Bryan Power
Philadelphia vs. Colorado
Pick: Philadelphia
Though the first half was a complete disaster for the Phillies and Cliff Lee, I might as well give them a try here as if they can't beat up on Colorado pitching, then the season is officially lost. The Rockies have the worst pitching staff in baseball, by far, and starting today is Christian Friedrich, who has a 9.62 ERA here at Coors Field.
Lee shockingly has just one win to his credit through 14 starts, but for the most part pitched well during the first half. His lone victory came in his last start before the Break as he tossed eight innings, allowing only two runs with 9 K's, in a 9-2 win over the Mets. Though they have not met yet this season, the Phillies have really had the Rockies number in previous head to head play, taking 12 of 15 meetings, including five of six here in Denver. Lee has never lost to Colorado, going 3-0 against them (1.16 ERA) in the 2009 season.
Friedrich has just been brutal all year and allowed six runs in his last start, his 3rd straight where he failed to make it past the fifth inning. Overall, the team has lost each of his last six starts. As bad as things have been for Philly so far, it's been even worse for Colorado, who are just 18-25 at home this year and 29-60 their last 80 as an underdog of +150 or less.
Lenny Del Genio
MLB: San Diego vs. LA Dodgers
Pick: LA Dodgers
The high line dictates that we release this as a "lower-rated" play, but it's still a recommendation nonetheless. San Diego's offense is the National League's worst (.234 team BA) and they a particularly brutal vs. lefties (3.4 runs per game, .225 BA), going 9-20 (-$1040) overalll. Therefore, taking on Dodgers' ace Clayton Kershaw at Chavez Ravine to start the second half is certainly the least favorable of matchups for them. Kershaw turned in a fine first half for LA, posting a 2.91 ERA in 18 starts and the team is 7-3 when he starts at home. He has an 11-4 TSR all-time vs. the Padres w/ a 2.40 ERA, including a 2-0 TSR already this season. Already Los Angeles has gone 7-2 vs. San Diego this season, including a three-game sweep here at Chavez Ravine. Yes, the first half didn't end well for Dodger Blue, but this series should signal a turnaround.
Dave Essler
SEattle Mariners +1.5 -130
I totally get how people think that Holland will exact a pound of flesh for the drubbing the Mariners gave him in Arlington, but let's not forget that Millwood gets just as pumped to play one of his former teams, the Rangers. And normally, I'd not think about taking Seattle against left-handed starters, but quite frankly Holland is just not that dominant against LHH at all. Home team with this much RLM and the last at bat in a game with a total that's dropping is an auto-bet for me.
Dave Price
Texas Rangers -132
This is a very reasonable price to back the AL West-leading Texas Rangers (52-34) on Friday. Texas left-hander Derek Holland has been at his best on the road this year, going 3-1 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.207 WHIP in five starts away from home. Kevin Millwood has been at his worst at home for the Mariners (36-51), going 1-2 with a 5.29 ERA and 1.441 WHIP in seven starts. The Rangers are 21-7 in Holland's last 28 starts as a favorite. The Mariners are 1-5 in Millwood's last 6 starts as an underdog. Bet the Rangers.
Steve Janus
Cincinnati Reds -119
I'll take my chances on the Reds coming away with a win at home tonight. Cincinnati will send out Matt Latos, who was absolutely on fire heading into the All-Star break. Over his last three starts, Latos went 2-0 with a 0.72 ERA. He has also won 7 straight decisions.
The Cardinals will counter with Adam Wainwright, who has been better of late but still not the same pitcher that we saw back in 2010. Wainwright is just 7-8 with a 4.56 ERA and 1.354 WHIP. He allowed four runs in just five innings of a 3-6 loss at home to Reds earlier this season.
Cincinnati also comes in looking to get back on top the NL Central. With a win and a Pirates loss they will be tied for 1st place. Cincinnati has won three straight and are 23-16 at home this season.
