Karl Garrett
Colorado at SAN FRANCISCO -135
G-Man on a 27-21 comp play run the last 48 days.
For Friday night I look for the Giants to gain a little payback against a Colorado team that just took 3 of 4 off of them at Coors Field last weekend.
The Rockies are off back-to-back losses against West front-runner LA, and now must play by the bay where San Francisco is a solid 41-20 this year, including taking 2 of 3 from the Rocks earlier this season.
Ubaldo Jimenez just matched pitches - and won - against Tim Lincecum on the 23rd of this month, as Jimenez has now won 5 straight starts without allowing more than 2 runs to score in any of those wins. In fact, Jimenez is on a 6-0 roll his last 8 starts.
Still, the G-Man believes that the Giants will get to Ubaldo in this one, and back Linceum's cause.
Lincecum has done his best work this season at home, sporting a 7-1 mark with an ERA of just 1.98 along the way.
Make that 8-1 after the redemption win over the Rockies this Friday night.
3♦ SAN FRANCISCO
Dominic Fazzini
Cleveland -115 at BALTIMORE
Fausto Carmona (3-8, 5.92 ERA) has pitched well since being recalled from the minors by the Indians on July 31, but hasn't had much to show for it.
A 19-game winner in 2007, Carmona is just 1-2 despite a 2.79 ERA in five starts since his return to Cleveland's rotation. The right-hander did win his last outing, however, allowing one run and five hits with eight strikeouts in seven innings Sunday against Seattle.
Carmona went 2-0 with a 0.59 ERA against Baltimore in 2007, but was 0-1 with a 10.80 ERA in two games vs. the Orioles last year.
Baltimore starter Jason Berken (3-11, 6.49) won his last start, allowing two runs and five hits in 5 2/3 innings Sunday at Chicago, but he has been getting shelled on a regular basis.
The rookie right-hander won at home in his major league debut on May 26, but he is 0-6 at Camden Yards in eight starts since then. Overall at home, he is 1-6 with a 5.48 ERA in nine outings.
The Orioles have lost nine of their last 11 home games, and are 12-28 overall since the All-Star break. The Indians, on the other hand, are surging, having won five of their last six to improve to 20-12 since July 23, including a come-from-behind 5-4 victory over the Orioles on Thursday, when Andy Marte hit a two-run homer with two outs in the ninth.
Cleveland is 4-1 in Carmona's last five road starts, while Baltimore is 0-5 in Berken's last five home starts. These are two teams and two pitchers going in opposite directions. Take the Indians in this one.
3♦ CLEVELAND
Sports Gambling Hotline
Cleveland -115 at BALTIMORE
Comp play winner on the Rams plus the points last night in the NFL to make it 26-10-1 our last 37 comp play selections.
For Friday night, we will back Cleveland to come through again at Baltimore.
The O's blew a sure win last night, as they are just 11-26 overall their last 37 games, and only 2-9 their last 11 games played at Camden Yards.
Cleveland has been some competitive ball down the stretch, and have now won 6 of their last 8 games overall.
Fausto Carmona hasn't done much this season, but his last start was brilliant, as the righty worked 7 full frames, while fanning 8, and surrendering just 1 run in a win over Seattle.
Let's look for him to build on that start with another quality effort on Friday.
His counterpart Jason Berken is just 3-11 with an ERA of 5.92 for the season, and probably should still be working on the minor league level to gain a little more confidence at this level.
Play on Cleveland.
2♦ CLEVELAND
BIG AL
Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins
The pitching staff in Texas is putting on a show this season, and that gives the Rangers the edge on Friday night when they open their three-game series in Minnesota.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Our Friday night MLB selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Minnesota Twins at the Metrodome in Minneapolis.
Add Tommy Hunter's name to the list that includes Scott Feldman, Derek Holland, and Dustin Nippert as the most unlikely of successful pitching staffs in recent memory. This group, along with perhaps the only name that was known by most baseball fans before the start of the season, veteran Kevin Millwood, has put together the fifth-best starting pitching ERA in the American League so far this season.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The rotation also is No. 1 in wins for the season with 54, besting all other AL starting staffs, and this despite the fact that the Rangers play half their teams in hitter-friendly Arlington. Hunter is a 23-year old righthander who has come from virtually nowhere to put up incredible numbers – 6-2 with a 2.85 ERA – and he has won five of his last seven starts.
As unknown as Hunter at the start of the season was, Minnesota rookie starter Brian Duensing gets the start for the Twins. The southpaw from Kansas just won his first major league game in his last appearance, which was only his second start, as Duensing has been primarily a reliever in his short career. It took a start against the worst team in the AL (Kansas City) to earn Duensing that milestone.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Texas just took two of three from the Yankees in New York so they should be able to handle Minnesota. Take the Rangers.
Pick: Rangers -117
Jimmy the Moose
Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
With super freshman Tommy Hunter taking to the mound in Minnesota tonight, the Texas Rangers are an easy pick as small chalk against the Twins.
