Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, July 16,2010

Marc Lawrence
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Oakland Athletics at Kansas City Royals
Prediction: Kansas City Royals
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When the Royals host the Athletics in the opener of a three game series at Kauffman Stadium they will send ace right-hander Zach Greinke to the mound against Gio Gonzalez knowing Greinke is in commanding KW form with five walks and 41 strikeouts in his last six starts. He's also 3-0 in his last three starts in this series with four walks and 24 strikeouts to show for his efforts. With Gonzlalez just 1-3 in his last four tries on the road, look for Greinke to make it four straight team starts wins here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Kansas City.

Steve Merril

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves -1.5

Atlanta has won all four meetings with the Brewers so far this season. Tommy Hanson will get the start tonight and try for the Braves’ fifth win against Milwaukee. Hanson is 8-5 with a 4.13 ERA in 18 starts this season. He has struck out 104 batters and walked only 34 which is a terrific ratio. One of those wins came against the Brewers in Milwaukee back in May. In that game, Hanson gave up just four hits in eight innings of work, striking out eight while walking only one. Craig Counsell (2-8), Rickie Weeks (0-4), Corey Hart (0-3), Alcides Escobar (0-3), and George Kottaras (0-2) all struggle with the Braves starter. Hanson is backed by an Atlanta bullpen that has an 11-0 record at home and an ERA below three. Milwaukee’s Randy Wolf has had an inconsistent season. He's 6-8 with a 4.56 ERA in 19 starts. The lefty has a terrible history against Atlanta as he is 4-12 with a 5.34 ERA and a WHIP of 1.55 in his career. In his last three starts against the Braves, Wolf has given up 14 runs and 24 hits in 18 innings pitched. Chipper Jones (20-51), Matt Diaz (7-13), and Brian McCann (4-9) all hit the lefty well. Milwaukee’s bullpen has an ERA over five on the road with nine losses and seven blown saves, and since Wolf struggles against the Braves as well, we’ll recommend playing Atlanta on the run line in this game tonight.

Cajun Sports

Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins

The Twins will send Francisco Liriano to the bump on Friday night to face the Chicago White Sox and Gavin Floyd. The oddsmakers have made the Twins a substantial favorite in this contest even though Liriano has struggled of late and Floyd has been solid. Minnesota is 44-21 the last sixty-five times they were installed as a favorite. The Sox are 1-10 in Floyds last eleven road starts versus a team with a winning record and 2-8 their last ten as a road underdog. Chicago has found the going tough in the Twin Cities posting a record of 6-20 their last twenty-six there. We are going to back the host as Liriano and the Twins grab a victory in Game Two of this series.

PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Minnesota Twins 5 Chicago White Sox 2

Craig Trapp

Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Chicago White Sox

How is a team on a 9 game winning streak verse a team that has lost 7 of last 10 games favored? Loriano's #'s are good on the season but his last 5 starts he is 0-4 for MIN. Over those starts his ERA 6.75 and averaging nearly 3 walks while not making it past the 6th inning but once. He is 0-3 with an 8.27 ERA in four starts against the White Sox in his career as well. Floyd will start today for the CHW and he has been great going 3-0 in last four starts. Floyd has surrendered one run or fewer in six of seven starts, and the White Sox have won the last five times he's taken the mound. Morneau will be out again for MIN and since he has been missing they have really struggled putting up consistent runs. CHW on the other hand have blown up at the plate and no reason they won't continue today at a nice dog price.

Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons

Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays
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You may want to consider a second look at the Blue Jays in this situation:

Ricky Romero gets the nod for the visitors; Romero struggled into the All-Star Break, however I believe he'll bounce back after the layoff and continue his stellar play.
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He's dropped his last three starts and has a disturbing 11.25 ERA over that span; keep in mind though that he's 6-6 on the year with a respectable 3.71 ERA; also remember that Romero has already beaten the Orioles this season.

In the other dugout: Brad Bergesen heads to the hill for the home side; Bergesen last won on May 12th against the lowly Mariners; since then he's 0-4 with a 7.22 ERA; he got a "no decision" in a home loss in April to Toronto (part of a 3-game sweep).
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Bottom line: I'm not reading too much into Baltimore's four game win streak heading into the break; this team is on pace to rocket past its franchise-worst 107 loss season in 1988.

