Jr Tipps
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BLUE JAYS vs. ORIOLES
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Baltimore (38-47) scored all of its runs in the ninth inning Wednesday, rallying for a 5-3 win at Seattle a day after the Orioles plated six runs in the seventh. The Orioles have lost three of their last four at home and face the Blue Jays (43-44). The Orioles will turn to rookie Jason Berken (1-5, 6.25 ERA) who is looking to stop a five-game losing streak. The right-hander is 0-5 with a 6.62 ERA in his last seven trips to the mound and he only lasted four innings Saturday, giving up three runs and seven hits. The Blue Jays will have third baseman Scott Rolen, the team leader with a .330 average back in the lineup after he was rested Thursday.Rolen is on a career-high 25-game hitting streak during which he has a .390 average (41 for 105) with three homers and 16 RBIs. Rookie Brett Cecil (2-1, 6.23) will get his first start against the Orioles after getting roughed up during Sunday's 10-8 loss at Yankee Stadium. The 23-year-old left-hander was tagged for seven runs and nine hits with five walks in 3 2-3 innings. He's 0-0 with a 9.42 ERA in his last four games since being recalled from Triple-A Las Vegas on June 20th. Two struggling rookie pitchers will mean an early bullpen for both teams. Look for both these offenses to score early and often.
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TAKE OVER 10
The Spread
St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs, 2:20PM ET
St. Louis is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing Chi Cubs
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing Chi Cubs
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Chi Cubs's last 11 games
Chi Cubs are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games at home
Pick: St. Louis
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins, 8:10PM ET
Chi White Sox are 7-2 SU in their last 9 games on the road
Chi White Sox are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games
Minnesota is 9-1 SU in their last 10 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox
Pick: Minnesota
New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels, 10:05PM ET
NY Yankees are 3-6 SU in their last 9 games when playing LA Angels
The total has gone OVER in 13 of NY Yankees's last 17 games when playing LA Angels
LA Angels are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Angels's last 5 games at home
Pick: LA Angels
Nelly
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Oakland + over Tampa Bay
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Coming off a big series sweep at home against Toronto including an extra-innings game and two one run wins the Rays could face a letdown with Oakland coming to town. The A's offense has improved considerably and is batting .289 over the last ten games compared with a just a .235 team average for the Rays in that span. This will be the third city on a tough road trip for Oakland but Oakland has faced Jeff Niemann before and should find ways to put runs on the board. Niemann has been inconsistent although successful for the Rays as he often exits games early with high pitch counts. Niemann's ERA is higher at home and his season WHIP of 1.43 suggests he has been somewhat fortunate to have such a solid record. He beat the A's earlier this season but allowed eight hits in that game. Vin Mazzaro is a highly regarded prospect that has posted very respectable numbers to start his career. Mazzaro has allowed three or fewer runs in five of his seven starts and he has an over 2:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Pitching on the road has not been a problem for Mazzaro and he should have success against a Tampa lineup that has never faced him. Oakland has been hitting better and should have an edge on the mound creating an attractive underdog play for Friday night in a clear letdown spot for the Rays after beating Roy Halladay on Thursday.
The Sports Investing Professional
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Today I'm coming right back with what I think is the biggest mismatch at the best price. There are some other games that appear to be mismatched but with Washington / Houston we've got the worst road team against what could be argued as the N.L's hottest pitcher. In addition, Houston's bats have come to life and no staff better than Washington to keep them hot! We're going for a double dip on this one....
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Houston Astros -180
Houston Astros -1.5
Dave Price
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1 Unit on Milwaukee Brewers +125
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The Brewers have been struggling of late, but I like their bats in this bounce back spot against the Dodgers' Billingsley who has had some rough outings here recently. The Dodgers have lost 2 of his last 3 starts, in which he has posted an ERA of 4.57. Plus, the Dodgers are 0-4 in Billingsley's last 4 Friday starts. Looper has been dealing for the Brew Crew as Milwaukee is 7-3 in his 10 home starts this season. And they have won each of his last 3 starts and he has posted an ERA of 2.95 in those games. In fact, the Brewers are 5-0 in Looper's last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record and 4-1 in his last 5 starts as an underdog. Bet the Beer Makers.
