Dominic Fazzini
Cleveland at CHICAGO WHITE SOX
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The Yankees had an easy time with the Red Sox as a run-line pick Thursday, giving me five wins in my last six complimentary selections. Time to keep it rolling into the weekend!
Since throwing his perfect game against Tampa Bay on July 23, White Sox ace Mark Buehrle (11-5, 3.79 ERA) has been awful.
The All-Star left-hander is 0-2 with a 10.13 ERA in his last two outings. He allowed seven runs and 12 hits in 4 1/3 innings Sunday against the Yankees. Going back to his start before that, against Minnesota, Buehrle has allowed 12 runs and 17 hits over his last 5 2/3 innings.
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So how am I taking Buehrle today? Well, for one thing, Chicago is hot having won five of its last seven while playing the Yankees and Angels, the top two teams in the American League. And Indians starter Jeremy Sowers (3-7, 4.97) has been battered by the White Sox.
The Cleveland lefty is 0-6 with a 6.31 ERA in seven career starts vs. Chicago, including 0-4 with a 6.75 ERA in four starts this year!
Sowers is 1-4 with a 6.18 ERA in five road starts this season, while Buehrle is 7-2 with a 3.10 ERA in 13 starts at U.S. Cellular Field in 2009. And Chicago is 20-13 against southpaws this year.
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Also, the Indians are 1-5 in their last six games in Chicago, and the Sox are 4-1 in Buehrle's last five home starts against Cleveland. I think Buehrle gets his act together today while Chicago's bats continue to light up the scoreboard. Take the White Sox on the run line in this one.
3♦ CHICAGO WHITE SOX -1 1/2
Jeff Benton
Oakland at KANSAS CITY -130
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Brutal free-play loss last night with the Braves, who blew a 4-2 ninth-inning lead in L.A., but I'm still, I’m on a 19-11 roll with comp plays on the diamond. For Friday, I’ll back the Royals at home against Oakland.
You may recall that I gave you a monster plus-240 underdog winner on Kansas City with Sunday's freebie, riding Brian Bannister to a 4-1 victory at Tampa Bay. The Royals were no-hit through the first seven innings of that game but found a way to gut out a victory, thanks mostly to Bannister, who kept his team in the game.
Then again, Bannister has truly been THE only bright spot in Kansas City in the last month or so. In fact, prior to last night’s 8-2 rout of Seattle, the Royals had won just twice in their previous nine games, and both times, Bannister was on the hill. Not only that, but Kansas City has only eight wins in its last 27 games, and Bannister started three of those eight.
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Bannister comes into this contest with seven quality starts under his belt in his last 10 trips to the hill, giving up two earned runs or less seven times and pitching at least six innings in nine of the 10 contests. Over this 10-start stretch, Bannister has pitched at home six times and allowed a total of 11 earned runs in 40 2/3 innings, good for a 2.43 ERA. He’s also faced Oakland six times in his career and given up two earned runs or fewer in five of those games.
On the flip side, A’s rookie Vin Mazzaro has to be thisclose to earning a one-way ticket back to Triple-A. Over his last four starts, Mazzaro has surrendered 27 runs (23 earned) in just 18 1/3 innings (11.29 ERA), and the A’s are 1-9 in his last 10 outings (scoring two runs or fewer in seven of those games).
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Lastly, although the A’s swept a two-game series from the Royals in Oakland in mid-May, they had lost the previous six meetings, including getting swept in a three-game set in Kansas City last September. Simply put, if Bannister can give the Royals at least six strong innings like he has been lately, his offense should provide him with more than enough of a cushion to give K.C. a rare two-game winning streak.
4♦ KANSAS CITY
Matt Rivers
For Friday lay the small price with the Angels.
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Don't get me wrong, I would love to see the Rangers win the AL West this season but it just doesn't look like it's going to happen.
Mike Scioscia's Angels somehow just keep on winning. Yes they did just drop that series in the Windy City to the White Sox but things have been golden for a few months now and therefore back home at this cheap price I can't help but lay a small price on Joe Saunders and the Halos.
Texas, like always, can hit the ball and has kept things together very well this season unlike in years past as Ron Washington has done a great job but with Ian Kinsler on the DL and Nelson Cruz banged up and being here on the road and with the Angels having Vlad Guerrero back from injury I just think that Anaheim is too cheap here. Too many and's to overlook at a fairly cheap home chalk with one of the best teams in the majors.
