Brad Diamond Sports
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Play: Philadelphia over Atlanta
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Realize the Phillies are playing yo-yo baseball at this time, sweeping the Cubs on the road, but faltering in the series at home versus the Marlins. We know right-hander Jurrjens has been successful against the Phillies, but my guess is the hurler is going through a tired arm period. In addition, the Braves are 1-10 in game #1 of a series with Jurrjens.
Triple Threat Sports
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Play: Milwaukee over Houston
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Good value on the Brewers here as this year's ace Gallardo (2.50 career ERA against Houston) laying a small price to the still road challenged Wandy Rodriguez. Brew Crew takes this one!
JIM FEIST
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BOSTON RED SOX / TEXAS RANGERS
TAKE UNDER
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Long flight for the Boston offense, playing at home yesterday against Detroit. Lefty Jon Lester is on a roll (2.89 ERA last three starts), a great strikeout pitcher, fanning 165 in 147 innings. He faces a Texas team on a 6-3 run under the total. Boston's offense has been ice cold on the road of late, and faces Kevin Millwood (9-7, 3.38 ERA), who has been terrific all season. Can't see many runs in this one, play the Red Sox/Rangers Under the total.
DAVE COKIN
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DENVER BRONCOS / SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Take SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
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No coach had a worse off-season than Denver's new coach Josh McDaniels -- at age 33! He inherits a team that has been awful defensively the last few years. And while the offense had been very good, he ran Pro Bowl QB Jay Cutler out of town. So QBs Kyle Orton, Chris Simms and Tom Brandstater are learning the new offense, while the defense is switching to a 3-4. Since Denver has been so bad at stopping the run, it's hard to see how a 3-4 scheme will help (plus DE Jarvis Moss, the Denver Broncos' top draft pick in 2007, has been a bust and is learning to play outside linebacker. He missed 5 practices last week.) The team.5?s top three receivers are listed as Eddie Royal, Brandon Stokley and Jabar Gaffney. WR Brandon Marshall, the team.5?s top receiver the last two years, is on the second-team, listed behind Gaffney. San Francisco has a fairly deep/experienced preseason QB rotation of Shaun Hill, Alex Smith and Damon Huard (they also drafted mobile rookie QB Nate Davis from Ball State). Head coach Mike Singletary is a fiery guy and this is his first preseason, as he became head coach in the middle of last season. Through 16 practices over 10 days, both QBs Smith and Shaun Hill have been diligent at taking care of the ball and keeping interceptions to a minimum. Their competition for the starting job is a close one, too close for Singletary to call until later in the month. The only concern is the 49ers defense, which has battled injuries: Pro Bowl linebacker Patrick Willis sprained an ankle on the first day of practice missed last week; Outside linebacker Parys Haralson has a hip flexor injury; LB Jay Moore cut his middle finger. Having several starters out means some players are getting more reps than they normally would. Tony Wragge stepped in for LG David Baas and Ahmad Brooks is getting time at Haralson's outside linebacker spot on the weak side. Singletary said he "liked the energy" in practice, so it's likely they will be into playing in front of the home fans, especially against a Denver team that has a lot of holes and question marks. I like the fired up 49ers over the rebuilding Broncos.
Evan Altemus
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Philadelphia at Atlanta
Play: ATLANTA -133
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There is a reason why this line is so high for Atlanta, especially considering Philadelphia's recent hot streak. Joe Blanton has really struggled against the Braves recently, while Jair Jurrens has shutdown the Phillies this season. Jurrens has pitched 12.2 innings against them this season, giving up 0 earned runs and 1 run total in those 2 starts. His recent stats are skewed because of his 2 straight starts against the Dodgers. Besides those starts, he is in good current form. Meanwhile, Blanton has faced the Braves 3 times this season, giving up 16 runs total in those outings. Both line-ups are hitting well right now, but Philadelphia was able to hammer horrible Chicago pitching. In fact, Atlanta is the much hotter team right now, winning 7 of their last 8 games.
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2 UNIT SELECTION
DUNKEL
Houston at Milwaukee
The Brewers look to take advantage of a Houston team that is just 1-6 in its last 7 games as a road underdog between +110 and +150. Milwaukee is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Brewers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-130).
