Dave Price
NY Yankees -122
The Yankees went down yesterday, but they are 36-15 in their last 51 overall, 13-5 in their last 18 road games and 4-1 in their last 5 games following a loss. They have an excellent opportunity to bounce back tonight with Nova on the bump. The Yankees are 37-15 in Nova's last 52 starts, 20-6 in his last 26 road starts and 13-1 in his last 14 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. New York have also won 16 of the last 21 meetings in Oakland. Bet the Yankees.
Jeff Alexander
Cleveland Indians -127
The Orioles have lost 6 consecutive series openers. They are 4-10 in their last 14 games as an underdog and 3-13 in their last 16 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. They figure to be up against it tonight with the way Lowe has pitched at home. The veteran right-hander is 5-1 (6-2 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.86 in 8 home starts. The Indians are 22-6 in their last 28 series openers, 7-3 in their last 10 home games, 5-0 in Lowe's last 5 series-opening starts and 5-1 in his last 6 starts as a favorite. The Tribe has won 9 of the last 12 meeting overall and 32 of the last 43 at home. Take Cleveland.
Jack Jones
Detroit Tigers -168
The Detroit Tigers have a huge edge on the mound in this one. Justin Verlander won the 2011 AL Cy Young along with the 2011 AL MVP award last year, and he hasn't missed a beat this season. With the Tigers trailing the White Sox by 1.5 games for the AL Central lead, he'll cetainly be on top of his game tonight.
Verlander is on his way to another Cy Young award this year, going 10-5 with a 2.43 ERA and 0.931 WHIP in 19 starts. That includes 4-2 with a 1.61 ERA and 0.860 WHIP in eight home starts. In his last two starts against the White Sox, Verlander is 2-0 with a 0.63 ERA while allowing one earned run over 14 1/3 innings.
Jake Peavy is having a solid season for Chicago as well at 7-6 with a 3.12 ERA and 1.039 WHIP in 18 starts. But he's showed signs of wearing down of late, especially in his last start where he allowed six earned runs and 13 base runners over 7 innings at Kansas City. In his last two starts against the Tigers, Peavy has allowed nine earned runs, 19 base runners and three homers over 13 innings.
Verlander is 41-9 against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more over the last 3 seasons. Verlander is 11-0 against the money line in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 3 seasons. The White Sox are 0-4 in Peavy's last 4 road starts. Bet the Tigers Friday.
Jimmy Boyd
Detroit Tigers -1.5 +126
The Tigers are showing value on the run line with Verlander on the hill. The Tigers have won six of his last seven starts. Each of their last two, and four of their last five, wins with him on the mound have come by two runs or more.
Detroit has also won 10 of Verlander's last 11 starts versus the White Sox. Eight of those victories have come by at least two runs.
The White Sox have dropped five of Peavy's last six starts with each of the last three defeats coming by more than two runs. They have also lost four of his last five starts versus Detroit. Two of those losses have come by a minimum of two runs.
Lastly, we find that Detroit is 11-0 in Verlander's home starts versus good teams with a winning percentage of 54-62% since the beginning of the 2010 season. The Tigers have defeated these clubs by an average of 3.5 runs. Take the Tigers on the run line.
Ross King
New York Yankees vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: New York Yankees
NY Yankees are 11-2 in Oakland and 18-5 overall the last 3 seasons.NY Yankees are currently 12-3 on Fridays.NY Yankees are 21-11 versus left handed starters and 105-70 the last 3 seasons.NY Yankees are currently 38-20 versus teams with a winning record and versus teams with a winning record in the second half the last 3 seasons they are 127-97.Nova is 7-1 on the road and Milone is 5-1 at home.Take New York Yankees to even the series against the hottest team in July since they have been the hottest team all year may just be enough motivation to get us the freeplay victory.
Tony George
Royals / Twins Over 9.5
Two bad pitchers who both are struggling tonight in KC. Blackburn for Minny has went OVER the total in 4 out of his last 5, and Luke Hocheaver for the Royals gets lit up like a Christmas Tree every time he takes the mound at home with a home ERA of over 6 this season.
Joe Gavazzi
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets
Play: New York Mets
This is your history book play of the day. Though Santana has struggled in a couple recent starts, the Mets have won 6 of his 9 at home where he has a 2.14 ERA. More importantly, he is a perfect 5-0 with a 0.50 ERA in 5 starts spanning 35 2/3 IP vs. the Dodgers. Compare that to Harang who has a 4.09 ERA on the road and in 9 starts vs. the Mets has a 6.09 ERA. Let history be thy guide.
MATT RIVERS
For Friday, go with the Yankees to square their four game set with the Athletics tonight.
Last night's 4-3 win pushed Oakland to 11-2 their last 13 games, and sure as heck proves they are a young team that is going to be in the wild card mix as we head down the stretch.
