Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, July 23,2010

Marc Lawrence
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Atlanta Braves at Florida Marlins
Prediction: Atlanta Braves
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The Braves and Marlins battle in the opening game of a critical three game series Friday night when Derek Lowe meets Alejandro Sanabia at Sun Life Stadium tonight. Lowe enters with strong credentials, having cashed in 10 of his last 14 team starts in July and seven of his 11 career team starts against the Fish. With Sanabia off his first-ever MLB victory in his last start, look for Atlanta to improve to 5-1 in their last six games in this series here this evening. We recommend a 1-unit play on Atlanta.

Cajun Sports
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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
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The Blue Jays look to rebound after losing the first game of their four-game set versus the host Detroit Tigers. They will send Shaun Marcum to the bump with his 8-4 record and 3.37 ERA on the year including a 4-2 mark on the highway and a 2-1 record his last three trips to the bump. Detroit will counter with Rick Porcello who has struggled this season with a record of 4-7 and an ERA of 5.63. Even starting at home has not been easy for Rick as his 3-3 record and ERA of 4.37 would indicate. Toronto 61-39 against AL Central opponents the last 3 seasons and 54-39 versus AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs per game on the season the last 2 seasons. We will back the visitors here as they bounce back and grab a victory in Detroit on Friday night.
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PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Toronto Blue Jays 4 Detroit Tigers 3

BIG AL
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Minnesota Twins @ Baltimore Orioles
PICK: Minnesota Twins
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For the second year in a row, Minnesota will move lefthander Brian Duensing from the bullpen into the rotation in the second half of the season. Last season Duensing became a starter full time toward the third week of August, and he put up some pretty strong numbers in that capacity for his team (5-1 with a 2.79 ERA in nine starts). Now it's a year later and Duensing will replace the struggling Nick Blackburn in the Twins rotation and chances are that he will remain there for the rest of the season if he can put up the same type of numbers he did a year ago. This season, Duensing is doing much better as a reliever prior to his move than he was doing in 2009 as he is currently 3-1 with a 1.67 ERA in 39 relief appearances. The Twins bullpen is deep enough that they should be able to afford this switch and Duensing being a southpaw adds extra value in the rotation. He gets a great first assignment as a starter, against a struggling Orioles team and in a ballpark in which the Twins have done very well in recent years. The O's will turn to righthander Jeremy Guthrie for his 20th start of the season and it's hard to believe that Guthrie has only won three of his first 19 starts. He hasn't fared very well at Camden Yards in his career, going just 13-25 in 56 career appearances (55 starts) there. Take the Twins.

Info Plays

3* on Los Angeles Dodgers -115
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Reasons the Dodgers win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (LA DODGERS) - with a starting pitcher who strikes out 5 or more batters per start, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts. This is a 72-29 ML System hitting 71.3% over the last 5 seasons. This system is 12-4 this season.
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2.) Vicente Padilla. He is 3-1 with a 2.20 ERA and 0.767 WHIP in 4 home starts this season, and 2-0 with a 0.87 ERA and 0.726 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Padilla is also 8-3 with a 3.73 ERA in 12 lifetime starts vs. the Mets. Bet Los Angeles at home.

JIM FEIST
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NEW YORK METS / LOS ANGELES DODGERS
PLAY: LOS ANGELES DODGERS
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The Dodgers hope that their post All Star break slide is over because they play in one of the most competitive divisions in baseball. Right now, less than six games separate the top four teams in the NL West. The good news for the Dodgers here on Friday is that they are playing an equally slumping Mets club. Both the Dodgers and Mets had lost seven of their last eight games heading into Thursday night's contest. Since the break, the Mets have been hitting .192 and scored just 15 runs in the first seven games. And it could get worse as this LA series begins an 11-game road swing where they have won just 19 of their first 49 away from home. The Dodgers haven't been much better since the break, hitting .247 and scoring 18 runs in the first seven games. Johan Santana starts for the Mets. While he may lack his dominance he once had with the Twins, the southpaw is still 7-5 this year with a 2.87 ERA. Santana has allowed just four earned runs in his last four games (31 innings). Vincente Padilla starts for the Dodgers and is 4-2 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Padilla has also been pitching well, allowing just three earned runs in his last four starts (27 2/3 innings). Two hot pitchers here against slumping teams. That means runs will be at a premium. I'll be taking the Dodgers here. The Mets haven't played well on the road and while both pitchers are very good, the Dodgers pen is a bit better and that will likely be the deciding factor here.

