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Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday August 14,2009

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SPORTS ADVISORS

NFL PRESEASON

St. Louis at N.Y. Jets

Rex Ryan makes his NFL head-coaching debut when he leads the Jets against the Rams and fellow rookie coach Steve Spagnuolo.

St. Louis QB Marc Bulger, who missed much of last year with an injury, will play the entire first quarter and possibly into the second along with the rest of the starters. Spagnuolo said he plans to use all four of his quarterbacks, including second-stringer Kyle Boller as well as rookie Keith Null and veteran Brock Berlin, who are competing for the No. 3 job.

Ryan said both Kellen Clemens and rookie Mark Sanchez will play with the first-string offense, with Clemens starting under center. However, Ryan added that rookie Erik Ainge will get the majority of snaps in the game, and Harvard rookie Chris Pizzotti will play at least a series as well.

The Rams split their four preseason games both SU and ATS in each of former coach Scott Linehan’s final two seasons at the helm. However, they have lost 12 of their last 14 exhibition roadies since 2002, going 4-10 ATS. St. Louis is also 4-8 ATS as an underdog over this stretch.

The Jets have went 3-1 in August last year, the fourth time in the last five summers they’ve achieved that record. New York has cashed at a 9-6-1 clip during this span, but is just 1-3 ATS (2-2 SU) at home over the past two preseasons. Also, the Jets have failed to cover in three of their last four when laying more than three points in exhibition play.

New York spanked St. Louis 47-3 as a 9½-point home favorite last November, ending a seven-game SU and ATS losing skid to the Rams (all in the regular season) that dated to 1986.

The three battles between these teams this decade (all in the regular season) have gone over the total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

Minnesota at Indianapolis

The Colts take the field for the first time under new coach Jim Caldwell when they battle the Vikings at Lucas Oil Field.

After being spurned by veteran QB Brett Favre three weeks ago, Minnesota entered training camp with a quarterback battle between incumbent starter Tarvaris Jackson and veteran backup Sage Rosenfels. Because neither established himself as a clear-cut favorite to win the job, both are expected to see significant time under center tonight, though coach Brad Childress didn’t say who would be the starter. The third-string QB is second-year pro John David Booty.

Peyton Manning and the rest of the Colts’ starters are likely to play only a couple of series and will depart before the end of the first quarter, keeping with the Week 1 tradition of former coach Tony Dungy. Manning’s longtime backup, Jim Sorgi, is out with an injury, meaning rookie Curtis Painter “is going to get a pretty good amount of work,” Caldwell said.

The Vikings have been very mediocre in the preseason in Childress’s three years, going 5-6-1 SU and 7-6 ATS, including 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS last year. Minnesota is also 6-7-1 SU but 9-5 ATS on the highway since 2002. However, the Vikings have lost three straight preseason openers under Childress, all as a favorite.

The Colts were abysmal in August over Dungy’s final four years, going 3-15 SU and 5-13 ATS, including 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS last year. During this four-year stretch, Indianapolis lost seven of eight preseason home games both SU and ATS, went 3-7 ATS as an underdog and lost all four preseason openers (1-3 ATS).

The host has won six of the last seven overall meetings between these teams (4-3 ATS), the lone exception come in Week 2 of the regular season last year when the Colts rallied for an 18-15 victory as a one-point road chalk.

The Vikings stayed under the total in their final two exhibition games last year, ending a 5-0 “over” run for the team. Also, Indy’s final three preseason contests in 2008 remained low.

ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA

Cincinnati at New Orleans

Two teams that failed to live up to expectations in 2008 hook up at the Superdome, as Drew Brees and the Saints entertain Carson Palmer and the Bengals.

Palmer, who missed the final 10 games of last year because of an elbow injury, is slated to play 12 to 15 snaps tonight. Coach Marvin Lewis said he’ll let the flow of the game determine how long the rest of the first team plays. Once Palmer departs, J.T. O’Sullivan will take over and play the rest of the first half, with Palmer’s brother, Jordan, leading the offense over the final two quarters.

The high-powered New Orleans’ offense will be on the field for about one quarter, though Brees is only expected to play two series before being replaced by veteran Mark Brunell. Coach Sean Payton said Brunell will work with both the first- and second-stringers and play into the third quarter, with former first-round pick Joey Harrington finishing the game.

