Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, August 2

Marc Lawrence

Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics
Prediction: Texas Rangers

The Rangers and Athletics open a three-game division series in Oakland Friday evening where Texas will send Alexi Ogando to the mound as they look to improve to 5-1 this season behind the right-hander in games against the AL West. Ogando opposes southpaw Tommy Milone, who has struggled going just 1-3 in team starts in this series in his MLB career. With that, look for the Rangers to improve to 5-1 the last six games in this series here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Texas.

Jimmy Boyd

St. Louis Cardinals +105

You won't find the Cardinals as an underdog very often, let alone when they have Shelby Miller on the mound. This year Miller has a 2.78 ERA with 124 strikeouts in 116.4 innings pitched. Cincinnati's Bronson Arroyo does not even come close to comparing to Miller as he has just 76 strikeouts in 138 innings pitched.

The Reds are having some major struggles at the plate right now. They have lost five of their last seven games and it is directly related to the fact that they have a .194 batting average during that seven game span. They have also managed to score just two runs per game throughout that stretch. The Cardinals are the better team with the better pitcher, and a win today should be easy to come by.

Jim Feist

Braves vs. Phillies
Play: Over 8½

Atlanta starter Kris Medlen (7-10) hasn't been able to get it going and has an ERA of 6.05 his last three starts. Atlanta is on a 17-8-3 run over the total and the over is 12-3-1 in the Braves last 16 vs. a team with a losing record. The Philadelphia Phillies bring up right-handed pitcher Ethan Martin from Triple-A Lehigh Valley to make his major-league debut Friday against the Atlanta Braves. The 24-year-old started 21 games for the Iron Pigs and has marginal stuff, with a 4.12 ERA. And when these teams meet the over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings, including 5-1-1 over the total in the last 7 meetings in Philadelphia. Play the Braves/Phillies over the total.

Freddy Wills

Baltimore Orioles -1½ +130

Chris Tillman certainly is not a household name, but very quietly he's been putting up a very solid season. He comes in posting a 3-0 record and a 2.14 ERA over his last three starts. All year he's shined during night starts with an incredible 10-1 record while his offense has really backed him up. He's got great numbers against the Mariners in 4 starts posting a 0.98 ERA and a 0.70 WHIP. The Mariners have 56 AB and a .411 OPS against him. Tillman will have to other things working for him. He's on 6 days rest where he's pitched extremely well this season and he is facing Aaron Harrang.

Notable Hot Starters L3 GS:
Chris Archer (3-0, 25 IP, 0.64 WHIP, 0.36 ERA)
Madison Bumgarner (1-2, 22 IP, 0.86 WHIP, 1.23 ERA)
Jose Fernandez (3-0, 21 IP, 0.90 WHIP, 2.14 ERA)
Jon Lester (2-1, 19.2 IP, 1.12 WHIP, 2.29 ERA)
Hector Santiago (0-3, 20 IP, 1.15 WHIP, 2.70 ERA)
Doug Fister (3-0, 20 IP, 1.05 WHIP, 1.35 ERA)
Jarred Cosart (2-1, 21 IP, 1.14 WHIP, 0.86 ERA)
Sam Deduno (3-0, 21 IP, 1.14 WHIP, 1.29 ERA)
Shelby Miller (2-1, 16.2 IP, 1.32 WHIP, 2.70 ERA)
Bronson Arroyo (2-1, 21.1 IP, 0.98 WHIP, 1.69 ERA)
Alexi Ogando (1-2, 15.1 IP, 1.30 WHIP, 2.93 ERA)
Randall Delgado (3-0, 20.2 IP, 0.97 WHIP, 1.31 ERA)
Dillon Gee (1-2, 20.2 IP, 0.82 WHIP, 1.74 ERA)

Notable Cold Starters L3 GS:
Tommy Hanson (1-2, 12 IP, 1.75 WHIP, 9.75 ERA)
Jordan Zimmerman (0-3, 15 IP, 1.80 WHIP, 8.40 ERA)
Wade Davis (1-2, 15 IP, 1.73 WHIP, 6.00 ERA)
C.C. Sabathia (0-3, 14 IP, 2.36 WHIP, 10.93 ERA)

Rob Vinciletti

Cleveland Indians vs. Miami Marlins
Play: Miami Marlins

The Marlins fit a Dominator system that plays on home favorites off a home dog win that scored 4 or less runs, vs an opponent that is off a home favored win and scored 5 or more runs, this simple set up has won 15 of 17 times the past 10 Years. If the Posted total in these 17 games is 8 or less the system excels to 11-0. The Indians are on a long home winning streak and now take to the road where they are 4-12 as a road dog from +100 to +125 and have lost 5 of the last 6 at N.L. East venues. The Marlins, mean while beat the Mets the last two nights and are 4-1 at home off a home dog win. Cleveland has Jimenez on the mound and he is 0-9 in his last 9 Road August starts, allowing a whopping 25 earned runs in his last 17 innings in those starts. He has also lost his last 2 road starts vs the Marlins. J. Fernandez counter for Miami and he has a solid 8-2 home record and a 1.57 home era. Over his last 41 innings here at home he has allowed just 6 earned runs. Look for Miami to cool off Cleveland tonight. make it Miami.

