Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday July, 20

Marc Lawrence

Chicago Cubs at St Louis Cardinals
Prediction: Chicago Cubs

When the Cubs and Cardinals meet in the opener of this three game series in St. Louis Friday evening Chicago will send white-hot Ryan Dempster to the hill against Kyle Lohse at Busch Stadium. Dempster takes the mound working on a 33-inning consecutive scoreless skein knowing he owns a super-skinny 0,95 ERA away from Wrigley Field this season. He's also cashed each of his last three starts in this series and 8 of his last 10 road starts during the month of July. With Lohse just 3-11 in his last 14 teams starts during July, look to back the live dog here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Cubs.

Rob Vinciletti

San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: San Francisco Giant

The Phillies fit a negative system here that plays against home favorites off a road dog loss and scored 4 or less runs with 10 or more men left on base, vs an opponent off a road dog loss that scored 2 or less runs. Dogs have cashed 75% in this system. The Giants have won 5 of the last 7 here in Philly. Tonight they have Tim Lincecum on the mound as he looks to put together a solid 2nd half after his 1st half struggles. He heads to Philly knowing he has won his last 2 starts there, and has allowed just 5 earned runs in 26 innings there the last 4 years. This does not bode well for a Phillies team that has lost the last 5 at home vs right handers. They will have Vance Worley making the start and he has lost 3 of his last 4 here while allowing 11 earned runs in 23 innings. Look for Lincecum and the Giants to take game one.

Ben Burns

San Francisco vs. Philadelphia
Pick: Philadelphia

If one hadn't been paying attention to this season's results, one might see the Lincecum vs. Worley matchup and assume that the Giants would have a big advantage on the mound. That's hardly the case this year though. In fact, Worley has MUCH better numbers than Lincecum.

Worley is off back to back quality starts, most recently limiting Colorado to two runs through 6 2/3 innings. He's allowed three earned runs or less in eight of his last nine starts. He went at least six complete innings in seven of those.

For the season, Worley has a solid 3.47 ERA. For his career, he's 9-4 with a 2.93 ERA at home. He's also 2-0 with a stellar 2.25 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in two career starts vs. the Giants.

Lincecum checks in at 3-10 with a terrible 5.93 ERA. In 10 road starts, he's 1-6 with a brutal 9.00 ERA and 1.81 WHIP. He lost his lone start vs. the Phillies this season, giving up five runs through six innings - a fairly typical outing for the 2012 version of "The Freak."

True, Lincecum is off a gem last time out. And, given his past, its possible that he could follow it up with another strong game. (Clearly, that's what SF fans are hoping!) However, keep in mind that the last time he pitched a good game, Lincecum responded by allowing seven and six runs in his next two starts, losing 9-3 and 13-2.

Worley's lone complete game of his career came against these same Giants, a 7-2 home win last July. He's been far more consistent than Lincecum. That being the case, I believe the price is more than reasonable. Consider Philadelphia.

Freddy Wills

Chicago Cubs vs. St.Louis Cardinals
Play: Chicago Cubs

Ryan Dempster has been pitching like he's from another planet these days posting an ERA of 0 over his last three starts. Actually he has not given up a run in 5 straight starts and I may be a little late here to start backing him, but the fact of the matter is he did it against good hitting teams and his team right now is red hot winning 8 out of 11 games. I think the magic continues the bulk of his struggles against the Cardinals have come with either Pujols or Berkman have been in the line up he's held Holliday in check and Jay/Furcal/Freese are a combined 12-69 against him. He really has not been doing anything different from years past so I do expect this party to end, but he's got better control over his pitches by throwing his fastball less and his slider more.

The Cubs are 7-3 in their last 10 vs. RH starter and Kyle Lohse has had more troubles with the Cubs than any other team it seems. IN 145 AB the Cubs have .359 average and a .919 OPS. Brian Lahair has learned quickly from the long success that David DeJesus and Alfonso Soriano have had against Lohse over their careers. Lohse does have a 2.80 ERA overall but that's nothing compared to Dempster's 0.95 ERA during road starts. Lohse also has a 4.23 xFIP as he is only striking out 5.15 guys per 9. Cardinals have struggled on Friday nights going 1-10 in their last 11. I think the Cubbies are just playing better baseball and they are a confident bunch right now.

