Karl Garrett
Atlanta +125 at COLORADO
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For Friday night, it is sure easy to make a case for the Colorado Rockies these days, but tonight I will jump on the Derek Lowe bandwagon, and look for the underdog Braves to pull out the win at Coors Field.
Atlanta has been playing competitive ball, and probably should have won last night's game. Lowe has had recent struggles, but his numbers are solid against the Rockies, as the righty has allowed just 4 earned runs his last 22 innings of work against Colorado for a 2-1 mark.
Ubaldo Jimenez has been in a rut, at 0-2 his last 3 starts, with 10 earned allowed in 20 frames of work.
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Colorado's win streak is at 4 in a row, but tonight it gets snapped.
G-Man on the underdog Bravos!
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1♦ ATLANTA
Chris Jordan
Florida at ARIZONA
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The Snakes rolled into this series on an under run of 6-2 in their previous eight, while the Marlins came in toting a 4-1 mark with the low number. And tonight there’s going to be a pitching showdown tonight in the desert, as Ricky Nolasco and Dan Haren will put on a show at Chase Field.
Though Nolasco has seen five of seven road totals go over the posted number, he comes in winning his fourth straight start his last time out, throwing eight shutout innings against the Pirates. It was the second straight eight-inning performance for Nolasco, as he continues to pitch well since returning to the big leagues. Over his past four starts, the right-hander has posted a 0.96 ERA and struck out 32 batters over 28 innings. In his last trip to the hill Nolasco struck out 12 - second most in a game for his career. In his last three starts against the Diamondbacks, Nolasco is 3-0 and has allowed a mere four earned runs over 22 innings of work in those outings.
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With Haren, I've got an All-Star hurler who has been consistently outstanding in 2009. Of his 17 starts, 16 have been quality, in which he’s tossed at least six innings and given up three or fewer runs allowed. He hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in a start since May 23, a span of eight starts. Overall, Haren has allowed more than two earned runs just three times this year and comes in off a solid start versus the Rockies, allowing three runs (only one earned) over seven frames. He has a 1.95 ERA at Chase Field, where six of his eight home totals have stayed low.
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This one stays low tonight.
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2♦ UNDER
Bobby Maxwell
Cleveland +140 at DETROIT
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Tonight's FREE play comes in the American League as I play the plus-money Indians on the road in Detroit.
This is damn good value tonight on the Indians as they have Cy Young winner Cliff Lee (4-8, 3.45 ERA) on the mound against the Tigers. I'll take my chances with him against Detroit's Edwin Jackson (6-4, 2.59).
Neither team has been tearing it up lately, with the Tribe losing three of its last five, same as the Tigers. Cleveland did put it together Thursday for a 10-8 win in Chicago.
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Lee has held the opposition to three earned runs or less in eight of his last 10 outings, including Sunday when he allowd three runs in six inning to the A's, but his offense couldn't get anything going in the 5-2 loss. In his last three road outings he's allowed six runs in 22 innings. And against these Tigers, he gave up one run in eight innings back on May 8 but lost 1-0, five days after giving up just three runs in seven innings of a 3-1 loss to the Tigers. Two tough-luck outings for him.
Jackson allowed three runs in 6.1 innings in Minnesota last Saturday and lost 4-3. He shut down Cleveland on May 9 in a 4-0 win, but as a starter for the Rays in 2007 he lost three times to the Tribe.
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Cleveland is 4-1 in its last five Friday games, and the Tigers are just 1-4 when Jackson faces teams from the A.L. Central. I like Lee and I'm going with the Indians in this plus-money situation.
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3♦ CLEVELAND
Sports Gambling Hotline
NY Yankees -115 at LA ANGELS
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For Friday night, we back the Yankees as the small road favorite.
True, New York has struggled in the past playing at the Big "A", but they do bring a 3 game winning streak into Anaheim, and they have also won 6 of their last 7 overall.
The Yankees also took 2 of the first 3 in this year's season series with the Halos, and they get to swing against a pitcher that has looked bad his last two trips to the hill. Joe Saunders is 0-1 over his last pair of starts, and he has allowed 13 runs in just 9 innings of work.
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Joba Chamberlain has been "lights out" on the road this year, going 4-0 with an ERA of 2.74.
The Angels have lost their last pair, and will lose again tonight to make it 3 straight setbacks in a row.
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Play on the Pinstripers to take the weekend opener.
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3♦ NY YANKEES
Matt Rivers
For Friday take the Yankees out West.
