Tom Freese
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Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics
Prediction: Over
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Los Angels starter Joe Saunders has more walks than strikeouts in his last 3 starts. The Angels are 8-0 OVER in the last starts made by Saunders. The Angels are 6-1-1 OVER off a win and they are 16-5-2 OVER when the Total is 9.0 to 10.5. Oakland starter Trevor Cahill has more walks than strikeouts in his last 3 starts. Cahill has allowed 19 runs in his last 12.2 innings of work. The Athletics are 4-0 OVER when Cahill pitches Game 2 of a series. PLAY ON 'OVER' (Cahill vs. Saunders)
IndianCowboy
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Take the Toronto Bluejays -120 over the Boston Redsox
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It is so tough for a pitcher to come back from being away from the game quite some time. For Clay Buchholz, it has been about eleven months since his lsat start which was back on on August 20th. Although I do think Clay gets it together and helps the Redsox in a big way down the road, it is just incredibly tough for a pitcher to just to gel back into the groove. Tack on the fact this is an important division game for the Jays as well, and this could yield a tough game for Clay. Romero has been solid as well as he is 4-0 over his last 6 starts. Romero picked up a ND in his last start despite pitching well as he gave up 3 runs in his last 8 innings. Unfortunately for Romero, the Jays ended up losing the contest 3-4 in the end. I expect Romero to continue pitching well in this division tilt as he has put together 8 straight quality starts and this is just a tough arena to throw Clay into for his first start - but the sooner the better is what the Sox feel. I expect the public to pile on thinking that this is great value with the Redsox as a dog, but I think they might take it up the chin a bit here which explains why the Jays are favored here despite the Redsox's success this year. The Blue Jays are 5-1 over his last 6 starts at home and the Redsox are 1-10 over Buchholz's last 11 road starts.
VEGAS EXPERTS
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Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds
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The last time Reds starter Bronson Arroyo faced the Milwaukee Brewers he last just one inning after he allowed nine runs on seven hits in a 15-3 Reds loss. Arroyo has not been sharp at home this season as he has a 6.37 ERA in nine starts. Brewers starter Jeff Suppan has done the same, but he pitches much better on the road. On the year he has a 7-3 TSR in 10 road starts and an ERA of 3.63. Suppan also has a 13-8 TSR as an road underdog over the past two seasons. Go with Milwaukee.
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Play on: Milwaukee
Vernon Croy
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Take the Boston Red Sox on the Moneyline
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The Red Sox are the overall superior team here Friday night so we are getting solid value going against a Blue Jays team that is just 9-19 against division opponents this season. The Red Sox are 22-9 against division opponents this season and they are a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Red Sox are 19-8 in their last 27 games against a lefty starter and the Blue Jays are just 1-6 in their last 7 games as a favorite including 0-5 in their last 5 games when favored by -110 to -150. The Red Sox are 8-3 in their last 11 games against the Blue Jays and I look for Clay Buchholz to have a solid start in his first outing of the season. Ricky Romero (7-3, 3.00 ERA) was hit hard in his only outing against the Red Sox this season allowing 6 hits and 2 homeruns in just 4 innings and I look for the Red Sox to hit him hard again tonight. Take the Boston Red Sox Friday night.
John Ryan
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New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Atlanta as they host the Mets set to start at 7:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 33-10 making 21.9 units since 1997. Play against road teams with a good OBP >=.340 facing a good NL starting pitcher sporting a WHIP=1.250 to 1.300 and with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 3 or less batters per start. Braves starter Jurrgens could easily have 12 or maybe even 13 wins if the Braves would show some run support. They certainly will get enough runs for him tonight knowing that Pelfry is the opposing starter and the Mets are just playing very poorly right now and there is no reason to believe that type fo play will change anytime soon. Braves third baseman Chipper Jones is 4 for 13 with two homers lifetime against Pelfrey. Jones, batting .330 in his career versus the Mets, had the go-ahead RBI single in the seventh inning yesterday. Mets are just 12-29 (-18.4 Units) against the money line in road games versus teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. Pelfry has solid stats over his last 3 starts, but the 3rd to last start was an excellent one where he allowed ZERO ER in 7 IP against Milwaukee. Since then he has allowed 7 ER in 10 innings pitched. Take Atlanta.
