SPORTS ADVISORS
NFL PRESEASON
Tennessee (2-0 SU and ATS) at Dallas (0-1 SU and ATS)
The Cowboys, coming off a blowout loss in their exhibition opener, aim to rebound as they christen their palatial new stadium against the Titans.
Dallas was dealt a 31-10 pounding Aug. 13 at Oakland, getting outscored 21-3 in the second half. Quarterback Tony Romo, who played just two possessions last week but led a touchdown drive that gave the Cowboys a 7-3 lead, will likely see much more time this week. Though coach Wade Phillips was non-committal, starters are expected to play through two quarters and possibly into the second half. Veteran QB Jon Kitna will relieve Romo, and rookies Stephen McGee and Rudy Carpenter could also see some action late.
Tennessee, coming off a 27-20 home win over Tampa Bay last week laying 4½ points, is already playing its third preseason contest of the year after opening with a 21-18 win over Buffalo in the Hall of Fame Game. QB Kerry Collins, who threw two picks last week while playing four series, will get the start, and first-teamers are expected to play well into the second quarter and perhaps the entire first half. Vince Young, who was a solid 9 of 14 for 131 yards and a TD last week, will follow Collins, and veteran Patrick Ramsey and rookie Alex Mortensen could see some time, as well.
The Cowboys are 3-6 ATS (4-5 SU) in preseason play since coach Wade Phillips took over in 2007, failing to cash in six of the last seven. However, Dallas is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in its last four August home games. In fact, dating to 2004, Dallas is 9-0-1 SU and 7-3 ATS as a preseason host.
The Titans are now on an 8-2 SU roll in preseason play since 2007, though they are just 5-4-1 ATS. Tennessee split its two road games last August, at Atlanta and Green Bay, but went 0-2 ATS, and they are 5-4-1 ATS in true exhibition roadies dating to 2004.
The over has hit in six of Dallas’ last eight preseason starts and is on a 7-2 tear for Tennessee in exhibition play.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS and OVER
Kansas City (0-1 SU and ATS) at Minnesota (1-0 SU and ATS)
The Brett Favre era begins in earnest for the Vikings when they play their preseason home opener, welcoming the Chiefs to the Metrodome.
Minnesota is coming off a 13-3 road victory as a three-point chalk against Indianapolis last Friday. QB Sage Rosenfels started and led a pair of scoring drives in just over a quarter of that contest. However, Favre will get the nod tonight just days after being signed, though the 39-year-old vet is only expected to play a couple of series at most. Tarvaris Jackson, slated to start before the Favre acquisition, will relieve the future Hall of Famer, and John David Booty will finish out the game. Rosenfels is expected to sit out while resting an ankle injury.
Kansas City lost to Houston 16-10 last Saturday as a 2½-point home favorite in new coach Todd Haley’s debut. QB Matt Cassel, who played three series in the driving rain last week, will again get the nod to start and will likely play the entire first half, followed by Brodie Croyle and Tyler Thigpen.
The Vikings are 8-5 ATS (6-6-1 SU) in preseason play under coach Brad Childress, who took over in 2006. They dropped both home exhibition tilts last year (1-1 ATS), but they are 6-4 SU and ATS in the preseason at the dome dating to 2004.
The Chiefs are on a 1-4 ATS slide in preseason play and have had little success in August over the past few years, going 5-16 SU and 4-17 ATS since 2004. The numbers are even worse on the highway since 2004, with K.C. going a paltry 1-9 SU and ATS. The Chiefs are also just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 preseason tilts as an underdog.
Minnesota is on a 3-0 “under” run in the preseason, and Kansas City’s loss last week fell far short of the 38-point posted price, ending a 3-1 exhibition “over” surge for the Chiefs.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA
Atlanta (0-1, 1-0 ATS) at St. Louis (1-0 SU and ATS)
New coach Steve Spagnuolo makes his home debut with the Rams when they take on the Falcons at the Edward Jones Dome.
