SPORTS ADVISORS
L.A. Dodgers (54-31) at Milwaukee (44-41)
The Dodgers open a three-game set at Miller Park in Milwaukee with ace Chad Billingsley (9-4, 3.14 ERA) on the mound against the Brewers’ Braden Looper (7-4, 4.78).
Los Angeles’ brings baseball’s best record into Milwaukee as it makes the last stop on a nine-game road trip that has seen the team go 4-2 thus farafter crushing the Mets 11-2 on Thursday. The Dodgers carry into this contest positive streaks of 5-0 in series openers, 5-1 against right-handed starters and 4-1 on the road against teams with a winning record. Against the Brewers, Los Angeles holds a 35-17 advantage in the last 52 meetings.
Milwaukee fell 5-1 at home to the Cardinals on Thursday, dropping two of three to its division rivals. The Brewers are just 2-6 in their last eight overall and 6-14 in their last 20 against right-handed pitchers, but they are on positive runs of 16-7 in series openers and 44-19 at home against opponents with winning road marks.
Billingsley allowed three runs on four hits over eight innings Sunday in San Diego, but got a no-decision in the Dodgers’ 7-6, 13-inning victory. The right-hander has held the opposition to three earned runs or less in seven of his last eight starts and he’s gone at least six innings in nine of his last 10 outings.
Billingsley is 3-1 with a 2.92 ERA on the road this season, and he dominated the Brewers twice last season, going 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA as he allowed just four runs on eight hits over 14 innings. Los Angeles is 0-4 in Billingsley’s last four Friday starts but 5-2 in his last seven series-openers.
Looper is 2-0 with a 2.95 ERA in his last three outings and 4-1 in 10 starts at Miller Park this season, with the Brewers winning seven of those contests. On Saturday, the veteran right-hander gave up two runs on six hits in six innings of an 11-2 victory in Chicago as the Brewers improved to 3-0 in his last three outings. Looper has only one career start against the Dodgers, back in 2007 when he was with the Cardinals, and he allowed just one run on four hits in six innings of a 6-1 victory.
With Billingsley pitching, the Dodgers are on “over” runs of 6-1-1 in series openers and 4-1-1 on the road against winning teams. As a team, Los Angeles has topped the total in five of six overall, seven of eight on the highway and five of six on the road against right-handed starters. Also, the over is 4-1 in Looper’s last five starts overall and 7-1 in his last eight against winning teams, but as a team, Milwaukee is on “under” streaks of 10-2-1 on Fridays, 8-2 against the N.L. West and 6-1 against right-handed starters.
Finally, the “over’ has been the play four of the last five in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. DODGERS
N.Y. Yankees (51-34) at L.A. Angels (46-37)
The Yankees look to make it four straight wins when they send Joba Chamberlain (4-2, 4.04 ERA) to the hill to face Angels’ lefty Joe Saunders (8-5, 4.44) at Angel Stadium in Anaheim.
New York completed a three-game sweep in Minnesota Thursday with a 6-4 victory, running its road winning streak to eight. The Yankees are on further streaks of 36-17 overall, 50-24 as a favorite, 14-3 on Fridays, 10-2 following a win, 4-0 in series openers, 7-0 against southpaws and 10-4 against the A.L. West.
The Angels fell out of first place in the A.L. West when they dropped two of three this week to the Rangers in Anaheim. Still, L.A. is riding positive streaks of 17-8 overall, 19-7 as a home ‘dog, 4-1 on Friday and 4-0 in series openers. In this rivalry, the Angels are 5-1 in the last six meetings in Southern California, but the Yankees took two of three in New York earlier this season.
Chamberlain hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any of his last 10 starts. On Sunday, he surrendered eight runs (but only three earned) just 3 2/3 innings at home, but his offense bailed him out with a 10-8 win over Toronto. With Chamberlain on the hill, New York is on runs of 6-1 overall, 4-1 on the road, 18-6 as a favorite and 4-0 against teams with winning records.
