Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday August, 3

Marc Lawrence

Diamondbacks at Phillies
Prediction: Under

The Diamondbacks and Phillies open a three-game series in the city of Brotherly Love Friday evening where Ian Kennedy opposes Joe Blanton in a matchup of hurlers that are both in outstanding KW form. Kennedy toes the slab with 73 strikeouts and 8 walks in his last 10 starts, while Blanton owns 67 strikeouts and 8 walks over the same span. With Kennedy sporting a neat 2.25 career ERA in this park, look for a low-scoring affair at Citizens Bank Park here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on the UNDER in the Arizona/Philadelphia game.

Scott Spreitzer

Pirates at Reds
Play: Under

Wandy Rodriguez makes his second start as a Pittsburgh Pirate and he has pitched well in his career at Great American in 11 lifetime starts at the venue. He's faced the Reds three times this season as a member of the Houston Astros, including a decent start in Cinci in April. The Reds are averaging just 3.9 rpg in home night games against lefties and I expect them to struggle to plate runs in this one. The Reds will send Mat Latos to the hill tonight. The righthander can be spotty at times, but he has lowered his season ERA from 5.20 to 4.17 in his last seven starts. Under players are on a 9-1-2 run in Cincinnati's last 12 against teams with a winning record, while the Pirates are 12-5 to the Under in their last 17 games, overall. I'm playing the Under between the Pirates & Reds on Friday.

Hollywood Sports

England at Canada
Prediction: Over

Great Britain (3-0) is the surprise out of Group E after their perfect 3-0 mark was cemented with their upset 1-0 win versus Brazil. England is ranked #9 by FIFA -- and with this core roster bolstered by two Scottish players eligible to play for Great Britain in these Olympic Games, this team should not be underestimated. Their three goals against Cameroon proves that the host team has offensive playmakers. Furthermore, having the advantage of the home crowd should give their strikers extra energy down the stretch in aggressively attacking the net. However, this Canada team should not taken lightly. Ranked #9th in the world by FIFA, the Canadians have much to prove after their disappointing last place finish in the Women's World Cup last summer. Canada was game in their 2-1 loss to the defending World Cup champions in Japan in their opening match in Group F play before netting three goals in their 3-0 win versus South Africa. But what was impressive was the firepower they showed to rally from from a 2-0 goal deficit to earn a draw with Sweden in their final game in group play. Canada is averaging two goals per game in these Olympics -- and as an underdog in this spot, that bodes very well for at least three goals being scored in regulation time to earn the Over.

Rob Vinciletti

Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees -1.5

New York fits a big blowout system tonight that plays in certain home teams off a home favored win by 2 or more runs on 10+ hits,vs an opponent off a home win and had 5 or more hits. These teams are wining by 3 runs per game. Seattle is 7-33 as a road dog from +200 to +250 since 1997. They have also dropped 7 of 9 with a day off. The Yankees are 15-1 as a home favorite from -200 to -250 and are scoring over 6 runs per game the past week. They also have C.C. Sabathia on the mound and he has allowed just 2 runs in 21 innings vs Seattle and has always been real tough to beat at home. Seattle counters with Millwood and he is 3-8 with an era over 5 vs the Yankees.

Brad Diamond

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Cincinnati Reds

Lefty Wandy Rodriguez has been an effective hurler over the years in Houston. Recently the veteran has suffered some tough outings. In fact, over his last three starts he has allowed 15 earned runs in 22 innings of work. Behind Matt Latos the Reds are 9-2 with 8 no decisions in his last 19 starts. Latos is coming off a super effort against Colorado giving up just 4 hits and 2 earned runs in 8 innings of work with the Reds winning 7-2. Although Pittsburgh is 6-1 last seven games in Cincinnati, they show at 2-5 in game #1 of a series. Cincinnati has been hot of late against port side hurlers generating a super 5-0 mark.

Jim Feist

Pirates vs Reds
Pick: Over

Cincinnati is a good offensive park and the over is 20-8-2 in the Pirates' last 30 road games. They face righty Mat Latos and the over is 17-5-2 in the Pirates last 24 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Pittsburgh goes with Wandy Rodriguez, who is 0-2 with a 6.19 ERA his last three starts walking 10 in 16 innings. The over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these squads, including 3-0-1 over the total in the last 4 meetings in Cincinnati. Play the Pirates/Reds over the total.

