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Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday July 24,2009

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SPORTS ADVISORS

San Francisco (51-44) at Colorado (52-43)

The torrid Rockies, now leading the National League wild-card race, send right-hander Jason Hammel (5-4, 4.26 ERA) to the Coors Field mound to open a three-game weekend set against the Giants and All-Star righty Matt Cain (11-2, 2.32).

Colorado, which had Thursday off, took two of three at home against Arizona earlier this week, including Wednesday’s 4-3 victory. The Rockies sport runs of 32-11 overall, 16-6 at home and 5-1 after a day off, and they’ve won five straight series openers.

The Giants, who led Colorado in the wild-card chase 12 days ago, have tailed off since then, going 2-6 despite having one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. San Francisco dropped three in a row at Atlanta before finally breaking through with a 5-1 victory Thursday, with Barry Zito throwing seven innings of one-run ball and the Giants putting the game away with four runs in the eighth inning. Still, San Francisco is 20-29 on the road this year and is on addtional skids of 2-7 on the highway, 1-6 against righties on the road and 29-61 in roadies against winning teams.

San Francisco has taken three of the five meetings this season in this rivalry, after Colorado won 10 of the 15 clashes last year.

Colorado has won nine of its last 11 behind Hammel, including his last five home starts, dating to May 30. He had a good effort in his last outing, on Saturday at San Diego, allowing one run on five hits and three walks in 5 2/3 innings, but he got a no-decision in a 3-1 loss. The 26-year-old is 1-2 with an inflated 7.62 ERA in nine appearances (eight starts) at home this season. Earlier this year, in his lone career start against San Fran, he threw six shutout innings before getting a no-decision in a 1-0 road loss.

With Hammel on the bump, Colorado is on streaks of 9-2 overall, 5-0 at home and 5-1 as a favorite.

The Giants are 12-2 in Cain’s last 14 outings, winning the last three in a row. On Sunday at Pittsburgh, the 24-year-old yielded one run on five hits and two walks, with eight strikeouts, in seven innings of a 4-3 victory. Cain is 5-1 with a 2.39 ERA in nine road starts this year, and he’s 7-5 with a 3.11 ERA in 15 career starts against Colorado. He split two meetings with the Rockies this year, allowing all five runs in a 5-1 home loss May 2, then coming back five days later to throw six shutout innings in an 8-3 road victory.

The Giants are on runs behind Cain of 7-1 with the righty going on four days’ rest and 5-2 on the road, but they are on a 12-26 plunge with Cain facing N.L. West opponents.

The under for Colorado is on streaks of 4-1 against winning teams and 4-1 behind Hammel, and the under for San Francisco is on rolls of 6-2 on the road, 17-8-3 inside the division, 5-1 with Cain hurling and 5-1 behind Cain on the highway. However, in this rivalry, the total has cleared the posted price in the last four clashes at Coors and is 4-1 in Cain’s last five road starts against the Rockies.

ATS ADVANTAGE: COLORADO

Minnesota (48-48) at L.A. Angels (56-38)

The streaking Angels trot out right-hander John Lackey (5-4, 4.39 ERA) for the second game of a four-game home series against the Twins, who will counter with struggling left-hander Francisco Liriano (4-9, 5.33).

In Thursday’s opener, Los Angeles rallied from a 5-3 deficit in the bottom of the ninth inning, scoring twice to send the game into extra innings. Then in the bottom of the 10th, Mike Napoli’s two-out RBI single resulted in a 6-5 victory.. The Halos have won six in a row and 10 of their last 11, and they are on further hot streaks of 27-9 overall, 10-3 at home and 21-7 as a chalk.

Minnesota is still 10-6 in its last 16 as an underdog, and the Twins are on a 7-3 run as a road pup. Minnesota is also 5-3 in the last eight clashes in this rivalry, but the Angels are on a 21-8 spree in the last 29 meetings in Anaheim.

Los Angeles has won two in a row and four of five backing Lackey, with the 30-year-old earning the decision in his last two starts. In a pitchers duel Sunday at Oakland, Lackey threw a complete-game shutout in a 1-0 victory, allowing just three hits and one walk while striking out six. Lackey is 2-3 with a 4.89 ERA in five home starts this year, and he’s 5-5 with a 3.87 ERA in 13 career starts against the Twins, whom he hasn’t faced this season.

Despite their recent success behind Lackey, the Halos are still on slides of 2-6 at home behind the righty and 3-8 with Lackey facing a winning team.

Minnesota has lost in Liriano’s last two starts, following a three-game win streak behind the 25-year-old. On Sunday at Texas, he allowed three runs (two earned) on five hits and three walks in six innings of a 5-3 loss. Liriano is 3-4 with a 5.55 ERA in 11 road starts this season, and in his two career appearances (one start) against L.A., he’s 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA, though he hasn’t faced the Angels since 2006.

The Twins are 4-1 in Liriano’s last five road starts, but they are on a 4-10 slide with the southpaw going on four days’ rest.

