SPORTS ADVISORS
Florida (55-53) at Philadelphia (61-45)
Red-hot Joe Blanton (7-5, 4.02 ERA) leads the defending World Series champion Phillies in the opener of a three-game set at Citizens Bank Park against the Marlins, who will hand the ball to Ricky Nolasco (7-7, 5.00).
Philadelphia halted a 1-5 slide by winning two in a row against Colorado the past two days, including Thursday’s 3-1 victory in which Cliff Lee made his home debut with the Phils by throwing seven innings of one-run ball. Despite their recent skid, the Phillies remain one of baseball’s hottest teams, as they are on runs of 22-8 overall, 16-4 at home, 6-0 against N.L. East foes and 7-3 in series openers.
Florida arrives in Philadelphia after getting swept in three games on the road by the dismal Nationals, who have the worst record in the majors. On Thursday, the Marlins jumped out to a 6-0 lead after two innings, then gave it all away and then some in a 12-8 loss, allowing the last four runs in the game-deciding eighth inning. Florida is on skids of 2-7 in division play and 3-9 on Fridays, but they’ve won four of their last five series openers.
Philly swept a three-game set at Florida last month and is 7-2 against the Marlins this season, with all but one of those wins coming on the road. The Phils are on a 9-2 overall run in this rivalry, though the Marlins have won four of the last five clashes in Philadelphia, including two of three in a May series. In fact, the visitor has won 10 of the last 11 between these squads.
The Phillies had won four in a row behind Blanton before Saturday’s road matchup against reigning Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum and the Giants. Blanton threw a solid seven innings, allowing both runs on seven hits, with no walks and five strikeouts, but he took the loss in a 2-0 setback. The right-hander has a 1.47 ERA over his past five outings.
Blanton is 4-2 with a 4.04 ERA in 11 home starts this year, and he’s won all three of his career starts against the Marlins while posting a 3.18 ERA. With Blanton throwing, the Phils are on rolls of 4-0 at home, 8-2 in series openers and 11-4 against division opponents.
The Marlins have won three in a row and eight of 10 backing Nolasco, including Sunday’s 3-2 home victory over the Cubs, with the 26-year-old allowing one run on four hits in seven innings, walking one and striking out eight. Nolasco is 3-4 with a 6.17 ERA in 10 road starts this season, and he’s 4-3 with a 4.47 ERA in 10 career appearances (seven starts) against Philadelphia. Florida is on runs behind Nolasco of 19-7 in series openers and 4-1 against winning teams.
For Philadelphia, the “under” is on tears of 10-1 on Friday, 6-1 in N.L. East action, 5-1-1 with Blanton starting and 6-2 behind Blanton at home. The under is also 7-2 in Nolasco’s last nine starts, and in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in five of the last six meetings overall. However, the over for Florida is on rolls of 6-2 overall, 5-0 in N.L. East play and 7-2 in Nolasco’s last nine road starts.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
Boston (62-45) at N.Y. Yankees (66-42)
The Yankees trot out A.J. Burnett (10-5, 3.89 ERA) to face Josh Beckett (13-4, 3.27) and the Red Sox in an A.L. East battle of right-handers for Game 2 of a four-game series in the Bronx.
New York ended a nine-game losing streak to their hated rivals on Thursday and did so in emphatic fashion, scoring eight runs in the fourth inning on the way to a 13-6 victory. The Yankees are on positive runs of 28-10 overall, 8-1 versus the A.L. East, 44-18 at home and 19-8 against winning teams. Joe Girardi’s team has a 3½-game lead over Boston in the A.L. East.
Boston has now lost three in a row and is on a 3-8 road skid, but remains on upswings of 27-13 in division play and 33-16 in series openers. And along with their 9-1 run against New York, the Sox are still 4-2 in their last six games at Yankee Stadium (2-1 this year). In addition, Boston is 7-1 in Beckett’s last eight starts against the Yanks and 4-1 in his last five outings at Yankee Stadium.