CFL Predictions

Winnipeg Blue Bombers +2

Does Montreal have any business being road favorites against anyone right now? I’d argue NO! The Alouettes are 0-2 on the road this season–getting blown out both times in losses to Calgary and Hamilton. They have had trouble getting stops on the defensive side of the football and their offense has been plagued by inconsistency and a declining OL that has struggled to protect their aging QB Anthony Calvillo all season. Winnipeg has a win and some confidence under their belt after winning their home opener against Edmonton last week. The betting markets expect a strong, bounce back effort from Montreal in this game which is a big reason why the Als are favored here. I agree that Montreal will probably be ready to play a strong game coming off B2B losses but I don’t expect a “fat and happy” mentality out of this Blue Bombers squad after their first win last week. This is just as big of a game for them as last week because a win here would move them into a tie with Montreal at 2-4 for that all important 3rd place position in the CFL’s East Division.

Winnipeg has had another lengthy period of time to get ready for this game. They had 8 days off prior to playing Edmonton last week and it served them well en route to getting their first win of the season. This week, the Blue Bombers once again will have 8 days off, without travel, before hosting the slumping Alouettes and that should leave them fresh and primed for another strong effort on their home turf at CanadInns Stadium–a place where the Blue Bombers have turned in an impressive 8-2 ATS record dating back to the start of 2011. Winnipeg’s offense is legitimately taking steps forward.

QB Alex Brink was forced into action a few weeks ago following another crippling injury to Buck Pierce. After struggling in his first start against Toronto, Brink put 8 full days of practice prior to last week’s home opener against Edmonton to good use. The extra reps served him well as he ended up throwing for 294 yards and a touchdown, while also running for 57 yards on 6 carries in the win last week. While he did throw a pair of interceptions, both times he was a victim of having his arm hit as he released the football so it’s hard to fault him for either one. Those INT’s came against my #1 ranked defense in the CFL, the Edmonton Eskimos. He’ll be taking a major step down in defensive class here against the reeling Alouettes stop unit. RB Chad Simpson has brought new life to a previously dormant Winnipeg rushing attack and the return of WR Cory Watson paid immediate dividends last week as he gained instant chemistry with Alex Brink. Watson had 7 receptions for 66 yards last week and became one of Brink’s favorite targets in last week’s win. I consider scoring 23 points and throwing for nearly 300 yards against a stellar Edmonton defense a fine performance for Brink and I fully expect him to build on it with another 7+ days of preparation for this game and playing at home for a second straight week.

Last week was a sign of things to come from Winnipeg’s defense. They’ve always been a group that struggles on the road but performs better at home. Last week was their strongest showing defensively of the season. Sure, it came against a very unimposing Edmonton offense but this has always been a defense that feeds off the home crowd and plays better in Winnipeg then they do on the highway. A major positive from last week’s game for the Blue Bombers is that they got pressure often on Edmonton QB Stephen Jyles. That’s the vital handicap for Montreal and the key to beating them. If the defensive front can get in on QB Anthony Calvillo, the Alouettes offense can be slowed down and if last week’s Winnipeg defensive performance is any indication, the Alouettes OL will need to step their game up a few notches this week.

Montreal is a truly miserable 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games dating back to last year, burning $$ for their backers for an extended period of time. Winnipeg is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games at home and Montreal has repeatedly struggled to win games and cover pointspreads in Winnipeg as the Alouettes head into this game with an 0-4 ATS record in their last 4 games in Winnipeg. I’m not sold on Montreal being the better of these teams right now nor am I sold on them laying points on the road when they are winless on the highway so far this season. It’s worth noting that if you put all those ATS numbers together, you will find that we have a 23-3 ATS angle to back us here with Winnipeg as I will gladly take all the points I can get with the home underdog Blue Bombers as my free play for Week 6 in a game they are very much capable of winning in outright fashion!

Vegas Experts

San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies
Play: San Francisco Giants

Colorado halted a 5-game losing streak last night defeating Cardinals 8-2 marking Rockies second win in ten tries. With slug Jonathan Sanchez scheduled expect Rockies to return to losing ways. Sanchez shelled for 11 runs in two losses since being acquired by Rockies heads to the hill on a 1-12 skid his last twenty-one starts (5-16 TSR). Rockies 6-18 last twenty-four at home, 8-24 last thirty-two as home dogs will be hard pressed against a hungry Giant club trying to hold onto top spot in the West. Keep in mind Giants are on a 6-1 stretch at Coors Field and that Giants have a perfect 5-0 stretch going vs Rockies with Ryan Vogelsong touching toe to rubber.