The Bengals have been the picture of preseason mediocrity since Lewis took over in 2003, splitting their 24 games SU while going 13-11 ATS. However, Cincinnati is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS as a visitor the past three years (all as an underdog), winning both road contests last year.

Like Cincinnati, the Saints split their two exhibition games last year both SU and ATS and are 6-7 SU and ATS under Payton. However, New Orleans lost both of its contests in the Superdome last summer and are 3-11 SU and ATS in designated preseason home games since 2002 (1-5 SU and ATS under Payton). The Saints are also 3-10 ATS in their last 13 as an exhibition chalk (1-6 ATS in that role the last four years).

The Bengals have covered in three consecutive preseason openers (2-1 SU), edging Green Bay 20-17 as a three-point underdog in 2008. Meanwhile, New Orleans is 2-1 SU and ATS in Week 1 under Payton, including a 24-10 rout at Arizona as a 2½-point road pup last year.

These teams met in Week 3 last August, with New Orleans posting a 13-0 shutout win as a 2½-point road favorite.

The under is 8-3 in New Orleans’ last 11 preseason contests overall, including 4-1 in designated home games.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS and UNDER

Denver at San Francisco

For the first time in 14 years, the Broncos take the field with a new head coach in charge, as Josh McDaniels guides his troops into San Francisco for a meeting with the 49ers and their first-year coach Mike Singletary.

McDaniels told reporters this week that he informed all of his players “to be ready to go for a long time” tonight, but wasn’t specific about actual playing time. QB Kyle Orton, who was acquired from Chicago for Jay Cutler, will get the start, while another newcomer, veteran Chris Simms, will be second under center. Rookie Tom Brandstater likely will finish up.

Shaun Hill, who is battling Alex Smith for San Francisco’s starting quarterback job, will begin this game under center, though Singletary said the competition remains wide open. Singletary added that the pace of the game will determine how long Hill plays and when Smith replaces him. Jamie Martin and Damon Huard are the other QBs on the 49ers’ roster. Starting RB Frank Gore will not suit up.

The Broncos split their four preseason games each of the last two years under former longtime coach Mike Shanahan, going 4-3-1 ATS. However, since 2002, Denver is 10-4 SU and 10-3-1 ATS in preseason road games (3-3, 2-3-1 ATS last three years on the road).

The 49ers have dropped 13 of their last 20 exhibition outings, splitting the cash during this span, including going 2-2 ATS each of the last three years. On the bright side, San Francisco did win and cover six of its eight preseason home games under former coach Mike Nolan, though one of the losses came in the 2007 opener to the Broncos, who prevailed 17-13 as a three-point pup.

The over is 4-1 in Denver’s last five preseason road games (the lone “under” occurring in San Francisco in 2007). Also, the over is 5-2 in the 49ers’ last seven August contests (3-0 at home).

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Boston (65-49) at Texas (64-49)

The top two clubs in the hunt for the A.L. wild-card open up a three-game series at Rangers Ballpark, with Kevin Millwood (9-7, 3.38) taking the ball for the home team against Red Sox lefty Jon Lester (9-7, 3.67).

The Red Sox failed to complete a four-game home sweep of Detroit on Thursday, getting blanked 2-0 by Justin Verlander. Boston has dropped six straight road games and also sports additional negative trends of 4-13 against winning teams, 1-10 on the road against winning squads and 2-5 versus the A.L. West.

Texas capped a 10-game road trip with Thursday’s 4-1 win at Cleveland. The Rangers started the trip with three straight losses in Oakland before winning five of the final seven games. They’re on positive runs of 7-0 against the A.L. East, 14-3 on Friday and 11-3 against teams with a winning record. Additionally, Texas has won 14 of its last 18 at home, including a three-game sweep of Boston from July 20-22, winning those three contests by a combined score of 13-6.

After losing nine of 10 to Boston last year, the Rangers have won five of six in this rivalry this season, with all five wins coming by multiple runs. In fact, the last 13 head-to-head battles have been multiple-run affairs.

Lester is coming off back-to-back brilliant starts in which he allowed one run each time out over a total of 13 innings (1.38 ERA), but he has nothing to show for it as the Red Sox lost road games to Tampa Bay (4-2) and the Yankees (5-2). Prior to that, Boston had been on a 6-1 roll behind Lester, and it is still 49-24 in his last 73 starts. The lefty has registered a quality start eight times in his last nine trips to the hill.

