Doug Upstone
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Minnesota Twins
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The Cleveland Indians are off a successful 4-3 road trip and return home to face division rival Minnesota. That was the Indians first positive road excursion of the season (four games or more), as the offense perked up and the pitching was better than normal. The Tribe’s body of work suggests the lumber won’t stay hot, ranked 12th in the AL at four runs per game.
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Minnesota’s Francisco Liriano is riding a 21-inning scoreless streak and a four game winning streak coming into tonight. The Twins left-hander has completely controlled the Indians offense in winning three in a row over them, holding Cleveland to three runs in 22 innings this season and is backed with a top notch bullpen.
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Tonight look to Play Against home underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 who are weak AL offensive team, averaging 4.5 or less runs game against a team with a solid bullpen ERA of 3.75 or lower, in August outings. In the past 13 years, the record in sensational 53-14.
INSIDER ANGLES
Colorado vs. Pittsburgh
Zach Duke of the Pittsburgh Pirates and Jason Hammel of the Colorado Rockies both have shaky numbers over their last three starts, but there is a reason the total on this game is only 8, and it is because both hurlers are better than they have looked and both have reason to return to their good form here.
Duke has a 5.29 ERA in his last three starts but to be fair, that is entirely due to one bad outing last time out vs. St. Louis where he gave up sic earned runs in five innings. He had allowed two earned runs or less in each of his previous five starts though, and we see no reason why the southpaw should not bounce back well here vs. a Colorado offense that is batting just .225 vs. left-handers on the road away from the altitude this season.
Yes, the Rockies are batting an impressive .303 in the last 10 games, but keep in mind that stretch includes an eight-game home stand. Remember also that Duke allowed only two runs and three hits in six innings in his only start vs. the Rockies this year, and that outing came in Colorado last week. He should have continues success vs. the Rocks here at sea level.
Now, Hammel has a 5.85 ERA in his last three starts with none of those outings being Quality Starts. However, he allowed three runs or less in nine of his previous 10 starts right before this three-game stretch, and like with most pitchers, facing the Pirates may be all that Hammel needs to cure his ills. After all, Pittsburgh has now fallen to dead last in the National League in batting with their .241 team batting average, with only Seattle having a lower average in the majors.
Look for the pitchers to dominate on Friday night at PNC Park.
Pick: Rockies/Pirates Under 8
VEGAS EXPERTS
Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics
In left-hander Cliff Lee’s start against Oakland last week he went nine innings of without allowing an earned run and the Rangers won the game in extra innings without him getting the decision. He gets to face them once again tonight and should get the backing from his offense. He will be opposed by Dallas Braden who is 1-3 with a 4.36 ERA in his career against the Rangers. Oakland is averaging just 3.9 runs per game against left-handers this season. The Rangers are 3-0 when they are a road favorite of -150 to -175. Go with the Rangers here.
Play on: Texas Rangers
Jack Jones
Detroit Tigers -118
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This is a great price to back Justin Verlander and the Tigers at home Friday. Yes, Detroit has been struggling, but so have the Angels. Los Angeles was just swept in 3 games by the Baltimore Orioles, the worst team in baseball. Verlander is 12-6 with a 3.74 ERA this season, and he's been virtually untouchable at home. The righty is 7-2 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.118 WHIP in 10 home starts, and the Tigers are 8-2 in those 10 games. Jered Weaver has been the Ace of the Angels staff, but he's a mediocre 5-5 with a 4.38 ERA in 12 road starts this season. The Angels are 5-7 in those 12 games.
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This is one team that Weaver just cannot seem to figure out. That's indicated by the fact that Weaver is 2-3 with a 6.51 ERA and 1.661 WHIP in 7 career starts vs. Detroit. He was rocked for 4 earned runs in 4.2 innings of a 1-5 loss at Detroit back on May 2nd in his last start versus the Tigers. Despite Detroit's struggles, the Tigers are still 36-20 at home this season hitting .280 and scoring 4.8 RPG. Detroit is 13-2 against the money line in home games off a loss to a division rival as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. Verlander is 29-5 against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997, with the Tigers winning in these spots by 2.8 RPG. Bet Detroit Friday.
Dave Price
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1 Unit on San Diego Padres -110
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Padres have won their last 6 against Arizona, and I like them to keep mowing over the Snakes with Garland on the hill tonight. Plus, Arizona is 0-9 when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season this season, losing to these teams by an average of 4 runs per game. Take the Padres.
John Ryan
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
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5* graded play on Tampa Bay as they take on Toronto set to start at 7:07 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Tampa Bay will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 50-16 making 30.2 units since 1997. Play on all favorites in August with a money line of -110 or higher and is a poor hitting team batting <=.260 and now facing a good AL starting pitcher sporting an ERA <=4.20. Rays are in a series of strong positions sporting a 41-14 (+16.7 Units) against the money line versus AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs per game on the season this season. Rays are just 24-10 (+11.6 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season. Since becoming the manager of the Blue Jays, Gaston is just 46-79 (-38.7 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game. Take the Rays.
Freddy Wills
Houston Astros vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Take Houston Astros
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Wait... what??? Wandy Rodriguez, yes! I drafted this guy in my fantasy league and dumped him and he's now finally getting back to his old stuff. It's at the right time because the Astros are hitting the ball right now with a .313 average and 8.36 runs per 9 over their last 5 games vs. RHP which they will face on Friday. Rodriguez is also on 5 days rest which has always been a benefit for the Astros who are 16-5 in his last 21 on 5 days rest.
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He goes up against Dave Bush here who has an ERA close to 8.00 in his last 3 starts. He has 3 game starts vs. the Astros this year 16 IP 8 ER so nothing great with a 1-2 record. Brewers have not given Wandy many problems this year as they managed just 1 ER over his 15 innings pitched. Milwaukee just .159 vs. LHP in their last 5 with just .78 runs per 9. That has more to do with their season long struggles which have them batting just .232 at home and 3.93 runs per 9 vs. LHP.
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Bullpens have been erratic for the Brewers as of late while the Astros come in with a 1.12 ERA in their last 5, with the Brewers at 9.22. That's a problem considering Bush hasn't been able to go deep into games as of late nor against the Astros. Brewers just 3-14 in their last 17 following a team loss with Bush on the mound.
Black Widow
1* on Kansas City Royals -150
With the numbers Zach Greinke has put up against Seattle, we're willing to lay the juice on the Royals Friday. The Mariners have the worst offense in baseball, hitting .235 while scoring 3.2 runs/game this season. Greinke is 4-0 with a 1.26 ERA and 0.772 WHIP in 8 career starts against the Mariners. He has put up video game-like numbers in his most recent starts against the Mariners. In his last 4 starts against Seattle, Greinke has not allowed a single earned run in 30 innings. In his last 5 starts against the Mariners, Greinke is 4-0 with a 0.23 ERA allowing 1 earned run in 39 innings. Now that's getting the job done. Seattle is 1-9 in their last 10 games overall and have thrown in the towel this season. K.C. has won 4 of their last 6 games and continue to fight. Take the Royals on the Money Line.