Doc’s Sports
Take Florida Marlins (-1.5 RL +135) over San Diego Padres
Facing the last place Padres gives the Marlins a chance to build some momentum. Florida has won 8 of the last 10 against San Diego. The wild card push begins here.
Vegas Sports Informer
Take LA Angels -145 over Oakland.
Oakland is 9-21 following a SU win. The LA Angels are 24-9 when playing a team with a losing record. The Angels are 5-2 in their last 7 meetings against the Oakland A's.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Cleveland Indians at Baltimore Orioles
The Baltimore Orioles are just 9-29 at home in the month of August over the past three seasons after blowing a save opportunity last night. Baltimore seems to fall apart in the second half of seasons and they face a Cleveland team that has nothing to lose and can play loose. Indians’ starter Fausto Carmona is coming off his best start of the year and has a 16-4 TSR when Cleveland has won two or more straight games. Go with Cleveland here.
Play on: Cleveland
Wunderdog
Oakland Athletics vs. LAA Angels
Play: LAA Angels -147
The Oakland A's have not done much on the road all season, and right now a bad offense is struggling as much as they have all season. The A's have scored three runs or less in 11 of their last 12 games. They are facing a team that is averaging close to six runs a game on the season that is not going to be an easy task, especially for a team that is just 16-43 in their last 59 on the road against a team with a winning record on the season. The A's inconsistency has also shown them to be in a difficult position after a win, where they are just 9-21 in their last 30 off a win. The Angels are 46-22 in their last 68, and 24-9 against a team with a losing record. Those are some tough numbers, so I'm going with the Angels in this one.
Teddy Covers
New England Patriots vs. Washington Redskins
Pick: New England (1st Half)
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The Redskins have been outscored 116-6 in the regular season walkthrough (Week 3 of the preseason) over the last three years. Judging from the performance of Jim Zorn’s starters thusfar this preseason, the Skins are likely to have a tough time competing again tonight, particularly in the first half. Washington was a complete no-show Week 1 against the Ravens, shut out 23-0 in a game that they allowed a whopping 500 total yards. Last week, with the starters on the field against the Steelers, QB Jason Campbell completed only one pass and the Redskins managed only a single field goal in the entire first half; trailing 10-3 at the break.
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This is nothing new for Jim Zorn, a coach who clearly doesn’t care about preseason results. The Skins have scored only 53 points in their last six preseason games dating back to last year, and their only pointspread covers during this span have come thanks to second half comebacks. Washington also has several key injuries that reduce the overall effectiveness of their starting lineup, with Carlos Rogers and Rock Cartwright expected to miss while Santana Moss and Albert Haynesworth are both questionable.
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By all accounts, this has been the toughest training camp for the Pats since they started to win Super Bowls. All this tough training didn’t result in an inspired performance last week, as the Pats were held to a pair of field goals in a home loss to the Bengals. Last year, Tom Brady was hurt and didn’t play in the preseason. In the three previous seasons, with Brady behind center for the regular season walk through, the Pats won by a combined score of 92-10. We’ll expect that type of showing with Brady on the field for the first half tonight, cashing our ticket by halftime and avoiding any late game shenanigans. 1st Half: 2* Take New England -3
Mike Rose
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers
Pick: Detroit Tigers +115
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RHP Matt Garza will get the ball from Manager Joe Maddon on Friday night. The ALCS MVP is just 7-8 on the season, but boasts a solid 3.74 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Opposing batters are only hitting .232 against him, which is a career-best figure. Of late, the right-hander has been stellar, allowing three runs or fewer in seven of his L/8 starts. Unfortunately, he is just 1-2 in that stretch. Pitching away from Tropicana Field has been no fun for Garza this season, as he is 3-4 with a 4.43 ERA in 11 starts. He’s also had absolutely no luck against the Tigers in his career, going 0-3 with a 4.94 ERA in five outings.
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Rookie of the Year candidate, RHP Rick Porcello will be Garza’s counterpart on Thursday. Porcello is 10-8 with a 4.39 ERA in his first year in the big leagues. Though his 1.39 WHIP is serviceable, particularly in the American League, the right-hander has a lot of glaring problems in his statistics. His 4.83 K/9 is awfully low for a starting pitcher, and he has allowed a whopping 20 home runs in 23 starts this season. That last stat becomes particularly important against a team that has mashed 164 home runs on the season, the fifth best mark in baseball. Porcello is hoping to rebound from a poor start in Oakland in which he gave up five runs in 5.1 innings pitched. This will be the rookie’s first career look at the defending AL champs.
