these NHL Central rivals have not squared off vs each other since Dec 27, in a nine goal game in the Windy City in which Blackhawks prevailed, 5-4..
And when handicapping NHL playoff games, we always check to see how the two teams fared (both W-L and vs the total) in their respective modes for the game at hand (in this case Chicago at home and Nash away) in recent playoffs. And in this case, there is a slight edge for the over with Chicago, which went 4-3-1 Over (and 4-2-2 Over vs a “would be” totals line of 5 goals) at home in 3 rounds LY, with an average of 6.1 total GPG, after failing to reach the playoffs the two previous years. On the other hand, we see no recent relevant playoff history with Preds, as they failed to reach the playoffs LY and have a significantly different team TY from the ones that got eliminated in the first round by Detroit in April 2008 and by SJ in April 2007.
But we believe we have more than enough support for this 3 unit pick on Over 5 goals (laying odds of -140).