SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Philadelphia (49-38) at Florida (46-35)
The streaking Phillies hand the ball to ace Cole Hamels (5-5, 4.87 ERA) for the second game of a four-game series at Land Shark Stadium against the Marlins, who will counter with right-hander Ricky Nolasco (6-7, 5.76).
Jamie Moyer and two Philadelphia relievers combined on a one-hit, 4-0 victory in Thursday’s series opener, giving the Phillies their sixth consecutive win and their 10th triumph in their last 11 contests, a surge that comes after a 4-14 plunge. Philly continues to sport baseball’s top road record at 27-15, and the defending champs are 14-6 in their last 20 divisional contests. However, the Phils have still dropped six of their last nine on the highway and are 1-5 in their last six against righty starters.
Despite Thursday’s shutout loss, Florida has still ripped off wins in 10 of its last 12 home games and is on further upswings of 4-2 inside the N.L. East and 12-6 against lefty starters.
Philadelphia is now on a 7-2 roll against the Marlins (5-2 this year), including winning six straight games in Florida. In fact, the visitor has taken 10 of the last 12 in this rivalry. However, the Marlins have won five in a row against Hamels and are on a 4-0 run at home against the left-hander.
After losing four in a row behind Hamels, Philly prevailed in his last two starts, including a 22-1 blitzing of Cincinnati on July 6, with Hamels yielding just the one run on three hits and no walks while striking out six in seven innings. In his most recent outing Saturday, though, Hamels gave up five runs on seven hits (three homers) in six innings, getting a no-decision as Philadelphia rallied for an 8-7 home win over Pittsburgh.
Hamels is 2-3 with an inflated 6.34 ERA in seven road starts this season, and he’s 2-4 with a 4.15 ERA in eight career starts against Florida, whom he hasn’t faced this year. Overall, the Phillies are 7-3 in Hamels’ last 10 road outings, but 1-4 in his last five Friday starts.
Florida has won five of its last six backing Nolasco, with the 26-year-old going 4-1 with a solid 2.69 ERA. However, the loss came a week ago tonight in Arizona, with Nolasco getting crushed for seven runs on nine hits and a walk in six innings of an 8-0 loss. Nolasco is 4-3 with a 4.40 ERA in seven home starts this season, though he’s won his last three in South Beach, yielding just two earned runs in 23 innings for a minuscule 0.78 ERA.
Nolaso, who hasn’t faced Philly this year, is 4-3 with a 4.25 ERA in nine career appearances (six starts) against the Phillies. Also, the Marlins are 4-1 in Nolasco’s last five division starts and 15-7 in his last 22 outings as an underdog.
Philadelphia carries “under” streaks of 9-3 overall, 8-0 on Friday, 5-0 in the N.L. East, 7-3 behind Hamels on the road and 5-1-1 with Hamels facing the Marlins. Likewise, the under for Florida is on runs of 6-0-1 against lefties, 4-1 behind Nolasco and 4-0 with the righty starting at home. However, the over is 5-2 in Hamels’ last seven outings overall, and even though Thursday’s game stayed well under the total, the over is still 53-24-3 in the last 80 Phillies-Marlins battles in Miami.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Detroit (48-39) at N.Y. Yankees (51-37)
In a battle of division leaders, the Yankees return from the All-Star break with right-hander A.J. Burnett (8-4, 3.77) pitted against first-year left-hander Luke French (1-0, 1.93) and the Tigers in the opener of a three-game weekend set at Yankee Stadium.
New York was on a 13-2 tear before getting swept by the Angels in Anaheim last weekend to wrap up the first half of the season. The Yankees ended the series with Sunday’s 5-4 loss, but over the course of the three-game set, the Pinstripes were outscored 29-18. Despite that, the Yankees remain on runs of 4-1 in series openers, 22-6 against the A.L. Central, 14-6 against lefty starters and 15-7 coming off a loss.
Detroit won four out of five going into the break, all on its home field. The Tigers took two of three from Cleveland over the weekend, capped by a 10-1 blowout Sunday. Detroit is 7-2 in its last nine outings against winning teams, but the Tigers are on skids of 4-10 on the highway, 16-35 in roadies against winning teams and 2-7 against the A.L. East.
In the lone series this season between these rivals, New York took two of three at Detroit during the last week of April, outscoring the Tigers by a combined 21-10. The Yankees are also 21-9 in their last 30 home starts against Detroit.
Burnett finished the first half strong, going 4-1 with a sparkling 1.33 ERA in his last five starts, including wins in his last three outings. On July 8 at Minnesota, he allowed two runs on seven hits and four walks in 6 1/3 innings of a 4-3 victory, and he’s now surrendered just five earned runs in his last 33 2/3 innings.
