Scott Rickenbach
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Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers
PICK: Under 8 Belmont
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At first glance, based on some recent struggles for each hurler, one might suspect an over to result at Comerica Park tonight. However, a key part of MLB handicapping is match-ups and Zack Greinke of the Royals and Jarrod Washburn of the Tigers both have key match-up edges with the opponents they are facing tonight. Washburn is a southpaw. He’s coming off of back to back rough outings in his first two starts as a Tiger. However, the left-hander has held left-hand batters to a .181 batting average this season! That’s dominance and that’s bad news for the Royals. That’s because many of Kansas City’s key hitters are left-handed sticks. The Royals roster includes six position players who are left-handed hitters and this will quickly quiet Kansas City’s offense after they enjoyed plenty of success in their series with the Twins.
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As for the Tigers, their lineup is mostly dominated by right-hand hitters. Note that the Royals Greinke has held right-handed batters to a .235 batting average this season. Also, most of Greinke’s sub-par outings have come in day games this season. Note that the Royals right-hander is 10-6 at night with a sparkling 2.00 ERA! Also he’s struggled in domes but, outdoors, Greinke is 10-6 with a 2.21 ERA. Even though the Tigers have gone over more than they usually do of late, they’ve been held to seven hits or less in four of their last six games. As for the Royals, in their last four games they did enjoy an 18-hit outburst at Minnesota but they averaged just 7 hits per game in the other three games! The Tigers are 35-23 to the under after a win this season. The Royals are 31-18 to the under in road games this season. Consider a small play on UNDER the total in Detroit on Friday.
Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on Florida Marlins -160
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We accurately connected with the Rockies yesterday afternoon as they crushed Pittsburgh 10-1, but I have them going down in Florida tonight. The Marlins are hot, having one 6 of their last 7, and they have the big edge on the hill with Josh Johnson. Johnson (11-2, 2.92 ERA) is 5-1 at home with a 2.18 ERA this season, including 9-2 against the money line. In fact, the Marlins are 17-6 in his 23 starts this season and 10-1 in his last 11 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Hammel has struggled to a 7.62 and a WHIP of 2.077 over his last 3 outings. I'll back Florida here tonight.
Stephen Nover
LOS (-112) vs ARI
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Let me see if I have this right. The Dodgers are 17 games better than the Diamondbacks this season, but this game is in the pick price range.
How's that? The Diamondbacks are pitching Dan Haren. To that I say so what. Haren is following his familiar pattern of being brilliant during the first 3 1/2 months and then tailing off during the second half.
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Haren is 1-2 with a 6.26 ERA in his last four starts. This shouldn't come as a shock to those who know Haren's history. His ERA following the All-Star Game last year was 4.19. The year before that it was 4.15. In 2006, it was 4.91.
Haren has done nothing against the Dodgers either. He's 0-3 with a 5.09 ERA in his last four starts against them. Manny Ramirez, Andre Ethier, Casey Blake and Matt Kemp are a combined 33-for-82 (.402 batting average) against him with five homers.
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Clayton Kershaw has been by far the better pitcher lately. Kershaw hasn't allowed a run in seven of his last 11 starts. His ERA during this span is 1.06. Kershaw has yielded only one run in his last four road starts.
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To get the Dodgers at this low price is a bargain.
Wunderdog
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Chicago White Sox at Oakland
Pick: Oakland -150
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When you look at the White Sox, they have to be concerned by what they haven't seen from Jose Contreras. Every once in awhile, he pitches a gem, so he seduces them into thinking he is what he once was, which has become apparent that he isn't. Contreras has pitched his teams to just a 32-52 record in his last 84 starts and on the road, he is just 12-21. He has been brutal on the road over the last three years as his best road effort in the three-year span has been 5.13, certainly not the quality he once displayed. Brett Anderson is quickly blossoming into a top of the rotation for the A's. After the A's went 0-6 in his first six starts, with his ERA over six as well, Anderson has taken charge. His last nine starts show the A's at 8-1 while his ERA is at 2.90. That's good enough for me to play the A's in this one.
Glenn McGrew
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Yankees at Mariners
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37-year old Andy Pettitte (4.14 ERA) is good, but nowhere near his prime days. In his career he has a 4.58 ERA and a 10-11 record against Seattle. At least he has a powerful offense to help him out, as we saw last night in a Bronx Bomber explosion! Seattle righty Ryan Rowland-Smith has been beat up by the Yankees in his career, with a 7.20 ERA against them. Look for plenty of runs in this one.
