Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday April, 27

Marc Lawrence

Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers
Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays

When the Rays send James Shields to the hill against the Rangers in the Ballpark at Arlington Friday evening Tampa will do so knowing they've come up winners in each of Shields' last nine starts during the month of April. He's also 6-4 in his 10 career teams starts with 58 strikeouts and 9 walks in his career against Texas. With that look for the Rays to improve to 11-6 in their last 17 games against the A.L. West here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Tampa Bay.

Sam Martin

Washington at San Diego
Play: Washington

We successfully backed the Nationals each of the last two days against the Padres, and while we don't think today's matchup is as strong as those games for the road side, we still think there is plenty of value backing Washington once again here tonight. San Diego's offense is stuck in misery, scoring just three runs in the first two games of this series combined, and send a struggling pitcher in Volquez to the hill here, who has seen his team lose all four of his starts this season. Padres offense has no momentum to build on here tonight and Washington is full of confidence with their stellar 14-4 start to the season. We know Jackson doesn't have the greatest numbers on the mound, but this San Diego offense can make anyone look like Cy Young. Back the red hot Nats tonight!

Guillermo Sanchez Perez

Detroit @ New York
PICK: Under 8.5

The Detroit Tigers arrive in the Bronx hoping to bounce back from a dismal losing stretch, having lost their last four games. With Justin Verlander on the mound for the Tigers, they will have a chance to reverse their fortunes against the Yankees. That being said, New York will have a pitcher on the mound that has won his last 15 regular season starts. Ivan Nova has pitched well for the Yankees, and the hulking right-hander is likely going to be a tough nut to crack. 'He's a monster. I don't know when people are going to realize that he's a fantastic young pitcher,' teammate Alex Rodriguez said. 'All he knows how to do is win.'

The Yankees Derek Jeter comes in to the game riding a 15 game hit streak, batting .420 and is 11 for 17 over the past four games. The 37 year old is off to one of the best starts of his career, but I am betting that his streak comes to an end Friday, as he is facing the reigning AL MVP and Cy Young winner, Justin Verlander.

Hits are going to be hard to come by in the Bronx on Friday, with two great pitchers going head to head, don't expect to see a lot of runs scored. I expect the total to stay under 8.5, we will see a low scoring affair in this pitcher's duel.

Rob Vinciletti

Milwaukee Brewers vs. St.Louis Cardinals
Play: St.Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals fit a system that has won 12 of the past 15 times and plays on home favorites off a road win if they scored 5 or more runs, vs an opponent like the Brewers that are off a home favored loss and scored 5 or more runs. The Cardinals are averaging 6 runs per game at home and are 5-0 when the total is 8 to 8.5. Milwaukee is 2-7 when the total is 8 to 8.5. The Cards have J. Westbrook on the mound and he has a stellar 1.31 era this season and a 3.08 era in 6 starts vs the Brewers. Tonight he faces Y. Gallardo. In his career the Cardinals have owned Gallardo as he has a 1-9 record and 6.24 era against them, including a loss already this season. Look for St. Louis to take the opener.

Dave Cokin

Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox
Pick: Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox suddenly have a little positive momentum and should be in good shape for another win here. Daniel Bard rates an edge over John Danks right now and I expect the Red Sox to garner their fourth straight win tonight.

Jim Feist

Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees
Pick: New York Yankees

The Tigers have been struggling and they are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. Ace Justin Verlander goes here, but the Tigers are 1-4 in Verlander's last 5 starts vs. Yankees. New York is home with a powerful offense and the Yankees are 40-18 in their last 58 home games. The Yankees are 20-7 in Ivan Novas last 27 starts, as well as 7-0 in Nova's last 7 starts during game 1 of a series. And the Tigers are 17-38 in the last 55 meetings in New York. Play the NY Yankees!

SPORTS WAGERS

Milwaukee +124 over ST. LOUIS

Early season stats can be misleading, presenting opportunities where corrections are inevitable. Case in point is Jake Westbrook and his 1.31 ERA. Westbrook is 34-years old and in 11 seasons in the majors his career ERA is 4.30. With 10 walks and seven strikeouts in 20.2 frames this season, Westbrook has not only been lucky with an unsustainable 86% strand rate but he’s also been fortunate when he faced three struggling teams in Cincinnati to open the year and then games against the Cubs and Pirates. Aside from the ground balls that keep coming, everything else about his skill set screams stay away. Westbrook is a back-end of the rotation guy and will never be anything else. A notable spike in his ERA is forthcoming and it could begin here. Conversely, Yovani Gallardo is a true ace. He’s always been a bit of slow starter, as evidenced by his career 4.42 ERA in his first four starts of the year. Gallardo will now make his fifth start of the season and has a career 10-2 record in May with a 2.63 ERA. It’s not quite May but in a similar spot a year ago, Gallardo went into St. Louis on May 7 and threw a one-hitter and subsequently went six straight starts without allowing more than two runs in any of them. Anytime we can take back a price on Gallardo, we’re not going with the worst of it. Against guys like Westbrook, the philosophy is even stronger. Play: Milwaukee +122 (Risking 2 units).