Jack Jones
Los Angeles Angels +120
The Los Angeles Angels are showing great value as an underdog to the New York Yankees in Game 1 of this series Friday. The Angels have been playing great for nearly two months now to get to 48-38. They currently own the wild-card sport in the AL, while also trailing Texas by just four games in the AL West.
Los Angeles starter C.J. Wilson has definitely earned his hefty contract up to this point. The left-hander is 9-5 with a 2.43 ERA and 1.159 WHIP in 18 starts, including 6-2 with a 2.01 ERA and 1.090 WHIP in 11 road outings. He's the better starter in this one as Hiroki Kuroda is 8-7 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.259 WHIP in 17 starts this season for the Yankees.
The Angels are 4-0 in their last 4 games as an underdog. Los Angeles is 5-0 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series. The Angels are 7-0 in Wilson's last 7 road starts. Los Angeles is 8-1 in Wilson's last 9 starts overall. Bet the Angels Friday.
Nelly
Indians / Blue Jays Over
Ricky Romero was supposed to carry the Toronto pitching staff this season but he has struggled, allowing four or more runs in eight of his last nine starts. Romero owns a 5.22 ERA for the season with a 4.58 xFIP and that mark moves to 5.36 over the last month. Romero has walked 58 batters this season for one of the highest walk rates in the AL among regular starters and he has not pitched particularly well at home either. The 'over' is 14-3 in Romero starts this season including 7-1 in his Rogers Centre outings as he is still valued like a high quality pitcher. Justin Masterson had a great month of June but in his final three starts before the break he allowed a combined 14 runs. Masterson has also battled control issues with 47 walks and a worse than 2:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio on the year. Masterson owns a season ERA of 4.40 and while his numbers have been batter since a tough first month of the season he has really struggled away from home, featuring a 5.93 ERA on the season with a 1.51 WHIP. Both teams have had bullpen issues with Cleveland featuring a 4.31 bullpen ERA for the year and Toronto featuring a 4.14 bullpen ERA, climbing to 5.34 over the last ten games. These are impressive offensive teams with Cleveland scoring 6.9 runs per game vs. left-handed pitching over the last ten games and Toronto has scored 6.7 runs per game vs. right-handers in that span. The 'over' has hit in eight of the last ten meetings between these teams and Toronto has been an especially high scoring team at home, averaging over 5.5 runs per game on the season. The Rogers Centre has averaged nearly ten runs per game on the year and the 'over' has had the edge at 23-17 on the season in Toronto.
MLB Predictions
Toronto Blue Jays -124
The Indians enter the second half with a 44-41 record and 20-20 road record, while the Blue Jays sit at .500 with a 43-43 record and 23-19 home record. Justin Masterson is 5-8 on the season with a 4.40 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and .251 opponents batting average. On the road he is just 2-4 with a higher 5.93 ERA. Ricky Romero isn’t pitching like he can in 2012, although is record doesn’t really show that. Romero is 8-4 on the season, but his ERA is at 5.22. He is 5-1 at home with a 4.75 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and .240 opponents batting average. Take note that the Indians are 4-9 in their last 13 road games, 4-10 in Masterson’s last 14 starts as a road underdog, and 1-4 in his last 5 starts vs an AL East opponent. The Blue Jays are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a favorite of -110 to -150, 16-5 in Romero’s last 21 home starts, and 22-8 in his last 31 starts overall. Toronto has also taken 5 of these two teams last 6 meetings.
Cincinnati Reds -118
The Reds are 2nd in the NL Central with their 47-38 record and 23-16 home record, while the Cardinals are 3rd with a 46-40 record and 23-20 road record. Adam Wainwright is 7-8 on the season with a 4.56 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and .275 opponent batting average. Mat Latos is 7-2 on the year with a 4.13 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and .241 opponents batting average. Over his last three games, which have included two complete games, he is 2-0 with a 0.72 ERA. At home this year he is 5-1 with a 3.47 ERA. Take note that the Cardinals are just 3-8 in their last 11 games as an underdog, and 2-9 in Wainwright’s last 11 road starts vs a team with a winning record. The Reds are 9-2 in their last 11 home games vs a team with a winning record, 7-2 in Latos’ last 9 starts overall and 5-0 in his last 5 home starts. Latos has been the better pitcher this season, and the Reds have been solid all year at home. Take Cincinnati to win.