DAVID BANKS

Indians / Tigers Over 9

The Cleveland Indians (50-54) once led the American League Central this year, but they have fallen on hard times while dropping to four games under .500 and a good showing this weekend vs. the Detroit Tigers (55-50) could be critical to keep their season alive. The Tribe is now in third place and seven games behind the first place White Sox while the Tigers are in second place and just 2 games out. These teams begin a three-game series from Comerica Park in Detroit, MI on Friday night at 7:05 ET in a game carried nationally on MLB Network.

The Indians are on a five-game losing streak entering their series finale vs. the Royals in Kansas City on Thursday, and nothing has gone right for Cleveland during the losing streak as it is batting a pathetic .165 as a team in those five losses while the starting pitchers posted a disgusting 11.84 ERA. The Tribe allowed at least five runs in every game during the streak including allowing double-digits twice. Friday's starter Justin Masterson contributed to the carnage by getting lit up for 10 runs (eight earned) in 5.2 innings by the normally light-hitting Minnesota Twins in his last start on Saturday. Masterson has been "consistently inconsistent" if you will lately, alternating great starts and bad starts over his last eight outings. He allowed one earned run or less in all four of the good starts, which could be considered encouraging since if his alternating pattern continues, he would be in line for a strong outing on Friday. Masterson is just 7-9 with a 4.47 ERA for the season after having a breakthrough season last year when he won a career-high 12 games and posted a nice 3.21 ERA in 33 starts, but he did pitch well in his only start vs. the Tigers this year allowing just one run on five hits in seven innings in a 2-1 win over Justin Verlander on May 24th.

Detroit knew that it needed some pitching help to go along with Verlander, so it went out and acquired Anibal Sanchez from the Miami Marlins right before the trading deadline. However, Sanchez's Tiger debut was hardly a memorable one as he was reached for five earned runs on eight hits plus three walks in just six innings by the Toronto Blue Jays on Saturday. Perhaps Sanchez had a bit of the jitters in his first ever start in the American League, but he should be more relaxed here at home, especially since he already owns a nice start vs. the Indians while with the Marlins during interleague play this year where he allowed two runs in seven innings of a hard luck 2-0 loss at Progressive Field in Cleveland on May 19th. Sanchez figured to get more run support with the Tigers than he did in Miami, as Detroit ranks fifth in the American League with a .266 team batting average, but that was not the case in the 5-1 loss to the Blue Jays. He is certainly facing a weaker offense here however, at least lately.

The Tigers have absolutely dominated the Indians here in Comerica Park in recent years, going a dominating 24-5 in the last 29 head-to-head meetings in Detroit. However, Cleveland did win two of the three games the last time it visited Motown in June.

DAVID BANKS

Indians / Tigers Over 9

The Cleveland Indians (50-54) once led the American League Central this year, but they have fallen on hard times while dropping to four games under .500 and a good showing this weekend vs. the Detroit Tigers (55-50) could be critical to keep their season alive. The Tribe is now in third place and seven games behind the first place White Sox while the Tigers are in second place and just 2 games out. These teams begin a three-game series from Comerica Park in Detroit, MI on Friday night at 7:05 ET in a game carried nationally on MLB Network.

The Indians are on a five-game losing streak entering their series finale vs. the Royals in Kansas City on Thursday, and nothing has gone right for Cleveland during the losing streak as it is batting a pathetic .165 as a team in those five losses while the starting pitchers posted a disgusting 11.84 ERA. The Tribe allowed at least five runs in every game during the streak including allowing double-digits twice. Friday's starter Justin Masterson contributed to the carnage by getting lit up for 10 runs (eight earned) in 5.2 innings by the normally light-hitting Minnesota Twins in his last start on Saturday. Masterson has been "consistently inconsistent" if you will lately, alternating great starts and bad starts over his last eight outings. He allowed one earned run or less in all four of the good starts, which could be considered encouraging since if his alternating pattern continues, he would be in line for a strong outing on Friday. Masterson is just 7-9 with a 4.47 ERA for the season after having a breakthrough season last year when he won a career-high 12 games and posted a nice 3.21 ERA in 33 starts, but he did pitch well in his only start vs. the Tigers this year allowing just one run on five hits in seven innings in a 2-1 win over Justin Verlander on May 24th.

