Larry Ness
Toronto vs. Oakland
Pick: Oakland
The A’s had won 19 of 23 games before losing back-to-back games Tuesday (8-0) and Wednesday (4-1) to the Rays. However, Bartolo Colon pitched eight scoreless innings and Josh Reddick hit a two-run HR Thursday as Oakland (57-48) beat Toronto 4-1 to avoid a third straight defeat. Coupled with the Angels losing the last two nights in Texas, the surprising A’s are now percentage points ahead of LA for the No. 1 wild card spot. Meanwhile, the Toronto loss was the team's FIFTH in a row, matching a season-high for consecutive losses. The Jays have suffered major losses to its starting rotation plus are now also playing without injured regulars Jose Bautista (wrist), Adam Lind (back) and JP Arencibia (hand). The Blue Jays have been outscored 24-8 during their five-game slide and it’s hard to see why lefty Brett Cecil will be able to “stop the bleeding.” Cecil is only in the rotation because of all the injuries to other Toronto starters. He went 15-7 in 2010 and seemed to have a bright future in Toronto but he was just 4-11 (4.73 ERA) last season in 20 starts, as he spent time in both Toronto and the minors. He began this season in the minors and wasn’t called up until injuries forced Toronto’s hand in mid-June. He pitched well in his first two starts (1-0 with a 2.45 ERA / team won both games) but he’s allowed 25 ERs over 34.1 innings of his last six starts for a 6.55 ERA. It sure hasn’t helped that his teammates have totaled two runs of support with him on the mound in his last three outings. Oakland will counter with Dan Straily, making his major league debut. He was a fourth-round pick of the A's in 2009. He could be just another in the seemingly endless supply of great arms the A’s possess. Straily has recorded 175 strikeouts in 138.1 innings of work, spanning 22 starts at Double-A and Triple-A this season. He’s 8-6 overall with a 2.60 ERA, including an “attention-getting” 1.36 ERA at Triple-A Sacramento. Take the A’s
SPORTS WAGERS
COLORADO +141 over San Francisco
The Rockies have been out of this race since May. For them, this is a season to forget but every team loves to make life miserable for those battling to make the playoffs and Colorado is no different. The Rockies defeated the Cardinals last night 8-2 to snap a five-game losing streak. They’ve scored 20 times over their past three games.
Ryan Vogelsong faces the Rockies for the second time in less than a week. In typical Vogelsong fashion, he escaped his last start against these Rockies virtually unscathed (7 IP, 1 ER) despite a dismal 3/5 K/BB ratio, as his string of unprecedented luck continued. His unusually high 86% strand rate will not and cannot last. Every mediocre pitcher has his implosions days and Vogelsong is ripe for one at this unforgiving venue.
This should be an intriguing start for Jonathan Sanchez. Everything was going swimmingly with him when he was a Giant from ’06 to ’11 before they traded him to the Royals. Since that trade, life in the big leagues has been tough indeed. Sanchez now gets a chance to pay back the team that traded him to Kansas City and he couldn’t have picked a better time to face the punchless Giants.
San Fran has dropped seven of eight and in half of those games they scored one run or less. In a three game set in L.A. last weekend, they scored three times. If Jonathan Sanchez has a good game left in him, now is the time to display it, as the Giants remain in a big time funk.
CINCINNATI -1½ +153 over Pittsburgh
Pivotal series for both teams, as the Pirates could make the battle for first very interesting should they win the series, while the Reds could stretch their 3½ game lead to 4½ or 6½ with a series win and/or sweep.
Pittsburgh’s Wandy Rodriguez makes his second start for his new club. In his first start against his former Astros club, he walked five and gave up three runs in six innings. Over the past month, his strikeout rate, walks and induced groundballs are all trending the wrong way. Rodriguez had been with the Astros for his entire career before this trade to Pittsburgh. He has never pitched a meaningful game in August but will do so here. In three starts against the Reds this season, Rodriguez has a 6.35 ERA. Current Cincinnati hitters have a .272 average against him in a combined 290 AB’s. He hasn’t fooled the Reds this season and with added pressure and throwing at Great American, it’s likely that he won’t fool them here either.