The Red Sox have split Lester’s 12 road starts in 2009, with the Washington native going 4-4 with a 3.99 ERA. He’s 2-0 with a 3.33 ERA in four starts against the Rangers (all at home), including an 8-1 rout on June 6 when he twirled a complete-game two-hitter, striking out 11, for Boston’s only win against Texas this season.

Millwood returned to the rotation on Saturday for the first time since July 26 and pitched well against the hot-hitting Angels, giving up two runs on nine hits in six innings, but it wasn’t enough as Texas lost 3-2 on the road. Not including the July 26 outing at Kansas City when he was pulled because of injury after two scoreless innings, Millwood has given up two earned runs or fewer in eight of his last 11 starts.

With Millwood pitching, the Rangers are on runs of 21-7 at home, 8-1 in series openers and 4-0 against the A.L. East. This year, he’s 7-1 with a 2.53 ERA at Rangers Ballpark and 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA in two games (one home, one road) against the Red Sox. For his career, Millwood is 4-1 with a 6-4 with a 3.99 ERA in 14 starts versus Boston.

The under is 4-1-1 in Lester’s last six starts overall, 4-0 in his last four road outings, 4-0-1 in his last five on Friday and 10-1-3 in his last 14 when opening a series. Likewise, with Millwood pitching, the “under” is on runs of 23-6-2 overall, 12-3-1 at home, 7-0 against the A.L. East, 6-2 on Friday and 5-2 when he faces Boston.

The Red Sox have topped the total in 11 of 17 overall and four straight against A.L. West competition, but otherwise they’re on “under” streaks of 11-4 on the road, 23-8-6 on Friday and 11-4 when facing right-handed starters on the road. Texas also is on a bevy of “under” surges, including 43-15-2 overall, 37-14-2 at home, 17-5-1 against the A.L. East, 8-1 in series openers, 37-15-2 against southpaw starters and 37-14-2 when facing teams with a winning record.

Finally, the last seven Red Sox-Rangers clashes – including the last four in Texas – have stayed under the total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS and UNDER

 
Posted : August 13, 2009 9:40 pm
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Carlo Campanella
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Minnesota Vikings at Indianapolis Colts
Prediction: Minnesota Vikings
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The Colts are 1-7 ATS during their last 8 home games during Preseason play and just 1-3 ATS during their first game of the Exhibition season the past 4 seasons. Of course, that was under Head Coach Tony Dungy. Along with Dungy, both the offensive and defensive coordinators have also left and former Dungy assistant, Jim Caldwell, takes the Head Coach position. Don'e expect to see much of QB Manning, especially with the offseason loss of back-up Jim Sorgi, as the Colts will want Curtis Painter and Chris Crane to be able to fill in if needed. In Minnesota, HC Brad Childress couldn't lure QB Farve to the Vikings and now must prove to the team, fans and especially his QBs, that they can win without Farve. The Vikings finished last season at 10-6 and the QB competition between Tarvis Jackson and Sage Rosenfels will only guarantee that both of these guys make the most of their Preseason playing time.

7* Play On Minnesota

 
Posted : August 13, 2009 9:44 pm
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Marc Lawrence
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Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers
Prediction: Kansas City Royals
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When the Royals send Zach Greinke to the mound against Jarrod Washburn and the Tigers in Detroit tonight they will do so knowing Greinke is 6-2 with a super-sharp 2.00 ERA in his last six team starts in this series. On the other side of the coin, Washburn is 0-4 with a 7.50 ERA in his last four starts against Kansas City. With Washburn sporting a 7.86 ERA since coming over to the Tigers, look for Greinke to continue his winning ways here this evening.

 
Posted : August 13, 2009 9:45 pm
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Rob Vinciletti
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San Francisco Giants vs. New York Mets
Play: Over 8½
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This game qualifies in a nice totals system that averages 11.3 runs.What we want to do is play the over for certain road favorites off a home favored win scoring 4 or less runs on 5+ hits and taking on an opponent that comes in off a road dog win.Both the Mets and Giants fit this scenario tonight.In the series 3 of the 4 games have gone over this year and the Mets have gone over 7 of 10 times vs winning teams in the second half.The Mets also hit leftys better than rightys this year.In the pitching matchup have B.Zito going for SF and he has been awful again on the road this year with an era at nearly five.In his 4 starts vs the Mets 3 have gone over the total.The Mets counter with righty Bobby Parnell making just his second start out of the pen.In his first start he threw a ton of pitches and was removed after failing to make it out of the third inning.He allowed 2 runs on 4 hits in that one and was lucky the bullpen saved him as he left a bunch of men on.He figures to struggle here once again tonight which could spell trouble for the Mets pen.This one looks like an over tonight.