Detroit knew that it needed some pitching help to go along with Verlander, so it went out and acquired Anibal Sanchez from the Miami Marlins right before the trading deadline. However, Sanchez's Tiger debut was hardly a memorable one as he was reached for five earned runs on eight hits plus three walks in just six innings by the Toronto Blue Jays on Saturday. Perhaps Sanchez had a bit of the jitters in his first ever start in the American League, but he should be more relaxed here at home, especially since he already owns a nice start vs. the Indians while with the Marlins during interleague play this year where he allowed two runs in seven innings of a hard luck 2-0 loss at Progressive Field in Cleveland on May 19th. Sanchez figured to get more run support with the Tigers than he did in Miami, as Detroit ranks fifth in the American League with a .266 team batting average, but that was not the case in the 5-1 loss to the Blue Jays. He is certainly facing a weaker offense here however, at least lately.

The Tigers have absolutely dominated the Indians here in Comerica Park in recent years, going a dominating 24-5 in the last 29 head-to-head meetings in Detroit. However, Cleveland did win two of the three games the last time it visited Motown in June.

Ross King

New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres
Play: New York Mets

New York Mets have been awful in the second half of the season but San Diego has been horrid all season long.Do we need a better reason than to back R.A Dickey who is 14-2 with a 2.73 e.ra.Take the Mets and get your weekend started with this freeplay winner.

Rocketman

Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Los Angeles Angels

The LA Angels are 14-4 this year as a road favorite of -125 to -150. The Angels are scoring 5.1 runs per game on the road this year and 6.1 runs per game their past seven games overall. Zack Greinke is 9-4 with a 3.39 ERA overall this year and has a 3.79 ERA his last 3 start. Greinke has 130 strike outs compared to only 29 walks overall this year. Philip Humber is 5-5 with a 5.90 ERA overall this year, 0-3 with a 6.93 ERA at home this season and has a 5.40 ERA his last 3 starts. The Angels are 15-6 last 21 games after a loss. White Sox are 2-5 last 7 games as an underdog. White Sox are 2-12 last 14 games at home when Humber starts. White Sox are 0-7 last 7 home games when Humber starts against a team with a winning record. White Sox are 0-5 last 5 games when Humber starts as a home underdog. Angels have won 7 of the past 10 meetings overall in this series. We'll recommend a small play on the LA Angels tonight!

Lenny Del Genio

Texas vs. Kansas City
Pick: Texas

Despite scoring 36 times in four games with the Angels, the Rangers could only manage a split. However, they should find things much easier tonight in Kansas City where the Royals have been setting fire to their backers bankroll all season. The Royals are just 20-30 at Kauffman Stadium and this pitching matchup does not work in their favor at all for Friday's series opener as they draw lefty Matt Harrison. KC is 12-20 vs. southpaws this season, averaging just 3.6 runs per game, and Harrison has a 3.01 ERA in his 11 road starts w/ the team going 8-3. Meanwhile, the Royals go w/ Jeremy Guthrie, arguably the worst starting pitcher in all of MLB right now w/ a 7.00 ERA for the season. Coming over to the American League from Colorado isn't going to help as he's dropped his first two starts in the Junior Circuit, allowing 11 runs in 10.3 IP. The Rangers are 24-5 this season as a road favorite in the -150 to -175 range. Sometimes its just as simple as taking the much better team.

Matt Fargo

San Francisco vs. Colorado
Pick: San Francisco

The Giants had a terrible ending to their homestand as they went 1-7 in their final eight games but they still possess a half-game lead in the National League West over the Dodgers. The offense scored more than four runs only once and tallied one run or less four times so a trip to Colorado could be just what they need. San Francisco has averaged 7.7 rpg in its last seven games at Coors Field. The Rockies haven't been playing much better as they are 1-5 on their current homestand and going back further they are 7-20 in their last 27 home games. They are also 8-26 in their last 34 games as home underdogs and the chances of Jonathan Sanchez getting them out of that funk is very unlikely. He has made two starts since coming over from Kansas City and it has not been a good transition as he has allowed 11 runs in 8.1 innings and was on the losing end of both games. Sanchez is 2-14 in his last 16 starts as an underdog of +150 or less. San Francisco hopes to get another quality start from Ryan Vogelsong and there is no reason to believe it won't happen. He has tossed 16 straight quality games and he is 18 for 19 in quality outings on the season. Facing the Rockies is no issue as he is 4-0 with a 1.07 ERA in five career starts, all Giants wins.