St. Louis scored a touchdown midway through the fourth quarter last Friday to get the win and cover in a 23-20 victory as a three-point road underdog against the Jets. Starting QB Marc Bulger won’t be in the lineup this week after breaking the pinkie on his throwing hand, so veteran Kyle Boller will start and likely play the entire first half, Spagnuolo said, followed by Brock Berlin and rookie Keith Null.
Atlanta gave up a field goal as time expired in a 27-26 loss at Detroit on Saturday, but still covered as a three-point pup. Second-year coach Mike Smith said QB Matt Ryan and the rest of the starters will go 12 to 18 plays tonight – a little longer than last week – but Smith wouldn’t divulge the rest of his QB rotation. Last week, Chris Redman relieved Ryan and D.J. Shockley came on after the half and played into the fourth quarter, followed by rookie John Parker Wilson.
The Rams have cashed in their last three preseason contests (2-1 SU), and they are 7-3 SU the past five years in home exhibition affairs (5-5 ATS). With Bulger out, the Rams are once again a ‘dog in this contest, a role in which they’ve gone just 4-7 ATS dating to the 2004 preseason campaign, including last week’s cover at New York.
The Falcons are 4-1 ATS (3-2 SU) in August under Smith, including a 3-0 ATS mark on the highway after last week’s cover in Detroit. Atlanta, which hasn’t had a losing preseason in any of the past four summers, is 11-7 SU and 12-5-1 ATS in preseason play since 2005.
The under has hit in St. Louis’ last three home exhibition contests, and the under for Atlanta was on a 3-0 uptick and a 5-2 overall run before last week’s game at Detroit soared over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (76-45) at Boston (69-51)
The red-hot Yankees, sporting the best record in baseball, trot out southpaw Andy Pettitte (9-6, 4.09 ERA) for the opener of a three-game weekend set at Fenway Park against the archrival Red Sox, who are expected to counter with right-hander Brad Penny (7-7, 5.22).
New York snapped a two-game hiccup by winning two in a row to close out a three-game set at Oakland, capped by a 3-2 victory Wednesday night. The Yankees are on a 14-3 tear in their last 17 games and are on further streaks of 8-2 on the road, 23-7 inside the A.L. East, 14-5 in series openers and 35-17 against winning teams.
Boston completed a three-game sweep at Toronto with an 8-1 rout Thursday night, bolstered by two J.D. Drew home runs in back-to-back at-bats. The Sox are on upswings of 22-8 at home following a road trip of seven or more days, 37-16 overall at Fenway and 36-17 in series openers, but they’re still on slides of 3-6 in division tilts and 1-10 as an underdog.
The Red Sox won the first eight clashes this season between these rivals and had won nine in a row overall before New York posted a four-game home sweep earlier this month. The Yankees shut out Boston twice in that series and outscored the Sox by a combined 25-8 total. However, Boston is still 7-0 in the last seven Fenway meetings between these two.
The Yankees have won three in a row behind Pettitte, with the lefty allowing just three runs over 19 2/3 innings in that stretch, for a 1.37 ERA. Last Friday at Seattle, he allowed two runs on six hits and a walk while striking out 10 in six innings of a 4-2 victory, though he got a no-decision. Pettitte is 5-2 with a 3.17 ERA in 11 road starts this year, and he’s a solid 16-9 with a 3.63 ERA in 34 career appearances (32 starts) against Boston, throwing seven shutout innings in a 5-2 home win Aug. 9.
New York is on rolls behind Pettitte of 17-8 overall, 5-0 on Friday, 6-1 in series openers, 6-2 on the road and 42-20 in division play.
The Red Sox have lost in seven of Penny’s last nine outings, including a 7-2 setback at Texas on Saturday, in which he allowed four runs on eight hits and four walks in 5 2/3 innings. Penny has allowed four runs or more four times in his last nine starts. The righty is 5-2 with a 4.70 ERA in 12 home starts this season, and he’s 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA in two career starts against the Yanks. In his only outing this year against New York, he threw six shutout innings in a 4-3 home win June 11.
Boston is 6-2 in its last eight series openers behind Penny, but the Sox are on a 2-5 slide with the 31-year-old facing winning teams.