The Yankees ripped off six straight wins behind Burnett before the righty got shelled last Saturday against the White Sox, giving up seven runs on 10 hits and two walks in just 4 2/3 innings of a 14-4 road loss. Burnet is 4-1 with a 3.68 ERA in 10 home starts this season, and he’s 5-1 with a 3.80 ERA in 10 career starts against Boston, though New York has lost both of his starts this season against the Sox, with the 32-year-old giving up 13 runs (11 earned) in 7 2/3 innings for a 12.91 ERA.
The Red Sox are 7-1 in Beckett’s last eight starts, including a 4-0 win at Baltimore on Sunday in which he threw seven innings of shutout ball, allowing six hits with two walks and five strikeouts. Beckett is 6-4 with a 3.93 ERA in 11 road starts this year, and he’s 9-4 in 15 career regular-season starts against New York, despite a 5.42 ERA. The Sox have won all three of his starts against the Yanks this season despite Beckett’s 5.82 ERA
With Burnett on the hill, New York is on surges of 5-0 at home and 6-1 when facing winning teams. Meanwhile, with Beckett toeing the slab, Boston is on rolls of 17-5 overall, 5-0 in the division and 7-2 on the highway.
The over is on overall runs of 5-0-1 for New York and 8-2 for Boston. Conversely, the under for the Yanks is on stretches of 7-3-1 at home, 6-2 overall behind Burnett and 6-2 with Burnett starting at Yankee Stadium, and the under for the Red Sox is on upswings of 4-2 against winning teams, 8-4 on the road and 4-1 behind Beckett.
Finally, despite last night’s slugfest, the under is 6-3-2 in the last 11 meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
DUNKEL
St. Louis at Pittsburgh
The Pirates look to take advantage of a St. Louis team that has dropped 5 of its last 8 on the road when the total is 7 or less. Pittsburgh is the pick (+220) according to Dunkel, which has the Pirates favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+220).
Game 901-902: Florida at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Nolasco) 14.929; Philadelphia (Blanton) 16.450
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-150); Over
Game 903-904: St. Louis at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Carpenter) 13.884; Pittsburgh (Maholm) 14.456
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-250); 7
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+220); Over
Game 905-906: Arizona at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Garland) 16.255; Washington (Balester) 15.716
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+105); Over
Game 907-908: Milwaukee at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Villanueva) 14.211; Houston (Norris) 15.357
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-130); Over
Game 909-910: Chicago Cubs at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Zambrano) 15.225; Colorado (Jimenez) 14.933
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+120); Under
Game 911-912: NY Mets at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Perez) 14.262; San Diego (Correia) 14.921
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: San Diego (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-135); Over
Game 913-914: Atlanta at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Jurrjens) 15.116; LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 15.380
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-135); Over
Game 915-916: Cincinnati at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Bailey) 13.522; San Francisco (Lincecum) 16.514
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 3; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-300); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-300); Under
Game 917-918: Boston at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Beckett) 16.267; NY Yankees (Burnett) 15.933
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+115); Under
Game 919-920: Baltimore at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Berken) 14.259; Toronto (Romero) 15.118
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Toronto (-170); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-170); Over
Game 921-922: Minnesota at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Swarzak) 15.525; Detroit (Galarraga) 15.094
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+115); Under
Game 923-924: Cleveland at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Sowers) 15.897; White Sox (Buehrle) 17.297
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-200); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-200); Over
Game 925-926: Oakland at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Mazzaro) 13.724; Kansas City (Bannister) 14.912
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-130); Under
Game 927-928: Texas at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Feldman) 14.486; LA Angels (Saunders) 17.460
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 3; 12 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-130); Over
Game 929-930: Tampa Bay at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Niemann) 14.539; Seattle (Hernandez) 15.240
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-140); Over
WNBA DUNKEL
Detroit at Washington
The Mystics look to take advantage of a Detroit team that is just 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games against division opponents. Washington is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Mystics favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: Washington (-4).
Game 651-652: Detroit at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 106.828; Washington 114.761
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 8; 156
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 4; 154
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-4); Over
Game 653-654: Connecticut at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 113.524; Minnesota 111.144
Dunkel Line & Total: Connecticut by 2 1/2; 152
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 2; 155 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+2); Under
Game 655-656: New York at Sacramento
Dunkel Ratings: New York 105.926; Sacramento 113.072
Dunkel Line & Total: Sacramento by 7; 149 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Sacramento by 3; 148
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (-3); Over
CFL
Toronto at Montreal
The Argonauts look to build on their 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 games in Week 6. Toronto is the pick (+13 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Alouettes favored by 10. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+13 1/2).
