BOB HARVEY
Chicago Cubs at LA Dodgers
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With both offenses struggling and some very consistent arms on the mound tonight in Game 2, look for the Dodgers and Cubs to stay Under the posted total in LA.
The Dodgers and Cubs are both struggling offensively. Combine that with a pair of solid starting pitches and you've got the makings of a nice Under play.
Joe TorreAfter a blazing start that saw them go 13-0 to start the home portion of their schedule, the Dodgers have come back down to earth. Since the All-Star break LA has been a a sub-.500 baseball team. Pitching has been a problem, especially the bullpen. The starting rotation has been hit by injuries and the team is still looking for a number five starter. The once healthy 10-game lead the Dodgers enjoyed over the Rockies and Giants was 3½ games after Thursday night's action.
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One of the biggest culprits in the Dodgers offensive slide is Manny Ramirez. The dreadlocked one, who has been hitting either third or fourth in the batting order, is struggling. Since returning from his 50-game suspension, Manny has been quiet. In fact since July 22 he's knocked in eight runs and homered twice. That's not the kind of production you expect from a guy making $20 million dollars a year. It makes you wonder if Frank McCourt rues giving Manny that big fat contract that will pay him $20 million next year as well.
Manny hasn't been the only problem. Rafael Furcal has been a bust as the Dodgers leadoff man is batting just .263. Russell Martin has been just awful and has seen a consistent dropoff of his numbers over the past three seasons. Outside of Andre Eithier and Matt Kemp, LA doesn't have much in the way of power. Frankly, the Dodgers were a better team with Juan Pierre playing instead of Ramirez. That's just one man's opinion.
The Dodgers rank third in the majors in batting average and ninth in runs scored. So why the problem scoring and winning games lately? It's as simple case as failing to hit with runners in scoring posistion. When the Dodgers were on their first half tear they were getting the clutch hits and dramatic walk-off homers. Now it's the other teams getting the big two out hits. Things are finally evening out for the Blue Crew.
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The Cubs have pretty much been a one man gang. As Derek Lee goes, so goes the Cubs. Lee has 24 home runs and 83 RBIs. As a team, the Cubs are 21st in runs per game and 26th in batting average. Having one of the best pitching staffs in baseball has been the key. The Chicago staff is ranked third in quality starts, fourth in strikeouts, fifth in ERA and sixth in WHIP.
Rookie Randy Wells goes for the Cubs tonight and boasts an 11-7 record with and a 3.01 ERA. He's been as steady as any starter in the Cubs rotation. In his only apperance against the Dodgers in May, he and Randy Wolf were involved in a pitchers duel that the Dodgers won 2-1 with total of 9 in the game.
Wolf has been the Dodgers' most reliable arm. While not as flashy as Chad Billingsley or Clayton Kershaw, Wolf has been a model of consistency. He's 2-0 in his last three starts with an ERA of 3.01 and a WHIP of 0.93. On the year, Wolf is 7-6 with the Dodgers 16-10 in all of his starts.
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The writing on the wall is clear. The Dodgers and Cubs aren't hitting much and until they show me otherwise I'm staying low with these guys. Take the Under tonight.
Pick: Cubs-Dodgers Under 8
VEGAS EXPERTS
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Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals
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At first, we worried about playing Nick Blackburn on the road, but the Twins are a very strong 8-1 away from the Homer Dome since the start of last season when seeking revenge for a loss as a home favorite. They have won 13 of their last 21 games in this ballpark and the Royals really struggle vs. righties (4.1 runs per game). Furthermore, KC is 12-23 at home off a loss this season.
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Play on: Minnesota
Tommy Gill
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Minnesota Vikings -2.5
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The Vikings looked very impressive in their first win of the year holding Indy to 3 points in that game. The Vikings are very deep on defense and with KC losing at home by 6 to Houston they only could get 10 points in that game. Since the addition of Farve to the Vikings that makes them a very deep team at the QB position and overall better depth than KC. KC was down 13-0 at home in their first preseason game. Now I believe that the Vikings will have the depth that we need to win this game and cover the spread Friday Night.
Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on Boston Red Sox +115
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This is a big time revenge game for the Red Sox after getting swept in a 4-game series in New York from August 6th-9th. The Red Sox are still 8-4 against the Yankees this season and a perfect 6-0 at home and you can be rest assured they've had this one circled. This series is very important for the wild card race, but it also could go a long way in deciding if Boston can still challenge the Yanks for the A.L. East. Pettitte has been very good for the Yanks of late, but Boston is very familiar with him and has scorched lefty starters this season. The Red Sox are 8-4 in Penny's home starts this season and he is a perfect 4-0 against the money line versus the Yankees in his career with an ERA of 2.31. The Red Sox are worth a unit tonight in this extreme revenge spot at home as an underdog.
EZWINNERS
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Baltimore Orioles @ Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox -1.5
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The White Sox starting pitcher Gavin Floyd's split stats are like day and night. Floyd has pitched very well home and has been hammered on the road this season. Floyd is only 5-5 with a 5.38 ERA on the road while going 5-2 with a 2.38 ERA at U.S. Cellular Field. Baltimore starting pitcher Jeremy Guthrie is 0-2 in his last three starts with an ERA of 7.64 and is among the league leaders in losses and home runs allowed. Guthrie has been horrible this season and has not had much success against the White Sox in his career posting a 1-3 record with a 5.06 ERA lifetime against Chicago. The White Sox are 24-6 in Floyd's last thirty home starts and I look for a big win by Chicago here. Play the White Sox on the runline.
THE SPREAD
New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
NY Yankees are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing Boston
NY Yankees are 4-9 SU in their last 13 games when playing Boston
Boston is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Pick: Boston
Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Indians
Seattle is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Seattle is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cleveland is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cleveland's last 8 games when playing at home against Seattle
Pick: Seattle
Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals
Milwaukee is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 9 games
Washington is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Washington's last 19 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
Pick: Milwaukee
Lenny Del Genio
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Kansas City Chiefs at Minnesota Vikings
Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs
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Here we have a Week 2 NFL preseason matchup featuring a pair of teams that experienced very different opening week results. We were all over Minnesota as our Non-Conference Dog of the Year and apparently you listened as the line moved significantly through the week to the point the Vikings were actually favored by a couple of points by kickoff. Then, they rewarded us and the rest of their backers with a convincing 13-3 win over perennial preseason weakling Indianapolis.
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Kansas City, meanwhile, let down 1st year HC Todd Haley with a less than inspiring 16-10 home loss to the Texans. The game, which was played in a downpour, wasnt actually that close as the Chiefs trailed 16-3 entering the final quarter. Still, one positive that Haley can take away from the opener was that his team actually outgained Houston 307-280. A -3 turnover ratio is what killed them.
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As Im sure youve heard by now, Minnesota has decided to lure Brett Favre out of his retirement. Bad move in our opinion, much worse than the Eagles deciding to sign Mike Vick, because the Vikings need actual results from Favre, something he may not be able to provide at his advanced age.
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As for this game, underdogs playing in this week of preseason are 27-8 ATS the last 10 seasons if off a SU loss the week prior. Look for the Favre situation to not only be a distraction, but to depress the likes of Sage Rosenfels, who actually looked quite good in the opener. Kansas City will want to win for its new head coach and is due for a road win in preseason play after going 1-9 ATS away from Arrowhead during Herm Edwards tenure.
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Play on Kansas City.
John Ryan
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LA Sparks vs. SA Silver Stars
Play: SA Silver Stars -2.5
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on San Antonio as they face Los Angeles set to start at 8:00 EST. AiS shows a 72% probability that SA will win this game by 3 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 33-9 for 79% winners since 1997. Play on home teams playing on back-to-back days, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% after 15 or more games. Fine tuning this system a notch to include just home favorites improves the system to a remarkable 25-5 ATS for 83% winners since 1997. SA is projected to have a 90% probability of scoring between 72 and 77 points in this game. Note that LA is an imperfect 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games when they allow 72 to 77 points in a game over the last 2 seasons. Take San Antonio.
LT Profits
Detroit Tigers @ Oakland Athletics
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Edwin Jackson is having a breakthrough season for the Detroit Tigers, and with Gio Gonzalez pitching better lately for the Oakland Athletics lately, we are looking for an Under in Oakland tonight.
Jackson is 9-5, but the real story has been his 2.85 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 157.2 innings, which helped earn him his first All-Star appearance this year. He is finally fulfilling the enormous potential that the Tampa Bay Rays saw in him while sticking with him through some terrible seasons. Jackson already has one good start vs. the Athletics this year, allowing one run on six hits in seven innings at Comerica Park.