The under is 7-3 in Lackey’s last 10 home starts, 4-1 with the righty a home chalk and 6-2 with Lackey facing the A.L. Central, and the under for Minnesota is on runs of 11-4 against righty starters, 30-11-2 on the road and 17-8-2 behind Liriano on the highway. However, the over for Los Angeles is on stretches of 26-10-2 overall, 8-1 at home and 5-1 with Lackey facing winning squads.

Finally, in this rivalry, the over is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings.

ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS

 
Posted : July 24, 2009 7:34 am
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DUNKEL

Oakland at NY Yankees
The Yankees look to build on their 13-3 record in Joba Chamberlain's last 16 home starts. New York is the pick (-190) according to Dunkel, which has the Yankees favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-190).

Game 901-902: Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Harang) 15.205; Cubs (Wells) 15.044
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-150); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+140); N/A

Game 903-904: San Diego at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Latos) 13.394; Washington (Mock) 13.959
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Washington (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-115); Under

Game 905-906: St. Louis at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Pineiro) 15.302; Philadelphia (Happ) 16.487
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-140); Over

Game 907-908: NY Mets at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Santana) 14.590; Houston (Hampton) 15.170
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+115); Under

Game 909-910: Atlanta at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Vazquez) 14.412; Milwaukee (Parra) 15.108
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+120); Over

Game 911-912: San Francisco at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Cain) 15.817; Colorado (Hammel) 14.960
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Colorado (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+110); Over

Game 913-914: Pittsburgh at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Duke) 14.962; Arizona (Petit) 14.780
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-105); 9
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-105); Under

Game 915-916: Florida at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Johnson) 15.574; LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 15.868
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-150); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-150); Over

Game 917-918: Oakland at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Anderson) 16.010; NY Yankees (Chamberlain) 17.572
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-190); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-190); Over

Game 919-920: Tampa Bay at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Garza) 14.083; Toronto (Halladay) 15.297
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-140); Under

Game 921-922: Chicago White Sox at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Colon) 14.883; Detroit (Bonine) 15.310
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-125); 10
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-125); Under

Game 923-924: Baltimore at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Bergesen) 15.266; Boston (Penny) 14.822
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Boston (-155); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+145); Under

Game 925-926: Texas at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Feldman) 14.988; Kansas City (Greinke) 14.690
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+140); Over

Game 927-928: Minnesota at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Liriano) 15.419; LA Angels (Lackey) 16.959
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-150); Over

Game 929-930: Cleveland at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Laffey) 14.648; Seattle (Rowland-Smith) 15.702
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Seattle (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-125); Under

Game 931-932: Chicago White Sox at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Contreras) 15.083; Detroit (Verlander) 16.214
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-170); Over

CFL

Toronto at Winnipeg
The Bluebombers look to bounce back from their defeat at Hamilton last week and build on their 5-0 record in their last 5 games following a SU loss. Winnipeg is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Bluebombers favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (-3 1/2).

Game 403-404: Toronto at Winnipeg
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 101.899; Winnipeg 107.123
Dunkel Line: Winnipeg by 5; 57
Vegas Line: Winnipeg by 3 1/2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (-3 1/2); Over

Game 405-406: Calgary at BC
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 112.335; BC 110.229
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 2; 54
Vegas Line: Calgary by 3; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: BC (+3); Under

 
Posted : July 24, 2009 7:35 am
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Vernon Croy
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Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Chicago Cubs
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This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and the Cubs are starting to hit the ball a lot better averaging 5.4 rpg over their last 7 games while hitting .266 as a team. The Cubs opponents are hitting just .221 against them over their last 7 games and I look for Randy Wells (5-4, 3.00) to have a strong outing against a team he pitched great against back on June.7. Wells allowed just 7 hits and 2 earned runs over 6.7 innings in his last start against the Reds and that was in Cincinnati. The Reds pitching has been very bad on the road this month with an ERA of 7.78 over 10 road games and Aaron Harang (5-10, 4.17 ERA) has been hit hard over his last 3 starts with an ERA of 6.19 while lasting just an average of 5.3 innings per start. The Reds are just 2-8 in Harang's last 10 road starts as an underdog and they are just 1-7 in their last 8 games in game 1 of a series. The Reds are just 9-23 in their last 32 road games and the Cubs are a perfect 5-0 in Wells' last 5 starts as a favorite. Take the Chicago Cubs Friday afternoon.

 
Posted : July 24, 2009 7:48 am
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Cajun Sports
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St Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
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The Philadelphia Phillies and the St. Louis Cardinals open a three-game set at Citizens Bank Park on Friday night with game one of the series set for 7:05PM Eastern Time. The Phillies bounced back from a loss to the Cubs on Wednesday by defeating the Padres 9 to 4 on Thursday night as part of a one-game series. The Phillies also took the three-game series from the Cubs even though they lost the third and final game. Philadelphia is 20-8 (+13.0) after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season, 43-22 (+16.6) against NL Central opponents the last 2 seasons and 49-25 (+25.0) versus NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs per game on the season. The Phillies will send JA Happ to the bump with his 5-0 record and an ERA of 2.68. St. Louis will counter with Joel Pineiro who is 8-9 on the year with an ERA of 3.09 and he is 4-5 on the road with an ERA of 3.68 in those games. A check of the data base shows we have two MLB Systems active for tonight’s contest with the first telling us to Play Against MLB road teams who are batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games facing a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.000 or better over his last five starts, 126-42 (+64.6) the last five years and 20-4 (+14.6) this season. The second system says to Play On MLB home teams who average five or more runs per game now facing a starter with an ERA of 3.70 or better on the season with a pitcher whose ERA is less than 2.50 his last three outings, 42-11 (+28.4) the last five seasons and a perfect 3-0 (+3.0) this season. Lay the chalk with the host as the Phillies continue their solid play and grab game one of this series against the Cardinals.
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Graded Selection: 2* Philadelphia Phillies 5 St. Louis Cardinals 2