Chicago White Sox -115
Chicago sits a top the AL Central with their 47-38 record, and 23-16 road record, and the Royals are 4th in the Central with their 37-47 record and awful 14-23 home record in the year that they enjoyed hosting the All Star festivities. Tonight’s starter for Chicago is rookie Jose Quintana who is off to a 4-1 start with a 2.04 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and .225 opponents batting average. Lefty Bruce Chen will pitch for Kansas City and he has been pretty inconsistent this season. He is 7-8 with a 5.22 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and .278 opponents batting average. He has pitched much better at home this year, but either way in 3 of his last 5 starts he has allowed 6 earned runs against and didn’t make it out of the 5th inning in 4 of those 5 starts. The White Sox are 7-1 in their last 8 divisional games, 5-1 in their last 6 overall and 19-7 in their last 26 games as a road favorite. The Royals dropped 5 of 6 before the All Star break, and have lost 6 straight games against divisional opponents. The Royals are 0-4 in Chen’s last 4 starts as an underdog and 2-5 in his last 7 vs divisional opponents. We will take the better team with the better starting pitcher tonight as the White Sox have been a good road team all year.
Athletics / Twins Under 7.5
Rookie A.J. Griffin is 0-0 over three starts with a very respectable 2.00 ERA. He has held opponents to hitting just .143 against him and he has a WHIP of 0.78. This year in the minors he was 6-3 with a 2.66 ERA and a WHIP of just 0.91 over 15 starts. Francisco Liriano is a new man with a 2.74 ERA over his lsat 8 starts to lower his overall ERA to 5.08. Over his last 4 starts he has allowed just 1 earned run against three times, and a total of 7 earned runs over the 4 starts. These two teams have played three times this season with totals of 4, 5, and 9. Before the break the Athletics scored 3 or fewer runs in 7 of their last 9 games, while the Twins scored 3 or fewer in 4 of their last 5. The UNDER is 16-5 in the A’s last 21 overall, and 7-1 in their last 8 road games. The UNDER is 8-3 in the Twins last 11 home games, and 4-1 in Liriano’s last 5 starts overall. Take the UNDER.
CFL Predictions
Winnipeg Blue Bombers +1.5
Winnipeg was initially going to be a 1 unit recommendation and sent to my CFL Picks members only but some late injury news for the Bombers has dropped this one down to 0.5 unit free play status for this week. I still like it enough to recommend a very small play on the Blue Bombers as they take on the Eskimos on Friday night. Winnipeg has a couple injury concerns entering this game—DB Alex Suber is out and so is LB Marcellus Bowman. Those are two key injuries on defense. However, I don't believe for one second Edmonton is even capable offensively of taking advantage of those Winnipeg defensive injuries nor do I believe they have any business laying points against anyone right now even against a winless team and a Winnipeg squad that will be playing with some early season desperation to notch their first victory of the season.
Winnipeg's defense despite their struggles will feel like they are playing an offense in slow motion this week facing the feeble Edmonton attack after playing two potent offenses in BC and Montreal to start the season. I expect the Blue Bombers to put forth their strongest defensive showing despite the injuries simply because they are taking not one but several steps down in class with Edmonton. I don't know what can be done to get Edmonton's offense going. They have no QB with the caliber of being a legitimate CFL starter as both QB's Stephen Jyles and Kerry Joseph proved to be not just bad last week but inept as well. They have no running game as the departure of Jerome Messam looks to be hurting them big time and aside from Fred Stamps, their receiving corps is paper thin especially after #2 WR Adarius Bowman suffered a potential season ending injury last week. He will obviously not play in this game. There looks to be more questions than answers with Edmonton's offense.