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Now Gonzalez did have a bad outing vs. the Chicago White Sox in his last start last Saturday, but he had allowed three runs or less in his previous four starts including two scoreless outings. Furthermore, he pitched reasonably well the last time he faced the Tigers, allowing three runs in five innings back in June, and he has the support of what has been an excellent Oakland bullpen that has posted a 2.48 ERA over the last 10 games.
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Moreover, the Detroit bullpen has been just as good with a 2.84 ERA over that same span, so the probable lack of late tack-on runs should also benefit the Under.
Pick: Tigers/Athletics Under 8
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Colorado Rockies -158
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This play fades the Giants' Jonathan Sanchez, who has been awful on the road this season. The Giants are 1-10 in his road starts, during which he has posted an ERA of 5.37 and a WHIP of 1.574. Plus, Sanchez is 1-3 lifetime against Colorado with an ERA of 7.30 and a WHIP of 1.730. Here's the clincher: Sanchez is 0-9 against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher this season, losing by an average score of 1.9 to 5.7. Take the Rockies.
JR TIPS
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Yankees at Red Sox
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The New York Yankees look to snap their seven-game losing streak at Fenway and put the rival Red Sox further behind them in the playoff race.The Yankees (76-45) have been rolling after the All-star break winning seven of 10 games and all three series they've played. New York has won five straight series overall, and is 25-8 since the All-Star break. The Red Sox (69-51) enter this series with having dropped nine of 13, but appeared to be getting back to form with their three-game sweep in Toronto. J.D. Drew went 4 for 4 with two homers in Thursday night's 8-1 victory and Victor Martinez went deep for the second straight contest as Boston hit multiple home runs for the sixth game in a row.The Yankees will send Andy Pettitte (9-6, 4.09 ERA) to the mound for the series opener. The veteran left-hander has given up two runs or fewer in each of his last four starts and Pettitte threw seven scoreless innings against the Red Sox on Aug. 9th.He's 16-9 with a 3.63 ERA in 34 appearances versus Boston.The Red Sox counter with Brad Penny (7-7, 5.22), who is 0-3 with a 7.54 ERA over his last four starts. He didn't face the Yankees earlier this month but threw six shutout innings against them June 11th when he didn't get the decision in Boston's 4-3 win. The right-hander is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA in two career starts against the Yankees.This is a huge prdie game for both teams and the starting pitchers will be at the top of the game as both pitchers have had success against their opponents. Tonight's game will be played like a playoff game.
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TAKE UNDER 10 1/2
MATT FARGO
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Washington Redskins
Pick: Washington Redskins -3
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Washington was embarrassed in its preseason opener at Baltimore as it was shutout while tallying just 196 total yards of offense. Facing Pittsburgh may not seem like the way to bounce back but playing their first home game with some extra motivation is a big benefit. Washington head coach Jim Zorn’s noted that a lot of the Redskins played “soft” and you know that the effort will be better this week. The intensity level was noticeably higher at the first two practices after that game and carrying that over into Saturday is the goal. The Ravens didn’t allow Washington inside the 30-yard line and they stopped the Redskins on 10 of 11 third down attempts. However, Washington players admitted it wasn’t the Ravens who held the Redskins scoreless as much as it was the Redskins committing too many mistakes. The big concern heading into the preseason was the offensive line as that was considered the main cause for the second-half meltdown last season. Against Baltimore, the coaching staff was pleased about the line’s performance in pass protection. The first-team unit struggled throughout camp but fared well in its two series against the Ravens. The play of veteran quarterback Todd Collins was especially positive as he completed 8 of 11 passes for 70 yards. He looked very smooth running the offense which was much better than at this point last season when he was frustrated playing behind bad protection and with subpar receivers. The Steelers won their preseason opener against the Cardinals in a Super Bowl rematch but the 20-10 score was a little deceiving. The Cardinals ended up outgaining Pittsburgh, 329-259 and that should be favorable this weekend. Pittsburgh had trouble running the ball, gaining just 90 yards on 32 carries (2.8 ypc) and it allowed Cardinals quarterbacks to complete over 53 percent of their passes. Those are two areas that Washington will work on. We catch a solid number here as well as last week’s results have pushed Pittsburgh into the role of road favorite and at this point of the preseason that should not be the case.
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3* Washington Redskins
Tom Stryker
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MINNESOTA with Blackburn (-117) over Kansas City
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Back in the middle of August, Kansas City took two-out-of-three from the Twins at Minnesota. Rest assured, the Twinkies will be out for a little revenge on Friday night.
