Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday July, 13

Hollywood Sports

Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee (40-45) has won 6 of their last 8 home games versus teams with a winning record. They send out Grienke who is looking for a better start to his second half then how his first half ended in Houston where he was ejected after only 3 innings of work after spiking the baseball in the bottom of the 4th after a close play at first base did not go his way. That game was last Sunday which means Greinke is pitching on four days of rest for this contest -- and the Brewers have won 5 of their last 7 games when Greinke was pitching with four days of rest. For the season, Greinke owns a 9-3 record along with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. Greinke has been much tougher at home during his career and this year has been no exception given his 1.89 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and .181 opponent's batting average as opposed to his 4.41 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and .310 opponent's batting average when on the road. Milwaukee has won a decisive 23-1 home games with Greinke on the mound. The Brewers have also won 4 straight games with Greinke facing off against a team with a winning record. He faces off against McDonald who is enjoying a very good season himself with his identical 9-3 record along with a 2.37 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP this year. But while the right-hander has a 1.69 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and .182 opponent's batting average at home, these numbers rise to a 3.54 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and .217 opponent's batting average when on the road. Milwaukee has won 4 of their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers. And while the Pirates are enjoying their first good season in, literally, decades, this is a franchise that has 120 of their last 167 road games against teams with a winning record at home -- and the Brewers are 22-21 at home this season. Pittsburgh has also lost a whopping 44 of their last 52 games in Milwaukee against their NL Central rival. Take the Brewers in the money line in this one while listing both starting pitchers.

Matt Fargo

St Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Cincinnati Reds

The Reds closed the first half of the season with a decent 6-5 roadtrip that included a three-game sweep at San Diego to end it. Cincinnati was in first place in the National League Central for most of it but the Pirates were able to gain control and hang on however the Reds find themselves only a game back heading into the weekend. Cincinnati heads home where it is 23-16 on the season and it has thrived in this situation, going a perfect 9-0 in its last nine home games against teams with a winning road record. St. Louis is right in the mix as well as it trails Pittsburgh by just 2.5 games thanks to a strong ending to its homestand to close the first half as it went 6-2 in its last eight games. The Cardinals have been good on the road but inconsistent as they are 18-19 on the highway following a 5-1 start. The pitching has been outstanding of late but they could be in for some trouble here and going back prior to the end of their homestand, the Cardinals are 7-17 in their last 24 games against teams with a winning record. Mat Latos was brought over from San Diego to strengthen the rotation and it didn't start that way as he posted an 8.22 ERA in his first three starts but he has been much better since then. In his last 14 starts, he has put up a 3.60 ERA and he ended the first half on a sizzling run, going 2-0 with a 0.72 ERA and 0.56 WHIP in three starts. All of those were quality and he posted a 28:4 K:BB ratio. He has a three-game quality start run at home and the Reds are 5-0 in his last five home starts. It has not been a very good season for Adam Wainwright. After missing all of 2011 because of arm surgery, he has a 4.56 ERA and 1.35 WHIP covering 17 starts. That ERA is over two runs higher than it was during his entire 2010 season so things just aren't right. He has posted quality outings in four of his last five starts but three of those were at home. On the road, only three of his seven starts have been quality efforts and the Cardinals are 2-9 in his last 11 road starts against teams with a winning record.

Rob Vinciletti

Oakland Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins

The Twins fit a nice System here tonight that plays on home favorites off a 1 run road dog loss while scoring 4 or less runs in their last game, vs an opponent like Oakland that comes in off a home dog win. The Twins have won the last 3 in the series here and have F. Liriano on the mound tonight. Liriano has won 6 of his last 8 July home starts and has already shut Oakland down here this season going 6 strong with no runs allowed. Tonight he opposes A. Griffin who has looked good in his limited starts. However this is just his 2nd road start. Oakland has lost 5 of the last 6 vs A.L. Central teams and 7 of the last 8 on the road vs leftys. Look for The Twins to take game one tonight.

