Black Widow
1* on Detroit Tigers -145
We look for Detroit to use their day off wisely to rebound from back-to-back losses to the Twins. The Tigers will come into this series motivated in Game 1 to get back in the win column, and to try and gain some ground on Minnesota in the Central. The Mariners are in for an emotional letdown in this game as they just played a 3-game set in New York, taking 2 out of 3 from the Yankees. But Seattle is just 13-27 on the road this season, hitting .233 while scoring 3.4 runs/game. Detroit is 25-11 at home, hitting .280 and putting up 4.9 runs/game. Also, the Mariners bullpen sports a 5.42 ERA on the road this year, while Detroit's bullpen has posted a 2.99 ERA at home. Seattle starter Doug Fister is 0-1 with a 5.30 ERA over his last 3 starts, while Detroit starter Max Scherzer is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA over his last 3 outings. Seattle has taken 4 out of 5 from Detroit this season, but the Tigers are 13-3 against the money line with double revenge - 2 straight losses against opponent this season. Seattle is 3-19 (-16.0 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.400 to 1.500 over the last 3 seasons. We'll lay the juice on the Tigers in this one. Take Detroit on the Money Line.
Freddy Wills
Florida Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Florida Marlins
Josh Johnson has been great this year but so have the Braves at home. I think this is a pitching match up and Johnson has a 2.52 ERA in his last 4 starts @ Atlanta. Johnson and the Marlins are 43-20 in Josh Johnson Last 63 starts.
Dan Bebe
DET (-155) vs SEA
Well, of course, by the time I finished up both podcasts, this line had moved another 17 cents on top of the 10 it had already moved before we locked it in. Unfortunate, to say the least, and to be completely honest and up-front, I don't believe I would still play this game at -170 or above.
For those that were able to grab this one between the opening number of -145 and about -160, yes, it's pricey, but the Tigers are a very strong team at home, and Max Scherzer is absolutely hitting his stride since returning from the Minors. His strikeout numbers are awfully impressive, and I believe that, at -145 to -155 or so, we were getting a terrific value on this game.
The Mariners are coming off taking 2 of 3 from the Yankees, who were in total letdown mode off the crazy Interleague series in Los Angeles (and jetlag, too), so the price on this game was a little lower than it should have been. On top of that, the Tigers were coming home off a poor road trip (par for the course, for Detroit), and people are quick to forget that they're one of the toughest home teams in baseball.
The opposing starter is still trying to work his way back to health, and his first effort, in Milwaukee, didn't go well. Seattle won that game, somehow, but Fister was definitely not the reason, as he was bounced after 4 innings, and the bullpen did all the work. That bullpen, mind you, has not been too consistent, and the Tigers are liable to tack on some extra runs, late. We can't forget, Detroit can hit. Their issue is that they rarely make the clutch play (be it an important pitch or a big hit) on the road. At home, they pitch extremely well, and often win games by 2-3 runs. Even if they don't, the Tigers still have one of the better pens in the Bigs.
So, without going into too much detail (since the price change makes this a little frustrating), that's why I liked Detroit at -155.
For those that got the good price (or still can, perhaps, with a local), play SMALL on Detroit!