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Game 951-952: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Morton) 12.354; Cubs (Wells) 14.122
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 2; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-225); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-225); N/A
Game 953-954: Washington at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Mock) 14.885; Cincinnati (Harang) 15.610
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-170); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-170); Under
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Game 955-956: Colorado at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Hammel) 14.782; Florida (Johnson) 16.781
Dunkel Line: Florida by 2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-170); Under
Game 957-958: San Francisco at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Zito) 14.341; NY Mets (Parnell) 15.038
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+115); Over
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Game 959-960: Philadelphia at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Blanton) 16.361; Atlanta (Jurrjens) 16.042
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+120); Over
Game 961-962: Houston at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Rodriguez) 14.702; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.713
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-130); Under
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Game 963-964: San Diego at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Latos) 14.454; St. Louis (Wainwright) 15.545
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-210); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-210); Under
Game 965-966: LA Dodgers at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 15.134; Arizona (Haren) 16.268
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-110); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-110); Over
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Game 967-968: LA Angels at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 14.709; Baltimore (Tillman) 14.818
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-140); 10
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+130); Over
Game 969-970: Kansas City at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Greinke) 14.568; Detroit (Washburn) 15.745
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Detroit (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-120); Under
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Game 971-972: Toronto at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Halladay) 15.624; Tampa Bay (Shields) 14.119
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+105); Over
Game 973-974: Boston at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 16.154; Texas (Millwood) 16.052
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-125); Under
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Game 975-976: Cleveland at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Masterson) 15.083; Minnesota (Baker) 16.069
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-170); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-170); Over
Game 977-978: Chicago White Sox at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Contreras) 16.219; Oakland (Anderson) 15.134
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+135); Under
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Game 979-980: NY Yankees at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Pettitte) 15.585; Seattle (Rowland-Smith) 15.680
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+145); Under
WNBA
Chicago at New York
The Sky look to take advantage of a New York team that is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 home games. Chicago is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+3 1/2).
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Game 601-602: Connecticut at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 108.157; Washington 114.559
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 6 1/2; 152
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 3 1/2; 155 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-3 1/2); Under
Game 603-604: Chicago at New York
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 110.239; New York 109.926
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 141 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 3 1/2; 146
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+3 1/2); Under
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Game 605-606: Sacramento at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 109.072; Los Angeles 112.142
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 3; 137
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 6 1/2; 140
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+6 1/2); Under
NFL
Game 259-260: St. Louis at NY Jets
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 118.247; NY Jets 125.099
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 7; 35
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 3 1/2; 34
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-3 1/2); Over
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Game 261-262: Minnesota at Indianapolis
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 120.160; Indianapolis 114.979
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 6; 36
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 2; 35
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+2); Over
Game 263-264: Cincinnati at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 117.652; New Orleans 124.844
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 7; 40
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3 1/2; 37
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-3 1/2); Over
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Game 265-266: Denver at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 120.740; San Francisco 124.395
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 3 1/2; 31
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3; 34
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-3); Under
CFL
BC at Toronto
The Lions are coming off a 35-20 win over Saskatchewan, but are just 3-13-2 ATS in their last 18 games following a SU win. Toronto is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has BC favored by only 2. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+3).
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Game 403-404: BC at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: BC 109.082; Toronto 106.942
Dunkel Line: BC by 2; 38
Vegas Line: BC by 3; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+3); Under
Chris Jordan
Chicago at OAKLAND -150
Your free pick tonight is on the Oakland Athletics, and I am listing both Jose Contreras and Brett Anderson.
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I am more impressed with Anderson than I am in going against Contreras, as the Oakland southpaw comes in after notching his first win of August in his last start, against the Royals, allowing three runs in six-plus innings of work. Oakland's young southpaw appeared to be untouchable for most of the day, scattering three hits through six frames, he simply ran out of gas late and allowed three runs in the seventh. He still earned his third straight quality start. He’s been rock solid lately, as he allowed just two runs over 6-2/3 innings on Aug. 3 against Texas, he drew a win over Boston on July 29 after giving up three runs over six innings and most importantly the A’s are 3-0 in those last three outings. He’s got a 3.66 ERA in those games.
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With Contreras, I’m looking at the fact he’s 0-2 in his last three outings with an inflated 6.92 ERA. For the season, the power right-hander is 4-11 on the year, while the Pale Hose have lost 12 of his 17 starts. He has a rather high 5.09 ERA and hasn’t won a game since July 8. He’s struggling terribly in plating runs, as he’s allowed seven runs in his last 7-1/3 innings. Most recently, Contreras couldn't even make it out of the fifth inning against lowly Cleveland, which tagged him for four runs on six hits in 4-2/3 innings in an 8-4 loss. With a 6.00 ERA lifetime against the A's, I like my chances with the home team.
