Sac Lawson
CHC (-125) vs PHI
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I definitely did some waffling here, mainly because Blanton does have some decent success against the Cubs over the course of his career, and Lilly has been hit pretty hard by the Phills in his career. BUT, Lilly being a lefty still leads me to believe that his matchup with the power left-handed bats is a decent one. On top of that, the Phillies, after giving up double digit runs (which they did yesterday), have lost the following day on every single occasion this season. Meaning, when things go bad for this team, they stay bad, at least in the short term.
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The Cubs, as a team, know that they are a streaky bunch. And they know they need one huge run to get them back in this division race. But their performance yesterday was an indication that they certainly haven't thrown in the towel. They put up runs, and kept piling on. Sustained their focus, and got a huge win against a talented Phillies club. They've got a four game series here, and the next two pitching matchups are certainly not favorable. In order to get the much needed split, the Cubs simply have to win this game. Expect their focus to reflect that.
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Lilly has had his troubles during Day games so far this year, but the fact that he was 24-12 over the prior three seasons coming into this year makes me believe his 0-3 day game record is an anomaly. And knowing the type of movement Lilly can put on a curveball really makes me believe that the sunshine is to his advantage.
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As for Blanton, righties have hit him hard all year long. That straight fastball isn't fooling anyone, and when it's up in the zone, the balls fly outta the park. Chicago showed some hot bats last night, it continues into this afternoon. Cubs Win!
ANA (-130) vs SEA
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Unfortunate situation King Felix is in these days. Not only does he have to share a nickname with LeBron, but he's got to pitch for a team that literally doesn't give a damn. It's tough enough to ride the Mariners on the road where they are 14-30 this season, but it's even harder to do so now that the team has given up. On top of that, Felix has had two starts against the Angels this year, and neither have gone very well at all. He's riding into this one with a 6.35 ERA. Ouch.
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On the other side, obviously I like backing the Angels at home, especially with Weaver on the mound. Weaver is holding opponents to a 0.194 BAA at home this year, and is 3-1 against the Mariners overall. Which makes him 9-3 over the last four seasons. Needless to say, he knows what he's doing against the Mariners.
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Aside from that, there isn't much else to say. These bullpens, talent wise, are pretty even. Yet we have the luxury of knowing that if this game is tied going into the 8th (which is actually quite likely), our team is out there trying to win, and the Mariners' focus is subpar, at best. Angels for 1 unit!
Rocketman
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Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins
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Minnesota is 45-20 the past 3 years and 14-3 this year as a home favorite of -125 to -150. Minnesota bullpen has a 2.98 ERA overall this year and a 3.17 ERA at home on the season. Gavin Floyd is 2-5 with a 4.35 ERA on the road this year. Francisco Liriano has a 3.86 ERA overall on the season and has a 2.89 ERA at home this year. Minnesota is 16-5 at home vs Chicago White Sox the past 3 years. We'll recommend a small play on Minnesota tonight!
Larry Ness
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Washington Nationals at Florida Marlins
Prediction: Washington Nationals
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The Nationals are a woeful 14-29 on the road but when Starsburg pitches (home or way), one has to take a look at the Nats. He's 3-2 with a 2.32 ERA in his seven 2010 starts, allowing two runs or less in SIX of those seven starts (allowed four runs, three earned, in the other one) while posting an impressive 61-11 KW ratio. The Marlins open the season's second half with a 10-game homestand, 10 1/2 games behind the Braves in the NL East. Team president David Samson has said that this homestand will likely determine if Florida is a buyer or seller at baseball?s trade deadline. My guess is that the Marlins will be selling! Ricky Nolasco has won four straight games (seven innings pitched in all four while posting a 3.54 ERA) and is 9-6 with a 4.55 ERA in 18 starts this season. The Marlins are 10-8 in those starts but the breakdown shows they are 7-3 in his road starts and just 3-5 in his home starts (where Nolasco owns a 5.09 ERA). I'm backing Strasburg.