The under for New York is on surges of 9-4 overall, 5-1 in the A.L. East and 7-2-2 after a day off, and with Pettitte throwing, the under is on additional rolls of 40-16-2 overall, 21-6-1 on the road and 20-8-2 inside the division. Likewise, the under for Boston is on stretches of 4-1 in division play, 8-2 at home against lefties and 4-1 behind Penny in division contests, although the total has gone high in seven of the Sox’s last eight home games.
Finally, the over is 5-1 in Pettitte’s last six starts against the Sox, but overall, under is on runs of 5-1-1 in the last seven clashes between these teams and 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings at Fenway Park.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
DUNKEL
San Francisco at Colorado
The Giants look to take advantage of Colorado's 3-8 record in Aaron Cook's last 11 starts against the NL West. San Francisco is the pick (+165) according to Dunkel, which has the Giants favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+165)
Game 901-902: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Owings) 14.892; Pittsburgh (Morton) 13.946
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+125); Under
Game 903-904: Milwaukee at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Looper) 14.370; Washington (Martin) 14.248
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-140); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-140); Under
Game 905-906: Philadelphia at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 17.052; NY Mets (Pelfrey) 14.370
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-175); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-175); Under
Game 907-908: Florida at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Sanchez) 14.818; Atlanta (Vazquez) 16.012
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 909-910: Arizona at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Petit) 14.631; Houston (Oswalt) 14.373
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Houston (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+180); Over
Game 911-912: San Francisco at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Sanchez) 16.183; Colorado (Cook) 15.456
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Colorado (-175); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+165); Under
Game 913-914: St. Louis at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lohse) 16.024; San Diego (Richard) 13.436
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-145); Under
Game 915-916: Chicago Cubs at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Wells) 15.403; LA Dodgers (Wolf) 15.317
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+140); Under
Game 917-918: Seattle at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (French) 16.227; Cleveland (Huff) 15.563
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+110); Over
Game 919-920: LA Angels at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (O'Sullivan) 15.777; Toronto (Rzepczynski) 13.583
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 2; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-120); 10
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+110); Over
Game 921-922: NY Yankees at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Pettitte) 16.312; Boston (Penny) 17.470
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 11
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-135); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+125); Over
Game 923-924: Texas at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Nippert) 15.415; Tampa Bay (Kazmir) 15.888
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-150); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-150); Under
Game 925-926: Minnesota at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Blackburn) 15.119; Kansas City (Hochevar) 14.605
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-125); Under
Game 927-928: Baltimore at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Guthrie) 14.402; White Sox (Floyd) 15.327
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-190); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-190); Over
Game 929-930: Detroit at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Jackson) 16.090; Oakland (Gonzalez) 14.971
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-140); Over
WNBA
The Mercury look to build on their 7-2 ATS record in their last 9 games against the Eastern Conference. Phoenix is the pick (-7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Mercury favored by 11 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-7 1/2)
Game 601-602: Connecticut at New York
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 114.055; New York 112.208
Dunkel Line & Total: Connecticut by 2; 138
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 2 1/2; 143
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+2 1/2); Under
Game 603-604: Los Angeles at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 109.040; San Antonio 113.233
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 4; 134 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 2 1/2; 141 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-2 1/2); Under
Game 605-606: Washington at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 106.687; Phoenix 118.053
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 11 1/2; 183
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 7 1/2; 180
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-7 1/2); Over
CFL
Winnipeg at BC
The Lions look to take advantage of a Winnipeg team that is 1-5-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. BC is the pick (-7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Lions favored by 10. Dunkel Pick: BC (-7 1/2)
Game 441-442: Saskatchewan at Montreal