Cincy’s Mat Latos is coming on strong. Latos threw a gem in his last outing (8 IP, 2 ER, 8 Ks) at Coors Field no less. Against the Pirates, back in early May when he was laboring, Latos fanned 11 Pirates. He has 117 K’s against 40 walks and over the last month his xERA is just 2.92. The Pirates have had it easy since the break with two series against the Cubs and other sets against the Marlins, Astros and Rockies. A giant step up in class is likely going to bring different results.
Jack Jones
Chicago Cubs +144
The Chicago Cubs are showing excellent value Friday. Jeff Samardzija is killing opponents of late. The right-hander sports a 7-8 record with a 4.19 ERA on the season with 121 strikeouts in 120 1/3 innings.
Samardzija is 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA over his last three starts, giving up three earned runs over 19 innings. He's up against Chad Billingsley, who is 6-9 with a 3.89 ERA and 1.348 WHIP in 20 starts. Billingsley is 1-4 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.560 WHIP in nine home starts in 2012.
The Cubs are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Chicago is 4-1 in Samardzija's last 5 starts. The Dodgers are 0-5 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Los Angeles is 1-7 in its last 8 home games. Bet the Cubs Friday.
Jimmy Boyd
Cincinnati Reds -138
The red-hot Reds, winners of 13 of 14, get the call as our free play for Friday. Scheduled started Mat Latos has been rock solid at home, where he is 5-2 (8-3 on the money line) with an ERA of 3.89. He hasn't had any problem against the Pirates. In fact, he's 3-0 (4-0 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.16 in 4 career starts against them. The Reds are 10-3 in Latos' last 13 starts, 6-1 in his last 7 home starts and 6-0 in his last 6 starts vs. the National League Central.
The Reds are also 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter, and they'll have an opportunity to get to Pittsburgh southpaw Wandy Rodriguez tonight. He's 3-4 (4-6 on the money line) on the road with an ERA of 4.33 this season. He's also 0-2 (1-2 on the money line) with an ERA of 6.19 over his last 3 starts. His teams are just 2-6 in his last 8 starts. It is also worth noting that he is 1-4 on the money line in his last 5 starts against Cincinnati. Bet the Reds.
Dave Price
NY Yankees -1.5 -123
The Yankees get the nod on the run line as our free play because of how dominant Sabathia has been against the Mariners. He is 7-0 in his last 7 starts against them while only giving up a total of 5 earned runs in 51 innings. Those starts were won by an average of 6.6 runs and all of them were won by at least 2 runs. Take the Yankees on the run line.
Jeff Alexander
Detroit Tigers -150
Fading the struggling Indians, who have dropped 6 in a row by an average of 5.5 runs. The Indians are just 19-43 in their last 62 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150 and 3-11 in Masterson's last 14 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150 and 5-24 in the last 29 meetings in Detroit. The Tigers are 16-5 in their last 21 home games, 9-1 in their last 10 games as a home favorite and 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Tigers.
MLB Predictions
Atlanta Braves -1.5 -125
Houston comes into Atlanta after being swept by Milwaukee and are now 2-19 over their last 21 games. That puts them to 35-71 on the season and just 10-44 on the road. The Braves are one of the hotter teams in the Majors with a 18-6 record over their last 24 games, and come into tonight's game 8-1 in their last 9. On the season they are 60-45 with a 30-25 home record. Houston will send Armando Galarraga to the mound for his second start of the season. He pitched 5 innings allowing 5 hits and 2 earned runs at home vs Pittsburgh on the 28th of July. In the minors he was 3-2 with a 3.97 ERA over 10 starts, and last season with Arizona he went 3-4 with a 5.91 ERA over 8 starts. Tim Hudson will be on the mound for Atlanta tonight and he is 10-4 with a 3.68 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and .251 opponents batting average. Hudson had a great June where he went 3-1 with a 1.93 ERA, and although his ERA was up to 3.89 in July he finished the month 4-1. Take note that the Astros are just 13-48 in their last 61 games overall, and 9-43 in their last 52 road games. The Braves are 7-1 in their last 8 home games, 19-7 in their last 26 overall, 14-3 in their last 17 following a win, 21-8 in Hudson's last 29 starts overall and 16-5 in Hudson's last 21 home starts. Houston is winless in their last 5 in Atlanta and 3-13 in their last 16 meetings overall. This Houston lineup won't be able to compete much against the NL's top teams heading down the final stretch of the season, and will struggle tonight against one the NL's hottest teams at home with a solid starting pitcher on the mound. Take the Braves on the run line for 2 units as they win by a handful of runs.