Hollywood Sports
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White Sox at Twins
Prediction: Under
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Both these starting pitchers are undervalued relative to their frontline pitching stats. Gavin Floyd enters the game with a 5-7 record with a 4.20 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. But over his last seven starts, Floyd boasts a sparkling 1.25 ERA with a 0.85 WHIP. He faces off against Francisco Liriano who is 6-7 with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. While Liriano has struggled over his five starts, we take note of the fact that his two worst starts were against Minnesota's AL Central rivals in the Tigers. At home now, Liriano should get his groove back as he sports a 2.89 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and an opponent's batting average of just .243.
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Both of these starting pitchers share a deeper sabermetric statistic that we consider important. Isolated Power (ISO) is a sabermetric determined by slugging percentage minus batting average. This metric identifies the net percentage of hits that are going for extra-bases. Just as slugging percentage privileges homeruns over triples and triples over doubles, this metric maintains that weighted-value system. The MLB ISO average is in the .145-.155 range. For pitchers, low ISOs are good and high ISOs are bad. Floyd and Liriano have low ISO's of .120 and .080 respectively which indicates they both have been very stingy regarding giving up extra-base hits. Why are statistics like ISO helpful for us? The importance for sabermetric statistics like this is that it exposes a deeper picture regarding the expected future performances of starting pitchers. Most bettors evaluate pitchers based on a starter's Won-Loss record and ERA. By analyzing statistics like ISO, we get a better sense as to why a pitcher has a certain W-L record or ERA which produces a more sophisticated perspective when now evaluating a pitcher's future.
Frank Jordan
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Athletics vs. Royals
Play: Under 7.5
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Oakland and Kansas City are two of the lower scoring teams in the league and with Gio Gonzalez, sub 4 era, and Zach Greinke, sub 4 era, on the mound scoring will be even less. Both teams are in the bottom third of the majors in runs scored with Oakland 24th and Kansas City 21st as well as both being in the bottom 5 in the majors in HRs. Play the Under
John Ryan
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Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Texas Rangers
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Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Rangers will win. Boston is in a poor situation noting they re just 5-20 (-16.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team winning between 54% to 62% of their games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons; 5-20 (-15.6 Units) against the money line versus teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Red Sox are reeling losers of 6 of the last 8 and have big time injuries to boot. Felix Doubront is being called up again from AAA Pawtucket and we strongly believe is very likely to get pounded by the Rangers offense. Control issues will be prevalent so look for the Ranger hitters led by league leader in BA Josh Hamilton to be extremely patient at the plate. This hitting approach will get the hitters into strong hitting counts of 2-1 and 2-0. take Texas.
Rob Vinciletti
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Cleveland Indians
Cleveland looks like a live dog here tonight. So we will back them as the free play. Detroit is just 4-14 on the road with a posted total of 9 to 9.5 and 2-5 as a road favorite -125 to -150. In the pitching matchup M. Scherzer is just 1-7 in road starts with a 5.44 era. In an earlier start here he allowed 5 runs in 5 innings. Cleveland counter with J. Westbrook. In his 2 starts vs the Indians he has been pretty good giving up 4 runs in 13+ innings of work. Go with Cleveland tonight.
TEDDY COVERS
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Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
PICK: Chicago White Sox
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The White Sox are the hottest team in baseball, cashing in their first game following the All Star break to improve their current run to 26-5 in their last 31 ballgames. With Gavin Floyd on the hill, Chicago has no business as an underdog against a Twins team headed in the wrong direction right now. Minnesota is 6-14 in their last 20 games as they’ve tumbled out of first place in the AL Central.
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Floyd has been nothing short of spectacular in recent starts. He struggled early and often in April and May, sitting at 2-6 with a 6.64 ERA following a disastrous start against the Rangers to open the month of June. Since that time, Floyd has completely turned his season around; a microcosm of the team behind him. He’s thrown seven consecutive quality starts, allowing just seven total runs in those seven outings. Floyd hasn’t allowed a single home run during that span while striking out 41 batters; a true ‘bet on’ hurler right now.