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Love it or hate it Arod and the Yankees are playing some darn good ball right now. To go into Minnesota and sweep a Twins team that always performs well in the Metrodome was extremely impressive.
Joe Girardi's club has really come into its own right unlike the Angels who definitely had a good month of June but after watching Vlad Guerrero go down and losing the final two games at home to Texas I am of the belief that Mike Scioscia's team is just not that good this season. Brian Fuentes does have a lot of saves but he has also been very mediocre overall as he has blown a bunch of saves. This bullpen is not what it used to be and the offense, as always, is not all that powerful and has to rely on small ball and especially if Guerrero is not healthy.
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Joba Chamberlain is very good. He has been getting hit a bit and therefore his numbers are not all that. But all in all right now the Yankee righty is better than a guy in Joe Saunders who just got pounded in his last two starts allowing 13 earned runs in 13 innings of work.
Anaheim has always been a House of Horrors for these New Yorkers but all in all it's still just a bit too cheap here to pass up on the red hot Bronx Bombers.
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2♦ Yankees
Tony Weston
Today's Selection
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We’re headed out to Wrigley where we’re taking the Cubs at home against NL Central rival St. Louis.
The Cubs come into today’s game having won 5 of their last 8 games overall and 7 of their last 10 at home.
Now they battle a Cardinals team that’s only playing .500 ball its last 8 games on the road, having gone 4-4 away from St. Louis. Not only that, but when playing in Chicago the Cardinals have had their share of struggles.
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Going back to last season, the Cubs are just 1-4 their last 5 in the Windy City. Also, St. Louis has picked up just one win in Chicago over Chris Carpenter’s last 5 starts at the Cubs.
On the other side, the Cubs are 7-4 in scheduled starter Rich Harden’s last 11 starts and have won 9 of Harden’s last 12 starts against the NL Central. Also, in Harden’s only appearance against the Cards this season, he allowed only 2 earned runs in 6 innings of work as Chicago cruised to a 10-3 win.
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The Cubs will do it again with Harden on the mound as they take it to their NL Central rival. Take Chicago at home in this matinee.
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3♦ CUBS
VEGAS EXPERTS
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Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies
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The Phillies have won five of their last six home games against Pittsburgh. Phillies starter Joe Blanton pitched well in his lone start against the Pirates as he went seven scoreless innings on one hit. His counterpart Zach Duke has a 1-15 TSR as a road underdog of $1.25 to $1.50 and 2-13 TSR when pitching on Friday. The Phillies are in a great spot here as they are 25-7 when playing as a home favorite of $1.50 to $1.75. Go with the Phillies.
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Play on: Philadelphia
Vernon Croy
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Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Texas Rangers
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The Rangers are 5-1 in their last 6 games against the Mariners and they have won 9 of their last 10 games played on Friday. Brandon Morrow (0-3, 5.05) is coming off of his longest start and the Mariners are just 1-4 in his last 5 starts. The Mariners are 0-5 in Morrow's last 5 starts as an underdog and the Rangers are 6-1 in Scott Feldman's (7-2, 3.91 ERA) last 7 starts on the road. The Rangers have won 7 of their last 9 games and they are 21-7 in their last 28 games against an AL West division opponent. Feldman has allowed just 6 hits or less in each of his last 3 starts and he allowed just 4 hits in his last outing against the Mariners back on May.12. Take the Texas Rangers Friday Night.
LT Profits
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies
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Zach Duke of the Pittsburgh Pirates has finally regained the fine form he displayed as a rookie this season, while Joe Blanton has been on a nice role for the Philadelphia Phillies, so look to go Under at Citizens Bank Park Friday night.
Duke has been a disappointment the last couple of seasons, but he has matured nicely this season, going 8-7 while pitching for a losing team with a nice 3.20 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 118 innings. He has reeled off five consecutive Quality Starts and owns eight such starts in his last nine outings. Duke is facing a Phillies lineup that is batting a paltry .238 vs. left-handed pitchers here at home over this entire season.
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Meanwhile, Blanton has turned things around nicely after a poor starts to this season. He has seven Quality Starts in his last eight appearances, and he allowed only four runs in the lone non-quality effort. He was downright dominant in his only start vs. the Pirates last season, allowing only one hit in seven scoreless innings, and he is catching a Pittsburgh team that has a .219 team batting average over the last 10 games.
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Finally, the Under is 19-7-2 in the last 28 Pittsburgh games overall and 6-2 in the last eight Philadelphia games, and based on this matchup, look for both streaks to get extended here.