The Blue Bombers offense showed positive signs last week. Most importantly they started having at least some success running the football. Backup RB Bloi-Dei Dorzon finally jumped out of the shadows and put forth a strong 2H last week against Montreal and the Blue Bombers will need that kind of effort on the ground to neutralize a very strong Edmonton defense.
Overall, the Eskimos have the better defense but as last week's 17-1 loss to Saskatchewan proved, that defensive edge gets neutralized by the fact that Edmonton has had trouble putting 1st downs together let alone scoring points on offense. The Eskimos defense played great last week but they wore down in the 2H from being out on the field too much and it allowed Saskatchewan to eventually turn a close game into a win down the stretch. I expect this game to be close and if the Edmonton offense can't get going and nothing they've shown so far tells me they can, it sure makes the Eskimos a poor choice as favorites in this game in a game they will be hard pressed to win let alone win by margin with their offensive woes against a desperate and motivated Winnipeg team looking to climb out of an 0-2 hole to open the season.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. YANKEES -119 over L.A. Angels
Not often are the mighty Yanks underpriced at home but in this case they are because C.J. Wilson leads the AL with a road ERA of 2.01. With an overall ERA of 2.43, Wilson is making a case to become the Angels rotation anchor. Not so fast, as his skills are not even above average. Wilson has 49 walks and 88 K’s in 111 frames. He’s been greatly aided by an 80% strand rate but those walks he issues have a way of crossing the plate in New York. Wilson’s ERA is much lower than it should be, as evidenced by his xERA of 4.34 over the past month. One could argue that the Angels 14-7 (.667) record in the three weeks leading up to the break gives them some value but the Yanks have been playing .667 ball since May. Hiroki Kuroda’s strong skills and GB lean have made him a great fit for the Yankee rotation. He usually gives them a great chance to win but this one is more about wagering against a pitcher (C.J. Wilson) whose stock is far too high. Our Pick N.Y. YANKEES -119 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 1.68)
St. Louis +117 over CINCINNATI
Place little weight on Adam Wainright’s rough outing versus these Reds way back on April 19, as he was still fresh off Tommy John surgery and looking to find his groove. While his surface stats suggest he's still searching for it (4.56 ERA), a second half breakout appears inevitable. Wainright has a 3.18 xERA. He has 98 k’s in 103 innings, a strong 52% groundball profile and he doesn’t get taken yard too often. That groundball profile and the ability to keep the ball in the park is key at Great American Ballpark. Only once in his last six outings has Wainright given up a home run. Not many pitchers have been as sharp or as good as Adam Wainright but he has not been rewarded for his elite skills. Mat Latos’s stock is higher than it’s been in quite some time. He’s 2-0 over his past three starts with a miniscule 0.72 ERA. Latos has near identical SO/BB totals as Wainright (98 K’s and 30 walks in 105 innings). However, his groundball/fly-ball split is just 43%/40% and he’ll be facing a Cardinals team that leads the NL in runs scored on the road, batting average, OPS and a few other notable offensive categories. The Cardinals on the road with Wainright going is just too strong a combination to pass up when being offered a tag. Our Pick St. Louis +117 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.34)
Boston -101 over TAMPA BAY
The Red Sox are hitting .272 over their past 20 games. The Rays are hitting .220 over that same span. Against right-handers, Tampa Bay is 34-24 this season. Against southpaws they’ve won 11 of 28 games and they’ll face one that they’re not familiar with here in Franklin Morales. Morales is coming off a rough outing in New York but he joins many pitchers coming off a tough day in the Bronx. Prior to that, Morales was bringing it with three outstanding starts in a row. He has 48 K’s and just 13 walks in 48 frames. His xERA and actual ERA are identical at 3.50 and while it’s a small sample, there’s nothing to suggest he got lucky in his earlier starts. Morales