Matt Fargo
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Houston Astros vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Houston Astros
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This is a great number for the Astros who have been playing some very solid baseball of late. They are 6-3 over their last nine games as the offense has started to finally find a groove. The Padres have dropped three of their last four including the opener last night as over a two-to-one chalk. Getting Roy Oswalt as an underdog in this spot is a bargain in my opinion. Getting him coming off his worst putting of the season makes it even better as the value is there as is the bounce back probability. He started the season with 10 straight quality starts before falling down in two outings but he came back with three more quality efforts prior to his last game at Texas. Looking at his slate and you will see that the Astros are 2-6 in the eight starts that he has been an underdog. There is a reason for that however as five of those losses came against Tim Lincecum three times, Roy Halladay and Ubaldo Jimenez so it make sense. Oswalt has a 2.88 ERA in six road starts this season, five of which have been quality outings with the Astros going 4-2 in those games. Going against San Diego has been a winning proposition as he has a 2.74 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 14 career starts where he is 10-2 and Houston is 11-3 in those games. This includes a 3-1 record and 2.51 ERA in five starts in Petco Park. Mat Latos has been outstanding this season for the Padres as he is 8-4 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 15 starts. He has been tough to beat but the one way he has been beaten is by his own team as the run production has been horrid. San Diego is averaging only 3.7 rpg in his starts including the exact same at home where the Padres are just 3-3 in his six home starts. He dominated the Astros in Houston in his first start against them but that was two months ago and Houston has found its production at the plate since then. The Astros are 62-28 in Oswalt’s last 90 starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game while the Padres are 1-7 in their last eight home games against right-handed starters. After last night, Houston has taken 10 of the last 13 meetings. 3* Houston Astros
Tony George
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White Sox vs. Rangers
Play: Over 9.5
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Play the OVER in this game on Friday night as Texas is simply smoking hot at the plate. If they see any lefthanded pitchers from the bullpen of the White Sox, look out, they are batting .380 as a team against southpaws their last 10 games and almost .300 against right handers as a team in their last 10 as well. Chicago has some hitters too I saw in person in Kansas City this week, but Texas should roll and they have not scored less than 4 runs a game their last 10 and are simply putting up some impressive numbers at the plate. 4 out of 6 in this series so far this season have went over, I like some fireworks in this one tonight.
Rocketman
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
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LA Dodgers are 43-35 overall this year while Arizona comes in with a 31-48 overall record this season. LA Dodgers are 21-5 overall this year against division opponents. Arizona is 2-8 this year as a home underdog of +100 to +125. Arizona is 76-104 the past 3 years after a win. LA Dodgers have won 4 of their last 5 games overall. LA Dodgers bullpen has a 3.59 ERA on the road this year. Arizona bullpen has a 6.98 ERA overall this year and a 6.66 ERA at home this season. Hiroki Kuroda has a 3.27 ERA overall this year, 2.93 ERA on the road this season and a 3.12 ERA his last 3 starts. LA Dodgers have won 8 of 9 games against Arizona this year. We'll recommend a small play on the LA Dodgers tonight!
Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on LA Angels -160
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The Angels have taken 3 of 4 from KC this season and 15 of 19 over the last 3 seasons. Looking back a little further, the Halos are 44-16 in their last 60 games with the Royals. The Angels have especially been dominant at home where they are 28-11 in their last 39 meetings with KC. The Angels should be in good hands with Saunders on the hill. The lefty is 3-0 (4-0 on the money line) lifetime when starting against the Royals with an ERA of 3.00. The Angels are also an impressive 28-11 in Saunders' last 39 series opening starts. The Royals send Davies to the hill, and he doesn't inspire as much confidence. He is 1-1 (1-2 on the money line) lifetime when starting against LA with an ERA of 4.80. He was lit up for 6 runs in 4 innings in a 7-2 KC loss against LA one month ago. The Royals are just 1-4 in Davies' last 5 starts. It is also worth noting that the Royals are 10-31 in their last 41 vs. the American League West and 6-20 in their last 26 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Take the Angels.
Info Plays
3* on Pittsburgh Pirates +140
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Reasons the Pirates win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Home underdogs with a money line of +125 or more (PITTSBURGH) - allowing 5.3 or more runs/game on the season (NL), after scoring 4 runs or less 5 straight games. This is a 41-20 ML System hitting 67.2% since 1997 while gaining +43.3 units. This system is a stellar 7-1 this season alone.
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2.) Pittsburgh has won 3 of their last 4 games, and they are pitching very well in the process. The Pirates have allowed 3 runs or less in 5 straight games, and 9 runs total in those 5 outings. Ross Ohlendorf faced the Phillies twice last season, allowing 5 earned runs in 12 innings for a solid 3.75 ERA. Philly is battling several injuries right now with Chase Utley and Placido Polanco both down. Bet the Pirates at home.