Dunkel Ratings: Saskatchewan 109.156; Montreal 124.352
Dunkel Line: Montreal by 15; 57 1/2
Vegas Line: Montreal by 12; 54
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-12); Over
Game 443-444: Winnipeg at BC
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 102.369; BC 112.602
Dunkel Line: BC by 10; 56 1/2
Vegas Line: BC by 7 1/2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: BC (-7 1/2); Over
NFL
Game 405-406: Tennessee at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 121.843; Dallas 120.832
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 1; 34
Vegas Line: Dallas by 3; 37
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+3); Under
Game 407-408: Kansas City at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 116.745; Minnesota 121.627
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 5; 39
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 3; 36
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-3); Over
Game 409-410: Atlanta at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 120.467; St. Louis 121.247
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 35
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 3; 37
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+3); Under
Cajun Sports
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Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
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This is the second game of a four-game set between the host LA Dodgers and the visiting Chicago Cubs. At the time of this writing we do not know the outcome of Game One in this series so this game could be to take a 2-0 lead or to even the series at a game apiece. In either case we expect the Dodgers to come out on top tonight with Randy Wolf on the bump with his 7-6 record and ERA of 3.49 on the season. He is 1-2 at home with an ERA of 4.03 but the Dodgers have posted a record of 9-3 when Wolf takes the hill at Chavez Ravine. Over his last three outings he is perfect going 2-0 with an ERA of 3.18 and LA is 3-0 in those three games behind him. LA is 20-4 (+15.3) in home games vs. an NL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season the last 2 seasons. Wolf is 10-0 (+10.4) in home games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse the last 2 seasons. The Cubs are 4-22 (-17.4) as an underdog of +100 or higher this season and 4-18 (-13.4) as a road underdog of +100 or higher this season. We will lay the chalk with the host as the Dodgers grab a win in Game Two of this series on Friday night at the Ravine.
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Graded Selection: 2* Los Angeles Dodgers 3 Chicago Cubs 2
Marc Lawrence
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Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays
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The Rays open a 3-game series with the Rangers when Scott Kazmir opposes Dustin Nippert tonight at the Trop in Tampa. Kazmir enters tonight game riding a 5-hame home team start win streak. He's also 7-1 with a 2.06 ERA in his career team starts against Texas. With Nippert reeling with 3 straight road losses, look for the Rays to rout the Rangers here this evening.
Rob Vinciletti
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New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox
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Boston was totally embarrassed,getting swept in their 4 game series with the Yanks in NY.Boston had won the prior 8 games vs the Yankees before the beating in the Bronx.Tonight they come home off back to back road wins.The same situation as NY.Boston is still 8-4 vs NY. this year and the Yankees have lost all 6 games in Boston this year.However the Redsox are an underdog here.For technical analysis we go the systems chart and see that road favorites such as the Yankees in off a road favored win,scoring 4 or less taking on an opponent also off a road game are just 3-11 straight up.IF the total in these games is 10 or higher our road favorites go from 3-11 to 0-5.In the pitching matchup the Yankees have A.Pettite going and he has been solid on the road this year.In his only start in Boston this year he went 6 innings and allowed 4 runs.Serviceable but not great.Boston counters with B.Penny tonight.In his last 2 home starts vs NY.he has allowed 1 earned run in 13 innings.Penny teams are 4-0 vs the Yankees and he has a solid 2.31 era in those starts.Which indicates that he can navigate successfully through that lineup.The Yankees are just 1-3 in road games when the total is 10 to 10.5.Boston is 14-5 at home with a 10 to 10.5 total.The Redsox average 5.7 runs per game at home and will seek immediate revenge for the sweep.
JIM FEIST
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MILWAUKEE BREWERS / WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Take WASHINGTON NATIONALS
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Milwaukee comes to town and faces a surprisingly hot Washington pitcher. The Nationals are 4-1 in the last 5 starts made by 26-year old J.D. Martin, who has a 2.35 ERA his last three starts. He doesn't walk anyone, which is a huge plus in a big park like this. The Brewers may be favored with a 10-game winner on the hill, but Braden Looper has not thrown well, with a 5.03 ERA. The team is 1-4 in his last 5 starts. Play the Nationals.
DAVE COKIN
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TEXAS RANGERS / TAMPA BAY RAYS
Take TEXAS RANGERS
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The Rangers continue to play terrific ball and I think they're a good value tonight at Tampa Bay. The Rays are tough at home, but Scott Kazmir has been extremely erratic and I trust Rangers righty Dustin Nippert more right now. This game sure looks like a tossup, which makes Texas a decent play just on the line value alone.