Game 401-402: Toronto at Montreal
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 110.391; Montreal 120.352
Dunkel Line: Montreal by 10; 54
Vegas Line: Montreal by 13 1/2; 51
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+13 1/2); Over
Game 403-404: Saskatchewan at BC
Dunkel Ratings: Saskatchewan 105.965; BC 113.429
Dunkel Line: BC by 7 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: BC by 1; 59
Dunkel Pick: BC (-1); Under
Vernon Croy
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Play: Boston Red Sox
We are getting great value here Friday night with the Boston Red Sox who have Josh Beckett (13-4, 3.27 ERA) on the mound. The Red Sox are a perfect 8-0 in Beckett's last 8 starts with 5 days rest and they are also a perfect 5-0 in Beckett's last 5 starts against an AL East division opponent. Beckett has pitched solid in his last 3 starts with an ERA of just 2.86 and he allowed just 1 hit in his last start against the Yankees while striking out 8 batters over 6 innings. The Red Sox are 7-1 in Beckett's last 8 starts against the Yankees and they are 9-1 in their last 10 games overall against the Yankees. A.J. Burnett (10-5, 3.89 ERA) was hit hard by the Red Sox in two starts against them this season allowing 13 hits and 11 earned runs over just 7.7 innings and I look for the Red Sox to hit him hard again Friday night. Take the Boston Red Sox Friday night.
Cajun Sports
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Colorado Rockies
Coors Field will be the site of a four-game series between the host Colorado Rockies and the visiting Chicago Cubs with the first pitch set for Friday night at 9:10PM EST. Colorado returns home from a ten-game road swing which saw them go 5-5 SU losing the last two games of a three-game set in Philadelphia. Chicago enters off a series win versus the Reds although they failed to score in the final game on Wednesday losing 4 to 0. Not good news for the Cubs as they are 5-14 (-13.0) after a game with a combined score of 4 runs or less this season, 6-14 (-9.9) after scoring 1 run or less this season and 3-18 (-14.7) as an underdog of +100 or higher. Tonight they will hang their hopes on Carlos Zambrano who is 7-4 on the season with an ERA of 3.35. Zambrano is 1-0 his last three trips to the bump with an ERA of 3.24. The Rockies are 56-40 (+27.0) versus a NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better over the last 3 seasons. Colorado will send Ubaldo Jimenez to the hill with a record of 8-9 on the season and an ERA of 3.76. Jimenez has faced the Cubs once this season losing in the Second City 4 to 0. He pitched 3.7 innings allowing 3 earned runs on 4 hits with 5 strikeouts. We expect Jimenez to bounce back in this situation with our Pitcher Efficiency Index projecting a solid start for him in this contest. A check of the database gives us a system that is active for tonights game and it says to Play Against any MLB team after being shut out in a loss to a division rival, a team with a winning percentage of 51% to 54% playing a winning team. This system is 32-12 the last five seasons for 72.7% winners and +20.3 Units, over the last three seasons it has posted a record of 19-7 for +11.3 Units. Lay the short price with the host as they grab the all important Game One of this series.