JR O'Donnell
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DET (-155) vs SEA
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Jr. has hit 5 in row free and # 6 goes to the Mighty Nasty Tigers @ home as Vegas has some huge respect for the boys from Comerica park! Owners a smooth 25-11 home park and they are -155 for a reason, they win!! We have owned the bases the last few weeks and tonight's home cooker has JR W written all over it! Seattle M's is going with the broom Fister and he has been on the shelf for a month with a banged up shoulder He was lit up by the Brewers last game. Lets play the Tigers -155 tonight.
Hollywood Sports
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Orioles at Red Sox
Prediction: Over
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The Orioles send out Bradley Bergesen who is 3-4 with a baudy 6.83 ERA and 1.74 WHIP. Bergesen should really struggle in Fenway Park as he sports an 8.64 ERA, 2.28 WHIP and an opponent's batting average of .380 when on the road. The Red Sox counter with Tim Wakefield who has seen his own set of problems this season given his 2-5 record, 5.21 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. The knuckle-baller has not found sanctuary at home this season given his 6.51 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and .279 opponent's batting average in Fenway. While a Total of 10.5 is high, it has been set there for a reason.
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On a deeper level, both of these pitchers share a troubling sabermetric statistic that strongly suggests that they both will experience hard times in the future. Isolated Power (ISO) is a metric number determined by slugging percentage minus batting average. This metric identifies the net percentage of hits that are going for extra-bases. Just as slugging percentage privileges homeruns over triples and triples over doubles, this metric maintains that weighted-value system. The MLB ISO average is in the .145-.155 range. For pitchers, low ISOs are good and high ISOs are bad. Bergesen and Wakefield have high ISO's of .204 and .192 respectively which indicates they both have been giving up a disproportionate amount of extra-base hits. The importance for sabermetric statistics like this is that it exposes a deeper picture regarding the expected future performances of starting pitchers. Most bettors evaluate pitchers based on a starter's Won-Loss record and ERA. By analyzing statistics like ISO, we get a better sense of why a pitcher has a certain W-L record or ERA which produces a more sophisticated perspective when now evaluating a pitcher's future.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers
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The Rangers and White Sox meet at Friday night when Colby Lewis matches serves with Freddy Garcia at the Ballpark in Arlington. Lewis takes the mound looking to avenge a 4-3 loss he suffered in Chicago against Garcia and the Pale Hose a month ago knowing he is 3-1 in his last four team starts with five walks and 28 strikeouts in those games. With Garcia just 3-7 in his last 10 games in this series, look for the Rangers to improve to 5-2 all-time at home behind Lewis here this evening. We recommend a play on Texas.
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Play on: Texas Rangers
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on San Francisco Giants -105
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I know the Giants are struggling, but they are more than worth a shot at this price w/ the better starter on the hill. The reigning two-time NL Cy Young Award winner is 8-3 with an ERA of 3.13 on the season. It is also nice to know that Lincecum has been at his best on the road in 2010. The Freak is 3-0 (6-1 on the money line) in 7 road outings with an ERA of only 2.54. It is also worth noting that the Giants are 9-2 in Lincecum's last 11 starts following a team loss in their previous game. The Rockies hand the ball to Chacin and they are just 1-5 in his last 6 starts and 0-5 in his last 5 starts when pitching on 4 day's rest. Take the Giants tonight.
Jack Jones
Cleveland Indians +107
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The Cleveland Indians are playing very well right now, and should not be an underdog to the Oakland A's at home. Cleveland just capped off their 5th straight victory after sweeping the Blue Jays with a 6-1 victory Thursday. Now, the Indians send one of their best starters to the mound in Mitch Talbot, who is 8-6 with a 3.88 ERA this season. The Indians have gone 9-6 in his 15 starts. In fact, the Indians are 9-4 in Talbot's 13 starts as an underdog of +100 or higher.
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A's starter Gio Gonzalez has been two different starters home and away. At home, he has been dominant, but on the road it's another story. Gonzalez is 2-3 with a 5.44 ERA and 1.674 WHIP in 8 road starts this season. He also hasn't fared well at night, going 2-5 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.557 WHIP in 11 night starts this year. Oakland is 15-25 on the road this season, scoring a miniscule 3.9 RPG. The Indians are 7-1 in their last 8 home games after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Finally, Cleveland has won 6 of their last 7 home meetings with Oakland. Roll with the Indians Friday.