Bergesen is susceptible to the long ball and will be in tough against a very focused and rested Toronto team that leads the majors in that category (136).
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Romero is the better pitcher; the Blue Jays offer decent value in this spot!

JIM FEIST

NEW YORK METS / SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
PLAY: NEW YORK METS

The Mets and Giants play game two of their series here on Friday. The Mets are chasing Atlanta for first place in the NL East. Jose Reyes was a late scratch from Thursday's game because of a oblique muscle. Carlos Beltran has returned though. Beltran is returning from surgery to his knee back in January. This will likely mean less playing time for Jeff Francoeur. One big disappointment thus far is Jason Bay. Bay has only six home runs at the break after slugging 36 last year in Boston. It's a Wild Wild NL West as four teams are all close to the top with San Diego leading and fourth place San Francisco just four games back at the break. There has been talk of the Giants getting Corey Hart from Milwaukee, but the price is steep, either pitchers Jonathan Sanchez or Madison Bumgarner. They Giants may not be able to fill the spot if they part with Sanchez especially. Still, the Giants could use some offense to a team that is ranked pretty much middle of the pack in the main categories. Pitching is the main stay of this club and other teams will want to steal a good, young pitcher like Sanchez for any substantial player. As for today's matchup I'm siding with the Mets. Jonathon Niese is 6-3 with a 3.61 ERA and has won five of his last six decisions. Niese has allowed more than three earned runs just one time since May 16th. Zito is having a fine season with a 7-4 mark and 3.76 ERA, but he's been a big erratic of late. Zito has only gone past 5 1/3 inning once in his last four starts and has allowed 15 earned runs in his last 20 innings. Take the Mets here on Friday.

Tom Freese
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NY Mets at San Francisco
Play: NY Mets
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Mets starter Jonathon Niese has allowed 3 or less runs in 6 of his last 7 starts. New York is 14-3 vs. a starter with a WHIP of over 1.30 and they are 12-4 off a loss and they are 12-4 off a loss. The Mets are 6-1 in the last 7 starts made by Niese. The Mets are 12-5 their last 17 meetings with the Giants. San Francisco starter Barry Zito has allowed 10 runs in his last 16 innings of work. The Giants are 2-8 their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Giants are 8-20 with Zito when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their last game.

EZWINNERS
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New York Yankees -201
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To say that Tampa Bay's starting pitcher James Shields is having a poor season is an understatement. Going into the All-Star break, Shields has lost eight of his last nine starts has a losing record at 7-9 and an ERA of 4.87. Shields has had two good, but not great outings against the Yankees this season posting a 1-0 record with an ERA of 3.55 in two games but in his career his overall numbers against the Bronx Bombers are not good at 2-7 lifetime in eleven starts with an ERA of 5.54. Shields will not have much margin for error as the Yankees will send CC Sabathia to the mound for this game. Sabathia is on a roll at 12-3 for the season with an ERA of 3.09. In his last three outings Sabathia has been even better as he has posted a 3-0 record with an ERA of just 1.19. Sabathia is also 8-3 against Tampa in sixteen career starts with an ERA of just 2.97 and he threw 7 2/3 innings of one hit, shutout ball against the Rays earlier this season. I expect another dominating performance by Sabathia and the Yankees are 9-1 in Sabathia's last ten home starts against a team with a winning record. Play on New York.

VEGAS EXPERTS
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Washington Nationals at Florida Marlins
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The Florida Marlins host the Washington Nationals tonight at 7:10 PM ET for the first game of the series. The Nationals come into tonight’s matchup after back to back loses against San Fran. Strasburg is on the mound for Washington. With a team start record of 4-3, 3.32 ERA, and 1.008 WHIP, Strasburg is having a good season. On the other side of the pitching matchup, Nolasco starts for the Marlins. Nolasco comes into tonight’s matchup with four straight wins, so he is due for a loss. With a 5.31 ERA and 1.436 WHIP, he tends to pitch lousy at home. Florida hasn’t won a game yet this season as a home underdog of +100 to +125 (0-8). Play on the Washington Nationals.
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Play on: Washington Nationals

Tony George
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Washington Nationals vs. Florida Marlins
Play: Florida Marlins
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Strasburg and Nolasco on the hill tonight, both studs toeing the rubber tonight in what should be a low scoring ballgame. The total at 7 kinda scares me because in the last 12 home game with Nolasco, the Marlins have went over 11 times! Odds are due to go under but after a closer look I like the dog. I like the Marlins at home with a stud pitcher and a hot bullpen as a dog against the Nats tonight. I look for the bats of Florida to get enough runs at home once the Nats bullpen comes into play, as they have near a 7 ERA in their last 3 games. A small free play lean to the host team tonight to open this series with a win.