Matt Fargo
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Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers
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Milwaukee grabbed game one of this series last night making it four straight wins against the Reds and six of the last seven in the season series. This is the time of year that we separate the contenders from the pretenders and I believe that the Brewers are the former while the Reds are the latter. Cincinnati has done a decent job of hanging around but its pitching cannot hold up and it will be evident tonight. Bronson Arroyo is having a tough year despite putting up a winning record at 9-8. He has a 5.38 ERA on the season to go along with a 1.48 WHIP and those numbers inflate even more at home. He has a 6.37 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in nine home outings and one of those includes a disaster against Milwaukee back in May. He allowed nine runs on seven hits and three walks in just one inning and that type of performance will stay with you when facing the same team again. It has been an up and down season for Jeff Suppan and his best work has come on the road. He is 4-1 with a 3.63 ERA in 10 road starts with Milwaukee going 7-3 in those games. Compare that to Miller Park, where Suppan is 1-5 with a 6.12 ERA and a .322 opponents' average in eight starts with the Brewers going 2-5. The Brewers are 5-0 in Suppan?s last five starts as an underdog of +110 to +150 while the Reds are 0-5 in Arroyo?s last five starts against a team with a winning record. 3* Milwaukee Brewers
ALEX SMART
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Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland Athletics
PICK: Over 9
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Joe Saunders the LA Angels starting pitcher against the Oakland Athletics is in struggling form. The hurler has allowed a ridiculous 11 home runs in his last six trips to the hill. He has allowed 18 runs in his last three outings overall and owns a ugly looking 1.68 home runs per nine innings average this season. Those are some nasty numbers. The Angels pitching staff as whole have struggled during this campaign, ranking 26 th in MLB , allowing opposing offenses to average 4.74 RPG via a .277 BA for average. The Halos only saving grace has been an offense that has been explosive that continues to find ways to score even without Vlad Guerrero , Tori Hunter out of the lineup . Meanwhile, the A's starter Trevor Cahill (5-8, 4.67), is also struggling as is evident by a current 0-3 run that seen him garner a massive 11.37 ERA in his last three outings. Considering the pitching matchup Everything points to this being a high scoring tilt. Final notes & Key Trends: Over is 8-0 in Saunders' last 8 starts overall. In Cahills L/3 starts opposing offenses have piled 31 runs on the board.... Play OVER
Doc's Sports
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San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates
PICK: San Francisco Giants
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One of the few times that we would consider laying this big a number on the road. But, with Tim Lincecum (10-2, 2.33) on the mound, the confidence builds. In his last outing he carried a no-hit bid into the seventh inning. The Pirates (38-50) are on track for a MLB record 17th straight losing season.
Wunderdog
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Connecticut at San Antonio
Pick: Connecticut +4.5
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It is pretty evident that what this Silver Stars team was a year ago, they are not this season. They compiled the league's top mark at 24-10, but enter here at just 6-6, and have already dropped as many home games as they did all of last season. The Sun started slowly, but have turned the corner and have covered six of their last nine games. They have suffered four of their losses by five points or less and are rarely out of any game. The offense which was stagnent early in the season has gained consistency, and the points are flowing freely. The Silver Stars haven't been the defensive stopping unit from a year ago, and have become vulnerable to a competent team like the Sun. I'm going with Connecticut here.
Glenn McGrew
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Angels at A's
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LA is still a dangerous team, with their balanced offense, aggressive base running and pitching depth. Ervin Santana got the win last night over Oakland, 6-2. They have won 4 in a row. Now Joe Saunders faces a light-hitting Oakland lineup, a team on a 6-12 run. Saunders is 7-2 in his career against Oakland and 2-0 this season with a 1.35 ERA. Oakland starter Trevor Cahill is 0-3 with an 11.37 ERA his last three starts. Play the Angels.
THE SPREAD
Philadelphia Phillies at Florida Marlins, 7:10PM ET
NOLASCO is 17-9 (+11.3 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
NOLASCO is 28-18 (+13.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
NOLASCO is 23-13 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
NOLASCO is 17-7 (+13.7 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
PHILADELPHIA is 152-111 (+16.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 23-11 (+10.4 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 27-15 (+14.8 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 86-72 (+27.3 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Friday since 1997.
Pick: Florida
Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers, 8:05PM ET
PADILLA is 29-15 (+18.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
PADILLA is 25-15 (+13.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
PADILLA is 19-12 (+9.8 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
PADILLA is 15-7 (+11.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
MINNESOTA is 11-3 (+8.9 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday this season.
MINNESOTA is 91-74 (+13.1 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
Pick: Minnesota
Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals, 8:10PM ET
TAMPA BAY is 3-0 (+3.0 Units) against KANSAS CITY this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.0 Units)
JAMES SHIELDS vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
SHIELDS is 5-0 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 2.50 and a WHIP of 0.833.
His team's record is 5-0 (+5.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-2. (-0.1 units)
ZACK GREINKE vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
GREINKE is 0-2 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 3.60 and a WHIP of 1.399.