 
Posted : August 13, 2009 10:44 pm
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Psychic Sports Picks
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Denver at San Francisco
Play: Denver +3
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Denver has been distracted and filled with controversy. San Francisco is intense and building for next year. 49ers should win easy? WRONG! Singletary has a plan and will be more focused on looking at players to help him this year while the result of the game means little. On the other hand Denver needs a win. They need to take some pressure off the new head coach who has not got off to a good start. Look for eventual starters to play a little more than usual for the Broncos tonight

 
Posted : August 13, 2009 10:47 pm
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Sports Gambling Hotline

Philadelphia at ATLANTA -125
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Easy RUN LINE winner on the Yankees last night. Now 17-5-1 the last 23 days for free!

Big, big series in the NL East starts tonight in Hot-lanta, and we will side with the Braves as they look to cut further into the Phillies division lead.

Atlanta sports the best record in the National League since the All-Star break, and they are also on a 13-4 run their last 17 home dates.
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The last time these teams met was at the end of June/early July, and it was the Bravos that pulled the 3-0 home sweep. Atlanta has now won 5 straight this season over the Phillies, and 9 of the last 11 meetings dating back to the end of last year!

True, Jair Jurrjens has been in a bit of a rut of late, but he is 2-0 in his 2 starts this year against the Phillies, working 12-plus innings of 1 run ball, allowing just 5 hits along the way!
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Joe Blanton counters, and the big righty has lost his last 2 starts, and the last time he faced the Braves, he was on the losing end, allowing 8 hits, and 3 runs in his 5 innings of work.

Until we see proof the Phillies can handle the Braves, we will back Atlanta to continue their series dominance.
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Play on Atlanta.

3♦ ATLANTA

 
Posted : August 13, 2009 10:55 pm
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Karl Garrett

Boston at TEXAS +105

Now 3 straight comp play winners from the G-Man, as Detroit blanks Boston. Overall, it is a 23-12 comp play run the last 35 days.
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For Friday night, G-Man all over the Texas Rangers back at home against Boston in a series that has some serious postseason implications riding.

Texas is back home after a pair of road wins at Cleveland, and the Rangers do sport a 37-21 home mark this year.

Boston was blanked yesterday at home against Detroit, so that makes losses in 7 of their last 10 games, and the Sox are 4 games below .500 on the road this season. That includes losses in 2 of 3 earlier this year at Arlington.
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In fact, Texas is 5-1 this year in the 6 meetings against the BoSox!

It will be Jon Lester facing Kevin Millwood, and both hurlers own a win against the others team this season - Millwood is actually 2-0 verus the Sox - and both hurlers are also in search of their 10th win of the season.

To me, the Red Sox have not proved they can step up against a winning team and beat them consistently. Until the Sox prove they can do that, they are a go-against for the G-Man.
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Take Texas.

4♦ TEXAS

 
Posted : August 13, 2009 10:56 pm
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Freddy Wills

Take Astros +120
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We get great value and that's because the Astros are traveling tonight from Florida to Milwaukee. I don't mind this as they pick up an extra hour of sleep on the way and it's been a known fact that they normally do not feel this kind of a trip until game 2.
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Astros will throw their best starter out there on Friday and he is turning into a flat out ace in front of our eyes. His struggles have always been road starts and he's still not getting respect here as a road under dog despite having a 3.1 ERA on the road this year including a 1.16 ERA in his last 5 road starts. I don't mind backing him here again as an underdog against the Brewers who are 2-6 in their last 8 vs. LH starter and are batting only .217 vs. LHP scoring 4.13 in their last 10 games. As mentioned in today's article Wandy Rodriguez won't have to face two hitters in Hart and Weeks who usually hit him pretty well, Hart (11-27) and Weeks (5-16). Astros are 7-3 in Rodriguez's last 10 starts vs. LH starters. In his last 5 starts vs. the Brewers he has a 1.40 ERA. He has plenty of gas throwing just 53 pitches a start ago. Brewers send Gallardo to the mound and he's 1-4 in his last 5 on 4 days rest and as a -110 to -150 favorite.
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Gallardo has not thrown the ball well of late well I should not say that he had a terrible outing at LA and had a nice bounce vs. Houston. However, I expect him to slip up here a bit and have a let down enough to capitalize on the Astros who are coming off a 4 games series with the Marlins where they scored 30 runs.