Chamberlain is 4-0 with a 2.74 ERA on the highway this season, and tonight marks his first career start against the Halos.
Saunders has struggled lately, going 1-1 with a whopping 8.40 ERA in his last three outings. He gave up six runs (five earned) in 5 1/3 innings on Sunday against Baltimore, but L.A. escaped with a 9-6 home win. That came after Saunders yielded eight runs on six hits in 3 2/3 innings in a 9-5 loss at Texas on June 30.
Saunders is 4-2 with a 3.43 ERA in nine home starts this year, and he’s 1-1 with a bloated 7.63 ERA in three career starts versus the Yankees. With Saunders on the mound, the Angels are on positive streaks of 55-25 overall, 4-0 at home, 23-11 against teams with a winning record, 11-4 on Friday and 8-3 against the A.L. East.
With Chamberlain dealing, the Yankees are on “over” runs of 4-1 overall and 4-1 as a favorite, and as a team, New York is also on “over” upticks of 5-1 overall, 4-1 against southpaws and 9-3-1 against the A.L. West. With Saunders pitching, Los Angeles is on “over” streaks of 7-0 overall, 4-0 at home, 4-0 against the A.L. East, 4-1 on Fridays and 4-1 as a ‘dog. Additionally, the Halos are riding “over” runs of 4-1 overall, 4-1-1 against the A.L. East, 6-2 in series openers, 10-4-2 on Fridays and 11-4-1 against right-handed pitching.
The over is 13-4 in the last 17 Yankees-Angels clashes and 10-3 in the last 13 battles in Anaheim.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Big Al McMordie
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Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Texas Rangers
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Texas has two representatives on the AL roster for the 2009 All Star game, and interestingly enough, both are offensive players, OF Josh Hamilton (who missed about half the season so far with injury) and 3B Michael Young. It's interesting because it's really been the Texas pitching that has been responsible for this team's surprise first-half run. Three righthanded starters Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, and tonight's mound man Scott Feldman have a combined record of 23-12 and an ERA well under four runs. Of the three, Feldman is by far the most pleasant surprise on this team. He continues to throw mostly quality starts despite not having particularly hard stuff and he seems to get the outs when he needs them. He's done most of this without the support of the aforementioned Hamilton, who just came off the DL and should give Feldman and the rest of the staff a much-needed offensive boost. Seattle southpaw reliever-turned-starter Garrett Olson has done something very strange so far in 2009. He's managed to pitch better on the road (much better as a matter of fact) than at home, despite having the advantage of one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in all of baseball. At Safeco Field, Olson has struggled to an 0-2 record and 5.31 ERA in seven appearances (three starts) while on the road, he is undefeated (3-0) with a 4.15 ERA. Strange indeed. And also troubling because tonight's start is at Safeco. Take the Rangers.
Craig Trapp
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Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Texas Rangers
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Texas looks to have fixed there problems that they had in mid June. They have won 7 of last 10 games including sweeping TB and winning 4 of 6 over LAA. Not a small task as both team had been playing very well before they played. Big advantage to TEX today as they have much better starting pitching today. Feldman toes the rubber today looking for his third win in a row. His last two wins he has went 12 innings and only allowed 4 runs. On the other hand SEA has had to put reliever Morrow in the starting lineup again today. He has not done well in recent starts allowing over a 5.5 ERA!! The bigger problem though for SEA has come at the plate where they have averaged just under 4 runs a game in the last 10 games. Stark contrast to TEX who has exploded lately scoring over 5.5 runs per game in last 10. Pretty easy win here for TEX!! TEX -120
Bob Harvey
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Tampa Bay Rays -160
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The key to staying on top in this game is to stay on top of the streaks. Like Tampa Bays current eight game winning skein. The Devil Rays are playing their best baseball of the season and everyone is contributing. Offensively the Rays are hitting .301 and outscoring opponents 48-24. The pitching staff is also doing its part posting a 2.97 ERA over their last eight outings. The Rays are 19-3 at home since they lost consecutive home games and rank among the leagues best with an overall home record of 29-13.