His team's record is 1-3 (-2.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-2. (-0.4 units)
Pick: Kansas City
King Creole
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BOS (+115) vs TOR
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This is a series in which the Red Sox have DOMINATED on a recent note. We're talking 'Whippin Boys' here... as Boston is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings vs the AL East rivals. The Blue Jays limp into the second half on a current run of 1-6 in their last 7 roles as a FAVORITE. So you do NOT want to be laying any juice on this team these days. The Jays are 1-5 at home when the OU line is 7-8.5 runs and 1-5 in their last 6 games vs right-handed starters.
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Boston takes care of business in their division. They've gone 21-7 in their last 28 games vs fellow division opponents. They also know how to beat up on the Southpaws, going 20-8 in their last 28 games vs lefties. Additionally, they're a great team playing with rest as they are 38-13 following an OFF-day. And finally, they are very profitable in the Underdog role... going a PERFECT 4-0 when installed as a dog.
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Clay Buchholtz makes his 2009 season debut for the Sox, but he's in GREAT form as he has dominated the International League thus far. The 24-year-old right-hander is having a breakout season with the PawSox, going 7-2 with a 2.36 ERA in 17 appearances (16 starts). In 99 innings this season, opponents were hitting just .188 against Buchholz, who has registered 89 strikeouts, 30 walks and tossed one complete game. He was named the International League pitcher of the week ONCE in May and ONCE in June.
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Ricky Romero of the Jays has already face the Sox once in the 2009 season. In that game (May 31st), he couldn't make it to the 5th inning... allowed 5 earned runs (ERA of 11.25)... 6 hits and 5 walks (WHIP of 2.75)... and 2 home runs.
Craig Trapp
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Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Chicago Cubs
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CHC -128: Yesterday Craig's HR Top play of the week was in this same matchup as CHI easily won over a horrible WASH club. Today we will ride the Cubs again as they send there up and down star Zambrano to the mound. Big Z has not won back to back starts all year and today will break that streak. The rest over the break will really help Z and the Cubs. On the other side WASH has fired there manager and have seen the same results in game 1 of series. This team has major issues and a manager can't fix them. The Nationals have lost 7 of last 8 games and just don't have the talent to compete with a very good Cubs team. On the mound Stammen has been up and down but has been horrible in his last three home starts. A close game early turns in to a route after the 6th inning!! SCORE CHC 6 - WASH 1
BEN BURNS
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Tampa Bay Rays @ Kansas City Royals
PICK: Under 8.5
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Bannister goes instead of Greinke and that's given us a higher over/under line to work with. I feel that provides us with some value on the 'under.'
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While his numbers aren't as impressive as Greinke's, Bannister also had a very solid first half. He's been particularly good at home. He's 4-3 here with a 3.06 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Bannister went 7 2/3 innings vs. Boston in his most recent start. That game finished with a score of 1-0 and brought the 'under' to 3-1-3 his last seven starts. He's allowed two earned runs or less in each of the last three of those starts, recording an outstanding 1.74 ERA during that stretch.
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Shields goes for the Rays and he's capable of dominating. Of course, the Royals know all about that. In five starts vs. KC, Shields has gone 5-0 with a stellar 2.50 ERA and 0.833 WHIP. This season's lone start vs. the Royals saw Shields allow two runs over eight innings, recording eight K's without issuing a free pass. That game finished with a score of 3-2. Overall, Shields has seen the 'under' go 12-6-1 on the season, including 5-2-1 on the road.
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Including the pitcher's duel between Shields and Meche, the 'under' is 6-0-1 the last seven meetings between these teams. Consider the Under
TEDDY COVERS
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Tampa Bay Rays @ Kansas City Royals
PICK: Tampa Bay Rays
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To say that James Shields has owned the Kansas City Royals is something of an understatement. In five career starts against KC, Shields is 5-0 with a 2.50 ERA and a 32-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Shields is in excellent current form, with four quality starts in his last five trips to the hill. KC managed to score only four runs while getting swept by the defending AL champs in a three game series last month, hitting just .149 as a team against the Tampa Bay pitching staff. The Royals anemic offense was on full display right before the All Star break, shut out twice in three games at Fenway Park.
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On May 7th, Kansas City had a three game lead in the AL Central. However, since their 18-11 start, the Royals have gone 19-40, the worst record in the AL during that span. Tonight’s starter, Brian Bannister was bombed in his only appearance against the Rays this year, allowing eight earned runs in just 3.2 innings of work. In two starts against Tampa last year, Bannister went 0-2 with a 6.97 ERA. The Rays hit .341 against him in those two outings. It’s surely worth noting that Bannister’s career ERA rises from 4.17 pre-All Star break to 5.37 post All Star break in his four big league seasons. Tampa has the better starter, the better bullpen, the better defense and the better lineup, making this a relatively cheap price to lay with the vastly superior ballclub.
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2* Take Tampa Bay.