Oakland starter Tom Milone has been lights-out at home, going 5-1 with an unreal 1.03 ERA in Oakland this season. The Yankees have the lineup to boost that ERA just a tad, and I expect them to be able to get at least 3 runs off of Milone and let Ivan Nova do the rest.
Nova has been New York's "go to" pitcher on the road this season, as he is the owner of a 7-1 mark away from Bronx, and the Yankees have been able to win 13 of his 18 starts overall this season.
New York is still 9-3 their last dozen games, and they have still won 9 of their last 10 games played at Oakland.
The A's keep things close, but in the end the Yankees prevail this Friday night to even things in their four game set up.
1♦ N.Y. YANKEES
DOM CHAMBERS
For my free pick, let’s take a look at the Cincinnati Reds over the Milwaukee Brewers.
Homer Bailey starts for the Reds. Overall, he is 8-6 with a 3.93 ERA. But he has picked up his game lately. He is 3-0 in his last three starts with a 1.99 ERA.
For the Brewers, Marco Estrada starts. The Brewers have lost two of his last three starts. On the road, he is 0-1 with a 5.25 ERA.
Offensively, the Brewers are struggling, averaging 3.7 runs a game on the road. The Reds average 4.5 runs a game at home.
The pitching and hitting edge go to the Reds.
Take the Reds.
3♦ REDS
JEFF BENTON
Your Friday freebie is the Over in the Giants-Phillies game.
Not a chance in hell that Tim Lincecum comes out tonight and throws a three-hit shutout. Lincecum did look "vintage" his last time out against Houston, but that type of start this season has been like a blue moon. Lincecum's season ERA is 5.93, and his road record this season is 1-6 with an ERA of 9.00.
13 of Lincecum's 19 starts this year have played Over the total, and my feeling is tonight's start will also play high.
Philadelphia will start Vance Worley whose ERA stands at 5.94 over his last three trips to the hill, and 10 of Worley's 15 assignments this season have landed Over the total.
Mark me down for a back-and-forth high-scoring contest tonight in the City of Brotherly Love.
Giants and Phillies Over the total on Friday night!
2♦ OVER
SCOTT DELANEY
Now let's turn our attention to my free pick for tonight, as I head to PNC Park, where I like the cheap chalk on the Pittsburgh Pirates against the Miami Marlins, and I want you listing the scheduled pitchers: Kevin Correia and Ricky Nolasco.
Pittsburgh's right-hander is in after laboring last Saturday in Milwaukee, where he retired the final 11 Brewers, sticking around long enough to secure a win after the Pirates rallied in the top of the seventh.
He matched a personal best by winning his fourth straight decision, not to mention his third-straight start. Over his last five starts he is 4-0 with a 3.34 ERA, allowing no more than three earned runs on four occasions. His strikeout-to-walk ratio during that span is 27-13 - better than 2-to-1 - while he's allowed an average of just 5.2 hits per game.
On the flipside, Miami's righty might be 5-3 with a 2.10 ERA lifetime versus the Pirates, but he's 2-3 at PNC Park, and comes in after a home loss to the Washington Nationals, who tagged him for four runs and six hits over 5-1/3 innings.
We have the better-performing team, the hotter pitcher and the right price in this one. Take the Bucs, and list both for an easy Friday night win.
5♦ PITTSBURGH
CHRIS JORDAN
I've been telling you night after night I will be looking for value with the Washington Nationals, right? And with a 10-0 free-pick run on the line tonight, I say list Stephen Strasburg and roll with the home team in D.C., against the visiting Atlanta Braves.
Seriously, I mean the hard-throwing right-hander is 10-4 on the year, he is comes in after a less-than dominant start and he's laying a hefty price to a National League East-contender and rival, not to mention a damn good pitcher in Tommy Hanson. The writing is on the wall boys.
Some of you are going to be apt to thinking the Braves are catching the great price, but there are reasons the oddsmakers make these lines the way they do, and tonight it's because Strasburg is that damn good.
Despite his 'mediocre' effort against the Miami Marlins last Sunday, he still pitched six scoreless innings and struck out seven. He was diligent in working out of jams with runners in scoring position on four different occasions to record his 14th quality start of the campaign.
The win snapped a three-start losing streak that ended the first half of the campaign. And make note, one of those losses came in Atlanta, where he lasted three innings, gave up two hits and three earned runs. He exited due to heat-related issues, as humidity in July, in the A-T-L can be brutal.
Now he's at home, and I love him!
All due respect to Hanson, who was off his game in his first post-All-Star start against the Mets. But after allowing six earned runs, the most he's allowed since May 28 against the Cardinals, I think this is a bad spot for him.
Get some money with the Nats and Strasburg here.
4♦ WASHINGTON