was a top prospect for the Rockies and could remain under the radar for a couple more starts. Jeremy Hellickson has outpitched his skills ever since he arrived at this level. It’s caught up to him a little bit this year but there’s still plenty more correction coming to his surface stats. In 87 frames, Hellickson has 56 K’s and 35 walks. His xERA of 5.54 is more than two runs higher than his misleading 3.41 actual ERA. He has a groundball//fly-ball split of 39%/41%. All these unfavorable numbers do not equate to a pitcher with a 3.41 ERA and that’s why a correction is upcoming. With a lame offense behind Hellickson and with the Rays facing a lefty, there’s no bargain backing this host.Play: Boston -101 (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Dodgers/ Padres Over 6.5: I really wanna get this game out before it hits 7 overnight. We all know that the Padres have problems scoring at home (.2.98), but on the road they average 4.05 rpg, so they do score away from home. They do struggle vs lefties on the road, putting up just 3.1 rpg vs them away from home, but really they only need 3 runs in this one. Clayton Kershaw has a solid 2.57 ERA at home, but in his last 3 home starts he has allowed 10 ER's combined. Clayton also allowed 3 ER's on 8 hits in 5.1 innings of work here vs the padres earlier in the year. Clayton Richard has been solid at home this year, but on the road he has a 4.14 ERA, wild at night he has a 4.35 ERA. His road starts have averaged 8.1 rpg, while his night starts have averaged 9.2 rpg. Clayton Richard has 3 starts vs LA this year and he has a 2.70 ERA in those starts, but in his laone start he he allowed 4 ER's in just 6 innings of work. His 3 starts vs LA have averaged 11.3 rpg, while both of Kershaw's starts vs the Padres have put up at least 8 runs. I really don't see how both teams don't get at least 3 runs in this one.
MILWAUKEE -147 over Pittsburgh: Google News Play James MCDonald has been excellent for the Pirates this year, with a 9-3 mark and a 2.34 ERA. He is 4-2 on the road, with a 3.54 ERA and 1 of his road starts were at Milwaukee and he allowed just 1 ER in 6 innings of work. Prior to the start vs them this year he did go 0-2 with a 10.62 ERA in his only two other starts he, so he can struggle in this park. Zach Greinke does not struggle in this park. The Brewers are 23-1 in his 24 home starts, while he is 15-0 with a 2.68 ERA in those starts. Not only does he have a solid ERA here, but he also has a 1.02 WHIP in this park. This year Zach is a 4-0 with a 1.89 ERA in 7 home starts, with the Brewers going 6-1 in those starts. The Pirates do score well on the road, at v4.4 rpg, but the Brewers score better at home (5.3 rpg). The nail in the Coffin for Pittsburgh is the fact that they are just 8-44 in their last 52 games played in this park. Pittsburgh has the best home record in the league, but on the road they are just 19-23 and that number will not get any better as the Brewers take game one of this series.
Minnesota/ Oakland Under 8: I tell you one thing, Francisco Liriano better not pick this game top go in the tank. I have been waiting for it since he came back from the Minors, but he has produced a 2.73 ERA since his return and he has has allowed 3 ER's or less in 6 of those 8 starts. He has a 5.05 ERA at home overall, but a 3.60 ERA in his last 5 starts here. In his last 2 starts vs the A's he has allowed 2 ER's and has now allowed 3 ER's or less in 6 of his last 7 starts vs them. A.J. Griffin gets the ball for the A's and he has been solid in his 3 career starts this year. In his those 3 starts he has a 1.50 ERA in 18 innings and it has been an impressive 1.50 ERA, because of who he faced. In his first start he faced a Giants team at home. Now SF doesn't score well at home (3.33), but on the road they average 4.5 rpg. after that he went to Texas and allowed 0 ER's on 2 hits in 6 innings. Then he took on Boston at home and allowed 1 ER on 3 hits in 6 innings. His WHIP vs those teams is a mere 0.72. The Twins score 3.96 vrpg at home vs righties compared to 6.11 vs lefties, while Oakland hits lefties at a .221 clip and scores 3.9 rpg off of them on the road. The Twins pen has been solid in the last 10 games with a 3.48 ERA, while Oakland has a 1.97 ERA from their pen over that stretch. Looks like a Pitcher's duel in Minnesota tonight.