WUNDERDOG
Texas at Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City +1.5
The Rangers are off a huge battle trying to hold off the Angels in the American League West, and came away with a 2-2 series split, despite allowing 40 runs in the four games, which has depleted their bullpen. The Rangers should be in a letdown mode after a big home series, and heading on the road vs. a below .500 team. The Royals are hot right now and on a three-game winning streak, and their offense will once again challenge the over-worked staff of the Rangers, as they have scored 20 runs in their last three games. The Royals have only been beaten at home four times in their last 15 here by more than a single run. The Rangers are just 2-8 in their last 10 when facing an opponent that scored 5 or more in their previous game. Play Kansas City on the runline.
SPORTS WAGERS
ST. LOUIS -1½ +139 over Milwaukee
The Brewers have won just 18 of 48 road games and will now face a red-hot Cardinals lineup that has scored eight runs or more in four straight games totalling 41 runs. That can’t be good news for Randy Wolf.
For two of the past three years, Wolf posted sub-4.00 ERAs and double-digit win totals while displaying skills that indicated that he was less than worthy of such success. This year, Wolf has run out of luck. He comes in with a 5.45 ERA and will now face a Cardinals team hitting a league best .283 vs. LHP’s. He’s walking more batters and more balls are leaving the yard. It's also notable that Wolf turns 36 next month. With the opposition getting such good wood on the ball (line-drive rate of 26%) and with the Cardinals currently seeing beach balls, Wolf is primed to get lit up again.
Joe Kelly is 1-4 with a 2.96 ERA but deserves more wins. He’s not as good as that 2.96 ERA suggests but the Brewers continue to make just about every pitcher they face on the road look good. This one is all about fading a brutal combination of a traveling Milwaukee bunch with Wolf starting.
Hollywood Sports
Milwaukee Brewers at St Louis Cardinals
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee (48-56) enters this game having lost 8 straight games as an underdog. The Brewers have also lost 6 straight games on the road. They send out Wolf who is 3-7 with a 5.45 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP this season. The lefty has particularly struggled on the road where he has been saddled with a 6.35 ERA, 1.72 WHIP and .341 opponent's batting average. Milwaukee has played 6 straight road games Over the Total with Wolf on the mound. The Brewers have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when Wolf was facing a team with a winning record. And this team has played 7 straight games Over the Total with Wolf on the mound as an underdog in the +110 to +150 price range. St. Louis (56-49) counters with Joe Kelly who is 1-4 with a 2.96 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP this season. Kelly has been very good at home where he sports a 2.30 ERA and a .245 opponent's batting average as opposed to his 3.70 ERA and an opponent's batting average of .266. The Cardinals have played 8 of their last 9 home games as a favorite.
Teddy Covers
Texas vs. Kansas City
Pick: Over
The Rangers went Over the total by themselves on Wednesday in their wild 11-10 thriller over the Angels. They did it again last night, pounding out 15 runs against LA. Big boppers Josh Hamilton, Elvis Andrus and Michael Young have all hit their way out of slumps during this span, putting the highest scoring team in the majors right back on track offensively after their post- All Star break doldrums.
That’s bad news for KC starter Jeremy Guthrie, who has been nothing short of awful this year. Guthrie is 0-8 with a 7.76 ERA in his last 13 starts, including an 0-2/9.58 since being traded to KC. With 24 home runs allowed in just 101 innings of work, a hot night in Missouri (heat index of 102) isn’t likely to help him cool off the hottest lineup in the majors.
But KC is hitting these days, pounding out 26 runs in their last four ballgames; at least five in every contest. Rangers starter Matt Harrison is finally showing signs of regression, allowing nine runs on 15 hits in his last two outings. The Rangers bullpen behind him is a disaster area following that series with LA, allowing 11 runs in a whopping 15.1 innings of work over the past four days. In a series that is 7-3 to the Over in the last ten meetings, expect another high scoring affair tonight. Take the Over.