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Play the Yankees/Mariners Over the total.
Nelly
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LA Angels at Baltimore
Play LA ANGELS
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The Angels are facing cross-country travel but this is a team that has been unfazed by playing on the road, compiling a 32-22 record on the season including 17-5 in the last 22 away games. Los Angeles has won 21 of the last 28 meetings with Baltimore including five of six this season. Los Angeles has had incredible offensive production since the All-Star Break and enters this game batting .287 in all road games. In the last 40 games, Los Angeles has scored five runs or more 31 times. Jered Weaver could quietly sneak into the Cy Young race as he enters this game with a 12-3 record and a 3.67 ERA. Los Angeles is 17-6 when he starts and although his numbers are not as strong away from home, he has delivered great overall results. Chris Tillman escaped a lot of early trouble in his last start to only give up two runs but in just over 17 big league innings Tillman has allowed 10 runs. His home ERA is 5.79 and the Orioles offense has faded of late, batting just .246 in the last ten games. Both bullpens have had marginal results this season and the Orioles have not maintained a strong home record in recent weeks, including going 7-19 in the last 26 games played on grass. Go with the Angels here!
King Creole
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Minnesota at Indianapolis
Play UNDER 35
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Since the 2001 season, NFL ‘X’ games in which the home team is an UNDERDOG have gone a very impressive 25-53-3 O/U overall. Regardless of the OU line, these pre-season home dogs have gone UNDER 68% of the time! The most profitable Under results have been in the very first week of NFL Exhibition play as GAME ONE Home Underdogs have gone 5-14 O/U (74% Under). With Minnesota currently a 1-point road favorite over the Colts, we’ll look for history to repeat and GO LOW in tonight’s game!
Drew Gordon
Houston +115 at MILWAUKEE
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Now on a 40-29 roll with the plays I'm giving away! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Houston/Milwaukee match up...
Sorry Brewers-backers, but I'm not convinced! Bettors are clamoring over the Brew Crew's "shake-up," sending Hardy to Triple-A Nashville and cutting Hall, followed by their subsequent offensive explosion in a 12-9 win over the Padres yesterday. But it's going to take a lot more than one good game for me to go against a red-hot Wandy Rodriguez in this one!
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Speaking of Rodriguez, not only has he been on absolute fire of late, going 5-0 with a lockdown 0.77 ERA in his L7 starts! But he's also been money vs the Brewers, going 3-1 with an excellent 1.39 ERA in his L5 starts against them! That includes two superb efforts this season, holding them to just 1 run on 11 hits over 14 innings of action! You can argue that the Brewers will have a better gameplan this time around, but the same goes for the Astros vs Gallardo.
You see, both times Rodriguez beat the Brewers this season, he was opposed by Gallardo, who's also pitched well, but not nearly on the level of the Astros southpaw. He was rock-solid in his last start against the Astros, allowing 2 runs over 7 innings, but that doesn't excuse his piss-poor effort back in May, where he got tagged for 6 runs in 5 innings. True, he's been better at Miller Park, but he's going to need his offense to pick up the slack against one of the hotter pitchers in the NL tonight... Good luck on that! In the end, we're getting great value with Rodriguez, who's mowed down the Brewers already twice this season, and I don't see that changing tonight.
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Take Houston behind Rodriguez over Milwaukee and Gallardo in this MLB match up.
1♦ HOUSTON
Rocketman
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LAA Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: LAA Angels
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LA Angels are 248-161 last 3 years when playing on grass. Baltimore is 33-80 last 3 years when playing against a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season. LA Angels has won 3 in a row while Baltimore has lost 4 of their last 5. LA Angels are scoring 5.7 runs per game overall, 5.7 runs per game on the road and 5.7 runs per game against right handed starters this year. Jered Weaver is 12-3 with a 3.73 ERA overall this year, 4-2 on the road and 2-0 his last 3 starts. LA Angels are 18-7 overall vs Baltimore last 3 years including 8-3 at Baltimore. LA Angels have won 5 of 6 against Baltimore this season. Weaver is 2-1 with a 1.71 ERA overall vs Baltimore since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on the LA Angels tonight!