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The Twins recent slump has coincided with an injury to the former AL MVP, Justin Morneau, languishing in the dugout following a rather nasty concussion. This is not a particularly potent lineup without their biggest bat. Meanwhile, Minnesota is 0-5 in Francisco Liriano’s last five starts; just 3-9 in his last dozen trips to the hill; sporting an 8.59 ERA over his last three appearances. The Twins bullpen behind him is already spent following Kevin Slowey’s early exit last night, as four relievers combined to throw 97 pitches. Liriano has cashed only once in his last six tries as a home favorite, a trend worth riding again tonight. 2* Take the Chicago White Sox.
Jack Jones
Washington Nationals -115
Rarely will you find rookie phenom Stephen Strasburg at this price this season. Strasburg is 3-2 with a 2.32 ERA and 1.008 WHIP through 7 starts this season, striking out 61 batters in 42.2 innings while walking only 11. He is clearly the better starter in this match-up. Ricky Nolasco has struggled at home this season, going 2-4 with a 5.31 ERA and 1.436 WHIP in 7 home starts. Nolasco faced the Nationals earlier this season on April 30th, allowing 5 earned runs, 9 base runners and 2 home runs in 4 innings to take the loss in a 1-7 setback at home.
Not only do the Nats have the better starter on the bump tonight, but they have the more reliable bullpen. Washington's relievers have posted a 3.61 ERA this season, while the Florida bullpen sports a 7-16 record and a 4.41 ERA for the year. Florida's relievers have been even worse at home, posting a 4-8 record with a 5.06 ERA and 1.614 WHIP. The Marlins are 0-8 against the money line as a home underdog of +100 to +125 this season and 1-11 as a home underdog of +100 or higher. Take Washington Friday.
Info Plays
3* on New York Yankees -170
Reasons the Yankees win:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (TAMPA BAY) - cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts. This is a 66-7 ML System hitting 90.4% over the last 5 seasons.
2.) C.C. Sabathia has posted a 1.81 ERA in winning all eight starts since the beginning of June. He has given up four earned runs over his last 38 2-3 innings, allowing one over seven frames in Sunday's 8-2 win at Seattle. James Shields is 1-8 with a 7.00 ERA in his last nine starts. Shields is 2-7 with a 5.54 ERA in 11 lifetime starts vs. New York. Bet the Yankees at home.
Derek Mancini
Not sold on the Reds at this price. Cincy opened as a much larger favorite and we've seen this number progressively drop, despite the fact the public is all over them here. That kind of line movement immediately calls my attention, and its a big part of the reason I'm advocating a play on Colorado in this match up.
The other reason is the pitching match up. Jason Hammel (7-3, 4.08 ERA) has been fantastic over his L3 starts, and really over the last month or so, posting 7 quality efforts in his 8 starts since June 1st. He has that one rough start vs Boston, but otherwise has been phenomenal. He's also catching the Reds in the midst of a slump at the plate - without having scored a run in 21 straight innings. True, that came before the break, but regardless, getting anything on Hammel at this point will be difficult.
Bronson Arroyo (9-4, 4.04) has also pitched very well of late, but he's been unreliable at home, going 3-2 with a 4.19 ERA. He got roughed up by the Indians and Royals in two of his L3 home starts, and will be facing a Rockies offense that comes into this game on fire, batting .341 over their L10 games. Neither bullpen has been impressive, but overall the Rockies are playing better baseball at this point, and that includes Hammel. Colorado (Hammel) over Cincinnati (Arroyo) Friday.
2♦ COLORADO
Chuck O'Brien
Got screwed out of a free winner on Thursday, as the Rangers-Red Sox game just missed going over the total despite Texas scoring six times in the first inning. Friday’s complimentary selection comes from San Diego, as I’ll back the Diamondbacks against the Padres.
It took about three months, but Arizona’s Dan Haren is finally starting pitch like the ace that he is. He’s delivered four consecutive quality starts (3.14 ERA); he’s allowed three earned runs or fewer in seven of his last eight contests; and he’s finally keeping the ball in the ballpark, allowing just three home runs in his last eight outings (none in the last three).