Burnett is 3-1 with a 3.74 ERA in eight home starts this season, and he’s 3-1 in five career starts against Detroit, despite a bloated 8.03 ERA. He won both his starts last year against the Tigers, posting a 5.73 ERA. Finally, with Burnett hurling, the Yanks are on upticks of 4-1 at home and 4-0 against winning teams.
French has just four appearances this year, with Detroit winning all four games, including a 3-1 home victory over the Royals on July 8 in just the second start of the left-hander’s major-league career. In that contest, the 23-year-old allowed one run (on a solo homer) on six hits and a walk in 6 1/3 innings. French has one road appearance this year, giving up two runs on six hits and two walks in 4 2/3 innings of a July 3 start at Minnesota, with the Tigers winning 11-9. This will be French’s first appearance against the Yankees.
The over for New York is on rolls of 4-0 overall, 4-0 against southpaws and 4-1 at home, and in this rivalry, the over is on a 5-2 stretch. But with Burnett taking the ball, the under is on runs of 4-0 overall, 5-1 in series openers, 8-2-1 on grass and 4-1 against winning teams. Furthermore, Detroit is on “under” tears of 11-3 overall, 7-1 on the road and 9-2 on grass.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
DUNKEL
Arizona at St. Louis
The Cardinals look to build on their 19-2 record in Chris Carpenter's last 21 home starts as a favorite of -200 or greater. St. Louis is the pick (-240) according to Dunkel, which has the Cards favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-240).
Game 951-952: Chicago Cubs at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Zambrano) 15.524; Washington (Stammen) 14.179
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-140); Over
Game 953-954: San Francisco at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 14.795; Pittsburgh (Maholm) 14.313
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-140); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-140); Over
Game 955-956: Milwaukee at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Suppan) 13.632; Cincinnati (Arroyo) 14.041
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-120); 10
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-120); Under
Game 957-958: Philadelphia at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.333; Florida (Nolasco) 14.666
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-125); Under
Game 959-960: NY Mets at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Pelfrey) 14.793; Atlanta (Jurrjens) 14.403
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+180); Under
Game 961-962: Arizona at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Garland) 15.471; St. Louis (Carpenter) 16.629
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-240); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-240); Over
Game 963-964: Colorado at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Jimenez) 15.030; San Diego (Geer) 15.247
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Colorado (-155); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+145); Over
Game 965-966: Houston at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Oswalt) 15.015; LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 15.860
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-160); Under
Game 967-968: Seattle at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 14.549; Cleveland (Ohka) 15.469
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Seattle (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+145); Under
Game 969-970: Boston at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Buchholz) 16.134; Toronto (Romero) 15.065
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+120); Under
Game 971-972: Detroit at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (French) 15.246; NY Yankees (Burnett) 16.454
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-205); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-205); Over
Game 973-974: Minnesota at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Perkins) 15.728; Texas (Padilla) 16.783
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-125); 11
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-125); Over
Game 975-976: Tampa Bay at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Shields) 14.713; Kansas City (Bannister) 14.049
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+110); Under
Game 977-978: Baltimore at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Berken) 15.544; White Sox (Danks) 14.416
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 979-980: LA Angels at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Saunders) 16.045; Oakland (Cahill) 16.557
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+110); Under
WNBA
Atlanta at Indiana
The Dream look to build on their 4-1 ATS record over their last 5 road games. Atlanta is the pick (+7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Indiana favored by just 6. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+7 1/2).
Game 651-652: Atlanta at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 110.810; Indiana 117.037
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 6; 144
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 7 1/2; 151 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+7 1/2); Under
Game 653-654: Connecticut at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 111.260; San Antonio 109.151
Dunkel Line & Total: Connecticut by 2; 149
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 4 1/2; 143
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+4 1/2); Over
Game 655-656: Seattle at Sacramento
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 109.303; Sacramento 106.817
Dunkel Line & Total: Seattle by 2 1/2; 151
Vegas Line & Total: Sacramento by 3; 140 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+3); Over
CFL
Toronto at Calgary
The Argonauts look to take advantage of a Calgary team that is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 July games. Toronto is the pick (+7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Stampeders favored by just 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+7 1/2).