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Oakland comes in having lost 10 of its last 14 games and will be looking to rookie Vinnie Mazzaro to stop the bleeding. Mazzaro won his first two big league starts but has gone 0-4 since with a 5.28 ERA in five outings.
Tampa Bay will counter with Jeff Niemann who is 7-4 with a 4.14 ERA and is 1-0 against the As.
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The Athletics have more than held their own this season against the Rays. The two teams split a four-game series in May and the As took two out of three from the Devil Rays in April. However Tampa Bays offense has improved dramatically since those earlier meetings. The Rays rank in the top in the big leagues in the five major categories. Theyre second in runs per game and OPS, fourth in homeruns, fifth in batting average (.272) and are first in stolen bases. On the flip side, Oakland is 23rd in scoring per game, 29th in average and 30th in OPS. Thats what happens when you stock your team with players well past their prime.
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Oakland is 16-27 on the ML but in comparison is 42-41 on the RL.
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The money line is the play for me tonight and even though it pains me to lay the -160 with Tampa Bay, it�s an investment that should pay a nice return.
Red Dog Sports
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Pittsburgh vs. Philadelphia
Play: Under 9
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Pittsburgh has gone under 19-7-2 in their last 28 games. Zack Duke has an ERA of 3.32 in his last 3 starts with 7 overs and 10 unders. Blanton of the Phillies has an ERA of 2.33 in his last 3 starts with 5 overs and 8 unders. These two have combined for 72 overs and 86 unders this year. Play under the total on Friday night!
Marc Lawrence
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Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins
Prediction: Minnesota Twins
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The Twins and White Sox open a huge three game series in Minnesota tonight where Nick Blackburn matches serves against John Danks. The Pale Hose enter tonight's game with 14 losses in their last 20 games on Fridays while the Twins have come up winners in 16 of their last 21 games on Fridays. With Danks 0-2 with a 9.68 ERA in his last two starts in this park, look for Minnesota to improve to 10-1 as a host in this series here tonight.
DUNKEL
Atlanta at Colorado
The Rockies are 14-2 in their last 16 games against teams with a losing record and look to take advantage of an Atlanta team that is 0-4 in Derek Lowe's last 4 road starts. Colorado is the pick (-145) according to Dunkel, which has the Rockies favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-145).
Game 951-952: St. Louis at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Carpenter) 15.004; Cubs (Harden) 15.769
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 6
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-135); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+125); N/A
Game 953-954: Pittsburgh at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Duke) 14.614; Philadelphia (Blanton) 15.918
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-160); Under
Game 955-956: Cincinnati at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Arroyo) 12.869; NY Mets (Nieve) 14.151
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-130); Over
Game 957-958: LA Dodgers at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 14.364; Milwaukee (Looper) 15.191
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+130); Over
Game 959-960: Washington at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Olsen) 15.197; Houston (Oswalt) 15.013
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Houston (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+180); Under
Game 961-962: Atlanta at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Lowe) 15.555; Colorado (Jimenez) 15.977
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-145); Over
Game 963-964: Florida at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Nolasco) 15.815; Arizona (Haren) 16.155
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Arizona (-155); 8
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-155); Under
Game 965-966: San Diego at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Banks) 14.658; San Francisco (Sanchez) 14.501
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-155); 9
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+145); Over
Game 967-968: Cleveland at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Lee) 15.066; Detroit (Jackson) 13.907
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+140); Under
Game 969-970: Toronto at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Cecil) 15.153; Baltimore (Berken) 15.456
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-120); 10
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+110); Over
Game 971-972: Kansas City at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Bannister) 14.938; Boston (Lester) 16.244
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-240); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-240); Over
Game 973-974: Oakland at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Mazzaro) 15.068; Tampa Bay (Niemann) 16.560
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-165); Under
Game 975-976: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 16.124; Minnesota (Blackburn) 15.020
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+120); Over
Game 977-978: NY Yankees at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Chamberlain) 16.544; LA Angels (Saunders) 15.596
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-125); Under
Game 979-980: Texas at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Feldman) 16.484; Seattle (Morrow) 15.591
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-125); Over
WNBA
San Antonio at Minnesota
The Silvers Stars look to take advantage of a Minnesota team that is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games against the Western Conference. San Antonio is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Lynx favored by just 2. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+3 1/2).