Notable Hot Starters:
Justin Verlander (2-1, 0.74 WHIP, 1.96 ERA)
Ricky Nolasco2-1, 1.31 WHIP, 2.95 ERA)
Homer Bailey (3-0, 1.06 WHIP, 1.99 ERA)
Kyle Lohse (2-1, 1.18 WHIP, 2.66 ERA)
Tommy Milone (2-1, 1.33 WHIP, 2.00 ERA)
Drew Promeranz (1-2, 0.87 WHIP, 2.60 ERA)

Cold Starter Of The Day:
Though this is not going to be any sort of a sports pick that is backed by our sports monitor we still like to give out the cold pitcher with the best shot at winning because often times there is a lot of value. Today's pitcher is Tommy Hanson for no other reason than the odds are great odds considering the success the Braves have had against Steven Strasburg who in 77 AB they carry a .299 average and a .799 OPS. Not bad for a team that are +141 under dogs tomorrow night. Hanson posts a 6.05 ERA over his last three starts, but he has a 3.00 ERA on the road this year.

Notable Cold Starters:
Tim Lincecum (1-2, 1.70 WHIP, 7.98 ERA)
Johan Santana (1-2, 1.58 WHIP, 6.62 ERA)
James Shields (2-1, 1.89 WHIP, 6.63 ERA)
Nick Blackburn (2-1, 1.79 WHIP, 10.29 ERA)

Hollywood Sports

Montreal vs Hamilton
Pick: Hamilton

Lay the points with Hamilton versus Montreal in the Canadian Football League. Montreal (2-1) rallied to defeat Calgary last week by a 33-32 score as a 7-point favorite -- but the fact that lost the first down battle by a 24-15 margin is an ominous sign for this club moving forward. After their two straight seasons where they won the Grey Cup, the Alouettes may still be a bit overrated despite their first round exit in the playoffs last season. Montreal has now failed to meet point spread expectations in 9 of their last 10 games. Now they go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games. Additionally, the Alouettes have failed to cover the spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. And Montreal has failed to cover the spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings with the Tiger-Cats. Hamilton (1-2) comes off a 36-27 win versus Toronto last week -- and they have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. The Tiger-Cats have also covered the spread in 5 straight games played in the month of July. With the benefit of home field advantage, look for Hamilton to cover the point spread here like they did in the East Division Semifinals versus the Alouettes last year. Lay the points with Hamilton.

Jim Feist

Rangers vs Angels
Pick: Under

The LA Angels benefit greatly from their pitchers park and what better pitcher to send to the mound tonight than Jered Weaver. Weaver not only is 11-1 this season with a sensational 2.26 ERA and 0.945 WHIP, but he's been amazing at home. In Angel Stadium Weaver is a perfect 6-0 in seven starts with a 0.58 ERA and 0.557 WHIP. It just doesn't get more dominating than those home numbers. Derek Holland will start for the Rangers and while he's having a decent season at 6-4, it's not up to his standards. However, Holland's numbers have been excellent away from home with a 4-1 mark and 2.58 ERA. Holland has won his last three starts and allowed just six total runs over 19 innings. Weaver has also been excellent his last three starts, shutting out two of those opponents. Two excellent pitchers in a pitchers ball park. Sounds like an under for me.