DAVID CHAN
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Philadelphia Phillies @ Chicago Cubs
PICK: Chicago Cubs
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The Chicago Cubs open the second half of the 2010 season with an impressive 12-6 victory over the Philadelphia Philles. Cubs sluggers Derek Lee and Alfonso Soriano each collected 3 hits, while Aramis Ramirez added a season high-tying 4 RBIs. The Phillies have won only 2 of their last 8 on the road dating back to June 28th. RHP Joe Blanton hasn't been impressive on the road for the 2010 season. Since missing the first month of the season, Blanton has been an innings eater and not much else. going into Fridays action Blanton 8.41 ERA would rank as the top figure in the National league if he had enough innings to qualify. Blanton has an away record of 1-3 with an ERA of 7.68 with 22 SO 9 BB in 36 innings of work. Chicago LHP Ted Lilly has a home record of 2-4 with ERA of 4.24 in 53 innings with 34 SO 13 BB.

SPORTS WAGERS
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NY Mets +1.19 over SAN FRANCISCO
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Barry Zito continues to falter and that’s the Barry Zito you should get used to seeing as opposed to the one that opened the year with a 1.49 ERA after six starts. Since then, Zito’s ERA has risen to 3.76, which still looks good on paper but that’s all it is. In the last 31 days, his ERA was 5.79 and that includes one of the luckiest performances in years. In his last start in Milwaukee, Zito gave up two runs in 4.2 innings but he also walked six and allowed seven hits. That’s 13 baserunners in 4.2 innings and he’s fortunate he didn’t give up eight runs or even more. Fact is, Zito is still flashing the same mediocre stuff that says he can't get out of trouble and that hasn't changed despite what his ERA would suggest. Meanwhile, Jonathon Niese is the Mets hottest pitcher and it’s no fluke. This guy has a wicked curve and a nasty cutter. Over the last seven starts, Niese is 5-1 with a 2.68 ERA and a high GB % is one of the reason’s he’s been so good. Niese has allowed one run or less in four of his past seven starts and he also displays strong control, having walked just 28 batters and whiffing 73 in 89 frames. Zito and the Giants favored over Niese and the Mets is an overlay that should not be overlooked. Play: NY Mets +1.19 (Risking 2 units).

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Colorado +1.24 over CINCINNATI
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We get some outstanding value here on Jason Hammel against Bronson Arroyo and Arroyo’s misleading 9-4 record. First, Hammel is one of the most undervalued pitchers in the game and that’s because he gets very little recognition pitching in the shadows of Ublado Jiminez. Fact is, The Rocks have won eight of Hammels’ last nine starts and the only game they lost over that span was in Boston. Hammel has allowed two runs or less in seven of those nine starts with six of those starts coming at hitter friendly Coors. He has one of the best groundball percentages in the business and that should bode well at this park. Hammel got off to a shaky start and therefore his surface stats look average when in fact, he’s anything but. The man can pitch, period. In 53 innings at home, Arroyo has walked 23 and struck out 24. Arroyo has also had the luxury of some favorable match-ups, as he’s faced the Mets in New York, Chicago at Wrigley with the wind blowing in, Cleveland (twice), Oakland, the Pirates three times, San Diego and Houston. His proven 200-IP track record has some value, but mediocre skills, persistent carpal tunnel (wrist) discomfort raise the risk. If you wager on Arroyo here, you’re overpaying big time. Play: Colorado +1.24 (Risking 2 units).