Neither the Texas Rangers nor the Minnesota Twins are currently in a playoff spot, but both of them are in striking distance.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Texas currently sits 4.5 games behind the Angels in the AL West and are only 1.5 games behind the Red Sox in the AL Wild Card race. The Twins are 10.5 games back in the Wild Card race but only 4.5 games behind the Tigers in the AL Central. With both teams sights set on the playoffs this is a must win game for both.
The Rangers are 71-55 on the year, a very good record but they have been great at home and so-so on the road. Texas has a 30-31 road record and if you want to be considered a legitimate playoff contender you have to be a lot better on the road. In their last 9 games as a favorite the Rangers are 7-2. Texas is 23-7 in their last 30 games vs. a starting pitcher with a WHIP better than 1.30.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Tonight they send Tommy Hunter, 6-2 with an ERA of 2.85, to the mound. The Rangers are 4-1 in his last five starts vs. a team with a losing record.
The Minnesota Twins have a 63-64 record on the year, a disappointing season so far. At home the Twins are 35-28, pretty good but not good enough. The Twins have won seven of their last 10 games and that's helped them close the gap in their division to 4.5 games. Minnesota's offense has been very good this year but their pitching has been their downfall. The Twins are 3-7 in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Rangers have struggled in their recent trips to Minnesota. They are 3-8 in their last 11 games played in Minnesota. Tonight the Twins send Brian Duensing to the mound and he battles a pleasant surprise in Tommy Hunter. The edge on the mound goes to the Rangers and that will be the difference tonight. Play on Texas.
Pick: Rangers -115
Ron Raymond
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
San Diego / Florida: OVER 9
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Keys to selection: When FLORIDA Played as home team as a Favorite - During Last 5 Years - Lost Last Game by 7 Runs or More; The OVER is 15-6-2 for the Marlins in this role the L5Y.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Colorado / San Francisco: UNDER 6.5
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Keys to selection: When ANY MLB Team played as a Road team - Total is between 6.5 to 7.0 - During the month of August - Coming off a series loss - Coming off a lost in game 3 of a series; The UNDER is 12-5-3 for the Road Team (Col) in this spot since 1997.
The Spread
Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins
Texas is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas's last 7 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Minnesota is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games at home
Pick: Minnesota
Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
Pittsburgh is 5-18 SU in its last 23 games when playing Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Milwaukee is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
Pick: Milwaukee
Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Atlanta's last 9 games on the road
Philadelphia is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Pick: Philadelphia
Tom Stryker
Cleveland at Baltimore
Play: Cleveland
Counting last night’s 5-4 victory at Baltimore, Cleveland has quietly won five of its last six. Don’t be surprised when the Indians keep their good fortunes coming with another win tonight. On the bump for the Tribe will be right hander Fausto Carmona. Since being called back up from the minors on July 31st, Carmona has pitched extremely well in five starts allowing nine earned runs and 30 hits in 29.0 innings of work. That breaks down to a respectable 2.79 ERA! It should be noted that those five performances came against some pretty good hitting teams in the Mariners, Angels, Rangers, Twins and Tigers. Baltimore will counter with former Clemson Tiger Jason Berken. There’s not much to like about this Green Bay product. At home this season, Berken has been slammed for 28 earned runs and 60 hits in 40.0 frames. That’s bad enough for a dismal 1-6 overall record and a lofty 5.48 ERA. Even worse, with the moon shining, Jason has been off target surrendering 45 earned runs and 82 hits in 61.0 frames. That adds up to a woeful 2-7 mark and an elevated 6.64 ERA! With Carmona on the mound, the Indians have dominated sub .500 opponents cashing 20 of their last 28 battles. Meanwhile, the O’s have dropped 13 of their last 16 with Berken on the bump and 39 of their last 57 priced as an underdog. The Tribe is heating up while the Orioles are cooling off. Take Cleveland!
Bob Donahue
White Sox at Red Sox
Nailed the White Sox with the free picks last night. I will come back with another team fighting to stay in the playoff hunt, the Texas Rangers. Texas is in Minnesota and has a very strong starter in Tommy Hunter (6-2, 2.85 ERA). Minnesota goes ! with young Brian Duensing, who has struggled with an ERA close to 5. Texas has had a great week, winning 3 of 4, including taking 2 of 3 at NY.
Play the Rangers.