SPORTS WAGERS

Baltimore +123 over CLEVELAND

Miguel Gonzalez has finally reached the majors after a long and difficult road. Gonzalez was originally in the Angels organization from ’05 thru ’08 before being picked up by the Red Sox. He missed all of ’08 and ’09 due to arm issues and Boston eventually released him at the end of the ’11 campaign. Baltimore scooped him up and he immediately opened some eyes in the minors when he allowed just 10 hits in 30 innings. Since his call-up, he’s made two starts and pitched long relief in his three other appearances. Gonzalez has struck out 21 in 24 frames. He owns an 86-92 mph fastball that he locates precisely to all areas of the strike zone. He mixes in an outstanding slider and average change up. The knock has been control. He’s issued 12 walks in his 24 innings but that’s something that he did not exhibit in the minors, where he displayed very good command. Expect the walk totals to decrease and with that Gonzalez offers up some pretty nice value opposing Derek Lowe. We keep seeing examples of pitchers that outpitch their skills eventually getting exposed. Derek Lowe is among that group. He has 35 walks and 39 strikeouts in 108 innings. You would be hard-pressed to find a pitcher with a lower K rate than Lowe. He has eight wins already and that would project to be about 15 or 16 wins at season’s end. Guys like Clayton Kershaw, C.C. Sabathia and Justin Verlander win 16 games. Guys like Derek Lowe do not and that makes him a prime fade candidate.

San Fran +123 over PHILADELPHIA

Despite a 3.47 ERA, Vance Worley offers some reason for pause. His July numbers trended the wrong way. In three July starts covering 16 innings, Worley allowed 26 hits and 11 earned runs. His xERA went from 3.64 to 4.49 and his groundball rate in those three July starts went from 49% to 47% to 39%. Perhaps the bone chips in his elbow, which landed him on the DL in May, are acting up? Worley looks to be a pitcher in peril and the Phillies offense, ranked 25th in runs scored in July, is unlikely to bail him out. Tim Lincecum is 1-6 on the road with an ERA of 9.00 and that’s just one of those odd statistics in baseball that doesn’t make any sense. Lincecum’s xERA is a sound 3.77 and that’s more than five runs lower than his actual ERA. A discrepancy like that is rarely seen and while it doesn’t guarantee a thing, it assures us that Lincecum still has the skills to thrive. A 61% strand rate hasn't done him any favors. His latest outing (8 IP, 0 ER, 11 Ks) was easily his most impressive but it also significantly shortened his buy-low window. We’ll gladly look to take advantage of that here, as there is still a lot of value left in Tim Lincecum’s arm.

Scott Spreitzer

Philadelphia Phillies -127

Tim Lincecum received a bit of a warning before his most recent start and responded with one of his best outings of the season. The Giants' righthander "punched out" 11 Houston batters, allowing just 6 base runners and no earned runs in 8 innings. But that start came following the all-star break, at home, and against the hapless Astros. Lincecum has been a frequent "go against" for me this season when he toes the road rubber. He's 1-6 in 10 road starts and saddled with a horrible 9.00 ERA, 1.81 WHIP, and a .307 BAA. The Giants have been popped for 75 runs in those 10 starts, an average of 7.5 rpg allowed. And believe it or not, the once dependable innings-eater has lasted a full 6 innings in just one of his 2012 road outings. The Phillies have been playing better baseball as key players return to health. They were an out away from a 5th straight win in their last outing, leading the Dodgers 3-1 in the 10th. Los Angeles scored the tying run with two outs, before eventually winning the game in 12 innings. Philly will send Vance Worley to the hill tonight, looking to stay perfect against SFO. Worley has shut down the Giants in his two previous starts against them (2.25 ERA & 0.75 WHIP). I expect Worley to receive decent help at the plate with his team averaging 5.11 rpg in night action against righthanders. And again, until "Skinny Timmy" can show me he still "has the goods" on the road, I'll continue to look to play against him. After tossing 114 pitches last time out, Lincecum may be facing velocity problems that have plagued him all season. I'm backing the Phillies on Friday night.

CFL Predictions

Eskimos / Lions Under 48.5 & BC Lions -7.5

Edmonton is being applauded for their 42-10 blowout win over Winnipeg last week but what has been forgotten about that result is how the Eskimos got those 42 points! 24 of them came from either Winnipeg turnovers or were setup by great field position from strong kick returns. The betting markets are not dissecting last week’s game accurately and as a result, we are left with residual value to fade Edmonton and their still problematic offense with a pair of wagers on BC and the Under tonight.