BRAD DIAMOND SPORTS
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Boston over Seattle
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No doubt the Sox have been roughed up on this road trip west, but feel this is a good spot with RHP Beckett returning to the hill. The Red Sox have won 4 straight behind Josh Beckett when facing the home standing Mariners. Further, we find the Sox 23-6 with Beckett versus a losing baseball team, while Beckett is 4-1 with a 3.15 life time ERA against the Mariners. Since Seattle is 2-9 at home of late the side is Boston.

Gill Alexander
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CLE (+140) vs TAM
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The Rays have lost a stunning 17 games in a row at Progressive Field in Cleveland. Let's let that marinate for a second. 17. And those are when Cleveland isn't as hot as it is now, having won 6 of their last 7. Tampa Bay has been outscored 107-47 over that span and has scored 2 runs or fewer in 11 of those ballgames. Here's another little nugget. The Rays have actually only won 12 games in their history in Cleveland. They're 12-38 lifetime. That's the franchise's worst record anywhere. And we're talking New York and Boston, included. In their last 11 home games, the Tribe's starting pitchers have a 1.76ERA. Since the All-Star Break, the Rays starters have a 6.06ERA. Arguably Cleveland's best hitter, Shin-Soo Choo returns to the lineup tonight. Two starts ago, Carmona went 6.2IP v TB and held the Rays to 2ER on 5H. In fact, he has a 2.70ERA in 2 starts v TB this season. He has been quality in 8 out of his 9 starts. In that same ballgame two starts ago, Niemann gave up 3ER on 6H in 5IP v Cle. Sabermetric corroboration is here too, as I'm sure you surmised. Niemann's -1.45 ERA-FIP stat (2.92ERA v 4.37FIP) represents the 2nd widest discrepancy to the negative side in all of baseball. And, side note, I throw out my bizarro Sabermetric All-Star Tim Hudson who is 1st in that category because of his otherworldly ground ball rate. So, in essence, Niemann, for my money, is king of that stat and ergo, king of that embedded line value (and yes, I just dropped my first "ergo" on you this season). Niemann's .246BABIP (3rd "luckiest" in MLB) and 84.5% (LOB) strand rate (2nd highest in MLB) scream regression. That's especially true of that latter stat. So, it's little wonder why I'm backing the Tribe here, especially as a fairly sizeable underdog.

VEGAS EXPERTS
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Atlanta Braves at Florida Marlins
Play: Florida Marlins
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Florida Marlins host the Atlanta Braves tonight at 7:10 PM ET in the opening game of the series. On the mound for the Braves, Derek Lowe has been having a decent season with a team start record of 11-9. With a 4.39 ERA, he tends to give up a good amount of runs per game, especially on the road where is average is slightly higher (4.63 ERA). On the other side of tonight’s matchup, Sanabia is starting for the Marlins. Sanabia has only started twice this season but he won both games without giving up any runs. He has a 0.00 ERA and 1.126 WHIP at home. When it all comes down to it, Florida is the better team in this matchup.

Tom Freese
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New York at Los Angeles
Play: Under
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Dodgers starter Vincente Padilla has allowed 3 runs total in his last 4 starts. Los Angeles is 4-1 UNDER their last 5 home games and they are 4-1-1 UNDER their last 6 games overall. The Dodgers are 4-1-1 UNDER vs. a team vs. a team with a winning record and they are 4-0 UNDER at home vs. the Mets. New York starter Johan Santana has allowed 2 runs total in his last 4 starts. New York is 20-4-2 UNDER their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Mets are 10-2-1 UNDER their last 13 games overall and they are 15-5-1 UNDER off a loss. The Mets are 9-1-1 UNDER in the last 11 starts made by Santana as a road underdog.

JR O'Donnell
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BOS (-125) vs SEA
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Red Sox nation tonight as the Josh Beckett show is a solid 4-1 with a 3.35 ERA in 5 battles against Seattle so far. The Red Sox nation is a dangerous crew and the Red Sox will get to Mariners Jason Vargas who is 6-4 over all and a 2.97 ERA. The Red Sox are a strong gut play here from JR'S CAMP! Our stats show the Sox @ strong 8-2 in their last 10 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Let's play the Road Warrior Sox and Beckett tonight as he has the fire power to lead the Red Sox tonight!