Boston -109 over CHICAGO

The Red Sox are still last in the AL East and that allows us to play them at very reasonable prices. They belted the White Sox last night 10-3 and have now scored 43 runs over their past five games while batting a collective .363. They’ll face John Danks here and while Danks is a good pitcher he’s facing a red-hot Boston offense and he’s always been better in the second half. The South Side has lost three straight while being outscored 17-7. Daniel Bard has just two regular-season starts (both losses) into his transition into the starting rotation. He was the loser on April 10 against Toronto and on April 16 he was effectively wild (7 BB, 7 K) and wound up a hard-luck 1-0 loser in a duel with Tampa Bay's James Shields. Bard's xERA (3.32) is about a full run lower than his actual ERA (4.38), so there is clearly insufficient evidence to conclude the experiment has been a failure at this point. Bard has a strong groundball profile of 56%. He’s also struck out 13 batters in 12 frames. Bard has a WHIP of 1.70 due to the nine walks he’s issued but that’s uncharacteristic of him and you can expect his control to be much stronger going forward. Also note that current White Sox hitters have only 18 AB’s against Bard and have four hits in those 18 tries. Play: Boston -109 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).

EZWINNERS

Philadelphia Phillies -250

The Phillies offense has been very quite to start this season but I like them to put some runs on the board against Paul Maholm the struggling starter for the Cubs. Maholm has an ERA of 8.36 so far this season and has been very hittable which should help get the Philadelphia bats going. Philadelphia counters with their ace pitcher Roy Halliday who is 3-1 with a sparkling 1.50 ERA. I look for another strong outing from Doc as the Phillies pick up the win.

Jack Jones

Boston Red Sox -109

The Boston Red Sox have finally gotten on track this season with four straight victories heading into this Game 2 showdown with the Chicago White Sox tonight. I'll continue backing the Red Sox at a great price Friday.

Despite their 8-10 record, I have no doubt that the Red Sox are still one of the best teams in baseball. Starter Daniel Bard is underrated right now because this is his first real opportunity to start in the big leagues. He gave up one earned run in 6 2/3 innings while striking out 7 batters in his last start against Tampa Bay.

John Danks is off to a shaky start this season, going 2-2 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.459 WHIP through four starts. He has given up 11 earned runs and 30 base runners in 18 2/3 innings over his last three starts. He'll be up against a Boston line-up tonight that is averaging 7.8 runs/game over their last four contests.

The Red Sox are 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. Boston is 5-1 in their last 6 games following a win. The White Sox are 1-7 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Chicago is 1-6 in Danks' last 7 starts vs. American League East. The White Sox are 2-15 in Danks' last 17 Friday starts. Bet Boston Friday.

JR O'Donnell

Detroit Tigers -135

Tonight's Mighty O first pitch will be thrown at 7:05 PM EST, as the Detroit Tigers (10-8 & 8-5 as a fav), invade the New York Yankees (10-8 & 3-3 as a home dog. that's respect) Detroit sends out their Ace, one of the best pitchers in the bigs in Justin Verlander, who is 2-1, 1.72 ERA & a .80 WHIP. He has "4" starts, going almost "8" innings per outing, and has just short of a 4:1 ratio of strikeouts to walks. His mound opponent is Ivan Nova, who is 3-0, 3.79 ERA, 1.42 WHIP & a little better than a 3:1 K to BB ratio. The issue is his three wins are against teams that are 25-30, while Detroit's opponents are 39-35. Detroit doesn't score like the Yankees, but holds opponent's to 3 r/g on the road and are 4-2 away. Yankees do score 5.7 r/g at home, but surrender 4.9 r/g. Verlander will be tough for them to score "5+" runs on.

Bryan Power

Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Indians
PICK: Los Angeles Angels

It has been a terrible start thus far for the Angels, who have opened 6-13 and are a poor 5-9 when favored this season. That said, I like them to get back on track this weekend in Cleveland against an Indians club that just dropped back to back games - at home - to the lowly Royals. Los Angeles will start Jered Weaver here. Weaver has yet to drop a decision this season, including a complete game victory over Baltimore last time out. His start before that saw him shut the A's out over 6.7 innings. He is a notoriously fast starter; now 12-0 with a 1.84 ERA before May 1st over the last three seasons. There have been no issues with Cleveland for Weaver, who is 4-0 with a 2.01 ERA in six starts at Progressive Field. Overall, LA has won six of eight against the Tribe. Cleveland has not been productive at home in the early going, losing six of eight at "The Prog" while suffering a -18 run differential. Tonight's starter Justin Masterson has a 6.65 ERA in four starts so far and can't go toe-to-toe with Weaver. He's exhibited poor control in his last two starts, walking 10 opposing batters.