Art Aronson

Royals vs. Mets
Play: Over 8

Wade Davis (5-9, 5.50 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Davis is coming off a great outing in which he went 7 1/3's scoreless innings in a 1-0 victory over the White Sox on Saturday. So is it time to jump on the Davis bandwagon after one decent start? Obviously not. Davis has been as inconsistent as you can get this year and had failed to make it past the third inning in his previous start; the victory in fact snapped a four-start losing streak. Davis will take his horrible 4-4, 6.57 ERA road record into New York to throw opposite Dillon Gee (7-8, 4.13 ERA) who gave up four runs off six hits over seven innings of work in his team's eventual 4-1 setback to the Nats on Saturday. Gee has looked brilliant at times this season and pretty pedestrian in others; note that he sports a poor 3-5, 4.36 ERA record in all "night games" this season. These teams haven't played since 2004, but with these two confirmed "gas-cans" going head to head in the opener of this three-game set, all signs do indeed point to a higher-scoring affair; consider a second look at the "over" in this matchup.

Brad Diamond

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers

On Friday we have a key free selection in the Cubs and Dodgers afternoon affair. After back-to-back challenging road outings against Toronto and Arizona, Hyun-Lin Ryu (9-3, 3.14) returned to form with a solid effort against the Reds, hurling 7 solid innings allowing 1 earned run on 2 hits. Opposing lefty Wood (7-7, 2.79) of Chicago has been compiling solid work over his last 31 innings with just 9 earned runs hitting the plate. But, the Cubs have lost three of their last four. And, with Travis Wood starting the Cubbies show at 2-10 vs. winning units and 1-5 in game #2 of a series. With LA 16-5 in road outings, I will grab a ticket with the visiting Dodgers.

Bruce Marshall

St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds
Pick: Cincinnati Reds

The Cardinals unleashed a week's worth of frustrations last night in Pittsburgh, scoring 13 runs against the Bucs after tallying only 10 runs in the entirety of a 7-game losing streak entering PNC Park. Not sure, however, that cures all of the ills for the Redbirds, who now must face a similarly hungry Cincy side that enters tonight having lost 5 of 6 and scoring just 9 runs in the process. But the Reds are back at Great American Ballpark, where they are 32-17 this season, and look forward to facing St. Louis starter Shelby Miller, whose road efforts have lagged behind his home performances all season, as his 6.07 ERA in his last three road efforts would indicate. True, Reds starter Bronson Arroyo hasn't beaten the Cards in three previous starts this season, but has been extremely sharp in recent outings, posting a 1.69 ERA in his last three efforts.

Ben Burns

New York vs. San Diego
Pick: San Diego

With Granderson expected to return and Sabathia on the mound, the Yankees may initially seem like an obvious choice. However, a closer look reveals that its actually the Padres' starter who is currently in better form.

While he has had a few too many walks of late, Cashner is coming off back-to-back quality starts. In seven home starts this season, he's 4-2 with a stellar 2.49 ERA and 1.085 WHIP.

On the other hand, Sabathia has gotten rocked in two straight starts. He gave up seven earned runs in each of those starts. In each case, he lasted only five innings. In his previous start, he gave up eight runs in four innings, although only three of those were earned.

A closer look reveals that the Yankees lost Sabathia's last three starts by a combined score of 28-17 and that he's got a brutal 10.93 ERA and 2.357 WHIP in those games. For the season, he's 3-4 with a 5.39 ERA in 10 road starts.

The Padres have hit considerably better against southpaws than against right-handers this season. They're averaging 4.7 runs in games against left-handed starters, going 20-18 (+6.1). (The Yankees average 4.1 rpg vs. right-handers.)

The Padres are also a very respectable 29-24 (+6.1) when playing at home with a line in the +100 to -125 range.

Bryan Power

San Francisco vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa Bay

Am I missing something here? Why are the Rays available at such a bargain here against the weak-hitting Giants? Led by some phenomenal pitching, Tampa Bay played .800 baseball in the month of July. They have possibly their best pitcher, Chris Archer going tonight. This one almost seems "too easy."

