Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, August 6,2010

Frank Jordan
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Chicago Cubs
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Tom Gorzelanny is 0-1 against the Reds this year, but does have a 2.19 era against them and is 4-0 over his last 5 starts. Bronson Arroyo is an 11 game winner and 1-0 in his only start against the Cubs not allowing a run, but did get the loss in his last road start. Look for the Cubs to flourish in this Friday matinee as they raise the W flag behind a gem of a game from Gorzelanny. Play Chicago Cubs

Steve Merril
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Nationals vs. Dodgers
Play: Over 7
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Washington continues their road trip thru the West as they begin a series in Los Angeles against the Dodgers tonight. John Lannan makes his second start for the Nationals after being called up from the minors. His last time out, he gave up two runs and seven hits in five innings pitched against the Phillies. Overall, Lannan is 2-5 with a 5.62 ERA in 15 starts this season. He hasn't seen the Dodgers since 2008 when he went 1-1 with a 3.46 ERA. Reed Johnson (3-10), Garret Anderson (4-8), Casey Blake (1-3), and Andre Ethier (1-2) all hit Lannan well. Left-handed hitters are smacking Lannan around to the tune of a .380 batting average. The Dodgers have four lefties they can throw out there in James Loney, Anderson, Ethier, and newly acquired Scott Podsednik. Los Angeles is averaging four runs per game against left-handed starters this season. Clayton Kershaw gets the start for the Dodgers. He's 10-6 with a 2.94 ERA in 22 starts this season. The lefty has been effective at home going 6-2 with a 2.88 ERA. He faced Washington back in April giving up two runs and eight hits in six innings of work. Adam Dunn (5-8), Ryan Zimmerman (3-7), Nyjer Morgan (2-7), Wil Nieves (2-6), Alberto Gonzalez (1-3), and Pudge Rodriguez (1-2) all have good numbers against the lefty. Washington is hitting .259 against southpaws while scoring 4.2 runs per game against them. Since both teams hit left-handed pitching well, this total is simply too low and we expect enough runs scored to get this game up and Over the total.

Cajun Sports
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: San Diego Padres
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
The San Diego Padres travel to the desert for a weekend series against the host Arizona Diamondbacks with the first game set for Friday night at 9:40PM EST. The Padres are perfect their last six on the road facing a team with a losing home record. San Diego has been solid versus teams with a win percentage below .400 posting a record of 16-5 in this situation. Arizona on the other hand has struggled against teams with a winning record going 17-36 and a miserable 20-44 overall this season. Key angle for this game is Arizona is 1-6 versus right-handed starters their last seven including 0-4 their last four at home. We will lay the short price with the Padres as they grab another victory on Friday night in the desert.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* San Diego Padres 5 Arizona Diamondbacks 4

Rob Vinciletti
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Angels vs. Tigers
Play: Over 7.5
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
This game fits a 16-2 system that plays to the over for home favorites off a home favored loss at -140 or higher vs an opponent who was a road favorite of -140 or more. These games average 12.6 rpg. LA. has J. Weaver going and he has gone over in 8 of 11 starts. In his last game herehe went just 4 innings allowing 4 runs on 7 hits before getting yanked. Verlander has not dominated the Angels like he has other teams and has a 4.44 era vs LA.. The Angels have gone over in 7 of 10 games vs losing teams in the second half and have a terrible 5.13 road bullpen era. Take the over here tonight.

Jim Feist
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Houston Astros vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Houston Astros
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Milwaukee has a losing record at home and has been a big disappointment all season. This high strikeout offense faces a very good strikeout pitcher in Wandy Rodriguez (95 Ks in 122 innings). He's been on a roll, at 3-0 his last three starts with a 2.14 ERA, fanning 18 with 4 walks in 21 innings. I'm not backing Brewers starter Dave Bush in this home run happy park, with a 7.80 ERA his last three starts. He's 0-2 against Houston this season, allowing 28 base runners in 16 innings. Play the Astros.