Marc Lawrence

NY Mets

Note: The Mets and Braves open a three game series in Atlanta Friday evening where New York sends the born-again arm of Chris Young to the mound against Tim Hudson. Since reclaiming a starting spot in the Mets rotation, Young has cashed two of his three road starts. He is also in strong current KW form with 13 strikeouts and 3 walks in his last three starts. With Hudson's home ERA (5.07) more than three runs worse than his road ERA (1.94) this season, look for Young to improve to 6-1 in his last seven team starts during July here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Mets.

Chris Elliott

Tigers / Orioles Under

The Detroit Tigers (44-42) head to Baltimore Friday evening to take on the Orioles (45-40).

The Tigers will send Doug Fister to the hill with a record of 2-6, 4.75 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. Fister is coming off a 2011 season that saw him go 8-1 with Detroit after being acquired via a trade with the Mariners. He has battled injuries all season but is finally healthy at this point of the season. In his last 10 games, he has been hit and miss with 6 quality starts. Fister was penciled in as the number 2 starter behind Verlander at the start of the season and was projected to win 15-17 games by many experts. I expect Fister to turn it around in the second half of the season beginning at Camden Yards on Friday night!

The Orioles will counter with Jason Hammel and his record of 8-5, 3.47 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Hammel has been excellent for the Orioles after coming over in a trade with Colorado and has quickly risen to the top of the Orioles staff. Look for Hammel to give the Orioles another strong outing and turn it over to the second best bullpen in MLB with a 2.75 ERA.

The Tigers have hit the "Under" 47-38 overall, 32-27 vs. RHP, 25-19 on the road and 46-15 vs teams with winning records.

The Orioles have hit the "Under" 45-38 overall, 36-25 vs. RHP, 18-14 when the total is 9 to 9.5 and 29-21 vs teams with winning records.

In their last 20 games, the Tigers have hit the "Under 12-7-1, the Orioles have hit the "Under" 12-7-1 in their last 20 as well. The total of 9 can be attributed to Fister's struggles this season. Expect a strong outing from Fister as he begins to turn the corner and watch Hammel deliver as he has done most of the season. Take the "Under" to win in this game!

Freddy Wills

Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Chicago White Sox

I can't help but back Jose Quintana the guy was a beast as I faded him in his last road start at Texas one of the best LHP hitting teams. He's now posted a 3-0 record, 0.91 WHIP and a 2.86 ERA over his last three starts, but he's been even better overall and posts a 2.51 ERA on the road this year. He'll go up against the Royals who are ranked 22nd in OPS vs. LHP. Quintana will face a Royals team that is only scoring 2.94 runs per 9 vs. LHP and is 19-39 in their last 58 following an off day. I expect there bats to be a bit rusty/hung over after the break.

While the White Sox swept the Rangers, and then took 2 of 3 from the Jays in impressing fashion. One major change has happened since the acquisition of Kevin Youkilis. They no longer have a weakness vs. LH starters as they were ranked 28th vs. LHP in OPS at one time but they have surged of late to 17th with a .713 OPS. They'll face Bruce Chen who does have good numbers against the White Sox, but once again it will be Kevin Youkilis making the difference as he is 6-16 against Chen while A.J. Pierzynski adds a bit going 11-27 in his career. Chen has also been terrible in July in his career posting a 6.33 ERA, his worst month by far over the last three years combined.

Notable Hot Starters:
C.J. Wilson (2-1, 1.21 WHIP, 2.37 ERA)
Mat Latos (2-1, 0.56 WHIP, 0.72 ERA)
Jordan Zimmermann (2-1, 1.15 WHIP, 1.35 ERA)
Tim Hudson 2-1, 1.10 WHIP, 2.57 ERA)
A.J. Griffin (2-1, 0.72 WHIP, 1.50 ERA)
Franciso Liriano2-1, 0.72 WHIP, 1.50 ERA)

Cold Starter Of The Day:
Though this is not going to be any sort of a sports pick that is backed by our sports monitor we still like to give out the cold pitcher with the best shot at winning because often times there is a lot of value. Today's pitcher is Doug Fister by default. I think he benefited more than any other pitcher by the All Star break. Fister also had an amazing 2nd half last year and we will see if he can replicate it as the Tigers finished strong before the break.

