ATS Consultants
Kansas City Royals -125 over Oakland Athletics
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Not the most exciting weekend series, but we’re looking for betting opportunities, and this one looks too good to be true. Brian Bannister takes the mound for Kansas City, while Vin Mazzaro goes for the A’s.
Mazzaro (2-8, 5.73) won his first two decisions but has been awful since. Actually, awful is too nice of a word. He simply hasn’t been able to get anyone out with any consistency. He’s 0-4 with a 9.64 ERA in his last 5 starts, including three starts where he allowed at least 6 runs. Oakland feels he’s a part of their future, so they’ll stick with him for now, but he has to be on a short leash.
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Bannister (7-7, 3.59) has had a nice bounce back season after a miserable 2008 that saw him back in the minors he was so awful. He’s solidified himself as a part of the Royals future, which looks pretty good, at least pitching wise. He’s 1-1 with a 2.78 ERA in his last 5 efforts. This looks like a no brainer tonight, especially at only -125.
Tampa Bay Rays/Seattle Mariners UNDER 8
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Two teams looking to get back into the playoff hunt in the American League begin a weekend series in Seattle tonight. Very good pitching matchup between Jeff Niemann and “King” Felix Hernandez.
Niemann (10-5, 3.62) has been a huge surprise for the Rays in 2009 and has clearly become a big part of their plans going forward. He began the seaosn as the fifth starter only due to an injury to Scott Kazmir, but has surpassed Andy Sonnanstine as the #5 starter. Expect another good effort tonight in Seattle.
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Hernandez (12-4, 2.78) is having a fantastic year, and is in the running for the American League Cy Young Award. Seattle had many offers for him at the deadline, but decided not to move him, which was a smart move. He’ll be a force for years to come at the top of that rotation. He’s 3-1 with a 3.77 ERA in his last 5 starts, but that’s a little skewed because of one bad start on July 27. In that one, he allowed 7 runs on 11 hits in 5 2/3 innings. Besides that one, he’s only allowed 4 runs in 22 innings pitched. We expect a low scoring game tonight at Safeco.
Drew Gordon
Florida +130 at PHILADELPHIA
Now on a 36-26 roll with the plays I'm giving away, including the Diamonbacks over the Pirates 11-6 last night! For tonight's complimentary play, we're looking at the Florida/Philadelphia match up...
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True, the Marlins just got swept by the surging Nationals. True, they've also struggled against the Phillies this season, going 2-7 against them. However, that being said, I'm expecting a strong bounce back here tonight. The Fish are not only desperate for win, but also have one of their hottest arms on the hill in this one...
Ricky Nolasco may have been inconsistent early on this season, but a trip to the minors worked wonders for the Marlins righty, who's yielded 2 earned runs or fewer in 9 of his L11 starts! Not only has he been red-hot of late, going 1-0 with a stellar 1.33 ERA over his L3 starts, but the Fish have won 8 of the last 10 games he's started! One final note on Nolasco, he's 3-1 with a solid 3.51 ERA in 5 starts against the Phillies since last season, so underestimate the Marlins righty at your own loss in this match up!
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Opposing Nolasco is the Phillies Joe Blanton, who admittingly has also been red-hot for the Phillies, going 3-1 with a 1.47 ERA in his L5 starts. He's also got strong numbers against the Fish, going 3-0 with a 3.18 ERA in 3 career starts against them. Granted, I never said it was going to be easy, but Blanton is going to have to be next-to-perfect to outpitch Nolasco in this contest, and I just don't see that happening.
Finally, public perception also plays a roll, as I know plenty of bettors just watched the Marlins lose 3 straight to the lowly Nationals, and are now lining up to bet against them. Not so fast, as you simply cannot ignore Nolasco's recent surge, AND the fact the Marlins NEED to get back on track. Look for a razor sharp effort from the Fish, as they bounce back strong Friday night!
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Take the Marlins behind Nolasco over the Phillies and Blanton in this MLB match up.
2♦ FLORIDA
Michael Cannon
St. Louis at PITTSBURGH
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A nice free winner with the Yankees on the run line last night!
Let’s stick with the run line and take the Cardinals to beat up on the Pirates tonight on the road.
The Buccos have virtually no chance tonight. It’s bad enough they traded their entire starting lineup, but now they have to face a pitcher they’ve had zero success against with a lineup chalk full of Triple-A rejects and marginal major leaguers.
Chris Carpenter starts for St. Louis and the right-hander has flat-out owned the Pirates in his career. He’s 10-1 with a 2.06 ERA in 12 lifetime starts against Pittsburgh and has posted a 0.73 ERA in winning his last five starts against them.
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Carpenter has been blowing everyone away recently as well, going 5-0 with a 1.60 ERA in his last six starts.
The Buccos will counter with Paul Maholm, who is 0-2 with a 7.94 ERA in his last three starts overall.
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Take the Cardinals on the run line as they win easily tonight in the Burgh.
3♦ ST. LOUIS -1 1/2