I didn’t upgrade Edmonton’s offense one iota after last week. The problems for the Eskimos on that side of the football are still there. QB Stephen Jyles was a mediocre 15-27 passing for 262 yards with 1 TD and 2 INT’s last week. That isn’t the kind of stat line that would impress anyone but it was clouded by Edmonton taking advantage of a Winnipeg team that wasn’t ready to play last week. The Eskimos lack a capable starting QB, their running game had been silenced prior to last week and now they are losing key weapons in their receiving corps by the week. First, it was Adarius Bowman injured and out indefinitely and now it’s Greg Carr who got injured last week and will not play Friday night in BC. That leaves one viable and experienced option at WR for Edmonton and that is Fred Stamps. It’s worth noting that Stamps and Jyles have yet to find any chemistry and all of these issues on offense are terrible news facing an angry defending champion BC Lions team poised to bounce back with a strong showing at home after losing their first game of the season last week.

Edmonton’s defense has carried them to their 2-1 start this season but this will be their toughest challenge to date going up against a BC offense led by Grey Cup MVP QB Travis Lulay and an offense that voiced displeasure about a rare poor performance against Saskatchewan last week and I expect the Eskimos to yield more points to the Lions than the 15, 17 and 10 points they allowed to their first three opponents: Toronto, Saskatchewan and Winnipeg.

BC has already won both of their home games this season and they are an impressive 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss. BC owned the season series in 2011 sweeping Edmonton in all 4 games winning by convincing scores of 36-1, 33-24, 29-20 and 40-23 and that was when Edmonton had Ricky Ray at QB (a better option than any QB currently on the Eskimos roster) and a healthy group of receivers. Neither of which the Eskimos currently have. Both the spot and the matchups work heavily in BC’s favor in a game they should bring their best effort en route to another convincing win over Edmonton in a game that should also stay Under the posted total.

Bryan Power

Miami vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh

I feel that that this is a great price on the Pirates, who are 29-14 at PNC Park and have a scheduling advantage from being off yesterday while the Marlins lost at Wrigley Field to the Cubs. Pittsburgh is coming off back to back victories over the lowly Rockies and beating up on a Miami team that is -11.2 units for the season and averaging just 3.8 runs per game should not be an issue.

Miami has had Pittsburgh's number in past years, but as we've seen this is not the same Pirates team. It should be noted that Pittsburgh was in contention for the division title at this same point in the season last year before falling way off the pace. But at no point in 2011 were they 11 games over .500 like they are now. They have also won 18 of their last 22 at home.

Miami is batting just .227 with runners in scoring position, second worst in baseball, and is just .162 in that situation the last 10 games, including 1 for 7 yesterday. Pirates starter Kevin Correia is going for a career best fourth straight win here. Marlins starter Ricky Nolasco allowed four runs in less than six innings in a loss to Washington his last time out. The Pirates have all the momentum here.

Steve Janus

Cincinnati Reds -113

I'm going to back the Reds at home against the Brewers tonight. Milwaukee just took the final two games of a 3-game set at home against the Cardinals. All three games in that series were decided by 1-run. Look for the Brewers to suffer a bit of a letdown heading to the road. They are just 18-24 away from home this season and 6-14 at Cincinnati over the last three seasons.

The Reds come into this series on an absolute tear. While they split their 4-game set at home against the Diamondbacks, they have won 8 of their last 10 overall. The Reds are currently a .5 game ahead of the Pirates in the NL Central, and know they need to take care of business at home vs division opponents.

Adding even more value to this play is the fact that the Reds will send out one of the hottest starters in the game in Homer Bailey. In his last three starts, Bailey is 3-0 with a 1.99 ERA and 1.059 WHIP. Bailey is 0-5 in 10 career starts vs the Brewers. Normally that would be a good sign to take Milwaukee, but not today. Bailey is rolling and you can expect him to be as focused as he has been all season to get his first win against the Brewers.

