Craig Trapp
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Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Minnesota Twins
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Finally looks as if MIN is snapping out of month plus tail spin. Won't take much from them today to beat what is the worst team in the majors. Finally they removed Blackburn from rotation and replace him with most consistent bullpen pitcher Duensing. He went 5-1 with a 2.73 ERA in nine starts as a rookie in 2009. Even better he has only allowed 1 run in last 14 relief innings. He faces hard luck Guthrie today who has 3-10 with a 4.58 on the season. Run support has been a big problem for him and don't look for him to get it today. MIN bats have heated up and BALT are still so inconsistent. Great value on the much better Twins.
Dave Malinsky
Cincinnati Reds @ Houston Astros
PICK: Cincinnati Reds
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A market move to the Astros this morning drops this one down into our play range, and has us un the right place at the right time to get behind Travis Wood, who is throwing a baseball pretty darn well right now, but without the kind of return that sends off market alerts.
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Wood was on fire when the Reds called him up, with a 0.63 ERA over his last four Minor League starts that included a pair of shutouts, and a dominating ratio of 34 K’s vs. 20 Hits allowed, with just five W’s. And he has carried that form over to the MLB mounds, with a 2.02 over four starts in which he has nearly twice as many K’s (23), as Hits allowed (12). But there is a catch – he does not have a single “W” for those efforts. He only allowed two hits over seven IP in Wrigley against the Cubs and came away with nothing, although the Reds eventually won the game, and after a subpar start vs. the Mets he has worked a pair of beauties, but without reward. He matched Roy Halladay pitch for pitch over nine shutout innings at Philadelphia, where the Reds eventually lost 1-0, and in his last outing was beaten 1-0 at home by Aaron Cook and the Rockies. Now he gets a chance to step down in class against a weak Houston offense that is 15th in the N.L. in Runs, and dead last in Hits, and this time can count on some offensive support.
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The 2-7/6.09 from Bud Norris pretty much sums him up – and note that there have already been eight unearned runs in his 68 frames, courtesy of a defense that is dead last on our best set of ratings, and 28th in unearned runs allowed. Bad pitching, bad offense and bad defense is hardly a recipe for success, and with Norris lacking in confidence after an awful showing at Pittsburgh in his last outing (seven runs, four earned, on nine hits over 4.2 frames, with a 21.0 PPI), the Cincinnati offense can make up for its past failures behind Wood.
Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on San Francisco Giants -109
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With Thursday's 3-0 win over the D-backs, the Giants are now 12-3 in their last 15 games overall. That win also marked their 4th in a row against Arizona and their 6th straight as a favorite. The Giants have the edge on the hill with Sanchez tonight. He is 4-0 on the money line in his last 4 starts against the D-backs, and the Giants are 5-0 in his last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. Jackson has really struggled at home this season (5.62 ERA) and the Diamondbacks are just 1-7 in his last 8 starts vs. the National League West. It is also worth noting that the Diamondbacks are only 13-38 in their last 51 games as an underdog and 2-8 in their last 10 games against a lefty starter. Take the Giants.
EZWINNERS
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Texas Rangers -196
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The Rangers starting pitcher C.J. Wilson is having an excellent season. Wilson is 8-5 this season with an ERA of 3.23 and over his last three starts he is 2-1 with an ERA of just 2.60. I'm expecting Wilson to have another solid outing against an Angels team that has struggled in their trips to Arlington. The Angels starting pitcher Joe Saunders is having a rough year as he has posted a 6-9 record with an ERA of 4.83 and he has struggled against Texas in his career. In ten career starts against the Rangers, Saunders is 3-6 with an ERA of 7.19. Saunders has either pitched great this season or else he has been hammered. I expect him to get hammered in this start by the hot hitting Rangers. The Angels are only 3-9 in their last twelve visits to Texas and the Rangers are 8-2 in C.J. Wilson's last ten home starts. Play on Texas.
John Ryan
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
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5* graded play on the Rays as they face the Indians set to start at 7:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Rays will easily win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 99-27 making 53.1 units since 1997. Play on all favorites with a money line of -150 or more and is a below average hitting team batting <=.265) facing a good AL starting pitcher posting an ERA <=4.20 with the game taking place in the second half of the season. Needless to say starter Neimann has been fantastic against teams similar to that of the Indians. he sports a perfect 10-0 (+10.6 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse this season; 14-0 (+14.0 Units) against the money line versus poor power teams averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons; 17-3 (+12.2 Units) against the money line versus teams outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Take the Rays.