Scott Delaney
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Chad Billingsley is now 0-1 in his last four starts, despite pitching well enough to win in three of those starts. He comes in after letting a fourth chance at a 10th victory slip away when he took a two-hitter into the ninth inning in San Diego. Unfortunately for him, by the time fellow All-Star hurler Jonathan Broxton got the third out, a five-run lead had been blown.
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But with Los Angeles bringing baseball’s best record into Milwaukee, where it makes its last stop on a nine-game tour before the Midsummer Classic, I don’t think getting a win here will be an issue. The Dodgers are 4-2 on this excursion after crushing the Mets 11-2 last night, and brings into this series win streaks of 5-0 in series openers, 5-1 against right-handed starters and 4-1 on the road against teams with a winning record.
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More importantly, and even more relevant, against the Brewers the Dodgers hold a 35-17 advantage the last 52 meetings. And with Billingsley toting a 2-0 lifetime mark against Milwaukee, not to mention a 3-1 mark on the road with a 2.92 ERA, I love our chances tonight.
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2♦ L.A. DODGERS
GoodFella
BOS -1.5 (-120) vs KAN
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Lester & Bannister both must start or no action-
Red Sox should be very focused to bounce back from the LOSS to Kansas City last night-
Lester has a 1.83 ERA in his last 3 starts, 19 2/3 IP, 5 BB, 23 K's. Lester also has a sick 1.64 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in three career starts against KC-
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Lester vs KC at Fenway, two starts, 17 IP, ONE hit, and NO runs-
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Bannister in 7 road starts this season: 5.02 ERA and 1.54 WHIP-
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Bannister in 3 carrer starts vs Red Sox: 8.22 ERA and 1.70 WHIP....and his 2 starts at Fenway have NOT been pretty...as he's allowed 11 runs and 17 hits in just 11 1/3 IP-
GREG SHAKER
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Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox
Play: RedSox -1.5
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Yes I know, it is the dreaded runline play and I just don't play these unless the conditions are right. I think that they are for tonight's contest. How often do the RredSox lose two straight games at home? How often would they do so to the KC Royals? Not very often and there are plenty of reasons to believe that they will bounceback very strong this evening. Surely we all remember May 18th 2008. It was the last time that Lester faced these Royals. It was a NO-HITTER! He has had other quality outings throwing at this team and he is smoking right now. He is 4-1 with a 1.74 ERA in his last seven starts, striking out 61 in 46 2/3 innings. He does know how to be the prohibitive favorite and especially right here at Fenway where his team is 9-0 the last 9 times he has thrown as a -200 favorite or higher. Speaking of Fenway, Bannister does not like this park at all. He has thrown 11.1 Innings here, allowing 11 runs, and 4 Dingers. He has yet to be the RedSox and he will be facing a team that should be breathing smoke following their less than stellar performance last night. Even with the win last night, KC remains a poor road proposition, they have a very poor bullpen and we do not. We are the RedSox. We are pissed! We will hit, we will field, we will spit. We will win and we will win going away. We are the RedSox.
Rocketman
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Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota
Play: Minnesota
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Two fairly evenly matched teams here tonight as the White Sox are 44-41 on the season and the Twins come in with a 43-43 record this year. Minnesota is 10-3 when playing on Friday this year. Nick Blackburn has been impressive this year for the Twins with 7-4 overall record and a 2.94 ERA this season. He is a perfect 4-0 with a 2.32 ERA at home this year and has a 2.35 ERA his last 3 starts. Minnesota is 13-5 at home vs Chicago White Sox the past 3 years. We'll recommend a small play on Minnesota tonight!
DAVE MALINSKY
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Cincinnati Reds @ New York Mets
PICK: Over 8.5
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Struggling starters and tired bullpens are hardly the recipe for a pitcher’s duel, and that is why we were so surprised to find the 9’s left open as “win” numbers for this one. In a game in which there will be a vulnerable pitcher on the mound in every inning except for perhaps the 9th, asking each team to scratch out four runs does not make us beggars.