Karl Garrett

Friday night for free from the G-Man, and I am rolling strong with the Giants to dispose of the Diamondbacks once again.

Last night San Francisco opened the long weekend set with a 3-0 blanking of Arizona, as the Giants won for the 12th time over their last 15 games.

San Fran has also been able to handle the D-Backs in 4 of the 6 meetings this year, and 17 of the last 24 dating back to last year.

Giants hurler Jonathan Sanchez has won his last 3 starts against the Snakes, while Diamondbacks starter Edwin Jackson continues to give up runs at an alarming rate.

Jackson's last 3 starts have seen 13 runs scored over his last 16 innings of work, and it has also raised his home ERA for the season to a sky-high 5.63.

Giants make it 2 in a row over the Diamondbacks behind Sanchez tonight.

3♦ SAN FRANCISCO

Bobby Maxwell

Tonight I'm delivering a FREE winner on the A's as they look to continue their hot streak when they host the White Sox in Oakland.

Oakland has been playing very well lately, winning five of six since the All-Star break and taking seven of eight overall. Look for them to rough up the White Sox tonight behind the pitching of Trevor Cahill (9-3, 3.19 ERA).

Cahill is a stellar 5-1 at home this season with a 2.14 ERA and in his last home outing he held the Angels to one unearned run in seven innings of a 5-2 victory. Oakland has won seven of his last eight starts and he’s allowed three runs or less in seven of his last 10. He faced the White Sox three times last season, including an August home start that saw Cahill give up two runs in six innings of a 3-2 victory.

Chicago is countering with lefty Mark Buehrle (8-8, 4.18 ERA). He gave up three runs in eight innings on Saturday in Minnesota, losing 3-2 to the Twins. He’s really struggled against these A’s in his career, as the White Sox are just 2-8 in his last 10 outings against them since 2004. Last year’s outing came in June and he gave up four runs in eight innings of a 7-0 loss. In Oakland, the White Sox are just 1-4 in Buehrle’s last five outings and they are just 1-9 when he pitches in Oakland overall and 4-16 when he faces the A’s overall.

As a team, Oakland dominates the stat sheet, winning 29 of the last 39 played at home. The A’s are also on streaks of 18-6 when Cahill takes the mound, 10-1 when he’s a favorite, 6-0 when he’s a home favorite, 8-3 when they are favored, 5-1 after a win, 7-1 overall and 4-0 against the A.L. Central.

Chicago is on slides of 2-6 when Buehrle starts on Friday, 4-14 when he faces a winning team on the road, 0-4 when they are road ‘dogs and 1-5 when he faces the A.L. West.

Cahill is as tough as they come on his home mound. Play Oakland to take this series opener.

4♦ OAKLAND

BRETT ATKINS

I improved to 8-1 with my last nine free plays after the winner with the Giants in Arizona on Thursday night. Tonight I'm handing out another easy winner as I go with the Braves on the road in Florida.

Derek Lowe is on the hill for the Atlanta Braves tonight and they have been playing so well offensively that this one should be no problem for them. They have scored three runs or more in nine of their last 11 games and they get contributions from everyone in the lineup.

Lowe faced the Marlins three times last season and the Braves won two of the three, including an August victory when he gave up three runs in five innings of a 7-5 win. Lowe has held the opposition to three runs or less in eight of his last 10 outings and three straight road starts, covering 19.1 innings.

Alejandro Sanabia (1-1, 2.12 ERA) has been very good in his two starts this season, but the Nationals and D’Backs are exactly offensive powerhouses. Atlanta is a different story.

I’ll play Atlanta to get this win tonight.

5♦ ATLANTA

Tony George
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San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates
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The entire universe seems to like the Padres here. This in my mind is a trap play and trap line. The Padres should be -140 minimum here tonight and yet just a small favorite. The Pirates are at home, split a series with the Brewers 2-2, and won a series before that over Houston, and they have some hot bats, hotter than the Pads right now. Both pitchers starting are pretty equal, a small lean to Corriea of the Padres here, but Pitt is hitting right handers at .307 as a team their last 10 games and I expect them to get some runs, his ERA is over 4 his last 3 games. All in all worth the stretch as a home dog to open the series where clearly the line is out of whack, just have a gut feel the Pirates pull it out and oddsmakers are BEGGING you to take the Padres at this number. SMALL lean, half unit play.