Lenny Del Genio

Mariners @ Blue Jays
PICK: Blue Jays -1.5

In case you were paying attention to the end of the NBA season, you might be unaware that Seattle shockingly swept Detroit this week in Comerica Park. We look for the Mariners to come back down to Earth this weekend in Toronto and it all starts in Friday's series opener where they must deal with Blue Jays ace Ricky Romero. Seattle is a horrid 13-32 L45 vs. southpaws and Romero has a 9-0 team start record at home in night games. Toronto has won all four of his starts so far and with the money line being too high for our liking here, we will "lay" the 1.5 runs. The Jays will be hungry to turn things around after being swept in Baltimore to start the week. They are 59-38 against the run line in all of Romero's starts all time.

SPORTS WAGERS

Nashville -104 over PHOENIX

Let’s call it what it is and suggest that the Coyotes do not have the talent to extend their season another round. They were dominated by the Blackhawks and the combination of Mike Smith being outstanding and Corey Crawford being less than average allowed Phoenix to advance. The same fate does not await them here, as Pekka Rinne is one of the best in the business. Both teams relied a bit too much on their respective netminders in their first-round victories but the Coyotes especially saw their team play deteriorate in the last few games against Chicago while the Predators were coming on against Detroit. The first few games saw the Preds being a little flat but coach Barry Trotz will have none of that to start this round. These aren't your older brother's Predators either. Long viewed as a defense-only team, Nashville has more offensive depth than those teams of the past few years and finished eighth overall in the regular season in goals per game. That was with offensive star Alexander Radulov joining late in the year. Nashville has superior talent and it would not surpruise one bit to see this series be a short one, as it is the biggest mismatch of the second round. The Coyotes are beat up and have lost the biggest advantage they had in the first round: a far superior goalie. Play: Nashville -104 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).

SERIES

Los Angeles +152 over ST. LOUIS

Line dictates the play here. The Blues are a strong team and showed that strength by neatly disposing of the Sharks in opening round. However, these Kings are not the playoff-choking Sharkies. Los Angeles not only eliminated the top team in the West, they did it in five games with balanced scoring, outstanding goaltending, a strong defense and some true grit. Those are all the characteristics of a championship team and the Kings could certainly be one this season. Of course, the Blue Notes have many of those same traits but they’re not the club taking back +152. This series figures to be close. The last two regular-season encounters between the two might have provided a glimpse of things to come with the Blues beating the Kings 1-0 on Feb. 3 and the Kings returning the favor, 1-0 in a shootout, March 22. The Kings are an 8-seed and that’s likely the reason for this generous offer. However, L.A isn’t your typical eighth seed, as they were leading the Pacific Division before slipping from third to eighth in the conference in the regular season's final days and with many of its players playing their best hockey of the season, they’re peaking at the right time. Win or lose, we’re taking back a price that shouldn’t be offered here with a very capable and dangerous squad. Play: Los Angeles +152 (Risking 2 units).

David Chan

Cubs @ Phillies
PICK: Over 7

This is the opener of a four game set, and I expect this total to sneak above the posted number.

The Cub's (6-13) Paul Maholm (1-2, 8.36 ERA) is set to square off against the Phillies' (9-10) Roy Halladay (3-1, 1.50 ERA) on the mound this evening.

Maholm gave up one run over six frames of work vs. Cincinnati on Saturday, striking out five in his first victory of the year. It was the first time that he hadn't served up a home run this season, and the beleaguered southpaw was able to lower his ERA from a monstrous 13.50 to a less hideous 8.36.

But there were still things to be concerned about, as he gave up a first inning run, and walked three. While this is a new club for Maholm, it's still significant to note that he was just 1-6 with a 4.19 ERA away from friendly confines in 2011.

Halladay went seven frames last time out, giving up two runs off five hits, striking out five and walking four; it was the veterans first lost of the year, as the Padres would go on to prevail 5-1. Throwing against the Cubbies is not what the "Doc" ordered for Halladay though, as he's just 1-4 with a 3.72 ERA lifetime vs. them.

Philadelphia's bats have exploded over its last three games, plating 20 total runs, after just 10 over its previous six. The line-up has been very dominant vs. the Cubs as well, scoring 32-runs and hitting six dingers in winning five of the last six in this series.

Keep your eyes on Chicago's Starlin Castro who is batting .415 in 13 career outings vs. the Phillies, and is 5 of 9 off Halladay; also on Philadelphia's Jimmy Rollins who is 7 of 19 with three home runs during a four-game hitting streak in this series.

Hunter Pence has dominated Maholm, hitting .318 with two home-runs, four doubles and a triple lifetime.

This number is a little low I feel; you may want to consider a second look at the "over"!