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On the bump for Minny will be right hander Nick Blackburn. Since the All-Star break, Blackburn has been serving up meatballs allowing 29 earned runs and 50 hits in 25.2 innings of work. That's bad enough for a ridiculous 10.17 ERA. The Twins are 0-6 in Nick's last six starts. All of that is noted. Still, Blackburn's overall numbers are good. With 149.0 frames in the bank, No. 53 has been tapped for 72 earned runs and 179 hits in 149.0 frames. After the math, that translates into an 8-8 record and a decent 4.35 ERA.
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It isn't like Minnesota will be facing a juggernaut on the mound. Kansas City will start right hander Luke Hochevar. In his last four starts against Detroit, Oakland, Seattle and Baltimore, No. 44 was blasted for 21 earned runs and 37 hits in 22.0 innings. That adds up to a miserable 0-4 record and an elevated 8.59 ERA! At night, Hochevar's numbers are lacking too. With the moon out, the former Tennessee Volunteer has been tagged for 34 earned runs and 57 hits in 51.0 innings. That adds up to a lofty 6.00 ERA!
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On a technical note, the Royals have dropped 39 of their last 57 overall and 35 of their last 51 priced as a home underdog. The Twins are the better teams and they'll find a way to win this game. Take Minnesota with listed pitcher Blackburn.
LARRY NESS
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TAM (-170) vs TEX
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The Rays won 97 games last year and surprised everyone by winning the AL East. Tampa Bay is no longer thinking division title these days at 65-55. With just 42 games left in its season, the team trails the Yanks by 10 1/2 games. However, the Rangers (68-52) and the Red Sox (69-51) are both within striking distance, as the Rays chase both clubs for the AL's lone wild card spot. Tampa gets to host the Rangers this weekend, opening a three-game series at Tropicana Field tonight. Friday's game is the first of nine straight road games for Texas, which plays 15 of its next 19 away from home. The Rangers are 27-28 away from home compared with a 41-24 mark in Arlington. That doesn't bode well vs the Rays, who went a dominating 57-24 (plus-$2,701) at home last year and are again playing well at home, posting a 40-20 mark this year. Dustin Nippert is 4-1 with a 3.52 ERA in 10 appearances (six starts) this year for the Rangers. He's really helped the team since the All Star break, going 4-1 with a 2.61 ERA in eight games (four starts) but will be tested here vs a Tampa Bay team which was 42-14 at home vs right-handers last year and has gone 27-11 in that role this year (including 21-8 in night games). Opposing Nippert will be Scott Kazmir and while his overall record is unimpressive in 2009 (7-7 with a 6.36 ERA in 18 starts / team is 11-7), he's been a different pitcher (for the most part), since returning from the DL on June 27 (especially at home). He's 3-0 in his five home starts since coming off the DL and the rRys have won all five games. He did have one poor outing in that stretch (allowed nine hits and seven ERs over 6.1 innings of a 10-9 win) but in the other four, his ERA is a respectable 3.33. Regulars know I'm a big fan of Kazmir and why not? The team went 19-8 in his regular season starts last year (after a late start) and the pervious three years (2005-07), while the Rays were struggling to a 194-292 (.399) record, Kazmir was proving to be a real "difference-maker." The numbers don't lie. Kazmir was 33-26 (.559) in that three-year span, with the Rays going 46-44 (.511) in all of his starts. Doing the math, the Rays played .559 ball when Kazmir got a decision from 2005-07 but just .377 baseball (161-266) when he didn't. In games Kazmir started, the Rays played .511 baseball and with another starting pitcher, just .374 (148-248). Kazmir hasn't been the "difference-maker" he's been in years past but he's pitching well enough at home lately to back him and the Rays tonight.
Rocketman
NY Yankees @ Boston
Play: Boston
After being smoked in New York in the last series, the Red Sox should be ready for some revenge tonight in Boston. Boston is coming off a 3-0 series sweep of Toronto. Boston is scoring 5.7 runs per game at home this year. Boston also drills left handed starters are they are averaging 5.5 runs per game. Boston bullpen is solid with a 3.44 ERA overall this year and a 3.21 ERA at home this season. Brad Penny is 5-2 at home this year. Boston is 6-0 at home vs NY Yankees this season. Penny is 3-0 with a 2.31 ERA overall vs NY Yankees since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Boston tonight!