Stephen Nover
Seattle Mariners +230
It's tough going against CC Sabathia at home, but this price is insane.
Seattle is playing its best ball winning 13 of its last 17, including the past seven in a row. The Yankees are 1-4 in their last five games. New York is 4-5 since acquiring Ichiro Suzuki, while the Mariners are 8-2 since dealing their former star outfielder.
The Yankees are going with a patchwork lineup right now minus injured Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira. Seattle starter Kevin Millwood has a 2.57 ERA in two starts against the Yankees this season. Millwood has a 3.52 road ERA, which is rather respectable for an American League pitcher.
Sabathia is being priced on his name, but he hasn't been in good form. He's allowed nine earned runs in his last two starts spanning 13 innings. During this time, he's put 17 men on base and surrendered three home runs.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Kansas City/ Texas Under 9.5: So how does one take an Under in game where one team just scored 26 runs in their last 2 games and are facing a pitcher named Guthrie? It's easy. It's called letdown. Both Physical and Mental. Texas is off a very emotional game vs the Angels and have used a ton of energy in two come-from behind wins in the last 2 nights. I really don't see this offense getting up for this one, and that should negate some of the inefectiveness of Guthrie. Jeremy has a solid 3.90 ERA in 9 career starts vs Texas, but an even better 2.58 ERA in 5 career starts vs them outside of Rangers Ballpark. Also knowing that Matt Harrison is on the mound for the Rangers could hinder their offense a bit as they know they may not have to score a ton of runs to get the win here. Matt has a solid 3.01 ERA on the road and while he was hit a bit in his last 2 starts overall he did come into those two starts having allowed 2 ER's or less in his previous 7 games. Matt does have a 4.37 ERA in 4 career starts vs the Royals, but just one of those have been here and he allowed 1 ER in 6.2 innings in that game. He will be facing a KC team that really struggles vs lefties as they have averaged just 3.6 rpg vs them overall and just 3.3 rp/9 innings off of them at home. KC has also hit just 18 of their 84 total HR's off of lefties on the year. We have a tired offense and a team that can't hit lefties taking on one good starts and one starter that has had good success vs their opponent. Looks like a recipe for an Under to me. No more than 7 runs in this one. Oh and this ISN'T a PA Play, but still take a look at the Extra Power Angle for this play below.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Houston/ Atlanta Over 8: Last night I had the Under in the Atlanta/ Miami game and it was a winner. Whew. LOL Anyway i will head the other way with this one. Tim Hudson has been pitching very well of late, with a 3.15 ERA in his last 3 starts, but he still has a 4.84 ERA and a slightly elevated WHIP of 1.40 at home on the year. His home starts have averaged 9.4 rpg, while his night starts have put up 9.91 rpg. Tim does have a 2.34 ERA in 8 career starts vs the Astros, but 6 of the 8 starts saw 8 or more runs scored, while the 3 starts here vs them averaged 11.3 rpg. Armando Gallaraga has just 1 starts on the year and he allowed 2 ER's in 5 innings vs Pittsburgh in that start. Armando has never been a great starter as he has an ERA of 4.59 in 87 career starts, while on the road he has a 4.91 ERA in 47 appearances (43 starts). The Braves are HUGE faves in this game and in Armando's 30 career losses he has a 7.07 ERA. Overall this Houston staff has allowed 6.04 rpg on there road and Atlanta should easily hit at least that mark, especially since they have put up 6 or more runs in 6 of their last 8 games and they average 6.4 rpg for Tim in his night starts. I like the RL in this game as well, but made it a lesser play, still I expect a ton of runs from a very good Atlanta offense, while Houston should be good for at least 3.