Steve Janus
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Atlanta Braves vs. Florida Marlins
Pick: Atlanta Braves
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I am taking the Braves over the Marlins on Friday, as the Braves send Derek Lowe to the mound, where he has been pretty good of late with a 3.62 ERA. The Braves are 53-37 against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season, while Lowe is a perfect 8-0 against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Braves!
SPORTS WAGERS
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Minnesota –1 –1.07 over BALTIMORE
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If you don’t have an account at a book that allows you to lay just one run as oppose to 1½-runs, it’s your call if you want to lay the extra half run. The only thing that prevents us from doing so is that the Twins pitchers and hitters alike have performed much better at Target Field than they have on the road (the result -- a 20-25 mark on the road compared to a 29-20 record at home). Still, we like the fact that the Twins have made a move that was a long time coming. They moved Nick Blackburn to the pen and Brian Duensing into the rotation. Duensing is no stranger to starting and he’s really a legit pitcher. Working out of the pen this season he has stranded 91.1% of inherited runners and has an outstanding BABIP of .241. His GB% is high at 49.6%, his line-drive % is low at 14.8% and so is his FB fate of 35%. This guy has all the skills to be highly successful and the Twins have groomed him very nicely. Duensing’s career numbers, which includes nine starts, are rather impressive that include a 2.98 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. This season his ERA is 1.67, his WHIP is 1.05 and his BAA on the road is 1.71. This guy is ready to make the transition full time. Meanwhile, we all saw the spike in Jeremy Guthrie’s ERA coming. Eroding command says the damage isn't done, and spiking FB% confirms high hr/9 wasn't a fluke. His July numbers say dead arm (15 IP – 23H – 11ER – 3HR- 9BB- 8K) and his BAA against in July is .354 and counting. The Twins could also be inspired by Duensing’s return to the rotation, as playing behind Blackburn was not fun at all and Duensing is an extremely well-liked member of the squad. Everyone is rooting for him. Play: Minnesota –1 –1.07 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).
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TEXAS –1½ +1.07 over Anaheim
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Joe Saunders had a decent stretch of games recently but he’s back to his old, pitiful self and now is the time to take advantage. Saunders decent stretch lasted about six games when he allowed just one earned run in three of those. However, two of those three occurred in Seattle and Oakland, two of the best pitcher parks in the majors. Most recently, however, Saunders faced the Mariners again and the White Sox and surrendered 20 hits combined in 11.2 innings. There are a lot of disturbing numbers surrounding Saunders and one of them is his swing strike percentage of 5.8%. That means exactly what is says…swing and a miss. The major league average is almost double that so Saunders fools very few batters. He also has a high thrown balls percentage of 40.7 and after getting scorched in his last two games, he has to be feeling uneasy about facing the Rangers in this park. A 7.19 ERA against the Rangers in his career sure doesn’t help either. On the other side is C.J. Wilson and his 3.29 ERA and BAA of .206. Wilson is rock solid and dependable. He’s allowed two runs or less in seven of his last nine starts and in the other two he allowed just three runs. In his 19 starts thus far, he’s allowed more than three runs just three times and they all occurred in May. The Rangers should score plenty here while the same can’t be said for the Angels. Play: Texas –1½ +1.07 (Risking 2 units).
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TORONTO +1.08 over B.C. Lions
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The Argos weren’t expected to win many games this year but they’re already 2-1 with a couple of nice wins and they could be 3-0 after a misleading 14-point loss in Calgary in week one. They rebounded with a nice win in Winnipeg and an even nicer come-from-behind win last week over the Stamps. The Argos are looking better each week. The offense is slowly but surely progressing in the right direction. Cleo Lemon is gaining confidence with each passing quarter and is just about ready to explode. The Argos kick and punt return teams are so dangerous and almost always gives the team a short field to work with and that should bode extremely well here against a Lions squad that has more two and outs than any team in the league. Enter Travis Lulay to make his first start since 2007, when he played in NFL Europe. Lulay is an unknown factor but he’s also no stranger to this league. He appeared in 16 games last year with B.C., mostly in relief, and completed 22 of 36 passes for 324 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. He was also pressed into service this year when Printers missed the second half of B.C.'s 37-18 loss to Saskatchewan two weeks ago and completed nine of 15 passes for 197 yards and a touchdown. Not bad stats but starting is a whole different animal and with an offense that is struggling (overall, the B.C. offence ranks last, or second-last, in 14 offensive categories) and with all the momentum on the Argos side, playing the home team plus a tag is the prudent move. Play: Toronto +1.08 (Risking 2 units).