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Pick: Pirates/Phillies Under 9
Freddy Wills
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Washington Nationals vs. Houston Astros
Play: Houston Astros -1.5
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78.8% of the Nationals league high 33 road losses have come by more than 1 run. They will face the Astros who are starting to put it together a bit here with Roy Oswalt carrying a 2.13 ERA over his last 5 starts. Four of those 5 starts have come on the road so I believe he wants to show the home crowd what he has been up to after starting hte season slow. Olsen has a 6.68ERA on the road this year and faced the Astros at home earlier giving up 5ER in 5IP. Expect much of the same for Olsen. He's pitched well in his 2 starts off the DL but I think he has a let down here today facing the Astros who are hitting Lefties hard .318 avg L5. The Nationals bullpen has been awful 5.84 and I expect them to see a lot of action here today. Worth Noting: Nationals 10-41 L51 as a road dog. They are 9-48 Last 57 vs. RH starter. Astros are 8-2 last 10 as favorites and they are 41-14 last 57 when Oswalt starts at home vs. a team with a losing record.
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Chicago Cubs +120
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The Cubs are 25-16 at home this season, 9-3 in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning record, 4-1 in their last 5 home games against the Cards. In other words, a hungry Cubs team looking to bounce back from back-to-back home losses to the Braves is showing excellent value at this price this afternoon. Expect to see Harden's best start of the season today as he bounces back from his worst. The Cubs are 9-4 in Harden's last 13 home starts, 9-3 in his last 12 starts vs. National League Central, 5-0 in his last 5 starts in game 1 of a series. The Cards send their ace Chris Carpenter to the mound, but he hasn't been on top of his game; just 1-2 with a 4.74 ERA over his last 3 starts. Plus, the Cardinals are 1-4 in Carpenter's last 5 road starts vs. Cubs and just 3-7 in his last 10 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. We'll back the Cubs for a unit showing solid value this afternoon.
Jim Feist
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Marlins at D-Backs
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You want a pair of aces on the hill? Florida starter Ricky Nolasco may be 6-6 on the year, but his last three starts: 3-0 with a 0.78 ERA! The kid has been smoking, fanning 27 in 23 innings with only 3 walks. He faces a terrible offensive team in Arizona. The Diamondbacks have their ace going in Dan Haren, who has a 1.80 ERA his last three starts. Look for dueling goose eggs in the desert!
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Play the Marlins/Diamondbacks! Under the total.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
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CLE (+130) vs DET
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The Tigers are atop the Central with a 2 1/2-game lead on the White Sox. However, manager Jim Leyland is wary of his team looking ahead to next weeks four-day break for the All-Star game. "When you grind like this," Leyland told the teams official Web site, "you look so forward to the break that you have to make sure you dont get to the break before you get there. The mental toughness in this game is a lot more important than people think. Theres a mental toughness that goes with surviving this stuff." I expect a 'letdown' here and believe there's good value on the visiting squad. Cliff Lee (4-8, 3.45) hopes for better run support when he takes the mound for Cleveland. The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner is 0-2 with a 2.40 ERA in two starts against Detroit this season, getting just one total run of support. He watched Clevelands bats produce just two hits in a 1-0 loss on May 8, as he limited the Tigers to one run and seven hits in eight innings/expect a similar performance today. Look for CLEVELAND to improve to 5-3 in the month of July!
DAVE COKIN
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TORONTO BLUE JAYS / BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Take BALTIMORE ORIOLES
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The Blue Jays appear to be toast at this point. Management has sent the message they don't think the team can win and are ready to break them up, and the result is a team that's got very little focus right now. The Orioles have been capable at home and I like their chances of grabbing a win tonight.
CT Sports Picks
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TEXAS @ SEATTLE
Pick: TEX -120
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Texas looks to have fixed there problems that they had in mid June. They have won 7 of last 10 games including sweeping TB and winning 4 of 6 over LAA. Not a small task as both team had been playing very well before they played. Big advantage to TEX today as they have much better starting pitching today. Feldman toes the rubber today looking for his third win in a row. His last two wins he has went 12 innings and only allowed 4 runs. On the other hand SEA has had to put reliever Morrow in the starting lineup again today. He has not done well in recent starts allowing over a 5.5 ERA!! The bigger problem though for SEA has come at the plate where they have averaged just under 4 runs a game in the last 10 games. Stark contrast to TEX who has exploded lately scoring over 5.5 runs per game in last 10. Pretty easy win here for TEX!! TEX -120