Lenny Del Genio
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Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays
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The Rays are not playing well right now having lost four straight and were rocked by the Angels in a three game sweep. They have been outscored 35-14 during the current losing skid and now must face Toronto ace Roy Halladay. Yes, they?ve beaten the Jays all three times Halladay has started against them this year, but Halladay has 25 K?s in 22 IP and has allowed six earned runs in those games. Payback is you know what. Take Toronto.
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on LA Dodgers -105
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Haren hasn't been so invincible of late, going 1-2 with a 6.00 ERA over his last 3 starts and his latest loss was against the lowly Nats. In fact, the Diamondbacks are 0-4 in Haren's last 4 starts vs. the Dodgers. The Dodgers have owned the Snakes to the tune of 13 wins against just 3 losses in the last 16 meetings. They are 5-1 in Kershaw's last 6 road starts and I look for them to get the job done here.
Craig Trapp
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San Diego at St Louis
Play: St Louis -1.5
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Very hot STL team taking on a outmatched lineup. SD has been better lately but not against the top teams. Today Wainright goes for STL and tries to become the first pitcher to win 14 games. The right-hander has a 1.35 ERA in his last eight starts after pitching 6 2/3 innings against Pittsburgh on Saturday, allowing one run while striking out six in a 5-3 victory. On the other side SD turns to Latos who since being called up has won 4 straight. But not against the best teams in the league and tonight STL will bash him around early. STL has won 13 of 19 and the majority of those wins have been by more than 2 runs. Take the R/L today and love the value. SCORE STL 7 - SD 2
Larry Ness
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OAK (-160) vs CWS
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The White Sox continue their road trip this weekend in Oakland, after losing 1-0 in 14 innings at Seattle on Wednesday, leaving a season-high 14 runners on base. It was the longest the White Sox had been held scoreless in one contest since a 3-0, 16-inning defeat at the California Angels on September 22, 1975. Chicago now has dropped five of seven overall and has lost 12 of 15 on the road since winning seven straight away from Chicago from June 20-July 3. Despite all this, the White Sox remain just 2 1/2 games behind the Tigers in the AL Central. The A's are 51-63 on the year and in last place in the AL West, 18 games behind the Angels. While the White Sox are the much better team, there is a reason the A's are such a solid favorite in this game and it's the pitching matchup. Jose Contreras opened the year going 0-5 with an 8.19 ERA in his first six starts (team was 0-6). Chicago sent him back to the minors but instead of pouting, the vet worked hard and when he got a second chance (was recalled in early June), went 4-2 with a 2.06 ERA into the All Star break. However, the vet looks to be "out of gas." He's 0-4 with a 6.75 ERA since the break in five starts (team is 1-4) and one wonders how much longer Guillen can keep sending the veteran out there every fifth game. Meanwhile, Oakland rookie Brett Anderson has found himself after a slow start, despite pitching for a last-place team which ranks 25th in team batting average at .255. Anderson is just 7-8 with a 4.22 ERA in 21 starts this year (A's are 10-11) but that includes a 4-1 mark with a 2.51 ERA over his last nine starts (team is 7-2). Take the A's.
GoodFella
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ATL (-130) vs PHI
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Both teams come in hot, as Philly just completed a 3 game sweep at the Cubs, and the Braves have won 5 straight & 7 of their L/8 games. Pretty simple here, Blanton has been LIT UP by the Braves this year in 3 starts: 17 IP, 16 ER, 25 hits, 6 BB, for a 8.47 ERA and a WHIP of 1.824. Jurrjens L/2 starts have both been agains the Dodgers, and he did not pitch well in either game. However, he has owned Philly in 2 starts this season: 2-0 record, 12 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 5 hits, 7 BB, 8 K's. I fully expect him to bounce back tonight at home & pitch a very good game vs a team he has had great success against. Garret Anderson, McCann, and Escobar all have had very good success vs Blanton The bullpens are about even & I just see excellent value with Jurrjens and the Braves in this spot tonight.
DAVE PRICE
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1 Unit on Toronto Blue Jays +115
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The Blue Jays are 7-3 in Halladay's last 10 road starts vs. the Rays, 47-22 in his last 69 starts vs. the American League East, and 5-2 in his last 7 starts as a road underdog. The Rays have dropped 4 in a row and are only 1-4 in Shields' last 5 starts vs. the Blue Jays. I can't refuse Doc Halladay at this price. Bet the Jays for 1 unit.