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Saunders has struggled a lot more of late unlike Scott Feldman who continues to hurl quality outing after quality outing but I like the lefty and when push comes to shove still truly trust Saunders more than "Scott Feldman".
The Angels certainly don't intimidate many with guys like Morales, Figgins, Kendrick, Napoli and others but they just continue to get the job done game after game and year after year and in the home of the rally monkey I absolutely think they will get take care of business today and open up that division lead some more.
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1♦ Angels
Tony Weston
The Yankees and Red Sox put up the runs and run Over the Total just like I said giving me my 6th straight Comp Play Winner. I’m making it 7 straight tonight as I’m delivering once again.
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Tonight, I’m looking toward San Francisco where I’m taking the Under on the Reds-Giants matchup.
The number for this game is set at about 7 runs, which is absolutely ridiculous and a Total I’m taking advantage of.
The primary reason the Total is so low is because Giants’ star pitcher Tim Lincecum is scheduled to start. But, coming into this game the Giants have seen the Over come in 3 of their last 4 games as they’ve totaled, on average, 10 1/2 runs per game in that stretch.
Also working in the favor of the Over is that Reds’ scheduled starter Homer Bailey has gotten torched most of this season. He has a 7.06 ERA this season and in eight starts for Cincinnati this year the total for his games, on average, has been a hair under 11 runs per game (10.8).
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Also, over Lincecum’s last four home starts the Giants and their opponents have totaled, on average, more than 7 runs per game (7.2). And over his 11 starts at home this season, the team has Totaled, on average, 8 runs per game.
These teams will put up plenty of runs tonight and cruise past that Total. Take the Over in this one tonight.
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3♦ REDS-GIANTS OVER
Freddy Wills
Take Giants -1.5 -135
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Okay we've got Lincecum vs. Bailey and I'm very confident in this play it is not a premium play because I like a lot of other plays on the card today so stay tuned! Giants are 37-16 at home winning 78.4% of their wins by more than 1 run. Now is the time to strike with the run line as the Giants still have this image of being offensively challenged, but I disagree and the addition of Freddy Sanchez has sparked this club. The Giants are averaging .324 and 5.81 runs per 9 innings vs. RHP. Giants over last 10 .308 and 5.19/9.
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Better yet Lincecum on the mound with a 1.64 ERA over last 3 starts and has a 1.92 ERA at home. Lincecum has a 1.92 ERA at home and a 0.89ERA over his last 4 home starts and the Reds have never faced him.. The Reds who have struggled offensively won't get much help here today as they are batting .193 against RHP and are scoring just 3.43 runs per 9 over their last 10. They send Bailey to the mound where the Reds are 1-10 in his last 11 as a dog. He has the 8.22 ERA over his last three starts and the Reds are 22-31 on the road losing 80.6% of those road losses by 1+ run.
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Last stat, the Giants are just 14-8 in Lincecum starts this year if you followed him you haven't made much money however if you played the run line you cashed in as Lincecum and the Giants have won by more than 1 run in 13 of his 14 team wins.
Jeff Saad
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Red Sox at Yankees
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Last night was an offensive show, as John Smoltz got pounded, which was no surprise. That game sailed over the total by the 4th innings! Tonight will be a different story, with a pair of aces on the mound. Josh Beckett was the first 13 game winner, having a dominant season. A.J. Burnett is 5-1 with a 3.80 ERA against Boston and faces a banged up Red Sox offensive lineup.
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Play the Red Sox/Yankees Under the total.
DAVE PRICE
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1 Unit on Minnesota Twins -102
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I'll fade the Tigers tonight with the struggling Galarraga on the hill against the rock solid Anthony Swarzak. The Tigers are 0-3 in Galarraga's last 3 starts, during which he has posted an ERA of 5.85. In addition, he is 0-5 lifetime against the Twins with a 5.86 ERA. Swarzak has been great on the road this season, going 2-0 with a 2.22 ERA and he will have the advantage against a Tigers lineup which has never faced him tonight. Galarraga is only 2-12 against the money line in night games this season and I'll fade him here.