Game 403-404: Toronto at Calgary
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 105.289; Calgary 108.944
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 3 1/2; 53 1/2
Vegas Line: Calgary by 7 1/2; 55
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+7 1/2); Under
Rob Vinciletti
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San Francisco Giants vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: San Francisco Giants
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The Giants have their ace on the mound tonight in Pittsburgh.Tim Lincecume takes the mound 2 days after his all-star start which served as nothing more than his bullpen work.The Giants have won over 80% of his starts when they are entering off a loss.Lincecum has been nothing less than spectacular this year with a stellar 2.22 road era.In his last 3 starts his era is an incredible 1.19.For the Pirates its lefty P.Malholm.In his last 3 starts he has not fared nearly as well as his hard throwing counter part.Malholm has a 5.19 era over his last three.The Pirates have really struggled scoring of late.Over their last 7 games they were hitting just .187 and averaging 2.6 runs per game.Those stats do not figure to improve tonight.The Pirates are just 3-10 on Fridays compared to the Giants 10-4 mark.Pittsburgh has started July losing 9 of the first 11 games.The Giants are 3-1 after allowing 10 or more runs.Finally to tighten this play up with another cutting edge system.We play against home dogs off a road dog loss that scored 2 or less runs,if tonight's opponent is off a home favored loss and scored 4 runs or less.These home dogs have lost 17 of 20 times in the above system.For the Friday night late phone play its the release of the 5 Unit MLB Revenge Game of the Year.Backed with a lethal 18-1 system that wins by nearly 4 runs per game.Our side will be super motivated for this one.For the free play take the San Francisco Giants.
Bob Harvey
Colorado Rockies -144
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I'm a firm believer in the old adage: "if it isn't broke, don't fix it". That's why we're heading back to San Diego for Friday night's free play on Ubaldo Jiminez and the Rockies.
Last night things went perfect for Colorado backers as the Rockies rolled to a 10-1 victory as Aaron Cook earned his 9th win and Seth Smith and Clint Barmes both homered. San Diego has now lost eight of its last nine games and outside of a 10-4 victory over San Francisco in the final game before the all-star break they've struggled to score averaging almost 2.5 runs per game. That won't get it done.
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Colorado is now 30-13 since Jim Tracy took over as manager and they've been a real cash cow especially on the road. The Rockies are 6th best in the majors with a 25-22 record and +979 units.
On the flip side San Diego doesn't have much going for it right now. The Padres are 8-22 in their last 30 games and 36-53 overall. They've played better at home posting a 23-21 record but the problem is scoring. They average just 3.7 runs per game. San Diego ranks 30th in runs per game, batting average and OPS.
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Colorado is 6-3 on the season against San Diego and has taken two out of three games in American's finest city.
The Rockies are now eight games behind the first-place Dodgers and just a game and a half behind the wild-card leading Giants.
Greg Daraban
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San Francisco at Pittsburgh
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Would expect a bit of a let down as Lincecum comes off the All Star start.Go high on the scoring. Maholm 6-4 does get run support and he gives it up 4.34
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Take SF/Pit Over 3 Stars
Red Dog Sports
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Detroit at NY Yankees
Play: Under 9.5
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Burnett has an ERA of 1.77 with 0 overs and 3 unders in his last 3 starts. French starts for the Tigers and his ERA is 2.45. The Tigers have 34 overs and 51 unders this season. Look for an under on Friday night.
Nelly
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Minnesota at Texas
Play Under
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The Ballpark at Arlington has a reputation as one of best hitter's parks in baseball and the Rangers are perceived as a slugging club with lousy pitching. Something is different this season however as the Rangers have become one of the ultimate 'under' teams in baseball this season. For the season the 'under' is 52-32-3 in Texas games including 27-16-2 at home. Minnesota has been an extreme 'under' team on the road with the 'under' going 28-11-2 as the offense is not nearly as productive. Glen Perkins battled illness in his last start and it showed as he labored through a mediocre outing. Perkins excelled in his previous two starts however, both on the road, allowing two runs in 14 innings. The 'under' is 4-1 in Perkins road starts this season and he owns a very solid strikeout to walk ratio. Vicente Padilla has had success against the Twins with a 2.63 career ERA in the match-up. This season Padilla has allowed three or fewer runs in eight of his last ten starts and he has allowed just three home runs in that span. The 'under' is 10-5 overall in his starts this season and Texas has not provided great recent run support with just a .243 team batting average over the last ten games. Both bullpens have had rough stretches this season but in the last ten games the Twins own a 2.83 bullpen ERA and the Rangers own a 2.27 bullpen ERA so both teams have locked down the late innings.
Jimmy The Moose
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Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals
Prediction: Chicago Cubs
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The Cubs have won 3 of their last 4 games. In their last 6 games as a favorite they are 5-1. In their last 19 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400 the Cubs are 14-5. Chicago has won 7 of Zambarano's last 9 starts as a favorite. In his 8 starts vs. NL East opponents the Cubs are 7-1. The Nationals are 15-44 in their last 59 games overall. In their last 20 games as a home dog they are 6-14. Washington has lost 4 of Olsen's last 5 starts. The Cubs have won Zambarano's last 4 starts vs. Washington. The Nationals are 4-10 in the last 14 meetings. Play on the Chicago Cubs -.