Graded Selection: 2* Colorado Rockies 5 Chicago Cubs 3
Craig Trapp
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays -1.5
Baltimore has been playing very poorly losing 5 of last 6 games. BAL has been giving up runs at a break neck pace and with Berken going today for them we might see another high scoring affair. Berken has given up 13 runs in 13 innings over his last three games (0-3). Lucky for TOR they should not give up many runs today as they have there young ace pitcher Romero who has won 3 games in a row with a 3.45 ERA. In those games the hitters have also backed him up with a ton of run support. Can't imagine how TOR does not win by R/L today in an easy win. SCORE TOR 8 - BAL 3
Alex Smart
Edmonton Eskimos @ Hamilton Tiger-Cats
PICK: Edmonton Eskimos
The Edmonton Eskimos enter into this contest against the Hamilton Tigers Cats looking to extend their current winning run to three games. Last week the Eskimos super star QB Ricky Ray was in top form against the Montreal Alouettes at Commonwealth Stadium in a 33-19 win. He completed 23 of 27 for 363 yards (three touchdowns, and is now converting on just under 70 percent of his pass attempts this season. The pivot owns the second-highest yardage total (1,374) in the league before Fridays action .Ray and his talented WR corps will once again be the key component in what I am betting will be another big effort. I know the Eskimos have shown some defensive lapses in their defensive secondary this season, but there are still some decent athletes back there, and I doubt very much the inexperienced Quinton Porter (Ti Cats QB) has the tools needed to take advantage of that perceived softness. Meanwhile, Hamilton's offense depends way to much on RB DeAndra Cobb (6.6 YPC) to help them move the ball, and with the Eskimos well aware of this, they will have some surprises in store for their opponents that will curtail their offensive attack. With that said, I am recommending we back the Eskimos to cover the number and garner the straight up win.
Projected score: Edmonton 28 Hamilton 24
Red Dog Sports
Florida at Philadelphia
Play under 9.5
Ricky Nolasco has an ERA of 1.33 in his last 3 starts while Blanton for the Phillies has an ERA of 2.05 in that span. These two pitchers have combined for 1 over and 5 unders in their last 3 starts and with the pitchers hitting in this National League game I like the under 9.5 that is available in this Friday night game.
Nelly
Florida Marlins + over @Philadelphia Phillies
Ricky Nolasco had a very rough start to the season but he appears to have found the form that made him the Florida staff ace last season when he went 15-8. Florida is 8-2 in his last ten starts and each of his last three starts have been quality efforts, allowing just three runs and 13 hits in over 20 innings of work, all resulting in Florida wins. Although his ERA is still 5.00 based on a few rough early season starts, Nolasco has one of the best strikeout-to-walk ratios in the National League at 4.21. Florida's bullpen has also done a great job this season, particularly on the road with an ERA of 2.32 in all away games. Florida's bullpen has significantly superior numbers to Philadelphia for the season and in the past ten games. Joe Blanton has started to pitch better for the Phillies after a mediocre start to the season. Blanton has very average numbers for the year with a 4.02 ERA and 107 strikeouts leading to seven wins and five losses. Blanton allows a great deal of hits but has managed to avoid giving up big innings in his recent starts. Florida's offense is batting at a solid .271 clip over the last ten games and the Marlins are 9-6 in the last 15 games, with two losses coming in extra-innings and two others coming by just one run. Philadelphia is just barely above .500 at home this season while the Marlins have been a very strong road team. Philadelphia has had a lot of success in this series this season but this will be a critical juncture for the Marlins as a team that has pulled closer in the division race. Philadelphia is batting just .232 against right-handed pitching in the last ten games and the Phillies have been held to five or fewer runs scored in eight of the last nine contests while going just 3-5 in the last eight games. Things are lined up for Florida to make a move in this series.
Dave Cokin
Rangers @ Angels
Play: Rangers
It's put up or shut up time for Texas as the Rangers open a crucial weekend set with the Angels in Anaheim. The Rangers can't afford to lose this series if they want to stay close in the AL West chase. I like their chances tonight as Scott Feldman has done yeoman work on the road, while Joe Saunders continues to struggle for the Halos. I'll lean to the Rangers as road dogs this evening.
Jim Feist
NEW YORK METS VS SAN DIEGO PADRES
Take: OVER
These starters allow a lot of base runners, many without even swinging the bat. Oliver Perez of the Mets is a lost cause, with 47 walks in 48 innings this season. That won't cut it in Single A. He has earned that 7.03 ERA. San Diego righty Kevin Correia (4.73 ERA) has been very hittable, plus he allows 46 walks in 126 innings, a poor ratio. The Mets have been on a 7-4 run over the total. Play the Mets/Padres Over the total.
Marc Lawrence
Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals
Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks take on the Nationals in Game One of this three-games series when Jon Garland matches serves with Collin Balester in the nation's capitol tonight. Garland checks in off a complete-game win at New York against the Mets knowing he owns a super-sharp 2.79 ERA in his last ten starts. Meanwhile, Balester has dropped 5 of his 8 career team starts at home with a 5.14 ERA. With that, look for the Nats to fall to 1-7 as a host in this series here this evening.