Rocketman Sports
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Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Colorado Rockies
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Two fairly evenly matched teams and pitchers going here tonight. Chicago Cubs are 3-11 this year as a road underdog of +100 to +125. Colorado is 57-40 last 3 years against a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season. Colorado has won 5 of their last 7 games overall. Cubs are only scoring 3.9 runs per game on the road this year. Colorado is scoring 5.6 runs per game at home this year. Zambrano is 2-4 overall vs Colorado since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Colorado tonight!
Scott Rickenbach
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Florida Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies
PICK: Under 9
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The Phillies come into this start off of a strong series against the Rockies. However, the Phillies have been held to three runs or less in six of their last eight games. Also, they're taking on a Marlins club that has to come into this series disappointed with themselves after getting swept by the Nationals in a three game set! Before yesterday's high-scoring loss the Marlins had been held to four runs or less in 12 of their last 20 games. Now, after getting swept in Washington, the Marlins stumble into Philly and we see a pitchers duel ensuing tonight!
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Joe Blanton gets the start for the Phillies. The right-hander is 3-1 with a 1.47 ERA in his last five starts. Going even further back - and showing just how amazingly consistent Blanton has been - he's 5-2 with a 2.33 ERA in his last 12 starts! Also, even though Citizens Bank Park is certainly a hitter-friendly park, it has not been bothering Blanton at all. He's 4-0 with a 1.84 ERA in his last seven starts in Philly. Blanton shut the Marlins down in Philadelphia in late May and can do the same here. However, we can also expect a very strong start from Ricky Nolasco of Florida here and that's why the play here is the under. Nolasco is 1-0 with a 1.33 ERA in his last three starts. He's allowed two earned runs or less in nine of his last eleven outings. Even though Nolasco was less than stellar the last time he faced the Phillies he is still a solid 3-1 with a 3.51 ERA in his last five starts against the Phils. Consider a small play on UNDER the total in Philadelphia on Friday night.
TEDDY COVERS
Cleveland Indians @ Chicago White Sox
PICK: Over 9
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To say that the White Sox have owned Jeremy Sowers in recent seasons is something of an understatement. Sowers has faced the ChiSox six times over the last two years, sporting an 0-6 record and a 6.98 ERA in those ballgames. In four previous meetings this year alone, the White Sox have him for a .322 batting average with a .586 slugging percentage, and they’ve pounded him twice in the last month. The White Sox offense is clicking right now, pounding out 48 runs in the first seven games of their current homestand. For the season, Ozzie Guillen’s squad is hitting .32 points higher against lefties than righties, more bad news for Sowers and the suspect bullpen behind him.
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Mark Buehrle can’t exactly be trusted right now either. Since his perfect game against the Rays on July 23rd, Buehrle has been clubbed in each of his last two starts, allowing 17 hits and 12 runs in just 10.2 innings of work against the Twins and Yankees. His peripheral stats are particularly problematic, striking out only three batters in those two ballgames. The Indians are crushing lefties right now, hitting .336 against southpaws in their last ten games. And Cleveland has enjoyed plenty of success against Buehrle. Dating back to the start of the ’06 campaign, Buehrle is just 3-6 in 15 starts against the Tribe, with a 5.78 ERA while allowing the Indians to hit well over .300 against him.
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2* Play: Take the Over.
Stephen Nover
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees
PICK: New York Yankees
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The timing is everything saying makes sense here. The Yankees relieved their frustration of having lost the first eight meetings to the Red Sox this season by burying them, 13-6, at Yankee Stadium last night.
Look for the Yankees to ride that momentum tonight, while the Red Sox continue to stagger.
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Boston's problems began at Tampa in mid-week getting swept in a two-game series against the Rays. Now they're running into a hot and mad Yankees squad that has won four in a row and owns the best home record in the American League. The Yankees are 44-18 during their past 62 home contests. They are batting .351 and averaging 8.5 runs during their winning streak.
The price is low because the Red Sox are throwing ace Josh Beckett. But while Beckett has been the nuts at home going 7-0 with a 2.58 ERA, his road ERA is 3.93. He has a 5.82 ERA in three starts versus New York this season. Boston isn't the strongest road team either. The Red Sox are 3-8 in their last 11 away games.
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Injuries also make this a terrible spot for Boston. Jason Bay probably won't play again because of a hamstring injury. That could mean Kevin Youkilis patrolling left field as Rocco Baldeilli also is out. On top of this, shortstop Jed Lowrie injured his arm last night and also could be out of action.
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A.J. Burnett has pitched like an ace this season for the Yankees. The Yankees are 8-1 the past nine times Burnett has been favored.