Game 601-602: San Antonio at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 107.901; Minnesota 109.815
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 2; 154 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 3 1/2; 156
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+3 1/2); Under
Game 603-604: Indiana at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 115.434; Chicago 108.368
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 7; 137 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 4; 140
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-4); Under
CFL
Calgary at Winnipeg
The Stampeders look to bounce back from their Week One defeat and build on their 7-1 record in their last 8 games following a SU loss. Calgary is the pick (-5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Stampeders favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-5 1/2).
Game 403-404: Calgary at Winnipeg
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 115.609; Winnipeg 107.933
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 7 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Calgary by 5 1/2; 52
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-5 1/2); Under
Game 405-406: Hamilton at BC
Dunkel Ratings: Hamilton 101.622; BC 111.780
Dunkel Line: BC by 10; 57
Vegas Line: BC by 13; 50
Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (+13); Over
Tom Freese
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Colorado Rockies at Florida Marlins
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Florida starter Ricky Nolasco has 27 strikeouts and 3 walks in his last 3 starts. Florida is 6-2-1 vs. NL West teams. The Marlins are 4-0 UNDER in the last 4 starts made by Nolasco and they are 6-1 UNDER in Game 2 of a series. Arizona starter Dan Haren has 23 strikeouts and 2 walks in his last 3 starts. Arizona is 6-2 UNDER in his last 8 home starts. The Diamondbacks are 4-1 UNDER in game 2 of a series and they are 9-3-3 UNDER their last 15 meetings with the Marlins. PLAY ON 'UNDER' (Haren vs. Nolasco)
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Play on: UNDER
Tony George
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Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets
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Catching the Reds on back to back road series here as they lost a series to Philly, including a blown lead in Thursday Nights loss, where their bullpen failed them again. This is also a play against once ace hurler Bronson Arroyo who has lost all 3 games by being lit up by opponents, including a 2.71 WHIP and an ERA over 10! Without a solid bullpen, and an angry group of Mets who just lost a home series to the Dodgers, I like the Mets tonight. The Mets start, Nieve tonight boasts an ERA of 2.73, and the Mets available bullpen in their last 3 games has managed a 2.91 ERA. Good support and solid bats at home, off a bad loss last night, and after losing 7 out of their last 10 games, the Mets are do or die to open this series at home tonight.
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Play Mets
Matt Fargo
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Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins
Prediction: Chicago White Sox
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The White Sox send John Danks to the hill and he is in the midst of a great run right now. He has put together five straight quality starts and has gone at least seven innings in each his numbers on the road are not horrible. He has a 4.21 ERA in eight starts but Chicago is a solid 6-2 in those games and that is the bottom line. Nick Blackburn has been just as solid and pitching at home has been a cash cow for backers but this is one team that he has faced that is difficult to grab wins. The Twins are just 2-4 in his last six starts against the White Sox and they are 4-10 in his last 14 starts against a team with a winning record. 3* Chicago White Sox
Jimmy The Moose
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Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets
Prediction: Over
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The Reds have played the over in 3 of their last 4 road games. The over is 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 4-1-1 in Arroyo's last 6 starts. In his last 5 starts as a dog the over is 4-0-1. In his last 14 starts with 4-days rest between action the over is 9-3-2. The Mets bats will get to him tonight. He comes into this one with an ERA of 10.29 over his last 3 starts. The Mets have played the over in 2 of Nieve's last 3 starts. The over is 7-3 in the Mets last 10 series openers. Play the over.
MTi Sports
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Washington Nationals at Houston Astros
Prediction: Houston Astros
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The Nationals are 0-17 since May 07, 2008 as a 140+ dog after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits and the Astros are 10-0 are when Roy Oswalt starts as a 140+ favorite when their starter went <4 innings yesterday. Consider taking the Astros.
Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on NY Mets -120
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I know the Mets are missing some key bats, but I like their chances against Bronson Arroyo and the Reds tonight. Arroyo has been awful, going 0-3 over his last 3 starts with an ERA if 10.29 and a WHIP of 2.714. The Mets send Fernando Nieve to the hill and I count on him to continue his brilliance at home. Nieve is 2-0 at home this season with an ERA of 0.75 and a WHIP of 1.083. The Reds are 0-6 in Arroyo's last 6 starts as an underdog. The Reds are also just 1-4 in their last 5 meetings in New York and the Mets are 27-9 in their last 36 home games vs. a team with a losing record. I'll take the Mets at home tonight.
Jeff Benton
St. Louis -135 at CHI. CUBS
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Tough free-play loss with the Rangers on Thursday. I’ll bounce back Friday by turning to afternoon action in the Friendly Confines and backing the Cardinals against the Cubs.
More than anything, this play is about St. Louis ace Chris Carpenter. Get a load of some of these numbers: Carpenter is 6-3 with a 2.32 ERA overall, 3-2 with a 2.26 ERA on the road, 3-1 with a 1.23 ERA in day games and he has produced eight quality starts in his last nine trips to the mound. Oh, and he’s 8-3 with a 2.93 ERA in 15 career starts against the Cubs, including a 2-1 home win back on May 20. And he’s given up two earned runs or fewer in four of his last six starts in Wrigley Field.
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Now take a look at some numbers from Cubs starter Rich Harden. He’s 5-5 with a 5.35 ERA overall, 2-4 with a 7.65 ERA at Wrigley and 1-4 with a 7.41 ERA in eight daytime outings, including Saturday’s ugly 11-2 loss to the Brewers in which Harden surrendered seven runs on eight hits in just two innings of work!
Lastly, the Cubs are once again struggling to score runs. They managed single runs in home losses to the Braves on Tuesday and Wednesday, and they’ve score two runs or fewer in four of their last six games and five of their last nine. Taking it a step further, going back to May 19 – the start of a three-game series in St. Louis when they get swept by scores of 3-0, 2-1 and 3-1 – the Cubs have produced three runs or fewer in 26 of their last 46 games.
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Bottom line: This weak Chicago offense isn’t hitting Carpenter today, nor is Harden going to contain Pujols and the St. Louis sluggers. Lay the chalk with the visitors, who are 5-1 in the last six series meetings with Chicago and 80-34 in Carpenter’s last 114 starts, including 39-16 in his last 55 outings against N.L. Central foes.
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7♦ ST. LOUIS
Dominic Fazzini
Washington at HOUSTON
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The Dodgers came through easily against the Mets in my complimentary play Thursday. Time to make it two straight as we go with Houston to roll over Washington today!
Astros ace Roy Oswalt (5-4, 3.81 ERA) is starting to look like his old self.
The two-time 20-game winner is 3-1 with a 2.13 ERA over his last five starts. The right-hander allowed one run on three hits in eight innings Sunday at San Francisco in his last outing.
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I don’t see him having many problems today against the Nationals. Oswalt is 3-1 with a 2.97 ERA in 11 career games (nine starts) vs. Washington.
Nationals left-hander Scott Olsen (2-4, 6.04) came within one out of his first career complete game Sunday against Atlanta, allowing three runs on eight hits in Washington’s 5-3 victory.
That said, Olsen has been horrible on the road this season, going 1-3 with a 6.68 ERA in six starts.
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Opposing batters are hitting .315 (74-for-235) with nine homers vs. Olsen this season, and right-handers are hitting .322 (59-for-183) with six homers against him.
With Houston’s lineup being stacked with right-handed bats, Olsen might not last too long in this one. And with Oswalt on the mound for the Astros, it might be a quiet night for the Nationals’ lineup. Go with the Astros on the run line in this one.
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3♦ HOUSTON -1 1/2