Craig Trapp
New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Chicago Cubs -1.5
CHC -1.5 (-113): love the value on the R/L here for the Cubs. I know the Cubs have not been playing overly great but they have won at home for Lilly in almost every outing this year. He is 6-1 with a 1.86 ERA at home. The CUBS are in a must win every game from here on in if they want any chance of winning the wildcard of division. The Cubs bats have been silent in the recent months but today they will break out finally. They face left-hander Pat Misch who will make his first start of the season Friday. The suburban Chicago native is 0-8 in 53 career appearances, and 0-5 with a 6.95 ERA in 11 starts. Misch has a 7.36 ERA in three career relief appearances against Chicago. Not good news for the NYM as they will get pounded as they have recently. LOVE THE R/L VALUE.. SCORE CHC 7 - NYM 2
BEN BURNS
San Diego Padres @ Florida Marlins
PICK: Florida Marlins
Both these teams got roughed up yesterday. I feel that Florida has a much better shot at bouncing back with a victory this evening.
For starters, the Marlins are a respectable 36-29 at home. The Padres, on the other hand, are a money-burning 21-41 (-11.6) away from Petco Park. Looking back further and we find them at an awful 91-134 (-34.8) on the road the past few seasons.
Looking at the history between these teams and we find that the Marlins have won eight of the last 10 meetings, including four straight. That includes a 3-2 victory in which Volstad pitched last month. That was Volstad's only career start vs. the Padres and he was sharp, allowing just four hits and one run (1.29 ERA) through seven complete innings. Conversely, Kevin Correia is 0-2 with an ugly 10.38 ERA and 2.0 WHIP in three career starts vs. the Marlins. All things considered, the current price seems reasonable. Consider Florida
DAVE MALINSKY
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays
Has anyone watched Scott Richmond or Josh Beckett lately? That seemingly has not been the case in the pricing of this game, and that means a chance for a nice payday at the generous return that is being offered.
Richmond is a late-bloomer, with his 30th birthday coming up on Sunday, but his stuff has been solid, with a 1.29 WHIP better than the 4.09 ERA shows, and for our purposes his two August starts since getting back into the rotation could not have been better – an 0-1/4.85 elicits nothing but yawns from the marketplace, but despite taking on tough lineups in the Angels and Yankees (the latter in the Bronx), he struck out 18 batters in 13 innings, while only allowing 14 hits. His abilities, along with a fresh bullpen and a lineup that will relish the chance to play spoiler against a hated rival, bring much more to the table than we usually find for an underdog in this range.
The Red Sox, meanwhile, bring much less than what is being called for. They are just 19-20 since the All Star break, and Beckett is in one of the worst cycles of his career, allowing an astonishing count of 10 home runs in his last three starts. Included in that run was an ugly outing at the Rogers Centre two starts back, when he was tagged for seven runs on nine hits, including three homers, in 5.1 frames, and note that it was not all that new – the Blue Jays bring a lot of hitters that actually enjoy seeing his stuff, with Vernon Wells at 10-31 lifetime with five home runs, Lyle Overbay 9-30 with a pair of doubles, Aaron Hill 10-27 with six doubles, Rod Barajas 5-13 with two doubles and two home runs, and Adam Lind 5-8 with a double and a homer.
This is not the setting for a blowout – this situation is ripe for a loose underdog to get the measure of a team that is fighting for their playoff lives, and not stepping up all that well under the pressure so far.
Tom Freese
Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers
Prediction: Detroit Tigers
Detroit is 23-9 their last 32 home games vs. a team with a winning record and they are 19-7 their last 26 games vs. righty starters. The Tigers are 5-1 in the last 6 home starts made by Rick Porcello and they are 8-1 after scoring 2 runs or less in their last game. Tampa Bay is 56-148 their last 204 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of over 60%. The Rays are 5-12 in the last 17 road starts made by Matt Garza and they are 1-7 their last their last 8 games as favorites of -110 to -150. PLAY ON DETROIT +
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Detroit Tigers +117
Bottom Line: The Tigers are a 40-20 home club while the Rays are a 27-36 road club. Garza is 0-3 lifetime against the Tigers with a 4.94 ERA and has been fool's gold as a road fave - the Rays are 2-9 in his last 11 starts as a road favorite. The rook, Porcello, has had some ups and downs, but mostly ups at home as the Tigers are 5-1 in his last 6 home starts. Tigers, 1 Unit, good value.
Freddy Wills
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Atlanta Braves
Oddsline Error Play here with the Braves tonight when they throw Tommy Hanson up against Pedro Martinez. In my opinion the wrong team is favored here when you consider that Hanson's worst starts were 6 and 5 IP allowing 4 ER and that was vs. the Dodgers and at the Rockies. Those are quality starts for Pedro Martinez at this point in his career. So to see the Braves lose here we would have to have two things happen and I don't think they will considering that the Braves have a good history vs. Pedro.
In 2 starts vs. the Braves last year Pedro went 13IP gave up 16H and 8ER 13K's with 4 BB. Atlanta is hitting RHP pretty well right now and they are 5-0 in their last 5 games with Hanson on the hill as a favorite -110 to -150. The Phillies are hitting just .222 in their last 5 vs. RHP and they have not been that great at home this year so I'm confident with Hanson on the mound facing the Phillies who will take at least one trip through to get a hang of Hanson and by then Pedro might be in trouble.