BIG AL
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NEW YORK YANKEES / BOSTON RED SOX
TAKE UNDER
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Yankee veteran lefthander Andy Pettitte is quietly having one of his best seasons in years, and if you took a poll amongst the Yankee players who was their "unsung hero" for 2009, they likely would tell you it's the 37-year-old southpaw, now in his third year back in pinstripes after having played his first ten Major League seasons in the Bronx before switching over to the NL. Pettitte has done everything the Yanks could have hoped for with a 9-6 record and 4.09 ERA and 13 quality starts and he would have quite a few more wins on the year if his teammates had given him better run support in many of his outings. It hasn't quite been the same kind of year for first-time Red Sox starter Brad Penny, but the veteran righthander has a funny way of showing up for big games like this one. For example, In two career starts against the Yankees, he is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA over 11 innings and he also pitches markedly better at home than he does on the road, posting a 5-2 record in 12 starts in Fenway so far. Pettitte last started against the Red Sox on Aug. 9 in New York and fired seven scoreless, five-hit innings but took a no-decision in New York's 5-2 win. Take the 'under.'
Vernon Croy
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Detroit Tigers vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: Detroit Tigers
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The Tigers have the superior pitcher on the mound tonight with Edwin Jackson (9-5, 2.85 ERA). Jackson has pitched solid on the road this season with an ERA of just 2.79 over 13 starts and he pitched solid in his only start against the Athletics allowing just 6 hits and 1 earned run over 7 innings. Gio Gonzalez (4-3, 5.88) has struggled at home this season with an ERA of 9.00 over 5 starts and he is 0-2 with an ERA of 14.84 in two career starts against the Tigers. The Tigers opponents are hitting just .207 as a team against them over their last 7 games while averaging just 2.9 rpg and the Tigers are 6-1 in Jackson's last 7 starts as a favorite. Take the Detroit Tigers Friday night.
Bobby Maxwell
St. Louis -145 at SAN DIEGO
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It's a baseball FREE winner tonight as I give out the Cardinals in San Diego against the Padres.
Feel free to lay the chalk in this one as the Cardinals absolutely own the Padres. St. Louis has owned this team for years and has won nine straight and gone 58-20 in the last 78 meetings.
Thursday night the Cardinals got an early grand slam and made it hold up, winning 5-1 agaisnt San Diego at Petco Park.
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Kyle Lohse (5-7, 4.58 ERA) is on the mound for St. Louis and they have won his last two outings, including a Sunday outing against the Padres when he gave up five runs in 5.1 innings but his offense delivered a 7-5 victory when they rallied for three runs in the ninth. In his Aug. 10 start against the Reds, Lohse was sharp, allowing one run on four hits over six innings of a 4-1 win.
Lefty Clayton Richard (2-0, 4.71 with San Diego) makes it a rematch from Sunday. He allowed three runs on six hits in 3.2 innings before leaving the game after getting hit by a line-drive off the bat of Albert Pujols.
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The Cardinals have won seven of their last eight games and 17 of their last 22 overall. They are 5-0 as a road favorite, 6-1 against the N.L. West and 7-0 on Fridays. Meanwhile, the Padres are just 3-9 on Fridays, 18-43 as an underdog and 7-20 as a home 'dog.
St. Louis dominates this one. Play the Cardinals.
3♦ ST. LOUIS
Sports Gambling Hotline
Cubs at LOS ANGELES -115
Currently on a 20-9-1 comp play run the last 30 days.
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We have to side with the host again tonight at Chavez Ravine, as the Cubs come into this one having lost 3 of their last 4 on the road, and have also lost 8 of their last 11 overall.
The Dodgers got the job done 7-2 last night, and are a money-making 19-7 in Randy Wolf's last 26 starts as a favorite.