Archer has a 2.39 ERA and 1.049 WHIP in his 11 starts this season. But it's what he's done lately that's really turned heads. The team has won his last seven starts, and over his previous three his ERA is 0.36 w/ a pair of complete game shutouts! He totally dominated the Yankees last time out, giving up only two hits. I realize Giants starter Madison Bumgarner also didn't allow any runs his last start either, going eight innings and allowing only four hits, but he's not nearly as effective on the road.

The problem the Giants will have this weekend is the fact they just don't hit consistently. They won yesterday, but scored only twice as that's all you need to get by the Phillies these days. Sadly, it sixth time in the last seven games San Francisco has scored three runs or less. Not coincidentally, they have lost all six of those games.

Will Rogers

Chicago vs. Detroit
Pick: Detroit -1.5

On paper, this shapes up as the most lopsided series of the weekend in Major League Baseball. The Tigers have won five straight and 9 of 10. The White Sox have lost seven straight and 10 of 11. Therefore, I have no problem taking the home team on the run line (-1.5) Friday.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Awful White Sox - Words cannot describe just how awful the White Sox have been lately. They lost 6-1 yesterday. They have scored just 15 runs total during the seven-game skid and things promise to get no better tonight against Doug Fister, who is 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA his last three starts. Chicago has the worst offense in the American League. They are just 5-16 their last 21 games at Comerica Park. They have lost 13 of 16 games overall.

2. Surging Tigers - Meanwhile, Detroit is finally living up to its advanced billing. They now own MLB's best run differential at +132, tied w/ St. Louis. They will likely get Miguel Cabrera back tonight. He's obviously a major reason the team is averaging 5.7 runs per game at home this season.

3. X-Factor - As if being infinitely better in every facet of the game wasn't enough, Detroit also had the day off yesterday while Chicago had to play in Cleveland.

Robert Ferringo

Take Tampa Bay (-1.5, +115) over San Francisco

There is a ton of attention being given to the Los Angeles Dodgers for their amazing run over the last two months. But Tampa Bay has been nearly as good, going 23-4 in their 27 games prior to Wednesday. Having Madison Bumgarner on the hill for San Francisco should help keep the moneyline in a reasonable area for this game, and if it is less than -150 I would say just play this one straight up. Bumgarner has been awesome, but the Giants have lost his last two starts, and they are a sinking ship. The Giants are currently in last place in the National League West, and they are a complete disaster. San Francisco has been on a 7-18 free fall. They are 18-37 in their last 55 games overall, and they are just 5-12 in their last 17 road games. Even worse, San Francisco is 6-22 in their last 28 games as a road underdog. These are just two teams going in opposite directions. Young Chris Archer has won seven straight starts and has just a 2.39 ERA on the season. He has a miniscule 0.29 ERA in his last four starts, giving up just a single earned run in his last 31 innings. I like the home team to take care of business here, and I look for the Rays to continue their ascension.

CHRIS JORDAN

My free winner for tonight is on the Pittsburgh Pirates against the travel-weary Colorado Rockies, who come out of Atlanta beaten and worn out, and now have to play the best team in the bigs. And besides, the Bucs owe me big time, after losing last night.

I think the Pirates will be a tad-bit pissed off after being routed 13-0 by St. Louis last night, and will be out to pick up on the winning run that helped them overtake the Cardinals for first place in the National League Central.

The Rockies were outscored 40-13 in suffering a four-game sweep against Atlanta, and has lost eight of 11 games. They're now a season-worst eight games below .500, and tonight they get a taste of young Gerrit Cole, the Pirates' top prospect who was brought up earlier this season and has been an asset to the rotation.

I'm not listing anyone, cause the Pirates should win regardless. Lay the chalk.

5* PITTSBURGH

JEFF BENTON

Your Friday freebie is for the Rockies and Pirates to stay Under the total.

Colorado plated 8 runs on Monday night in their series opener against Atlanta, but the bats have really gone quiet since, as the Rockies scored 3 on Tuesday, were shutout on Wednesday, and managed just 2 runs on Thursday night in the finale.

This is the first meeting of the year between the teams, and 4 of 5, and 6 of the last 9 overall played between these senior circuit clubs have stayed Under the total.

Jhoulys Chacin has seen the Under come in in 3 of his last 4 starts. On the road this season Chacin sports a 1.90 ERA.

Gerrit Cole counters for the Bucs, and he has allowed 3 runs or less in ALL 9 of his big league starts, while the Under has banked in each of his last 4 assignments.

Run scoring at a premium this Friday night.

Rockies-Pirates to stay Under the total.

3* COLORADO-PITTSBURGH UNDER