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1♦ ATHLETICS
Jimmy the Moose
Rockies at Marlins
Both teams have been sizzling at the plate recently, and with pitchers trending to the Over as well it's an easy decision in Florida when the Rockies and Marlins open their weekend series.
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The Colorado Rockies bats have come to life recently. On Thursday the Rockies pounded out 15 hits and scored 10 runs in a 10-1 beating of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Over their last six games the over is a profitable 4-1-1.
On Friday evening the Rockies send Jason Hammel to the mound and on the year his season ERA is 4.66, but over his last three starts his ERA is a horrible 7.62. The Over is 2-0-1 in Hammel's last three starts. In his only career start vs. the Marlins, Hammel lasted 4.1 innings and gave up six earned runs on eight hits in an 8-3 loss.
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On Thursday Florida had 11 hits vs. the Astros in a 9-2 win that played over the total. The Marlins have played over the total now in six straight games and over the total in their last eight games as a favorite as well as five of their last six home games.
The Marlins send Josh Johnson to the mound and the Over is 12-7 in games he's started this year. Florida has played Over the total in his last four starts.
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Both teams are swinging hot bats and both starting pitchers have been giving up runs of late. Look for the teams to combine to end the game with a double-digit score. Play the Over.
Pick: Rockies-Marlins Over 8
Bob Harvey
LAA Angels at Baltimore Orioles
Coming off a three-game sweep of the Rays earlier this week in Anaheim, the Angels now take to the road where the winning continues at the expense of the Orioles.
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The Angels appear ready to go on another of their “streaks” and that’s bad news for the Baltimore Orioles.
Jered WeaverThe Halos begin a long east coast road trip today as they open a three-game set with the woeful Birds. While the Angels are hot, the Orioles are not and the numbers and trends will prove it.
The Angels are one of the better road teams in baseball. They’ve gone 17-5 in their last 22 away games and are an eye-popping 20-9 against the AL East this season. LA is also 21-7 in its last 28 meetings against Baltimore, including 5-1 this season. During those six games the Angels have outscored the O’s 39-25. Those numbers alone would warrant a serious look at the Over. But I digress. The Halos are hitting a major league best .289 and averaging nearly six runs per game. Both of those numbers figure to improve this weekend against a pitching challenged Orioles club.
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Rookie Chris Tillman, still in search of his first big league decision, makes his third start of the season for Baltimore. Tillman, an Anaheim native, has an ERA of 5.19 and has allowed 18 hits including five home runs in just 17+ innings of work. Tillman is well aware the Angels are hitting .316 against righthanders over their past 10 games and .296 on the season. No one said this would be easy kid.
Overall the Baltimore pitching staff ranks last or next to last in every statistical category: 30th in quality starts, 29th in WHIP, 28th in ERA and strikeouts. Their bullpen ranks 24th in MLB but that’s still better than the Angels 27th ranked pen. This is a classic case of a good team like the Angels being able to overcome the shortcomings of their bullpen by excelling in other facets of the games. The Orioles simply don’t have the talent to overcome the Angels'.
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And without laying all the “dirty laundry” at the doorstep of the pitching staff, the Orioles offense should share the blame. Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis, Aubrey Huff and Melvin Mora, to name a few, have all underachieved this season.
Jeff Weaver gets the start for the Angels and is finally living up to his press clippings. The former first-round draft pick from Long Beach State is 12-3 on the season with an ERA of 3.67.
I’m making a strong play tonight on the Angels at -143. This seems to be a real bargain price for one of the best teams in the league going with one of the best pitchers in the game. The Angels come in off a sweep of Tampa Bay in which they outscored the Rays 24-12. On paper this looks like a steal but then we’ve been burned before with that line of thinking. That being said the Angels are indeed the play today.
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Additionally, If your leaning towards an Over play (and I am), it’s good to know the Angels are 7-1-1 O/U in their last nine games. However if the Over has been cashing in a game involving Baltimore, it’s been the other team doing the bulk of the heavy lifting. The Orioles have scored just 22 runs in their last eight games and with Weaver on the mound the prospects aren’t promising for the Birds' Batmen. The only offensive fireworks tonight will be provided by the Angels.