 
Posted : August 14, 2009 6:17 am
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Vernon Croy
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Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Detroit Tigers
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This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and the Tigers are the superior overall team at home here Friday night. The Tigers are 36-18 at home this season and they are 17-6 in their last 23 games as a home favorite. The Royals are just 0-6 in Zack Greinke's (11-7, 2.43 ERA) last 6 starts after a quality start in his last outing and they are also just 13-33 in Greinke's last 46 starts as a road underdog. The Royals are just 1-11 in their last 12 road games against a lefty starter and Greinke has struggled over his last 3 starts with an ERA of 5.50. Jarrod Washburn (8-7, 3.12) has an ERA of just 3.19 over 17 career starts against the Royals and I look for a strong outing from him after a rough outing in his last start which was against the Minnesota Twins. Take the Detroit Tigers as my MLB Free Play for Friday night.

 
Posted : August 14, 2009 6:20 am
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Frank Jordan
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St Louis Rams vs. New York Jets
Play: New York Jets -3.5
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They say defense wins championships and its true if you have no defense it is tough to outscore an opponent every time. The Jets bought into that and brought in Rex Ryan to solidify the defense and the offense with the quality running game will need minimal contributions from the young quarterback. St. Louis is retooling as they look to build around their work horse Stephan Jackson and quarterback Marc Bulger. Look for Sanchez to dazzle the crowd once he gets in their as the Jets faithful are sent home happy. Play NY Jets

 
Posted : August 14, 2009 6:21 am
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Cajun Sports
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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
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The Blue Jays make the long trip south to Cigar City to face the hometown Rays in a three-game weekend set. Toronto is 23-33 (-8.5) on the road this season and a miserable 15-27 (-14.7) when facing division opponents overall. The Jays will send ace right-hander Roy Halladay to the bump knowing they are 4-5 in his nine starts on the road this season although he has a record of 4-2 with an ERA of 2.81 in those contests. He has struggled recently going 1-2 over his last three outings with an ERA of 3.37. Halladay has already faced this Rays team three times this season with the Jays suffering a trio of losses with two of those coming north of the border and one in Tampa. Halladay is 11-26 (-17.0) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997 and 8-28 (-19.8) in road games vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game in the second half of the season since 1997. Halladay and the Jays will face a Rays team that is 36-18 (+8.6) at home and 23-16 (+8.8) when facing division opponents. The Rays are also 46-29 (+19.5) versus an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better over the last 2 seasons and 17-4 (+12.4) in home games after allowing 8 runs or more the last 2 seasons. The key angle for tonight’s matchup states that Tampa Bay is 13-0 (+13.7) in home games after allowing 9 runs or more the last 2 seasons. The Rays will send James Shields to the mound with his .500 record at home and an ERA of 3.20 this season. Tampa Bay is 27-18 (+12.1) versus Toronto the last three seasons including 7-2 (+5.5) this year. They are 15-6 (+9.4) when playing at home versus the Jays and a perfect 3-0 (+3.1) at the Trop this season. We will back the better team here as a small underdog or small favorite in either case it’s a win for the Rays at the Trop on Friday night.
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Graded Selection: 2* Tampa Bay Rays 3 Toronto Blue Jays 2

 
Posted : August 14, 2009 6:22 am
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MTi Sports
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Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs
Prediction: Chicago Cubs
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The Cubs are 7-0 as a favorite after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits and the Pirates are 0-7 s on the road after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits and it is the first game of a series and 0-7 as a 140+ dog when they lost the last two games their starter started. Consider the Cubbies.

 
Posted : August 14, 2009 6:24 am
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Dominic Fazzini

L.A. Dodgers -110 at ARIZONA
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The Yankees hammered the Mariners 11-1 on Thursday night, pushing me to 10-3 in my last 13 complimentary selections, including five straight wins! Time to keep it rolling into the weekend!

Dodgers left-hander Clayton Kershaw (8-6, 2.73 ERA) has been as good as any pitcher over his last 11 starts, holding opposing teams scoreless in seven of those outings. He is 5-1 with a 1.06 ERA over those 11 starts.
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Kershaw allowed just two hits in seven scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts Saturday against Atlanta, but left with a no-decision.

