Drew Gordon
Atlanta -120 at PHILADELPHIA
Now on a 48-35 roll with the plays I'm giving away, including the White Sox over the Red Sox 9-5 Thursday (that's 4 straight Freebie winners)! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Atlanta/Philadelphia match up...
Are you really that convinced by Pedro Martinez? Obviously, oddsmakers are NOT, based on the line on this contest. The Phillies as home dogs may seem tempting, but the right play here is on the visitor, starting a far superior pitcher in this match up.
No question, in his prime, Martinez was a stud. However, the 3-time Cy Young Award winner is now WELL past his prime, and although the Phillies are 3-0 when takes the mound, that's more a result of strong run support than anything Pedro did. I do not expect the usual slew of runs to come in versus the Braves Tommy Hanson tonight, exposing what most sharp bettors already know about the 37-year old righty... He's now just an average pitcher with a below average arm.
On the other hand, Tommy Hanson has been everything he's been expected to be and more, going 9-2 with a solid 3.12 ERA in his first Major League season. He's also been razor sharp of late, going 4-0 with a 2.81 ERA over his last 4 starts! Not to mention, pitching in hostile territory has hardly fazed the 23-year old, going 3-1 with a 2.70 ERA away! Critics question whether he can step up in what is a KEY game for the Braves (more on that later), but if he can lock down the Yankees and Red Sox in back-to-back starts, then he can get it done tonight.
Finally, I mentioned earlier how key this game (and series) is for the Braves, and that's no exaggeration. They're sitting 4.5 games back from the wildcard leading Rockies and 7 games back from the top of the NL East. Needless to say, they can make up a lot of ground this weekend, and it all starts with this contest. In the end, Martinez gets exposed by the best offense he's seen since his return (Atlanta averages 4.8 runs per game against righties away), while Hanson takes care of business in a critical spot for his club.
Take the Braves behind Hanson over the Phillies and Martinez in this MLB match up.
3♦ ATLANTA
Chris Jordan
Atlanta at PHILADELPHIA +100
Take the Phillies tonight, as I'm going to bank on Pedro Martinez to have another stellar outing for the defedning World champs.
This has the makings of a trap, and I’ll go ahead and fall for it tonight.
Martinez has looked rock solid in winning his two decisions in his first three starts for the Phils – all games in which the defending champs won. And while I know he has a rough ERA right now, the Phils have found ways to win in those games. Thus, it can only get better, right?
Both of Martinez’s wins have come on the road, so I’m thinking he’s going to be on the hunt for a home win in front of a raucous Friday night crowd. After all, this is turning into the City of Reclamation Projects. Last night the town welcomed Michael Vick, tonight Martinez will delight the home crowd with a solid showing.
The Braves, who are mired in a 2-8 slide in series openers, lost two home games to the Padres and that leaves me skeptical of this line. I know rookie Tommy Hanson has been impressive, but I don’t think he gets the run support he’ll need.
Philly is still one of the hotter teams in baseball, having won 12 of 16, five of six against winning teams and 19 of 26 inside of Citizens Bank Park.
Big line mistake here … give me Philly.
1♦ PHILLIES