Notable Cold Starters:
Jason Hammel (0-3, 1.80 WHIP, 8.10 ERA)
Justin Masterson (0-3, 1.80 WHIP, 8.10 ERA)
Ricky Romero (0-3, 2.27 WHIP, 10.80 ERA)
Jeremy Hellickson (0-3, 1.95 WHIP, 8.03 ERA)
Bruce Chen (1-2, 1.50 WHIP, 7.31 ERA)
Zach Greinke (2-1, 1.89 WHIP, 9.00 ERA)
Christian Frierich (0-3, 1.61 WHIP, 7.24 ERA)
Derek Holland (2-1, 2.08 WHIP, 9.69 ERA)

Brad Diamond

Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins
Play: Washington Nationals

Here we go with a sweet winner to start the second-half the season. The slumping Marlins have gone down hard recently at 10-21 inside the lines. Further, Miami is 5-15 off a loss and 3-7 after a 7 or more game road swing. And, Miami is just 5-16 playing against winning clubs. Finally, the Marlins have backed hurler Johnson well at home at 7-2, but the Marlins are suffering overall right now. With the Nationals underdog, I’ll take a ticket with the visitor.

Jim Feist

New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves
Pick: Atlanta Braves

The Mets and Braves both had very good first halves of the season. The Mets finished 46-40 and are 4 1/2 games back of the Nationals in the NL East. Meanwhile, the Braves are 46-39 and four back of first place. However, the Braves finished on a hot streak, winning four straight. Chris Young will start for the Mets on Friday. Originally, Dillon Gee was to start today, but a blood clot in his shoulder has moved Young into the start. Young has been consistent, allowing just two or three runs in each of his last six starts this season. Tim Hudson will toe the rubber for the Braves. Hudson used his All-Star break to rest his left ankle, which will eventually have to have surgery to remove a bone spur. Hudson is coming off an excellent start at Philadelphia, allowing just four hits and no runs over seven innings for the win. It was Hudson's third win against just one loss in his last four starts. The Braves and Hudson have been a good combination, and if only his angle doesn't bother him too much then I like them here on Friday.

Dave Cokin

St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds
Pick: Cincinnati Reds

Mat Latos is on a roll for Cincinnati, and Adam Wainwright is still looking for his consistency for the Cardinals. I'll go with the Reds to capture this important series opener.

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. YANKEES -119 over L.A. Angels

Not often are the mighty Yanks underpriced at home but in this case they are because C.J. Wilson leads the AL with a road ERA of 2.01. With an overall ERA of 2.43, Wilson is making a case to become the Angels rotation anchor. Not so fast, as his skills are not even above average. Wilson has 49 walks and 88 K’s in 111 frames. He’s been greatly aided by an 80% strand rate but those walks he issues have a way of crossing the plate in New York. Wilson’s ERA is much lower than it should be, as evidenced by his xERA of 4.34 over the past month. One could argue that the Angels 14-7 (.667) record in the three weeks leading up to the break gives them some value but the Yanks have been playing .667 ball since May. Hiroki Kuroda’s strong skills and GB lean have made him a great fit for the Yankee rotation. He usually gives them a great chance to win but this one is more about wagering against a pitcher (C.J. Wilson) whose stock is far too high. Our Pick N.Y. YANKEES -119 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 1.68)

St. Louis +117 over CINCINNATI

Place little weight on Adam Wainright’s rough outing versus these Reds way back on April 19, as he was still fresh off Tommy John surgery and looking to find his groove. While his surface stats suggest he's still searching for it (4.56 ERA), a second half breakout appears inevitable. Wainright has a 3.18 xERA. He has 98 k’s in 103 innings, a strong 52% groundball profile and he doesn’t get taken yard too often. That groundball profile and the ability to keep the ball in the park is key at Great American Ballpark. Only once in his last six outings has Wainright given up a home run. Not many pitchers have been as sharp or as good as Adam Wainright but he has not been rewarded for his elite skills. Mat Latos’s stock is higher than it’s been in quite some time. He’s 2-0 over his past three starts with a miniscule 0.72 ERA. Latos has near identical SO/BB totals as Wainright (98 K’s and 30 walks in 105 innings). However, his groundball/fly-ball split is just 43%/40% and he’ll be facing a Cardinals team that leads the NL in runs scored on the road, batting average, OPS and a few other notable offensive categories. The Cardinals on the road with Wainright going is just too strong a combination to pass up when being offered a tag. Our Pick St. Louis +117 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.34)