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We are not sure that Bronson Arroyo should be pitching right now. A bout with carpal tunnel syndrome has turned his season into a mess, and the Reds have already stated the off-season surgery is in the cards. So why wait? Although cortisone shots have eased the pain a bit his game is a disaster right now, with an 0-3/10.29 over his last three starts that has actually been even worse than those baseline numbers. He allowed six home runs in only 14 innings in that span, with far more walks (9) than strikeouts (6), and a stratospheric 2.71 WHIP does not fully translate to the ERA column because there were a couple of unearned tallies that do not show up. There just is not any reason to believe that he turns around here, and with the Cincinnati starters only lasting 22 innings over the last five games a tired bullpen may reach overload. This will also be the second look for the Mets at him this season, and Arroyo has worked to an awful 8.85 over four second-look outings so far.
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Fernando Nieve’s 3-2/2.73 helps to bring a low price here but that is not who he is. Like many call-ups he had an adrenaline rush through a few starts, which led to a couple of solid performances, but now that has worn off, and opposing teams also have scouting reports. As such he has lasted only nine innings over his last two starts, allowing six runs on 17 hits, with an ugly ratio of seven walks vs. only four strikeouts, and you can see part of where this bargain line comes from in that distribution – if you allow 17 hits and seven walks over nine frames, but only six runs scored, you have cashed a lottery ticket. Nieve is not a candidate to go deeply into a game even when his limited stuff is on, and that is bad news for the Met bullpen, after the starters could only generate 12 of the 27 innings in the series vs. the Dodgers.
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We do not need an offensive explosion to win this; if each team can get four runners around it is mission accomplished. There will be ample opportunities for that to happen in this one.
Yankee Capper
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New York Mets -110
Atlanta Braves +135
Houston Astros -180
San Francisco Giants -150
Game Time Sports Advisors
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New York Yankees vs. LAA Angels
Play: Over 9.5
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We are going over the total tonight. These two clubs just flat out hit when they play each other. 10 of the last 13 in LA. The over is 13-4 the last 17 meetings. Saunders has gone over in 7 straight including 4 straight at home. Angels 11-4-1 going over the total last 16 vs righties. LAAA has gone over in 4 of their last 5. Joba has gone over in 4 of his last 5, and the team has gone over in 5 of their last 6. OVER
Frank Jordan
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Kansas City Royals vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Kansas City Royals
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Kansas City pulled off a nice come from behind win Thursday night, but tonight things will be tougher as they face Jon Lester. Lester is 7-6 with an era over 4, but at home he is 3-3 with two comeplete games. Kansas City is sending Brian Bannister who is 6-6 with an era under 4 and is coming off a win against Chicago. In this one look for a close game with Kansas City once again coming out ontop in the end. Play Kansas City
John Ryan
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Dodgers as they travel to face the Brewers set to start at 8:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone an amazing 51-12 making 33.4 units since 2003. Play on all favorites with a money line of -110 or higher and with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.00 the last 10 games facing an opponent after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 5 or more earned runs. Milwaukee not in a good role for this game noting they are just s 8-15 (-14.5 Units) against the money line in home games versus good fielding teams averaging <=0.6 errors/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons; 4-10 (-9.9 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons; 4-17 (-15.8 Units) against the money line versus teams outscoring opponent by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Take the Dodgers.
LARRY NESS
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Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies
PICK: Colorado Rockies
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The Rockies are 28-11 under Jim Tracy, winning 26 of their last 33, including 13-3 here at Coors Field after last night's 7-6 win over the Braves. Tonight's pitching matchup features Derek Lowe and Ubaldo Jimenez. Lowe is 7-7 with a 4.56 ERA on the season but hasn't won since June 9, going 0-4 with an 8.61 ERA in his last five starts (Atlanta is 1-4). Jimenez is winless in his last three starts (he's 0-2 and the team 0-3) but this right-hander has pitched into the 7th inning each time out. That's what we've come to expect from him. He was 12-12 last year with a respectable 3.99 ERA, allowing fewer hits (182) than innings pitched (198.2). He's just 6-8 this year but again has posted a solid ERA (3.86), allowing 101 hits in 109.2 innings. The Rockies are only 6-11 in his 2009 starts but that breaks down 2-8 on the road and 4-3 at home. Considering Atlanta' poor efforts vs right-handed starters this year (24-31 while averaging 3.5 RPG), I expect the Rockies to continue their winning ways, taking Jimenez over a struggling Lowe.