Texas -135 over SEATTLE: Pride. Texas is a proud team and the last time they faced this team the Mariners won the last 2 in that series (at Texas) 10-3 and 21-8. In that 21-8 game Derek Holland took the loss and allowed 8 ER's in 1.2 innings of work. Both Derek and and the Rangers must be chomping at the bit to get some revenge for that last game. Derek always has problems at home, but he is 3-1 with a 3.23 ERA on the road this year and prior to that last start vs the M's he did have a 2.70 ERA in his previous 5 starts vs them, plus in 1 career start here (last year) he threw a CG shutout. Kevin Milwood has pitched well, with a 3.69 ERA, but the M's are just 6-10 in his starts this year. In his last 3 starts they are 0-3, despite his 3.68 ERA and that's because they have averaged just 2.3 rpg for him in those starts. At home this year Kevin is just 1-2 with a 5.29 ERA in 7 starts. He has pitched well vs Texas this year, with a 1-0 mark and a 1.05 ERA in 3 starts vs them, but with this being his 4th start vs them and with him facing an angry Rangers lineup, you can bet that Texas will finally tag him here. Texas can not relax in the second half, as the Angles are gonna make a serious run, and with them losing 4 of their last 6 vs the Mariners you can bet that Texas and Derek will be fully focused here coming out the break.
Evan Abrams
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays ML Pitchers: Jeremy Hellickson vs Franklin Morales Lineups: Bos- 1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF 2. Daniel Nava (S) LF 3. David Ortiz (L) DH 4. Adrian Gonzalez (L) 1B 5. Will Middlebrooks (R) 3B 6. Jarrod Saltalamacchia (S) C 7. Ryan Sweeney (L) RF 8. Mike Aviles (R) SS 9. Pedro Ciriaco (R) 2B TB- 1. Elliot Johnson (S) SS 2. Carlos Pena (L) 1B 3. Ben Zobrist (S) RF 4. B.J. Upton (R) CF 5. Jeff Keppinger (R) 2B 6. Sean Rodriguez (R) 3B 7. Luke Scott (L) DH 8. Desmond Jennings (R) LF 9. Jose Lobaton (S) C Rays have the small advantage at home to start the second half of the regular season with Jeremy Hellickson on the mound. Hellickson has pitched very effectively against Boston in his last two starts and should be able to keep the Red Sox run total low enough to make the home value too much to pass on Tampa Bay. Hellickson has lost his last 3 starts overall going into the All Star Break and should start the second half with good home motivation.
Houston Astros vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: Houston Astros
Play: Houston Astros ML/RL (+1.5) Pitchers: Wandy Rodriguez vs Madison Bumgarner Lineups: Hou- 1. Jose Altuve (R) 2B 2. Brian Bixler (R) RF 3. Justin Maxwell (R) CF 4. J.D. Martinez (R) LF 5. Jed Lowrie (S) SS 6. Chris Johnson (R) 3B 7. Chris Snyder (R) C 8. Matt Downs (R) 1B 9. Wandy Rodriguez (S) P SF- 1. Justin Christian (R) RF 2. Ryan Theriot (R) 2B 3. Melky Cabrera (S) LF 4. Buster Posey (R) C 5. Pablo Sandoval (S) 3B 6. Angel Pagan (S) CF 7. Brandon Belt (L) 1B 8. Joaquin Arias (R) SS 9. Madison Bumgarner (R) P Astros have lost 10 of their last 11 games overall going into the All Star break, but tonight is a whole new "season" and against the Giants lineup I think Houston offers value on the road at almost a 2 to 1 underdog. Wandy threw 6 innings (3 ER) on the road in San Francisco back in June and should be able to keep the Astros in this game as such a large underdog. Astros are only averaging 2.14 runs per game in their last 7 road games, so if Houston has a shot, they are going to need to get a good performance from Wandy Rodriguez tonight.