Wunderdog
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Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Cincinnati Reds +1½
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It has become quite apparent that this is a Cubs team on the slide. The Cubs finished atop the NL Central as recently as 2008, with a home-dominating mark of 57-24, compiling 97 wins. Last year they barely finished over .500 with an 83-78 mark, and the home factor was diminished by 11 games. This season the Cubs are 11 under .500 and will be scraping to get to 70 wins, and the dominance at home is gone as they are below .500 at Wrigley. Cincinnati, meanwhile, has done a reversal with young talent coming of age to lead the NL Central, and have a winning mark on the road. The road tally shows they would be 8-1 in their last nine road games at +1.5, so I like them here on the runline.
Nelly
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Milwaukee + over St. Louis
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The Brewers are 3-1 in the last four starts from Chris Narveson and his last outings was the best of his career, going eight scoreless innings while allowing just four hits. Narveson allowed just five hits in six innings earlier this season in St. Louis and his numbers at home and on the road are quite similar. The Cardinals are not a good hitting team against left-handed pitching including owning just a .236 batting average at home. Two key bats are still out of the lineup for the Cardinals and St. Louis has been losing ground in the NL Central. St. Louis is just 10-13 in the last 23 games and the strong home record has been diminished. Jamie Garcia appears to be wearing down after an amazing start to his rookie season. Garcia lasted just two innings in his last start and over his last six starts he has allowed 17 runs even though his season ERA is just 2.27. The Cardinals are just 7-8 when Garcia starts including only 2-4 at home and St. Louis is greatly overvalued here. Milwaukee is 8-3 in the last eleven games and the Brewers are heating up on offense, scoring five or more runs in eight of the last twelve games for an average of over 5 runs per game. The Brewers have a better record on the road than at home and Milwaukee is batting .271 in the last ten games compared to just .247 for St. Louis. Milwaukee is also 6-2 in the last eight meetings between these teams in St. Louis and 15-5 in the last 20. Look for another surprise from the Brewers at a great price.
Larry Ness
Tampa Bay Rays at Minnesota Twins
Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays had a tough June (11-14) but did close the month with an important 9-4 win in Fenway over division rival Boston on Wednesday. Yesterday, they opened July with a 5-4, 10-inning victory in Minnesota over the Twins, giving them back-to-back wins for the first time since a three-game winning streak from June 6-9. The Rays remain MLB's best road team at 26-13, having outscored opponents on average, 5.69-to-3.82 RPG. They'll send David Price to the hill tonight, looking to become the AL's first 12-game winner. The young lefty has blossomed into one of the league's best pitchers in 2010, posting an 11-3 mark with a 2.44 ERA (just 83 hits allowed in 99.2 innings). The Twins will counter with Scott Baker, who is coming off a rough June. He allowed four ERs or more in FOUR of his five starts. He beat Colorado 2-1 for his lone win (two hits and 12 Ks in seven innings) but in the other four, allowed 34 hits and 19 ERs over 22.2 innings (7.54 ERA). I'm playing Price and the Rays.
TEDDY COVERS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Minnesota Twins
PICK: Tampa Bay Rays
The Twins pulled off a series victory in their crucial AL Central showdown against the Tigers earlier this week, but their wins against quality foes have been few and far between of late. The Twins are four games under .500 against the AL East, at that includes series against both the Orioles and Blue Jays. Minnesota is a solid bet against weaker foes, but this is not a team that I’m comfortable supporting when they step up in class.
Tampa Bay snapped out of a 5-12 funk with a big win at Fenway Park on Wednesday, as their slumping offense broke through with a nine run outburst. Last night, the Rays showed even more resiliency, rallying late to earn a 5-4 extra inning win over Minnesota. Manager Joe Maddon summed it up: “We’re keeping our head above water. We’re not going away. To go through these tribulations offensively and still be right in the thick of things, I’ll take it.”
No AL pitcher has notched more wins than David Price this year – his eleven victories lead the league. Price went 4-1 with a 2.18 ERA in June, and he struck out a season high eleven in eight innings of work against Arizona last Sunday. Meanwhile, Minnesota’s Scott Baker has been lit up repeatedly of late, finishing June with a 6.07 ERA in his five starts. Baker went 0-2 with a 6.17 ERA in a pair of starts against the Rays last year. We’re getting a very reasonable price to support the superior team with the better pitcher on the mound. 2* Take Tampa Bay.
Dave Price
1 Unit on San Francisco Giants -102
The Giants are struggling, but I won't pass them up at this great price with the two-time reigning NL Cy Young winner on the bump. Lincecum has been at his best on the road where he is an unbeaten 3-0 (6-1 against the ML) with an ERA of just 2.54 this season. And there's no one the Giants would rather have on the hill when they're struggling. The Giants have won 9 of Lincecum's last 11 starts when he has been handed the ball following a team loss. Take the Giants.