Cincinnati is 6-1 in their last 7 Friday games, 8-2 in their last 10 games as a favorite, and 5-1 in their last 6 vs. National League Central!

DAVID BANKS

Dodgers / Mets Over 7.5

Both the Los Angeles Dodgers (49-44) and the New York Mets (47-45) are coning off of wins that snapped losing streaks, as the Dodgers ended a four-game losing streak vs. the Phillies on Wednesday and the Mets put the brakes on a six-game skid vs. the Nationals Thursday. The Dodgers are still only 2 games behind the San Francisco Giants while in second place in the National League West, but the Mets have slid to third place and seven games behind the Nationals in the East, although ay least yesterday's win kept them within sniffing distance. Each team is now looking to make it two straight on Friday night from Citi Field in Flushing, NY at 7:10 ET.

Johan Santana gets the ball for the Mets on Friday, and truth be told he has been very disappointing since he tossed the first no-hitter in Mets' history on June 1st. Santana has made seven starts since then and only three of them were Quality Starts, so perhaps the career high 134 pitches he threw that night took something out of his arm. Do not forget that Santana missed nearly two years following shoulder surgery, and after looking to have not missed a beat at the beginning of the year, it has been mostly downhill since that momentous night that in the long run may end up doing more harm than good. To be fair, perhaps Santana's best start since that outing came vs. these Dodgers in Los Angeles, where he allowed only three hits over eight scoreless innings. That came during the period when the Dodgers were not hitting a lick though when they were shut out five times in a six-game span, and the LA offense is a bit better now that Matt Kemp has come back since the All-Stat break. In fact, it was Kemp that hit the game-winning two-run homer in the 12th inning in the 5-3 win over Philadelphia on Wednesday. With that said, Santana has been sensational in his five career starts vs. the Dodgers, allowing a grand total of two runs in 35.2 innings!

The Dodgers counter with Aaron Harang, who has proven to be serviceable this year while going 6-5 with a solid 3.53 ERA, although he has had some battles with wildness with 45 walks against 82 strikeouts in 107 innings. Still, Harang has usually given Los Angeles a chance to win as he has allowed three earned runs or less in eight of his last nine starts and in 14 of his 18 starts this season. However, he does have rather drastic home vs. away splits as Harang is 2-2 with a nice 2.94 ERA and 1.13 WHIP at home compared to 4-3 with a 4.09 ERA and 1.60 WHIP when he takes his show on the road. One of his four non-quality outings this year came vs. these Mets in Dodger Stadium where he was touched up for five runs (four earned) on seven hits plus four walks in 5.2 innings. In fact, Harang has only one Quality Start in his last eight career appearances vs. New York, and he must now contend with a Mets' lineup hitting a good .261 vs. right-handed pitchers this year compared to just .244 vs. left-handers.

The Mets took three of the four games in Los Angeles to improve to 6-2 in the last eight head-to-head meetings. New York is also 5-1 in the last six meetings here in the Big Apple and the 'under' is 7-3 in the last 10 matchups regardless of the venue.

Kyle Hunter

San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies have been a disaster this year, but I like the value on them in this one. Tim Lincecum is nothing like his old self right now. Lincecum had a great outing last time, but that was against the Astros. Houston's lineup has made a lot of pitchers look good this year. On the road Lincecum has a horrible 9.00 ERA. The Phillies lineup is starting to get healthy, and I expect them to get to Lincecum early. Vance Worley is an underrated pitcher with a 3.47 ERA this year. Lincecum and the Giants are getting plenty of credit because of his past. I think the Phillies should be favored by quite a bit more. Take the Phillies.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