Nelly
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Atlanta + over Florida
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Alejandro Sanabia has been sharp in the first two starts of his big league career, not allowing a run in nearly nine innings of work. He did face two of the worst teams in the National League in those starts however and Sanabia actually allowed at least one run in each of his three relief appearances prior to moving to the rotation. Sanabia is not likely to go deep into this game which could leave a vulnerable Marlins bullpen in a tough spot. Derek Lowe has very average numbers this season but the Braves have been winners behind him and he has allowed three or fewer runs in eight of his last ten starts. Atlanta has won both series between these teams in 2010 and the Braves are 40-13 in the last 53 games as favorites. Florida has not delivered much of a home field edge and the Braves are also won of the better performing road teams in the NL. Despite winning seven of the last ten games the Marlins are batting just .210 in that span while the Braves are hitting .285 and we’d rather trust the veteran pitcher on the top team in the league to deliver against an unproven rookie that has only shown a very brief flash of potential.
Larry Ness
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New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
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The Dodgers beat the Mets 2-0 last night. New York has now dropped four straight and seven of eight on the team's season-high 11-game road trip. The Mets' offense has been just AWFUL, scoring only 15 runs while batting a pathetic .189. Going back even further, the Mets haven't scored more than four runs in a game since an 8-6 loss to Cincinnati on July 5, totaling just 24 runs in their last 13 games (1.85 per). The Dodgers have also struggled, batting .236 during a 2-6 stretch. Going back over 13 games as well, LA has scored just 42 runs (3.23 per). Johan Santana starts for New York and Vincente Padilla for LA. Santana has won just seven games this year (five losses) in 20 starts (2.87 ERA). The team is 7-3 in his home starts but a woeful 3-7 in his road starts, despite a 2.93 ERA. The Rangers were happy to get rid of Padilla last season but he was a pleasant surprise for the Dodgers down the stretch. He was 4-0 with a 3.20 ERA in seven starts (team was 6-1) and then was terrific in his first three postseason starts, going 2-0 with an 0.93 ERA (20-2 KW ratio) in three LA wins. However, he did get bombed in his fourth start, allowing six ERs in just four innings of a 10-4 loss. That being said, Padilla was LA's Opening Day starter in 2010 but in four April starts was just 1-1 with a 6.65 ERA (team was 1-3). He was placed on the 15-day DL on April 25 with a sore right forearm and spent almost two months "on the shelf." He returned and was ineffective at Boston on June 19, allowing five hits and four ERs in just 5.1 innings of a 5-4 loss (got a no decision). However, he's been outstanding since then, going 3-1 with a 1.30 ERA in his last five starts. He allowed five walks in his last outing but allowed just one hit and no runs in six innings. He left with a 4-0 lead but the LA bullpen blew the save and the game (Dodgers lost 5-4). Note that prior to that last outing, Padilla had a 27-3 KW ratio in his previous four starts. Neither team is hitting but I'll side with Padilla and the Dodgers, counting on Santana's hard luck to continue away from Citi Field.
Rocketman
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Cleveland Indians
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Tampa Bay is 2-12 this year when playing on Friday. Cleveland has won 6 of their last 7 games overall this year. Cleveland bullpen has a 3.13 ERA at home this year. Fausto Carmona has a 3.65 ERA overall this year, a 3.72 ERA at home and 2-1 with a 3.48 ERA his last 3 starts. Cleveland is 8-0 at home vs Tampa Bay the past 3 years. Niemann is 0-1 overall vs Cleveland since 1997 while Carmona is 3-1 overall vs Tampa Bay since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Cleveland tonight!
