Mr. Vegas Wins
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Chiefs at Vikings
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The KC offense looked terrible last week in a home loss to Houston. This is a weak QB rotation with Matt Cassell, Tyler Thigpen, Brodie Croyle, and newcomer Matt Gutierrez, all learning a new playbook. Minnesota will not use Brett Favre much and backup Sage Rosenfels is hurting (ankle), so you will see the most play from young players in Tarvaris Jackson and John David Booty. Minnesota has a great offensiv! e line and will be able to run the ball and grind the clock down, all of which will mean a fast moving game with little scoring.
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Play the Chiefs/Vikings Under the total.
Yankee Capper
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Yankees/Red Sox Over 10.5
Minnesota Twins -110
Seattle Mariners +115
Toronto Blue Jays -125
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Kansas City/Minnesota Over 37
Dave Price
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1 Unit on Chicago Cubs +135
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The Cubs are showing excellent value in this bounce back spot tonight with Wells on the hill when you consider that they are 5-1 in Wells' last 6 starts. The Dodgers are just 2-5 in their last 7 home games and only 5-11 in their last 16 game 2's of a series. On top of that, the Dodgers are 1-4 in their last 5 Friday games, 1-7 in their last 8 games following a win, and 0-6 in their last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Take the Cubs for 1 Unit.
ATS Consultants
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St Louis Rams vs. Atlanta Falcons OVER 37
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Expect a lot of points tonight as these two former NFC West Rivals battle in St Louis. Matt Ryan should get some good playing time tonight and the Rams defense is awful.
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On the Rams side, Mark Bulger is hurt so the starting nod goes to former Ravens QB Kyle Boller. Boller will be loking to impress tonight, so he should put some numbers up while Bulger is out. St Louis was able to put up good numbers last week in New York and shouldn’t have much trouble tonight either.
Boston/New York Yankees OVER 10
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Here we go, the best rivalry in Baseball heats up this weekend as the Yankees head to Fenway Park. Both teams have really heated up offensively of late, and tonight the ball should be flying out of Fenway.
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Brad Penny (7-7, 5.22) has been very up and down this year so far, and that trend has continued in his most recent efforts. He’s 1-3 with a 5.90 ERA in his last 5 starts. He hasn’t shown the ability to pitch past the sixth inning much of the season, so the Sox bullpen better be ready to go early in this one.
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Should be a fun weekend series in Boston, it always is when these two get together.
Mike Rose
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Montreal Alouettes -11
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The Riders blew a huge lead for the second time this season when they squandered a 23-0 lead against the Ti-Cats in a Week 7 CFL betting affair. However, unlike in their loss to Edmonton after leading 22-0, Saskatchewan responded by scoring the final ten points to score a 33-23 victory to get back over .500 on the season. The ten-point margin of victory easily covered the football betting lines. RB Wes Cates had his best game of the 09 season against Hamiltons stout defence, as he ran for 117 yards on 19 carries. Cates led the CFL in rushing last year with 1,229 yards. Though he may have a tough time finding running room against a solid Montreal D this week, the Roughriders will absolutely have to get good production from their running game because of the struggles of QB Darian Durant. Durant has only completed 56% of his passes this season, the second lowest mark amongst quarterbacks in the CFL, and he has thrown nearly as many interceptions (8) as touchdowns (9).
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For the Alouettes, its all about the defence. The unit went a second straight week without giving up a touchdown in the Als 39-12 Canadian Football betting win over the Blue Bombers. The defence only gave up 232 yards to the Bombers. They forced four turnovers. RB Avon Cobourne is second in the league is rushing, but he leads the CFL in rushing TDs with seven. He had a decent game against Winnipeg, carrying the ball 11 times for 49 yards. QB Anthony Calvillo threw four more touchdown passes, but he also threw two interceptions for the first time this season. Since losing to Edmonton three weeks ago, Montreal has outscored its opponents 64-12. The Als are 2-0 against the football wagering odds in their L/2, and have started the season giving their CFL wagering fanatics five winning tickets in the first seven weeks of the season.
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The Alouettes ran roughshod over the Riders five weeks ago when these two teams met in a CFL wagering battle in Regina, and its hard to see anything short of a similar result tonight. Lay the dozen with the hosts and bank on another typical dominant performance from the best team in the league.
King Creole
DAL -3 vs TEN
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The Cowboys will take the field for their first official game at their new $1.15 billion stadium. Owner Jerry Jones put a lot of blood, sweat, tears and plenty of his hard-earned money into the 100,000-plus seat venue. Jones is one of the most hands-on owners in the NFL, and isn't shy about addressing his troops. Bettors can bank on some extra pressure being put on Dallas to open Cowboys Stadium in style. And based on last week's result for each team (2 weeks of results for the Titans), the database says to lay the small number tonight.