Nelly
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Tampa Bay - over Toronto
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Matt Garza has nearly been literally hit or miss lately, with a no-hitter and a one-hit six-inning effort in his last four starts but also two poor outings which he allowed eleven runs but did not take a decision. Tampa Bay is 13-8 when he starts however and even though his numbers are better at home he has proven to be a very capable starter in any setting. The Rays are 7-3 in Garza's last ten starts and he should give the Rays a chance to bounce back from two tough losses at home the last two days. Tampa Bay's bullpen has outstanding numbers for the season and especially in recent weeks with a 0.68 bullpen ERA over the last ten games until yesterday's fluky loss. The Rays have also had the best of the Blue Jays this season winning each series and going 6-3 overall. Toronto starter Brett Cecil has enjoyed a breakout season but the Blue Jays are just 3-5 in his last eight starts. Cecil has far worse numbers at home with a 4.82 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP while the Blue Jays have gone 4-4 in those games. Cecil has picked up two wins against Tampa Bay this season but both of those games came in St. Petersburg. Even with back-to-back losses Tampa Bay is 21-8 in the past 29 games to maintain one of the top records in baseball. Toronto is batting just .249 for the season and even though the Jays have power this should be a tough match-up against a motivated Rays team.

EZWINNERS
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Los Angeles Dodgers -241
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
The Nationals opening day starting pitcher John Lannan has not had a good season and was only 2-5 before being sent to the minors on June 21. Lannan was recalled from Double-A Harrisburg to start in place of injured rookie Stephen Strasburg and pitched five innings on Sunday. Lannan had an average outing allowing two runs off seven hits against the Phillies while earning the no decision. Its just a matter of time before he implodes and goes back to giving up the long balls that have killed him this season. With Clayon Kershaw on the mound for the Dodgers, Lannas has a very small margin for error. The Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw has really been pitching well. Over his last three starts Kershaw is 1-1 with an ERA of just 1.71. The Dodgers bats have not been providing Kershaw with much run support, but I expect them to come through in this game against Lannan. The Nationals are only 3-10 in Lannan's last thirteen road starts against a team with a winning record and the Dodgers have won twenty two out of the last thirty meetings between these two teams in Los Angeles. Play on the Dodgers.

Tom Freese
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
St. Louis at Florida
Play: Under
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Florida starter Ricky Nolasco has allowed 3 runs or less in 6 of his last 7 starts. Nolasco has 22 strikeouts and 4 walks in his last 3 starts. The Marlins are 13-5-1 UNDER their last 19 games off a loss. Florida is 7-3 UNDER vs. NL Central teams and they are 3-0-1 UNDER in Nolasco's last 4 Friday starts. St Louis starter Adam Wainwright has allowed 8 runs total in his last 7 starts. The Cardinals are 10-4 UNDER their last 14 road games vs. righty starters. St. Louis is 10-4-1 UNDER vs. NL East teams and they are 14-6-1 UNDER their last 21 Friday games and they are 4-0 UNDER their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

Jeff Alexander
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals -133
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
While the Marlins' Nolasco is having a good season, he has struggled at home, going just 3-5 (3-6 on the money line) with an ERA of 4.99. He has also struggled against the Cards, going 0-2 (1-3 on the money line) with an ERA of 6.55 in 4 career starts against St. Louis. While the Cards have lost 7 of Wainwright's 11 road starts, he has carried a respectable ERA of 3.37 in those games. It's all a question of run support as he is the better starter in this matchup, and he should get it tonight. The Cardinals are 10-1 in his last 11 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. Plus, Wainwright is 3-1 (4-1 on the money line) lifetime against Florida with an ERA of 2.83. The Cardinals are 19-9 in the last 28 meetings in this matchup. Take St. Louis.