POWER ANGLE PLAY

ST LOUIS -145 over Chicago: Since June 25th the Cubs have been the best team in baseball, while the Cards are coming off a tough road trip that saw them lose 5 of 6 games and really struggle offensively. Today they will be taking on Ryan Dempster, who has tossed 33 scoreless innings in a row, but I believe he is due to be hit a little. Ryan has a 3-1 mark and an 0.95 ERA on the road this year, but his worst road outing of the year was here in which he allowed 4 ER's on 9 hits and a walk in 6 innings. Kyle Lohse has had a very nice year for the Cards so far, as he is 9-2 with a 2.80 ERA overall and 4-1 with a 2.78 ERA at home. Kyle has really been rolling of late posting a 2.11 ERA over his last 8 starts while not allowing more than 3 ER's over that stretch. The Cards offense has struggled of late, but they are now back home, when they average 4.93 rpg, while the Cubs average just 3.79 rpg on the road. St Louis doesn't want to keep dropping games in the standings and at home vs a pitcher that is due to be hit I say they will look to start righting their ship with a big win tonight. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Since 2006 the Cardinals are 20-3 as a home favorite of 140+ if they suffered a walk-off loss in their starters last start.

PHILADELPHIA -125 over San Francisco: The Phils have started out the 2nd half with a 4-2 mark and if they have any shot at getting back to the playoffs then they must have a good showing in this series to build some confidence as they move forward. Tim Lincecum gets the ball for the Giants and he has been bad this year. On the road Tim is 1-6 with a 9.00 ERA, while he is 0-3 with a 10.69 ERA in his last 4 starts. Now in those last 4 road starts his numbers are even worse than they sound, because he pitched in 4 parks (Pitt, Washington, Oakland and Seattle) that are all clearly pitcher's parks. Now he travels to Philly to take on a Phils team that is fully healthy and ready to make some statements in their own park. Vance Worley has not been great this year at 5-5, but he does have a solid 3.47 ERA and is 9-4 with a 2.93 ERA in his career in this park. Vance is also 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in 2 starts vs the Giants in his career. The Phils don't feel that they are out of it just yet. They have been playing better and have the pitching advantage on the mound. The Giants are 2-8 in Tim's road starts and they should be 2-10 after tonight.

Chicago/ Detroit Under 7.5: Google News Play. After a horrible showing in the All-Star game Justin Verlander showed that that was a fluke by allowing 0 ER's in 8 innings of a 4-0 win vs Baltimore. Justin has a skinny 1.61 EA at home and his home starts have averaged just 6 rpg. His solid numbers at home should continue tonight vs a Chicago team that is struggling offensively of late. The Sox average 4.3 rpg on the road this year, but in this last 6 on this trip they have put up just 2.5 rpg and have scored just 1 run in 3 of their last 4 games. When Justin is on the mound it seems as if the Tigers offense goes in to a shell. For the year they have averaged just 3.53 rpg in his starts, while at home they have put up just 3.5 rpg in his 8 starts, which compares to an overall home average of 4.61 rpg. Jake Peavy has struggled in his last 3 starts (4.43 ERA), but he has pitched well on the road this year with a 2.95 ERA, with his road starts averaging just 6 rpg. Jake has struggled somewhat vs the Tigers, but in his last 2 starts here he has allowed just 3 total ER's. Both pitchers will have good showings tonight as this game hits at most 5 runs.

LA ANGELS -143 over Texas: Google News Play. Jered weaver has been lights out at home this year, as he is 6-0 with an 0.68 ERA and an 0.56 WHIP. He has struggled in his last 2 starts vs the Rangers, but both were on the road and he is 7-0 with a 2.23 ERA in 12 homes starts vs Texas in his career. We also note that he had an embarrassing ESPN Sunday night loss vs the Rangers earlier in the year and has been chomping at the bit for some payback. Jered is also off a bad start vs the Yanks So that has him doubly upset as he gets ready to face a Rangers team that has averaged just 3.2 rpg in their last 5 games (all on road). Derek Holland has had a nice year and is 4-1 with a 2,58 ERA on the road, but in his last 3 trips here he has struggled with a 1-1 mark and a 7.13 ERA. The Halos are 8-0 in Jered's last 8 starts and that streak should continue here behind another solid home outing from their Ace.

POWER ANGLE FOR FRIDAY (9-8 -1.09 UNITS)

Since 2008 Arizona is 25-6 as a home favorite of 140+ in the first game of a series. Play on Arizona -176 over Houston.