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With Tennessee involved in the Hall of Fane game two weeks ago, we actually have a GAME THREE versus GAME TWO situation tonight. 2-8 ATS since 2001: NFL pre-season GAME THREE teams playing off a SUATS win (TItans) vs any team playing GAME TWO (Cowboys). If our Game Two team is off a SU loss (like DALLAS), the results improve to a PERFECT 0-4 ATS for the Game Three team.
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Teams who scored 10 or less points in their FIRST pre-season game (like DALLAS) have been extremely profitable in their next game... under the RIGHT conditions. 26-9 ATS since 2003: All NFL pre-season GAME TWO teams who scored 10 < points in the previous week (COWBOYS). Bring in an opponent off a SU win (like the TITANS), and the numbers improve to an impressive 17-3 ATS.
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Teams who got their asses handed to them in their first game usually rebound with a profitable effort. As the Cowboys lost by a score of 31-10 last week to the lowly Raiders, they ceratinly qualify. 8-1 ATS since 2003L All NFL pre-season GAME TWO teams playing off a SU loss of 14 > points (COWBOYS) vs any opponent off a SU win (Titans).
Michael Cannon
Kansas City +3 at MINNESOTA
Take the points with the Chiefs tonight when they take on the Vikings.
No this pick has nothing to do with Brett Favre. The former Packer and Jet won’t be in the game long enough for his presence to make a difference in the outcome.
This is more about the potential distraction his presence can cause with Sage Rosenfels and Tarvaris Jackson.
Put yourself in their shoes for a minute. Rosenfels was actively pursued by Vikings’ management and just as quickly dismissed because of Favre’s availability. Jackson was promised a chance at the starting job and now may not even make the team because of No. 4.
It’s hard to see either one of those guys approaching this game with any confidence or enthusiasm about their jobs. I know they’re professionals and they’re paid to do a job, but it is what it is and I don’t see much coming from those guys tonight.
The Chiefs are still a ways away from being a good football team, but Matt Cassel has ability and he certainly needs to have a better outing than his first one.
Look for Cassel to have a good outing and for the Chiefs to put on a good display tonight.
Take the points with Kansas City.
2♦ KANSAS CITY
Drew Gordon
Milwaukee at WASHINGTON +110
Now on a 43-33 roll with the plays I'm giving away, including the Astros over the Marlins 4-1 last night! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Milwaukee/Washington match up...
With both teams struggling, this one comes down to the pitching match up, and the edge here lies with the rookie J.D. Martin. Martin has improved from start to start, culminating in allowing just one unearned run at the Reds in his last one. He was also solid in the start prior, allowing 1 run over 5 innings to Arizona in front of the home fans August 9th. True, he got touched up for 5 runs against the Brewers back on July 30th, but that came on the road, and I expect the rook to get it right this time around at home.
Speaking of Milwaukee's offense, the best news for Martin is the suddenly sputtering Brewers attack, averaging just 3.2 runs per game in losing their L4 contests! Granted, the Nationals have never been an offensive juggernaut, but the way Braden Looper has pitched lately, things are looking good for Nats offense in this one.
Herein lies the problem for the visitor, as Braden Looper is 0-1 with a 7.36 ERA over his L2 starts. His inconsistent road play is no secret, getting crushed by the Padres for 6 runs, only to allow just 1 run at the Dodgers in the next road start. Needless to say, his 5.13 ERA on the highway is ugly, and although he's matched up against a rookie, I've seen more consistency from JD Martin than Looper at this point, plain and simple. Washington circles the wagons at home Friday night!
Take Washington behind J.D. Martin over Milwaukee and Looper in this MLB match up.
2♦ WASHINGTON
Dominic Fazzini
N.Y. Yankees -120 at BOSTON
The Rangers rocked MInnesota 11-1 as a run-line play Thursday night, giving me eight wins in my last 12 complimentary selections! Now I'm turning my attention to the big series in Beantown tonight to pick up another victory.
The Yankees have lost seven straight games at Fenway Park, but they had also lost eight straight overall against the Red Sox before sweeping their AL East rivals in four straight games at Yankee Stadium earlier this month.
New York starter Andy Pettitte (9-6, 4.09 ERA) has given up two runs or less in his last four outings. He also has pitched well on the road this year, going 5-2 with a 3.17 ERA in 11 starts away from the Bronx.
The veteran left-hander is 16-9 with a 3.63 ERA in 34 games (32 starts) against the Red Sox, and he threw seven shutout innings against them in a no-decision on Aug. 9.
Boston starter Brad Penny (7-7, 5.22) has not panned out like Sox fans hoped he would this season. The hard-throwing right-hander is 0-3 with a 7.54 ERA over his last four outings, and 5-2 with a 4.70 ERA at Fenway this year.
He has pitched well in two career starts against the Yankees, going 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA. Penny threw six shutout innings against them on June 11, but New York is playing a lot better now.
The Yankees are 25-8 since the All-Star break, 14-3 since Aug. 2 and 5-2 on their current road trip. The Bronx Bombers are obviously no strangers to Fenway, so I don't see them slowing down at all today, especially with Pettitte on the mound. Take the Yankees in this one.