So why not use Haren as a premium play today? Because the guy has had horrendous luck. Arizona has lost his last five starts in a row and is 2-7 in his last nine outings. On the bright side, though, the DBacks are 4-0 in Haren’s last four starts against the Padres (including two wins in San Diego), including a 6-3 Opening Day victory. For his career, Haren is 5-1 with a 3.04 ERA in 12 starts versus the Padres.
Pitching opposite Haren is Jon Garland, who was tremendous in the first two months of the season, but since June 1 the veteran right-hander is 2-4 with a 5.83 ERA. And in two starts against Arizona this year – including the 6-3 Opening Day loss to Haren – Garland has given up nine runs in nine innings, meaning he’s allowed 27 runs in 32 career innings against the DBacks.
3♦ ARIZONA
Karl Garrett
G-Man with a comp play winner last night on the Texas Rangers, and I will back the Rangers again on Friday night for another FREE play winner.
I agree that last night's starter Tommy Hunter is a better pitcher than tonight's starter Colby Lewis, but with the Red Sox sporting so many injuries, and the Red Sox now having lost 6 of their last 8 games, the G-Man feels that the only choice here is to lay the road wood with the AL West division leaders.
Texas is 9-4 versus Boston since last season, and Lewis is coming off a win his last trip to the hill to improve to 8-5 with a 3.33 ERA for the season.
Felix Doubront is making only his third start of the season, and already has allowed 5 runs through his first 11 frames of work this year in the starting rotation.
Boston has problems, and playing at home won't help matters tonight.
G-Man on Texas.
3♦ TEXAS
Bobby Maxwell
I nailed my FREE play on Thursday night when the Cardinals took care of the Dodgers in St. Louis. The win improved my comp play record to 120-107-3. I'm ready for another winner tonight as I grab the plus-money with the Mets in San Francisco.
The Mets have beaten the Giants 12 of the last 18 clashes, but they dropped a tough 2-0 decision on Thursday in San Francisco. Today, they’ll get the victory behind left-hander Jonathon Niese (6-3, 3.61 ERA).
Niese is 3-1 on the road this season and he’s gone 2-1 in his last three outings with a 1.74 ERA. In his last roadie, he held the Nationals to one run in seven innings, striking out eight in a 5-3 victory in Washington. He’s held the opposition to three runs or less in three straight road outings and he’s held all his opponents to three runs in less in seven of his last eight starts.
The Giants’ Barry Zito has been a little shaky lately and they have lost two of his last three home starts. He has a 5.62 ERA in his last three starts and he’s given up eight runs in his last 10 innings of work. The Giants have dropped three straight outings when Zito has taken on the Mets, including last year when he gave up three runs in five innings of a 3-0 loss.
San Francisco is on slides of 3-8 against teams with winning records, 2-6 in the second game of a series and 2-5 at home. New York is on positive streaks of 12-4 after a loss, 5-1 on Friday and 6-1 in Niese’s last seven outings overall.
New York has won five of its last eight visits to San Francisco and I’m banking on the Mets doing it again tonight behind Jonathon Niese. Play New York.
2♦ N.Y. METS
BRETT ATKINS
Made it two straight winners with my free plays on Thursday when the Rangers went into Boston and scored the victory over the Red Sox. Tonight I have a third straight winner as I go with the Twins at home to get the job done against the White Sox.
The Twins need a win and I’m banking on Francisco Liriano to deliver that win tonight. He has a 2.89 EA at home and he looked very good in front of the home crowd on July 3 when he held the Rays to one run in seven innings and struck out 10 Rays.
On April 8, Liriano faced the White Sox and gave up three runs in six innings of a 4-3 victory and he’s held the opposition to three runs or less in seven of his last nine starts.
Gavin Floyd starts for Chicago and with him on the hill, they are on slides of 3-9 on the road, 2-7 against A.L. Central teams and 2-8 as road ‘dogs.
Minnesota is on streaks of 39-16 on Friday and 36-17 against A.L. Central squads, plus the Twins are 20-7 in their last 27 against the White Sox in Minnesota and 12-4 in their last 16 meetings overall. Pay the price and play the Twins tonight.
4♦ MINNESOTA