Los Angeles has also won 6 of the last 8 series meetings against the Cubbies. Keep in mind Chicago is a full 10 games under .500 on the road this season, and starter Randy Wells last road start was an ugly 5 inning, 5 run loss at Colorado.
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Joe Torre's team has certainly cooled off after their blistering start, but they are still 38-24 at home, and we feel this is a very cheap price on the home favorite this Friday night.
Play on the men in blue.
4♦ LOS ANGELES
Dominic Fazzini
N.Y. Yankees -120 at BOSTON
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The Rangers rocked MInnesota 11-1 as a run-line play Thursday night, giving me eight wins in my last 12 complimentary selections! Now I'm turning my attention to the big series in Beantown tonight to pick up another victory.
The Yankees have lost seven straight games at Fenway Park, but they had also lost eight straight overall against the Red Sox before sweeping their AL East rivals in four straight games at Yankee Stadium earlier this month.
New York starter Andy Pettitte (9-6, 4.09 ERA) has given up two runs or less in his last four outings. He also has pitched well on the road this year, going 5-2 with a 3.17 ERA in 11 starts away from the Bronx.
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The veteran left-hander is 16-9 with a 3.63 ERA in 34 games (32 starts) against the Red Sox, and he threw seven shutout innings against them in a no-decision on Aug. 9.
Boston starter Brad Penny (7-7, 5.22) has not panned out like Sox fans hoped he would this season. The hard-throwing right-hander is 0-3 with a 7.54 ERA over his last four outings, and 5-2 with a 4.70 ERA at Fenway this year.
He has pitched well in two career starts against the Yankees, going 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA. Penny threw six shutout innings against them on June 11, but New York is playing a lot better now.
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The Yankees are 25-8 since the All-Star break, 14-3 since Aug. 2 and 5-2 on their current road trip. The Bronx Bombers are obviously no strangers to Fenway, so I don't see them slowing down at all today, especially with Pettitte on the mound. Take the Yankees in this one.
3♦ N.Y. YANKEES
Jack Clayton
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Chiefs at Vikings
Pick: Under
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Two short passing teams, KC has no quarterback play and both teams will run the ball a lot, killing the clock. The Vikings won by double digits last week.....and scored only 13 points! Play the Chiefs/Vikings Under the total.
Tom Freese
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St Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres
Prediction: Under
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St. Louis is 11-5 UNDER vs. NL West teams and they are 5-1-2 UNDER vs. a starter with a WHIP of over 1.30. The Cardinals are 15-6-3 UNDER their last 24 games as favorites and they are 11-4 UNDER in the last 15 starts made by Kyle Lohse after allowing 2 or less runs in their last game. San Diego starter Clayton Richard has allowed just 8 runs total in his 3 starts with the Padres. San Diego is 4-1 UNDER when the Total is 7.0 to 8.5. The Padres are 6-2-1 UNDER at home vs. the Cardinals. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
Chris Jordan
N.Y. Yankees at BOSTON +110
Hard to believe I’d back the Sox in this one, but it might also be hard to believe the Eagles lost last night to a starter-deprived Colts team and that Chad Ochocino would kick an extra point. But, anything’s possible.
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And with this one in Beantown, I believe the Red Sox will be ready for the Yankees, who are back from the West Coast after salvging their three-game series with a 3-2 victory Wednesday night. Meanwhile, Boston completed a three-game sweep at Toronto with an 8-1 rout last night, led by two J.D. Drew home runs in back-to-back at-bats. And despite being swept by the Bombers in the Bronx in their previous series, the Sox are on upticks of 22-8 at home following a road trip of seven or more days, 37-16 overall at Fenway and 36-17 in series openers. Plus, Boston is 7-0 in the last seven Fenway meetings between these two.
Now, here’s where it gets hairy … I know Andy Pettitte is on fire, much better than Brad Penny, but this game falls under one of the best systems to bet, and I’m siding with the Red Sox.
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You don’t have to list either pitcher, as far as I’m concerned, but for the record, Penny is 5-2 in 12 home starts this season, and is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA in two career starts against the Yanks. Boston is also 6-2 in its last eight series openers behind Penny.
1♦ RED SOX