3♦ N.Y. YANKEES
Jeff Benton
How easy was Wednesday’s 5♦ freebie winner on the Cardinals run-line over the Padres? I’m now on a 28-16 roll with my complimentary selections. For Thursday, I’ll go to the NFL and lay the points with the Cowboys, who play their first game in their opulent new stadium against the Titans.
I know this is technically the third preseason game for Tennessee, which played in the Hall of Fame Game, and that the third game is the one that’s most like a regular-season contest. But reports out of Tennessee suggest that coach Jeff Fisher is still treating this as a Week 2 game – his starters likely won’t play beyond the first half, if that – and he’ll use next week as his dress rehearsal.
On the other hand, after getting crushed 31-10 in Oakland last week, I believe the Cowboys are going to be playing to win tonight. No doubt under orders from owner Jerry Jones to put forth a good showing in his new billion-dollar palace tonight, coach Wade Phillies plans to play Tony Romo and the rest of his starters the entire first half and maybe even the first series of the third quarter. And once Romo leaves, the offense will be in the capable hands of veteran QB Jon Kitna for much of the rest of the game.
By comparison, Vince Young once again will see the majority of reps under center for the Titans, and Young has been inconsistent at best throughout training camp and the first two preseason games. Simply put, I don’t trust the guy.
Finally, as I noted last week when I played the Raiders over Dallas, the Cowboys have developed an eye-opening trend since Phillips took over. They’ve now gotten crushed in all five preseason road games under Phillips (including four double-digit defeats), but they’re 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) at home the last two summers. Throw in the fact that the Titans failed to cover in both preseason road games last year, and I’ll lay the requisite field goal with the Dallas.
3♦ DALLAS
Scott Delaney
I’ve got the Rams and Steve Spagnuolo, who is making his home debut with the Rams at the Edward Jones Dome, and I’ve got Falcons coach Mike Smith, who says he will continue to use the preseason games for evaluation of his players. He said Wednesday morning that these games are less about winning and more about seeing what his team is capable of.
So here we go. It would be very easy to take the home underdog, but the fact is, no matter how much time Smith is putting his starters in for, Atlanta’s roster is much more talented than St. Louis’, and it should still win this football game … then again, Ocho Stinko kicked an extra point last night, and the Bengals beat the Patriots.
So, I’m taking the under in this game.
I think Atlanta will be hyped up to play much better defensively after their sloppy second-half showing by the second- and third-teamers in last Saturday night's 27-26 loss to Detroit. Atlanta led at halftime 10-3, before allowing 24 points in the second half, 14 in the fourth quarter.
For St. Louis, it could be a lot of ground game with Marc Bulger sidelined for perhaps the rest of the preseason thanks to a busted finger. Plus, with injuries to Donnie Avery, Tim Carter and Brooks Foster leave the Rams with only seven healthy wide receivers. And, since Samkon Gado and Antonio Pittman were the clear winners last week in the battle to back up Steven Jackson, I expect the pecking order to change tonight with a strong showing by Kenneth Darby or rookie Chris Ogbonnaya. And let’s not forget Ahman Green stopped by for a free-agent visit Wednesday, something that had to of raised everyone’s eyebrows.
The under has been the play in St. Louis’ last three home preseason contests, while the low for Atlanta was on a 3-0 streak and a 5-2 overall run before last week’s game at Detroit soared. I like my chances with the low number.
1♦ Falcons/Rams Under
Jake Timlin
Take the Cardinals minus the cheap road number tonight.
Despite the ugly pitching matchup tonight San Diego, I still the like the Cardinals minus the lower than expect price tag tonight. Going for the Cardinals is that they have won 7 of their last 8 games and 11 of their last 13, including a 5-1 over the Padres last night. With last night’s win St. Louis improved to 4-0 this season against San Diego and 58-20 over the last 77 meetings.
Well given that San Diego is one of the worst teams in the league and who have lost 6 of their last 8 games don’t expect for the Padres to snap their 9 game series losing streak to St. Louis tonight.
2♦ St. Louis Cardinals
Tony Weston
Bad call with the Eagles last night as they barely put up a fight in their loss to the Colts.
I’m getting back on the winning track tonight as I’m taking the Titans on the road at the Dallas Cowboys in the unveiling of the billion-dollar Cowboys Stadium.
So far in two preseason games the Titans have looked solid, going 2-0 SU and 1-0-1 ATS. After playing to a push in their preseason opener against the Bills, the Titans covered as a 4 1/2 point favorite at home against the visiting Buccaneers, winning 27-20. Including those two wins, the Titans are 8-2 SU in the preseason since 2007.
Now Tennessee battles a Cowboys team that got destroyed 31-10 last week at the Raiders and is just 3-6 ATS in the preseason under head coach Wade Phillips.
The Titans will flirt with the outright win and will cover in Big D tonight.
3♦ TITANS