Wunderdog
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Royals vs. Yankees
Play: Under 10
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A.J. Burnett has shown signs of pitching better, and as bad as things have gone for him this season, he certainly has been above average at the Stadium where he has pitched to a 3.59 ERA. he should have a good game vs. the Royals as he has worked 27.2 innings in his last four starts against them, pitching to a 1.95 ERA. The Yankees often struggle vs. pitchers they haven't seen much of, and they haven't seen Bannister since 2008. Bannister has pitched to a 5-0 mark to the UNDER in his last five vs. the AL East, and the Royals are 11-3 to the UNDER vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of greater than 1.30 in their last 14. Just one of the last 12 pitched by Burnett has topped the total with a moneyline of -201 or greater. I'll go UNDER in this one.
Rob Vinciletti
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Mets vs. Dodgers
Play: Under 7
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This game fits a nice system that plays to the under for home favorites with a total of 8 or less off a home favored win scoring 2 or less runs with 4 or less hits, vs an opponent off a road loss also scoring 2 or less runs. This system projects a low scoring game. The play was considered for the late phones until the line dropped from 7 to 6.5. However it is still a nice play. Both teams have been anemic at the plate . The Mets are hitting .188 and scoring just 2.1 runs per game, while the Dodgers are scoring 2.7 runs over the past week. The Mets have J. Santana making the start and he has a .037 era over his past 3 starts and has really cranked it up for the second half. The Dodgers counter with V. Padilla tonight. Padilla has a 2.20 home era this season. Look for this game to go under the total.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on San Diego Padres -111
The Padres have had Pittsburgh's number, having won 20 of the last 28 meetings, including 6 of the last 7 in Pittsburgh. I'll get behind the Padres tonight considering they are 10-3 in Correia's last 13 road starts and a perfect 6-0 in his last 6 starts as a favorite. Plus, the Pirates are a terrible 14-42 in their last 56 games vs. a right-handed starter. In addition, Pittsburgh has lost 5 of Maholm's last 7 starts and 20 of his last 28 starts against the NL West. Take the Padres at a nice price.
Jack Jones
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San Diego Padres -109 at BetUS
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Getting the Padres at nearly even money Friday against the Pirates is certainly worthy of a free play today. San Diego is 55-39 this season and sitting atop the NL West, while the Pirates are 34-61 which is last in the NL Central. In 3 career starts vs. Pittsburgh, Padres starter Kevin Correia is 1-1 with a 3.31 ERA. He pitched 7 shutout innings in his last start at Pittsburgh. The Pirates are 0-3 in Paul Maholm's 3 career starts vs. San Diego, and he allowed 3 runs and 12 base runners in 6 innings in his last start against the Padres. That was the same game Correia went 7 scoreless in a 4-0 Padres victory.
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Correia is 16-7 after a loss over the last 2 seasons. Correia is 7-1 on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. The righty is a very profitable 20-4 as a favorite since 1997. Pittsburgh is just 7-28 vs. an NL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Pirates are 5-22 vs. a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better this season. The Padres are 8-0 in their last 8 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. San Diego is 7-0 in Correia's last 7 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Enough said. Bet the Padres Friday.
INSIDER ANGLES
Cincinnati Reds vs. Houston Astros
Young southpaw Travis Wood of the Cincinnati Reds has been brilliant since being called up, and while Bud Norris has been much more erratic for the Houston Astros, we feel he will be successful enough to help keep this game Under the total.
Wood has made four starts this year and has allowed three earned runs or less in every one of them, but that does not tell the whole story. In his last two starts, Wood allowed just one hit in nine scoreless innings vs. the Phillies in a game the Reds lost 1-0 in extra innings, and he then followed up that effort by allowing one run on only three hits in six innings vs. Colorado.
Wood also has the advantage of fading the Astros for the first time ever, and Houston is having enough problems hitting against pitchers that they have seem. The Astros are dead last in the National League in batting at .238, ahead of only the Seattle Mariners (.237) in the Major Leagues, and they are second to last in the National League in scoring ahead of only Pittsburgh. They are also hitting a dreadful .185 vs. left-handers in the last 10 games.
Now Norris is just 2-7 with a poor 6.09 ERA overall, but he has pitched much more decently lately, including tossing two scoreless outings in his last five starts. It should also be noted that while the Reds have scored the more runs in the National League this year, they have slumped to a much more pedestrian 4.10 runs per game in their last 10 contests while batting just .246 as a team, which should make Norris’s job easier.
Finally, the Under is 15-5-1 in the last 21 Cincinnati road games, as well as 49-41-5 in all Houston games this year, and we look for both of those Under streaks to continue here.
Pick: Reds / Astros Under 8