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Something just doesn’t seem right with this line. The Rays probably do have a better team top to bottom than Detroit does, but there’s no way that they should be favored in any game of this series. The Tigers are playing .667 baseball at Comerica Park this year, and they’ve won 35 of their L/51 at home. Anything less than a split at home would be incredibly shocking. The home team has won six of the L/7 meetings between these squads. All signs point to some incredible value with the hosts, and that’s the side we’ll be backing tonight.
ATS Consultants
Tampa Bay Rays/Detroit Tigers UNDER 9
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Excellent pitching matchup tonight at Comerica Park between two teams fighting for the postseason. Tampa Bay will send righty Matt Garza to the mound while the Tigers will counter with Rookie sensation Rick Porcello.
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Garza (7-8, 3.44) doesn’t have the win totals he expected coming into the season, but his ERA and strikeouts are still among the best in the league. For whatever reason, he has not received the run support he got last year, especially in the playoffs. He is 0-1 with a 3.99 ERA in his last 5 outings, frustrated by his teams inablity to put up runs.
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Porcello (10-8, 4.39) is the favorite to win the American League Rookie of the Year award. He’s been terrific all season and is a big reason the Tigers find themselves 4 games up in the AL Central as we near September. Jim Leyland has already said he’d be careful with the young righty so he has something left for the post season. Porcello is 1-1 with a 3.51 ERA in his last 5 starts.
John Ryan
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Dodgers as they face the Reds set to start at 7:10 EST. Of note: Weather conditions on the East Coast will affect many of those games scheduled to take place in NY, Boston, and Philadelphia among others. There is even a 30% chance of thunderstorm in the Cincinnati area, but based on my research I do not see a rain delay effecting the outcome of this game and the AiS grading remains 3* units. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 74-25 making 39.7 units since 1997. Play on road favorites with a money line of -125 or more and is a poor power team averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game on the season, after a one run win. LAD are a solid 16-5 (+10.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a bad team sporting a win percentage of 38% to 46% this season. Take the Dodgers.
Rocketman
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Texas Rangers vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Texas Rangers
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Texas is 71-55 overall this year while Minnesota comes in with a 63-64 overall record on the season. Tommy Hunter is 6-2 with a 2.85 ERA overall this year, 2-0 with a 1.75 ERA on the road and 2-0 with a 3.44 ERA his last 3 starts. Rangers are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Rangers are 7-2 in their last 9 games as a favorite. Rangers are 48-19 in their last 67 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Twins are 3-7 in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record. Twins are 3-9 in their last 12 vs. American League West. Twins are 0-4 in their last 4 games as a home underdog. We'll recommend a small play on Texas tonight!
Larry Ness
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Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies
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The Braves swept the Phillies in a three-game series at Atlanta (June 30-July 2), which left the defending champs, 39-37. However, the Phillies have responded by going 34-15 (.694) since that time, including 19-7 (.731) at home, after opening the 2009 season with a 13-22 home mark. The Braves have tried to keep pace with the Phillies but despite a 33-20 (.623) mark since being a season-worst six games under .500 (34-40) on June 27, the Braves open this four-game series seven games back in the NL East. Atlanta will give the ball to rookie phenom Tommy Hanson, who allowed six ERs in his MLB debut back on . However, he's allowed three ERs or less in 11 of his last 13 outings. He's 9-2 with a 3.12 ERA on the season (team is 10-4 in his starts) and will take a four-game winning streak (2.81 ERA with 28 strikeouts over 25.2 innings) into tonight's contest. I read where it's his 23rd birthday but don't expect the Phillies, or the 37-year-old Pedro Martinez, to help him celebrate. Martinez signed a one-year, $2 million contract with the Phillies back on July 15, the best (only?) offer he received from any club following four seasons with the New York Mets. The aging three-time Cy Young Award winner has allowed 16 hits and eight ERs in 14 innings of work over three starts (5.14 ERA) but he's gotten 23 runs of support, which explains his 2-0 record (Philies are 3-0). However, let me note that he does have 13 Ks and just two walks in those 14 innings (his ball still moves and he isn't wild!). Hanson is a tough young pitcher but should he favored at Philly against a future Hall-of-Famer, albeit one no longer in his prime, backed by the defending World Series champs?. Still, I'll take those odds. Go with the Phils.