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Arizona +1.00 over SAN DIEGO
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Another sweet line here, as Jon Garland should never be favored over Dan Haren. Haren’s ERA on the year is higher than Garland’s and that’s a complete mirage, as Haren pitches in a tough park while Garland pitches in a park that could make Ernest Borgnine look good. Pay no attention whatsoever to Haren’s 4.36 ERA. Instead focus on an xERA of 3.22 and again, that’s at a tough hitter’s park. Haren has elite control with skills to match. He can dominate a line-up and chances are at this park, that’s precisely what will occur. Garland’s record and ERA are seriously out of whack with his skills. The ERA sure looks sweet, but beware - xERA indicates that he’s not pitched that well. Hit % and strand rate are making his season but the correction in his numbers has already begun to take place and they’ll be even higher as the season progresses. Garland is about as hittable and mediocre of a pitcher as there is in the big leagues and again, the fact that he’s favored over an elite pitcher like Haren is ludicrous. Play Arizona +1.00 (Risking 2 units).

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Winnipeg +3½ over HAMILTON
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There’s lots of pressure on the TiCats here, as they’re in position to open the year 0-3 and likely 0-4 with the Als on deck. What’s interesting is that the TiCats opened the year in Winnipeg and were a three-point choice and just two weeks later they’re just a half point higher at home. Still, Hamilton has loads of problems with the most notable being that Kevin Glenn is getting hit more often than a MMA fighter and that is going to take its toll at some point. The Ticats have not been able to run the ball or refuse to run and that, too, has to change. Frankly, the Ticats biggest threat has been the punt and kickoff returns and that’s a difficult way to live. Winnipeg is not void of trouble either. Losing at home as an 11½-point favorite is disturbing to say the least. Allowing the pedestrian Argo offense to rack up 36 points is also disturbing. However, Buck Pierce looks good and when he’s not finding an open receiver, he can run like the wind. He’s averaging over 14 yards a carry thus far on is own and that has to be a huge concern for the host. The Blue Bombers absolutely have to get better on special teams and that flaw could hurt them big in this one. Still, taking back points appears to be a lot more appealing than laying them and if the TiCats don’t get off to a good start the booing will begin and the pressure will heighten. Play Winnipeg +3½ (No wager).

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B.C. LIONS +5½ over Montreal
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The Als are 1-1 and frankly, they’re fortunate they’re not 0-2. The Als defense has looked very shaky and its offense hasn’t been that sharp either, despite what the numbers say. Furthermore, the Als will play its third consecutive game on the road to open the season and will also play its second game in five days. They stayed out west, much like the Stamps stayed East and we all saw the negative effect it had on Calgary in Toronto. It’s also worth noting that the Als always have trouble playing in British Columbia and this situation does not favor them at all. Against the Riders in week one, the Als had 198 less total yards than Saskatchewan and even last week they were outgained by 103 yards. By contrast, and although they were whacked by 19 points against the Riders last week, the Lions were outgained by just 34 yards. Its defense has looked pretty good thus far and now they’ll have the luxury of playing consecutive home games. Montreal are the champs and they’re considered to be one of two elite teams in this league. However, they may not be as good as advertised and when you wager on them you’re paying a premium to do so. This one should be very close indeed and a Lions win would not surprise us one bit. Play: B.C. Lions +5½ (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).

Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on Giants -123
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Good spot for the Giants here with Zito pitching well at home and the Mets playing poorly on the road this season. The Mets are just 18-25 on the road this season where they are hitting just .249 as a team and their pitching staff has allowed 4.9 runs per game. Barry Zito has had two bad starts in a row, but it's worth noting that both games were on the road. Zito is 5-1 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 9 starts at home this season.

JR O'Donnell
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ATL -1.5 (-115) vs MIL
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The 53-36 Atlanta Braves squeaked by 2-1 last night vs. the "falling fast" 40-50 Milwaukee Brewers. Looking @ Hanson whose has gone 1-0 and a 1.50 ERA with 15 K's the last 2 starts. He will lead the Bravos on the mound and the Bravos will not leave men on the base. Those 2 solo homeruns last night will come tonight with men on as Randy Wolf will get pounded in Georgia. The Braves have quietly won 5 out of 6 will feast on R Wolf who has been shaky @ best. The retread R. Wolf is 0-5 with a 7+ ERA as of late and a terrible record vs. these Bravos .0-3 in 7 starts. The Bravos set up tonight to pound somebody and the Randy Wolf lead Brewers are the medicine that the Atlanta Braves need!