This is a one-unit play.
LARRY NESS
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Florida Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies
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Ricky Nolasco was injured for most of the 2007 season but rebounded in 2008 to go 15-8 with a 3.52 ERA for the Marlins, who won 21 of his 32 starts. He opened the 2009 season pitching horribly, going 2-5 with a 9.07 ERA through his first nine starts (team was 4-5). However, he's allowed two ERs or less in nine of his last 11 starts, going 5-2 with a 2.58 ERA (team is 8-3). That's the good news. The bad news is that the Marlins 'limp' into this weekend series having lost four of their last six games, including three in a row this week to the lowly Nationals. The Nats, owners of MLB's worst record, completed a three-game home sweep of the Marlins on Thursday afternoon, overcoming a 6-0 deficit to win 12-8. A team can't get much lower than that! The Marlins open this weekend series in Philly, seven games behind the Phillies, the biggest deficit in any division. The Phillies went 9-1 in a 10-game homestand heading into the All Star break and have continued their fine home play since the break, going 7-3. That gives the defending champs 16 wins over its last 20 home games. Joe Blanton opposes Nolasco and he's 4-0 with a 1.84 ERA over his last seven home starts (team is 5-2). Take the Phils.
Mike Rose
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees Over 9.0
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Manager Terry Francona will hand the ball to his ace, Josh Beckett. Beckett has turned himself into a legitimate Cy Young Award contender in the American League, as he is 13-4 with a 3.27 ERA after a miserable start to the season. The right-hander is 6-1 in his L/8 starts, and Red Sox bettors are 7-1 in those games. Hes averaged striking out 6.4 batters per game and only has a 2.44 ERA in that stretch; in four of those outings, Beckett didnt allow a run. He tossed seven scoreless frames to pitch the BoSox to a 4-0 victory in his most recent start against the Baltimore Orioles. The Yankees have figured him out this season though, as he owns a hefty 5.82 ERA in three starts. However, the Sox are a perfect 3-0 in those games, and Beckett has gotten the win in two of them.
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Opposing the right-hander will be his former teammate, AJ Burnett. Burnett, who played with Beckett on the Marlins for several seasons, is 10-5 with a 3.89 ERA this year. After a stretch of 11 straight starts of allowing three or fewer earned runs, Burnett was lit up for seven runs in 4.2 innings of New Yorks 14-4 loss at US Cellular Field on August 1st. The righty has been dominated by Boston this season, as hes 0-1 with a 12.91 ERA in two starts. This is against the grain for his career though. Coming into this season, Burnett was 5-0 with a 2.56 ERA against the Sox. If the Yankees hope to pick up the victory tonight, he'll have to pitch a lot more like the guy who was undefeated against the Sox before this season and a lot less like he has already this year.
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Its pretty clear that both of these offenses have the ability of lighting up the scoreboard. Neither pitcher has had success against the other squad this year. Under bettors may be 7-2-2 in the L/11 games between these teams, but tonight, that trend should be bucked. The ball flew out of Yankee Stadium at a rampant pace last night, and the same should be true for tonights contest. Expect to see a crammed stat sheet and a lot of pitchers used by the time the nights over.
Alex Grosse
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals
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This matchup will be a high scoring affair for few reasons. The Nats and Dbacks have both been hitting exceptionally well versus right handed pitchers averaging 0.299 & 0.294 over their last 10. Washington has been OVER machines as of late, with the OVER hitting 10 times in Washington’s last 11 contests. Overall, each team has been managing to put points on the board. Arizona has scored 40 runs in its last 6 contests, meanwhile Washington has scored 38 in its last 6. That’s a combined average of 13 runs per game! There is a lot of value in playing the OVER.
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4 units on the OVER.
Spartan
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Milwaukee at Houston
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I am suggesting a wager on the Houston Astros and rookie pitcher Bud Norris as he makes his home debut this season against the Brewers. Norris was brilliant last sunday in St Louis as he out dueled Adam Wainright and the Cardinals 2-0. Norris tossed 7 scoreless frames at the Cards and did all that could be asked in such a tough matchup. Now he gets a start for the first time in front of the home crowd and I expect another stellar performance. The Brewers counter with Carlos Villanueva, 2-8, 5.98. I feel the price is reasonable and I like the youngsters chances to keep it rolling here.