SPORTS WAGERS
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
ARIZONA +1.01 over San Diego (1st 5 innings)
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
This is such a good spot for the D-Backs, or more notably, such a vulnerable spot for the Padres. You see, the Padres just completed seven of its last 10 games against the Dodgers and capped it off with a 5-0 win last night. Now they have back-to-back series with these Snakes and the Pirates on deck and we could definitely catch them flat-footed for game one of this series. Jon Garland will pitch at an extremely friendly hitter’s park here and it’s at venues like this that Garland really gets exposed. Garland is 1-3 with a 5.87 ERA in his last five games away from home and he’s also 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA as a visitor at Chase Field. Garland, who made 27 starts for Arizona last season, is 4-7 with a 5.72 ERA in 16 total games at the Diamondbacks’ home ballpark. Padres' General Manager Jed Hoyer knew that "The Spacious Confines" of Petco Park (Ballpark Tendencies: -24% runs, -39% LHB HR, -14% RHB HR) would suit Jon Garland's game, but even a big field can't hide deficiencies in a pitcher's arsenal for too long. Garland's xERA (4.41) has warned us all year that this was not a sub 3.00 pitcher. In June (5.28 ERA) and July (5.02 ERA), Garland's luck ran out when it comes to strand % and his ERA has skyrocketed. Where will it stop? Once a strong point, Garland's diminishing control is a warning flag that should not be ignored. The BPV says it all (for explanation of BPV see bottom of this page). This is a pedestrian skill set that is not likely to improve over the course of the season but is very likely to get worse. Daniel Hudson tossed a beauty on Sunday in his debut with Arizona. Prior to that outing he had a 6.32 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in 16 IP with the White Sox. A 35% hit% deserved some of the blame, but his real problem was poor command due to horrible control. Hudson flashed his upside at AAA Charlotte this year, posting a 108/31 K/BB in 93 IP. At age 23, he'll remain a work-in-progress, but as a young hurler in the NL West, his learning curve won't be as steep as it might have been with the South Side. Fact is, Hudson has solid skills, as his 20 hits and 18 K’s in 23 frames this year will attest to. However, this one is all about playing against that imposter Jon Garland and thus with San Diego having a huge edge in the pens, we’ll play this one in five. Play: San Diego in the first five innings +1.01 (Risking 2 units).

FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Houston +1.17 over MILWAUKEE
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
This is a pitching rematch from just five days ago in Houston in which Wandy Rodriguez beat Dave Bush 6-0. Bush went five innings and allowed 10 hits and all six runs while Rodriguez went a full eight innings, allowed five hits, zero runs and struck out nine. Overall Rodriguez is 9-11 with a 4.49 ERA but do not be deceived by his high ERA. He got off to a horrible start but has since turned the corner and has been as good as anyone in the majors over the past five weeks. Over that stretch he’s faced the Brewers twice and they can’t be feeling too good about facing him after scoring just one run in 15 frames while fanning 15 times. Over his last seven starts, Rodriguez has allowed one runs or less five times. This guy has found his groove big time and there’s no reason to believe it’ll end here. He’s feeling it. Also note that the Astros are playing great ball and have one of the best records in the majors since mid-June. Bush offers up zero value in this spot. He’s hit and miss and he’s always a big risk to miss. He’s been smacked around to the tune of 25 hits and 19 runs over his last 15 IP and what we have here is a very average pitcher favored over an elite one. Big overlay. Play: Houston +1.17 (Risking 2 units).

FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
NY YANKEES –1½ +1.44 over Boston
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
On paper these are the top two offensive clubs in the American League but Boston is banged up and has really been merely league-average since the break. Look for Yankee runners (Gardner, Jeter, Granderson) to be on the move -- Boston has allowed a league-high 107 stolen bases. The Yanks have won 5-of-8 against the Red Sox thus far in 2010 and have scored 7½ RPG in doing so and this is the series that they get extra juiced up for. Clay Buchholz has plenty of long-term upside. But his current sub-3.00 ERA and 1.29 WHIP are flukes. An elevated 79% strand rate and low 6% HR/F have kept his surface stats better than they should be. After a strong April (79 BPV), his skills show a sharp decline in May and June (22 BPV, 35 BPV). In 20 career innings vs the Yanks, Bucholtz is 0-2 (14 walks 9 K’s) with a 6.53 ERA. In one game earlier this year against NYY, Buchholtz went five frames and was torched for nine runs. Javier Vasquez is definitely risky but against this banged up unit and given his experience he could really take his game up a notch and thrive in this start. Red Sox are in trouble and this series could be the proverbial nail in its coffin. Play: NY Yankees –1½ +1.44 (Risking 2 units).

FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Saskatchewan +7 over MONTREAL
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Despite being 4-1, the Riders flaws have been exposed and after beating the Al’s in week one, revenge is on the minds of the Als. Big deal. The “revenge” factor angle is one of the most overused and useless angles in wagering. The Riders offense has not been sharp but has been masked somewhat by the success of FG kicker Luca Congi. They just can’t seem to get in the end zone and usually need a big play to even get down there. Darian Durant has just two TD passes over his last three games but has five picks over that same stretch. Still, there is no denying that the Riders can explode at any time. 7-points is a lot of points to be spotting a 4-1 team that has not really played that well. If they do kick it into gear here they have the ability to beat anyone. The Als seem to be getting stronger each week. However, we’re still not convinced that they’re as good as advertised. Its four wins came against B.C., Edmonton, Toronto and Hamilton and at least two of those were unimpressive at best. Thus far, the three elite teams in the eight-team league are the Stamps, Riders and Als and Montreal has only played one of them and lost 54-51 in the season opener. Laying points in this league has not been friendly to the bankroll and laying a converted TD to the potentially potent Riders simply cannot be recommended. Play: Saskatchewan +7 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Toronto +5 over EDMONTON
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Yeah, the Esks got off the mattress with a slim three-point win over a banged up Bombers squad last week. Fact is, a very catchable pass in the end zone was not made near the end of the game, which would have sent the Esks to its fifth consecutive defeat. The Eskimos are a team in trouble and a bit of turmoil after the firing of the GM last week. Coach Richie Hall claimed, “It should’ve been me”. The Esks simply are not sharp and haven’t been all year. Not being sharp in one game can be overlooked but when it occurs week after week, that should not be overlooked. Meanwhile, the Argos got a lethal dose of Montreal last week and now the media is calling the Argos early success a complete fluke. Toronto has been taking it on the chin all week in the newspapers and this is a great spot for a response. Remember, the Argos have played the Stamps twice and the Als once and that’s three of its five games against the best. They’re still 3-2 and will take a big step down in class when facing these Eskimos. The Esks defense is an extremely vulnerable one and Cleo Lemon could have his first big game here. Lemon has the arm and ability to excel in this league and it’s just a matter of time before he steps it up. We’re calling the Argos outright. Play: Toronto +5 (No bets).

ROCKETMAN
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play Toronto Blue Jays
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Tampa Bay is 3-13 this year when playing on Friday. Toronto has won 8 of their last 12 games overall. Toronto bullpen has a 3.83 ERA overall this year. Brett Cecil is 8-5 with a 3.77 ERA overall this year and has a 2.79 ERA his last 3 starts. Cecil is 3-1 overall vs Tampa Bay since 1997. Rays are 2-7 in Garzas last 9 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Blue Jays are 8-1 in their last 9 vs. American League East. Blue Jays are 21-9 in their last 30 home games vs. a right-handed starter. We'll recommend a small play on Toronto tonight!

Jeff Alexander
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals -133
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
While the Marlins' Nolasco is having a good season, he has struggled at home, going just 3-5 (3-6 on the money line) with an ERA of 4.99. He has also struggled against the Cards, going 0-2 (1-3 on the money line) with an ERA of 6.55 in 4 career starts against St. Louis. While the Cards have lost 7 of Wainwright's 11 road starts, he has carried a respectable ERA of 3.37 in those games. It's all a question of run support as he is the better starter in this matchup, and he should get it tonight. The Cardinals are 10-1 in his last 11 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. Plus, Wainwright is 3-1 (4-1 on the money line) lifetime against Florida with an ERA of 2.83. The Cardinals are 19-9 in the last 28 meetings in this matchup. Take St. Louis.

Info Plays

3* on Houston Astros +118
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Reasons the Astros win:
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (HOUSTON) - poor NL offensive team (=5.00), starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest. This is an 84-33 ML System hitting 71.8% since 1997 while gaining +54.6 units.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
2.) Houston is 7-1 in their last 8 games overall, outscoring opponents 61-20 in the process. Starter Wandy Rodriquez is 3-0 with a 2.14 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Bet the Astros on the road.

Jimmy Boyd
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
1 Unit on Minnesota Twins -1.5 -105
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
The Twins are showing solid value on the run line at this price when you consider how dominant Liriano has been. The Minnesota southpaw has won 4 straight starts by at least 3 runs, and he hasn't allowed a run in his last 3 starts. In addition, Liriano has been an Indian killer. He has won all 3 of his starts against Cleveland this season by at least 5 runs, while not allowing a run in 2 of those starts. The Tribes' Gomez has looked good in his first 2 starts, but I expect him to be officially welcomed to the big leagues by a good hitting team tonight (.282 on the season). The Twins are 10-2 in their last 12, and I like them to keep rolling against a Cleveland club that has dropped 5 of its last 6 at home. Take the Twins on the run line.