Stephen Nover
Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals
PICK: Over 9
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Nationals starter John Lannan may have hit the wall because he's been terrible this month. The southpaw has a 12.00 ERA in his last three starts. He's given up nine walks in his last three starts with just three strikeouts.
Lannan is 3-8 on the road with a 5.96 ERA compared to 5-1 at home with a 2.62 ERA.
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The Cardinals have the right-handed bats to take full advantage with Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Ryan Ludwick and Mark DeRosa.
The Nationals could be without their one dependable relief pitcher, closer Mike MacDougal. He threw 27 pitches last night in going 1 2/3 innings to pick up a save. Washington always is vulnerable to blowout losses because of its terrible defense and horrendous middle relief.
But the Nationals should be able to score their share of runs on John Smoltz. He'll be making his second start in a Cardinals uniform. Smoltz was most impressive in his Cardinals debut on Sunday throwing a three-hitter with nine strikeouts in five innings against the Padres.
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Two things to keep in mind, though, about Smoltz. His gem came against the Padres, the weakest-hitting club in the National League.
Smoltz was 2-5 with an 8.33 ERA in eight starts for the Red Sox. The 42-year-old allowed 62 hits in 45 innings with the Red Sox. Opponents batted .326 against him.
Lenny Del Genio
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Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants
Prediction: San Francisco Giants
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Looks like the oddsmakers are begging you to take Lincecum tonight and we?ll bite. Taking the reigning Cy Young Award Winner, at home, at this price is a bargain no matter what way you slice it. Not only does Lincecum boast a 1.98 ERA in 13 starts at AT&T Park, but his team comes off a humiliating 11-0 loss last night to Arizona. Colorado counterpart Ubaldo Jiminez is in fine form (3-0, 1.50 ERA L3 starts), but hes on the road now where hes just 5-5 this season. The Rockies are just 10-21 when Jiminez starts away from Coors Field since the start of last season. The team is also 6-23 since 1997 on the road off a division loss as a favorite. Take San Francisco.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Florida Marlins -141
The Padres are just 21-41 on the road this season and were swept by the Marlins in San Diego just over a month ago. I expect San Diego's road struggles to continue tonight and for the Marlins to improve to 4-0 against the Pads this season as the Fish have a big edge at the plate. The Padres send Correia to the hill and he is 0-2 when starting against Florida with an ERA of 10.38 and a WHIP of 2.000 in his career. I expect the Fish to get to him rather early and then they can feast on a bullpen with a 5.26 road ERA. The Marlins have won 6 straight Friday games and 11 of their last 12 game 1's of a series. They are 10-1 in their last 11 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 4-0 in Volstad's last 4 starts vs. the National League West. When he faced the Padres in late July, he allowed only 1 run on 4 hits in 7 innings. I'll back Florida at home.
Spartan
Rangers at Twins
With the Angels tripping up some this week the Rangers are smelling blood in the water as they are only 4 games back. Frankly I did not suspect the Rangers to be in this position late in august but here they are. Tonights starter Tommy Hunter has been a great shot in the arm for the Rangers staff going 6-2, 2.85. Making is 12th start Hunter is becoming an anchor on that staff. Twins counter with young Brian Duensing who collected his first win saturday but I'm not that impressed yet, it was against the Royals who occasionally show fight but not often. I'll take the Rangers and the reasonable price tag with Hunter in my view.
BONUS Selection, NFL X Arizona -3
Michael Cannon
Green Bay +3' at ARIZONA
The Dolphins win outright and we take home the free winner last night!
Take the Packers tonight plus the points when they travel to take on the Cardinals.
Green Bay has been playing great this preseason and I expect that to continue tonight. Aaron Rodgers and the rest of the Packers’ starters are scheduled to play the entire first half and that’s a great thing for Green Bay. Rodgers has been dead on accurate in his two preseason games thus far and I expect him to pick the Arizona secondary apart.
On the other side, the Cardinals have struggled this preseason and they don’t have the depth necessary to pull it out late should they fall behind. Arizona has lost all five preseason home games since Ken Whisenhunt took over as head coach.
The Packers have cashed in four straight August games, going 3-1 SU.
Take the points with the Packers as they get it done in the desert.
2♦ GREEN BAY