Tom Freese
Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Under
Tampa Bay 10-1 UNDER their last 11 games as underdogs and they are 26-9-2 UNDER their last 37 games vs. righty starters. The Rays are 16-5 UNDER off a win and they are 5-0 UNDER in the last 5 starts made by Jeff Niemann. Seattle is 5-0 UNDER in the last 5 starts made by Felix Hernandez vs. the Rays. Seattle is 20-7 UNDER off a loss. The Mariners are 12-3 UNDER their last 15 games with Hernandez vs. AL East teams and they are 6-0-2 UNDER their last 8 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays
Since suffering his first career loss in May, Blue Jays left-hander Ricky Romero has developed into one of baseball’s top rookie pitchers while Orioles rookie right-hander Jason Berken hasn’t won since earning his first major league victory in that matchup. Romero takes the mound Friday night when the Blue Jays go for their sixth straight home win over the slumping Orioles. Berken is 0-9 with a 7.21 ERA in his last 12 starts and opponents are batting .313 against him during this stretch. He surrendered six runs and seven hits in a season-low 1 1-3 innings in Sunday’s 18-10 loss to Boston. Baltimore, which has an AL-worst 17-37 road record, is 5-15 since the break. Romero is 3-0 his last three starts and I look for the rookie to continue his consistent play this evening; look for the JAYS to take advantage of this weak team and improve to 5-2 (1.8 units) as a home favorite of -150 to -175!
BIG AL
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
Chad Billingsley has had a very eventful season. The fourth-year starter made his first All-Star team after going 9-4 with a 3.14 ERA in his first 20 starts. But since the break we've seen a different Billingsley as it's been a virtual roller-coaster for the big righthander as he opened the second half with a disastrous outing against the Astros, then pitched strongly again at home against the Reds before getting blasted and failing to make it out of the sixth inning against the Cards on the way to an embarrassing 10-0 loss. Billingsley was cruising in his last start, throwing five masterful innings with nine strikeouts before giving way to a hamstring cramp which has been a problem for the 250 pounder as Billingsley has a tendency to dehydrate. That last outing was in hot and humid Atlanta so a return to the milder climate of Southern Cal should definitely help. Atlanta's Jair Jurrjens will make his second start against the Dodgers in six days and Jurrjens hopes this one goes better than his start at home on August 2 when the Dutchman lasted only five innings and surrendered four earned runs on 10 hits. But the Dodgers have controlled this series lately, taking four of the last six contests. Take Los Angeles.
JR TIPS
CHICAGO CUBS vs. COLORADO ROCKIES
The Colorado Rockies go for their 15th straight win over a Central opponent when they host Chicago Cubs tonight. The Rockies (59-49) swept three games from Cincinnati last weekend to improve to 4-3 on a 10-game road trip, then dropped two of three at Philadelphia to fall a game behind the Giants in the wild card race as Colorado only totaled one run and 12 hits in consecutive defeats. After a 5-5 trip, Colorado returns to Coors Field, where it is 20-8 since May 29th.The Cubs (57-49) opened a 10-game road swing by dropping two of three to the Phillies, but rebounded to take two of three from the Reds although the Cubs only managed four hits in a 4-0 defeat Wednesday.Chicago who is 13-5 since the All-Star break, sends Carlos Zambrano (7-4, 3.35 ERA) to the mound tonight after back tightness cut short his previous start.Zambrano, 2-0 with a 3.07 ERA in his last three road starts, departed after three innings at Florida on Saturday night.The right-hander is 0-2 with a 4.12 ERA in three starts at Coors Field.Colorado's Ubaldo Jimenez (8-9, 3.76) looks to win three straight for the second time this season. The right-hander, 0-3 with a 7.27 ERA in four starts against Chicago, beat Cincinnati 6-2 in his last start Saturday. The Cubs have won 12 of the last 16 meetings with Colorado and have had success everytime they faced Jimenez. Look for the same results tonight's as the Cubs are a strong underdog.
TAKE CUBS+110