Arizona ace Dan Haren (11-7, 2.57) has struggled in his last four starts, going 1-2 with a 6.26 ERA, and allowed five runs and seven hits in six innings Saturday at Washington. His career ERA after the All-Star break is 4.17, which is more than half a run higher than his lifetime ERA of 3.56.
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Haren also is 0-3 with a 5.09 ERA in his last four starts against Los Angeles, with all of those coming since the Dodgers acquired Manny Ramirez, who is 10-for-20 with two homers lifetime against Haren.

L.A. is 6-2 against Arizona this year and should improve that mark today. Take the Dodgers in this one.
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3♦ L.A. DODGERS

 
Posted : August 14, 2009 6:27 am
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Bobby Maxwell

Minnesota at INDIANAPOLIS +1'
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I'm diving into the preseason football action for a FREE winner tonight as the Colts are definitely the play at home over the Vikings.

Have you seen the line swing in this game since it was announced Colts' primary backup QB Jim Sorgi would be sidelined tonight with a hamstring injury? It doesn't matter to me because this is a game that the Colts want to win for new coach Jim Caldwell who takes over for the beloved Tony Dungy who retired at the end of last season.
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Peyton Manning wants to get his coach an opening win, even if it is in the preseason. While he is listed to play just a couple series, expect to see him the entire first quarter - at least. He wants to put up a TD or two before giving way and give Caldwell a solid chance at winning the game.

Colts' rookie QB Curtis Painter, who has drawn a lot of attention in camp with his sharp passing and ability to move in the pocket, will get a lot of playing time in the middle two quarters. Plus these guys have a battle at the RB position with incredible depth at the position. Joseph Addai is the starter and backed up by rookie Donald Brown. But behind them you've got a war between Mike Hart, Chad Simpson and Lance Ball for the third spot. So look for these guys to run hard tonight.
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The Vikings and coach Brad Childress have shown they don't focus on winning in the preseason. He isn't going to trot Adrian Peterson out there in a preseason game and he isn't going to do anything to risk injury to QBs Tarvaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels. Neither has looked very good in camp, by the way, and Childress didn't say who would start.

Minnesota went 1-3 in the exhibition campaign last year and Indy has been notorious for being a horrible preseason squad. But look for them to try a little harder tonight for Caldwell. Play Indy in this one.
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2♦ INDIANAPOLIS

 
Posted : August 14, 2009 6:28 am
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Jeff Benton

Denver +3 at SAN FRANCISCO
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Hope you enjoyed Thursday’s NFL preseason free-play winner on the Steelers. I’ve now hit three straight freebies and five of the last six. For Friday, I’ll go back to the NFL and take the points with the Broncos at the 49ers.

Preseason football can be very tricky to handicap, solely because no matter how much research you do, you just don’t know if those coaches who are forthright during the week about playing time actually do what they say they’re going to do. It’s a little easier with veteran coaches, because you learn over time which ones to believe. But with rookie coaches, it’s kind of a crapshoot.
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And that’s why I’m using the Broncos as a free selection tonight and not a premium play: New Denver coach Josh McDaniels publicly stated two days ago that he told all of his players – from veterans down to rookie free agents – be ready to play “a lot” tonight in San Francisco. “They are going to be ready to play the whole game,” he told Denver reporters. “That is what the philosophy is and that is how were are going to prepare for the games in the preseason.”

If he stays true to his word, then the Broncos offer a ton of value as an underdog. Suffice to say, I believe McDaniels isn’t blowing smoke, and here’s why: His first training camp has been anything but a day at the beach (among other things, the majority of practices have been in full pads). Also, he’s approached this week like a regular-season game, installing a game plan (unheard of in the exhibition season, especially Week 1), issuing scouting reports and scheduling stadium walk-throughs. “These are not just scrimmages,” McDaniels said.
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Well, of course they are just that. But if we’ve got a coach who is treating them otherwise, and we’re getting a couple of points from the oddsmakers then a small value play is definitely in order … especially since the 49ers aren’t exactly deep in talent or experience, including at the QB position where the names Shaun Hill, Alex Smith, Jamie Martin and Damon Huard don’t exactly cause fear. Take the points.

3♦ DENVER

 
Posted : August 14, 2009 6:29 am
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