Scott Spreitzer

Padres / Dodgers Under 6.5

Neither team has hit well in the situation they're in tonight and both starting pitchers have turned in strong outings over the first half of the season. First of all, San Diego plates just 3.3 rpg against lefthanders this season (28 games), while the Dodgers average just 3.8 rpg in 32 tries against southpaws. Secondly, both Clayton Richard has not only posted a 1.26 WHIP in 18 starts this season, but he's dominated the Dodgers in his career, posting a 2.62 ERA & 1.15 WHIP in 10 starts. He's faced them three times this season, allowing just 6 earned runs and 16 base runners in 20 innings of work. Current form on the road is outstanding, posting a 1.19 ERA & 0.89 WHIP in his last four. Clayton Kershaw has been tremendous in 10 home starts this season and he has "owned" the Friars with a 2.40 ERA & 1.14 WHIP in 15 lifetime starts against them. The teams are on a head-to-head 4-1 Under run when Kershaw toes the home rubber against the Padres. The Dodgers entered the all-star break on a 5-1 Under run in their last six games, overall. With two strong starting pitchers, (and the Dodgers outstanding bullpen), facing anemic offenses in MLB's 25th ranked stadium in ballpark OPS (.663), I'm playing the Under between the Padres & Dodgers on Friday night.

GoodFella

SF Giants -1.5 -105

I don't normally fire on too many RL Favs, but I do like SF in this spot here tonight, as they trot out Bumgarner who has simply been a beast at AT & T Park (6-1, 1.88 ERA) & a 47/5 K/BB ratio & he takes on the Astros who are dead last in the N.L. vs LH pitching in avg (.210) & .OBA (.276). Houston has already thrown in the towel and are just 1-9 L/10 ballgames and I fully expect Bumgarner to out pitch Lyles for Houston, who has a season WHIP hovering at 1.50. Quite simply a pitching mismatch here IMO & a situation where we have the dominant SP vs a team who simply struggles vs LH pitching. I look for a 5-2 type win out of SF tonight & my money is on the SF GIANTS RL tonight.

Jimmy Boyd

Detroit Tigers -101

The Detroit Tigers are primed for a big second half after playing sub-par up to the All-Star Break. This team has way too much talent not to make a run in the weak AL Central. Sitting at 44-42 right now, I would not be surprised to see this team finish close to 20 games above .500 by season's end. Doug Fister is much better than he gets credit for despite a poor showing over his last three outings. Jason Hammel hasn't been much better of late, going 0-3 with an 8.10 ERA and 1.800 WHIP in his last three starts for the O's. Hammel has posted a 6.61 ERA and 1.960 WHIP in three career starts against Detroit. Baltimore is 17-43 after a loss by 4 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. The Orioles are 2-11 in home games after a loss by 6 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. The Tigers have a lot of momentum, going 5-0 in their last 5 games overall. The Orioles are 1-5 in their last 6 home games. Take Detroit.

Tony Stoffo

D-Backs vs. Cubs
Play: Over

Let's start off the second half of the season with a solid release on the over in this spot as the Diamondbacks and Cubbies meet in a day game at Wrigley field. My main reason for expecting a higher scoring game here is that Ian Kennedy and Paul Maholm are getting the starts here. Kennedy will be on 8 days rest here and is coming off a start against the light hitting Padres where he allowed 5 runs and 10 hits in just 4+ innings pitched. While even though Maholm is coming off od a couple of solid starts- he sure doesn't fool the Diamondback hitters - as he is 0-3 against Arizona with 5.34 ERA. This includes his last start against Arizona on June 23rd where he got hit hard allowing 7 runs and 9 hits in just 3+ innings. The Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Chicago between the Diamondbacks and Cubs. So as you can see the over is the play here.