POWER ANGLE PLAY (10-1 Last 11)
LA DODGERS -154 over Chicago: Coming off a tough divisional matchup is not easy for any team, but the Dodgers were swept in their 3 game home set vs the Arizona, so some desperation has to set in here and what better way to get it back than to take on the 2nd worst road team in the league. Jeff Samardzija has been very good in his last 5 starts, but he can struggle on the road, with a 4-5 mark and a 4.71 ERA. Cahd Billingsley has had some problems this year and he is 1-4 with 4.32 ERA at home on the year, but he is pitching with confidence right now after road starts at St Louis and San Francisco saw him allow just 1 ER in 13.1 innings of work. Behind these two starters the Dodgers get a big bullpen edge as they have a pen ERA of just 2.51 at home, while the Cubs have a pen ERA of 5.16 on the road. Chicago is just 15-36 in their last 51 road games, while the Dodgers are 22-8 in their last 30 games on Friday. LA Needs this one in the worst way and they should get it vs a team that really struggles on the road. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Since 2008 the Dodgers are 30-5 as a home favorite vs a NL opponent when they are off a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits, used 2 or more pitchers and it's not the last game of a series.
NY Yanks/ Seattle Under 9: Six games have been played between these teams this year and no more than 8 runs have been scored in those games. In fact dating back to last year the last 8 in this series has put up no more than 8 runs. CC had a rough start in his last outing, but then again he always struggles vs Boston. In his 4 start before Boston he had a 1.94 ERA and at home this year he has a 2.78 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP. The Yanks offense does average 5.02 rpg at home, including 5.25 rpg in CC's home starts and that is fine because CC has allowed 1 ER or less in his last 7 starts vs the M's, while the Yanks as a team have allowed 2 ER's or less in each of CC's last 7 starts vs Seattle. Kevin Milwood has a solid 3.52 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP on the road, with his road starts averaging just 7.9 rpg. Over his career Milwood has struggled with the yanks but in 2 starts this year he has a 2.57 ERA vs them. Kevin has allowed 5 total ER's in his last 3 starts vs the Yanks and he has allowed and he has allowed no more than 3 ER's in 7 of his last 9 starts overall. Seattle does hit .260 and score 4.67 rp/9 off of lefties on the road, but as a team they have hit just .153 and have knocked in just 2 runs in 98 AB's off of this lefty. I expect no more than 7 in this one.
POWER ANGLES FOR TODAY (19-3 RUN) ( +14.45 UNITS)
Since 2009 Toronto is 1-33 as a road dog when seeking immediate revenge for a loss in which they allowed at least 4 walks and did not hold a 3+ run lead. Play on Oakland -130 over Toronto
Since July of 2011 the Under is 13-0 when Kansas City is a dog of 140+ after scoring 6 or more runs in a night game. Play On Kansas City/ Texas Under 9.5
Scott Delaney
My free pick once again is on the Kansas City Royals, this time against the Texas Rangers, as the American League Central doormats prepare to take on the American League West powerhouse, not to mention the two-time American League champions.
Kansas City is in after sweeping the Cleveland Indians, who had won eight of the last nine matchups in Kansas City before getting swept.
My thought process here is the Rangers just got done with a wild four-game split with the Angels of Anaheim, winning the last two in rousing fashion - by walkoff on Wednesday and with a 15-9 rout last night. Now they come to Kauffman Stadium, and I don't know if they're going to up for this game.
A bit hungover from the past two nights, I'm going to ride the team that has gotten me money the past couple nights, and take a shot with a great dog price.
Play the Royals tonight.
2♦ KANSAS CITY
Chuck O'Brien
How bad have the Cleveland Indians gotten? This team arrives in Motown after being swept in Kansas City, by the American League Central cellar-dwelling Royals.
It just a little more than a week ago the Tigers and Indians met, and Cleveland was battling for to stay alive and keep its postseason hopes alive, while Detroit was one of the hottest teams in baseball. Now they're in Detroit mired in a six-game losing streak, they're 7-1/2 games out of first place and the Tigers, well, they're still roaring on on the frontrunning Chicago White Sox's heels.
I know they've lost six of their last nine games, but that was after winning 13 of their previous 15, and they're not entirely out of it. What they need is a momentum-building series to get back on track.
Enter the Tribe.
The Indians are handing the ball to big right-hander Justin Masterson, who is 1-4 with a 4.59 ERA in eight career starts (11 appearances) against Detroit.
Tigers starter Anibal Sanchez lost his only career meeting with the Indians when he was a member of the Marlins earlier this season. But if there was ever a time he needed to step up for his team, and happen to be in the right spot to do so, it's in this game.
Honestly, I don't care if you list the pitchers, cause the Indians are playing sad right now. I'll leave that up to you.
3♦ DETROIT