Marc Lawrence
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Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Seattle Mariners
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The Mariners take on the Indians in Game Two of this four game series tonight when they send ace right hander Felix Hernandez to the mound at Progressive Field in Cleveland. Hernandez enters tonight game in dominating current KW form with 6 walks and 25 strikeouts in his last three starts. He's also 6-0 in his last six team starts, including 5-0 in his last five road team starts. With the Tribe off a win last night. look for Hernandez to improve to 10-3 in his last 13 team starts on Fridays here tonight.
DAVE COKIN
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PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES / FLORIDA MARLINS
Take PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
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The Phillies went into the break hot and stayed that way with a convincing 4-0 win over the Marlins Thursday night. Cole Hamels has been very erratic, but with the Phils in great form, tonight's price seems pretty reasonable. I'll back the Phillies to top the Marlins again.
JIM FEIST
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MINNESOTA TWINS / TEXAS RANGERS
Take MINNESOTA TWINS
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Minnesota is only 4 out and comes in after taking 2 of 3 to the White Sox before the break. This offense is 10th in baseball and starter Glen Perkins doesn't walk anyone, and he's been hot, on a 2-1 run his last three starts with a 3.44 ERA. He loves facing Texas, at 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA against them. Tired Texas just lost 3 of 4 games to Seattle, winding up a 7-game trip. A great spot for the talented road dog. Play the Twins.
Nick Parsons
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Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics
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A great value play on the home team here; Angels starter Joe Saunders (8-5, 4.65 ERA) will try to put aside his poor finish to the first half of the season. Saunders went 0-1 with an 11.57 ERA in his last three outings, giving up five runs over five innings last Friday in a 10-6 victory over the New York Yankees. Trevor Cahill has also struggled for the A's, however Oakland is an above average 7-6 (+1.2 units) as a home dog of +100 to +125. Play on OAKLAND!
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Play on: Oakland
LT Profits Sports Group
Rockies / Padres
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This posted total seems very low when you consider that Josh Geer has a 5.79 ERA in 15starts and Ubaldo Jimenez has been rather erratic lately. Go Over the low total at Petco here.
As we have stated a couple of times, posted totals this low are usually reserved for when two star pitchers face other, and while Ubaldo Jimenez of the Colorado Rockies may barely fit the bill, Josh Geer of the San Diego Padres simply does not.
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Geer is 1-4 with a 5.79 ERA in 15 starts in his first full season as a Major League starter. Furthermore, after showing some improvement for a while, he regressed again in his last start when he was roughed up for six earned runs in just 4.2 innings by the normally light-hitting San Francisco Giants. Geer was also hit hard the last time he faced the Rockies, as they reached him for six runs (five earned) in 6.2 innings.
Now Jimenez does have a nice 3.81 ERA despite his 6-9 record, but he has been rather inconsistent lately, alternating Quality Starts and non-quality outings in his last seven starts, putting him in line for a shaky outing tonight. More importantly, the Padres got to Jimenez for six earned runs in only 3.2 innings the last time he faced them here in Petco Park.
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There are simply to many question marks for both of these starters for us not to go Over this very low total tonight.
Pick: Rockies / Padres Over 7½
Jr Tips
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RED SOX vs. BLUE JAYS
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Clay Buchholz, the young right-hander will get another chance to pitch the Boston Red Sox on Friday. Buhholz gets his first start as he went 2-9 with a 6.75 ERA, losing his last seven decisions inb 2008 before getting sent to Triple-A.Buchholz has spent all of this year in the minors with a 7-2 record and 2.36 ERA with just 67 hits allowed in 99 innings. He will face the Bluejays Ricky Romero (7-3, 3.00 ERA) who has been stellar for a banged-up Blue Jays rotation. The left-hander is 4-0 with a 2.28 ERA in his last six starts although Romero struggled in his lone start against Boston, allowing five runs in four innings of an 8-2 loss May 31st. He walked five and gave up home runs to Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis which was the Red Sox's only win in a three-game series at Rogers Centre.The Blue Jays (44-46) have lost 12 of their last 15. Boston is a good underdog tonight as they crushed Romero when they faced him last time. Boston's young pitcher who started out fast in the Majors with a no-hitter has his first chance to get back in the bigs which will bring out a good performance.
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TAKE BOSTON+120
Rocketman
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LAA Angels vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: LAA Angels
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LA Angels are now 49-37 overall this year while Oakland comes in with a 37-49 overall record this season. Oakland is 22-41 in July the past 3 years. Oakland is 14-32 this year when playing against a team with a winning record. LA Angels have won 4 in a row heading into tonight. Oakland is scoring only 3.8 runs per game against left handed starters this year and their batting average is only .227. Joe Saunders is 8-5 overall this year. Trevor Cahill is 0-3 with an 11.37 ERA his last 3 starts. Saunders is 7-2 with a 3.77 ERA overall vs Oakland since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on the LA Angels tonight!