Pick: Angels -143
VEGAS EXPERTS
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Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers
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The Broncos are going to be very bad this year, but the losing won't come until the games starting counting for real. They have a new Head Coach (Josh McDaniels) and that's always worth a look in NFL preseason betting circles. Denver has covered 32 of its last 49 non-conference preseason games and is 4-1 ATS as a road dog of three points or less. San Francisco is unaccustomed to laying points in pre/regular season and is 15-21 ATS as a preseason favorite.
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Play on: Denver
Tom Freese
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Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
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Boston is 45-15 the last 60 starts made by Jon Lester on grass and he is 15-5 if the Red Sox are off a loss and he is 20-8 his last 28 starts vs. winning teams. The Red Sox are 7-1 their last 8 games as favorites. Texas is 3-14 when the Total is 7.0 to 8.5 and they are 2-5 their last 7 games as underdogs. The Rangers are 1-5 with Millwood when their opponent scored 2 or less runs in their last game and they are 1-4 with Millwood as an underdog of +110 to +150. PLAY ON BOSTON
The Spread
San Francisco Giants at New York Mets
San Francisco is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing NY Mets
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing NY Mets
NY Mets are 4-11 SU in its last 15 games
NY Mets are 2-6 SU in its last 8 games at home
Pick: San Francisco
Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers
Boston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Texas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 6 games when playing on the road against Texas
Texas is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Texas's last 5 games
Pick: Texas
Houston Astros at Milwaukee Brewers
Houston is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Houston is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 5 games at home
Milwaukee is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Pick: Houston
Michael Alexander
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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
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The Philadelphia Phillies are coming off a huge series versus the Chicago Cubs that saw them complete a sweep of the series with a 6-1 win yesterday. Today they send veteran pitcher Joe Blanton to the hill. Blanton has has done well in night games this year with a good 3.46 ERA in 14 starts. In his last 8 outings Blanton has posted an even better 2.28 ERA. In addition, the Braves have struggled versus right handed pitching at home this season while facing a Phillies team who is 34-19 on the road.
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The Braves counter tonight with Jair Jurrjens on the hill. Jurrjens certainly has been tough overall this season but he has really struggled in his last two starts posting a very high 7.72 ERA.
There's huge value with the Phillies as a dog tonight
Take the Phillies
John Ryan
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San Diego Padres vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: San Diego Padres
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on San Diego as they play against the Cardinals set to start at 8:15 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 123-155 making 79.1 units since 1997. The average play for this system has been a dog of +190.3. So, as I have stated in so many picks before this one, this systems reflects a fantasy of playing Black Jack at your local casino and getting paid nearly 2 to 1 for every winning hand. Specifically, this system shows you playing 278 hands of Black Jack, winning just 44% of those hands, and still walking out with a huge profit of 79.1 units. Not bad. SD is also a solid 14-8 (+9.5 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities this season. St. Louis is just 14-27 (-16.7 Units) against the money line after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons. SD starter Latos is a rookie and was called up July 18th from AA San Antonio and has pitched very well in his 5 games started. He has posted a 2.43 ERA allowing just 19 hits and recorded 23 K’s spanning 29.2 innings pitched. Plus, the Cardinals batters will be facing him for the first time and 5 starts is not enough time for the scouts to get caught up with his performance. It is always difficult for a complete team facing a pitcher for the first time even with advanced scouting reports. Take San Diego.
Tom Stryker
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play:Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5
Los Angeles has dominated Arizona with 13 wins in the last 16 meetings and this is another ideal spot for the Dodgers. Diamondbacks ace Dan Haren is struggling to find the plate right now and LA will go for the jugular.
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In his last four starts, Haren has been crushed for 16 earned runs and 27 hits in 23.0 innings of work. That's bad enough for a 1-2 record and an elevated 6.26 ERA! Dan's last trip to the hill at Washington was one of his worst of the season. The right hander from Monterey Park, California was pounded for five earned runs and seven hits in just 6.0 frames.
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Los Angeles will counter with "Mr. Consistency" Clayton Kershaw. In this just his second MLB season, Kershaw has surrendered just 40 earned runs and 89 hits in 131.2 innings. That's good enough for a nifty 8-6 mark and a respectable 2.73 ERA. Clayton's last performance at home against Atlanta was incredible. Through 7.0 innings of work, No. 22 was nipped for no earned runs and two hits. He fanned 10 batters and walked only one.
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If you need a little technical support to make this investment, consider the following: LA has nailed 40 of its last 58 coming off a straight up loss and 48 of its last 68 facing division foes. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks have slipped in 21 of their last 29 as an underdog including seven of their last eight priced as a home pup. Take LA with listed pitcher Kershaw.