 
Posted : July 24, 2009 7:49 am
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Mike Rose
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Toronto Argonauts +4.5
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After opening up the 2009 CFL betting season by dropping 20 points in the first quarter against Hamilton, the Argonauts have gotten absolutely no offensive production on the scoreboard. Even though theyve only scored 55 points in their L/11 quarters of action, QB Kerry Joseph still headed into Week 3 CFL wagering as the top quarterback in the CFL both in terms of passing yards (880) and passing touchdowns (6). He is off to a much better start this year than he was last season when he was touted as the savior for a team that had struggled offensively in years past. Unfortunately, things havent panned out over the L/2 weeks for the double blue, as they have been demolished by Calgary and Saskatchewan in that stretch.
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Save a big victory over Calgary in Week 2, there hasnt been much to cheer about in Winnipeg this season. Last week, the Bombers put up a miserable offensive effort in Hamilton, but that has pretty much been the story for the season. QB Stefan LeFors, tabbed the starting quarterback at the start of the season, has struggled mightily in his first year as a CFL starter. He has only completed 44.2% of his passes this year, easily the lowest amongst starting QBs in the CFL. Hes only thrown two touchdowns, the same number as scored by LB Siddeeq Shabazz. Shabazz has forced three turnovers on the season, and he directly accounted for 14 of Winnipegs 72 points on the season.
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Toronto has a lot of off-the-field issues with WR Arland Bruce being sent home, but the reality is that this team is just better than Winnipeg. Until the Bombers can figure out how to get a passing attack going, theres no reason that they should be laying four points to anyone in this league.

 
Posted : July 24, 2009 7:51 am
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Brad Diamond Sports
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Play: Detroit over Chicago
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Here the veteran hurler Verlander (10-5, 3.34) is scheduled to throw in game one of the doubleheader being played in Detroit this afternoon. No matter, I will go against any opposing pitcher from the White Sox. The Tigers catch a huge break as the Sox could be a little flat after a perfect experience by lefty Buehrle yesterday against the Rays. Further, Detroit is 37-18 in the home starts thrown by Verlander, 7-0 at home versus a winning road club and 13-3 last sixteen at home. Finally, Verlander has allowed only 5 earned runs in his last 20 innings of work, so the Tigers look to be in good position starting the series.

 
Posted : July 24, 2009 7:53 am
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Nelly
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Atlanta - over Milwaukee
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Javier Vazquez has a very misleading 7-7 record and if he had received a little better run support he would be serious Cy Young contender. Vazquez has an insane strikeout to walk ratio that is approaching 6:1, having picked up 141 strikeouts in 126 innings. His ERA of 2.86 is one of the best in the NL and 13 times this season he has allowed two or fewer runs in his start. The wins are finally starting to come as the offense has picked up the pace in recent games and Atlanta is 4-1 in his last five starts. Pitching on the road has been no problem for Vazquez his WHIP is 1.04 in road appearances and for the season opposing batters own just a .222 batting average against him. Since Rafael Soriano moved more firmly into a closing role the Braves bullpen has also been very sharp, including a 3.29 ERA in the last ten games. Milwaukee had one of the top bullpens in baseball for most of the season but the unit has been a complete disaster of late. The Brewers have a 5.24 ERA over the last ten games and several recent losses can be attributed to relief pitching. Since Milwaukee is still right in the thick of the NL Central race, few realize how much they are struggling but the Brewers have now lost twelve of the last 18 games. Manny Parra has made back-to-back encouraging starts but he has had too much inconsistency to be counted on in this match-up. Atlanta is hitting .300 in the last ten games and this looks like another great opportunity for the Braves.

 
Posted : July 24, 2009 7:54 am
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Red Dog Sports
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Tampa Bay at Toronto
Play: Under 7.5
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Garza and Halladay face each other and these two have 84 overs and 99 unders this season. Tampa has 18 unders and 5 overs in their last 23 on the road and under has won 28 of the last 39 meetings. Look for an under on Friday!

 
Posted : July 24, 2009 7:55 am
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Jimmy The Moose
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Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays
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The Rays have lost 3 of their last 4 games. On Thursday they were mesmerized by Buehrle and tonight they face Roy Halladay. Tampa has lost 6 of Garza's last 8 road starts. The Rays are 2-9 in his last 11 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. Tonight might be Halladay's last start as a Toronto Blue Jay in front of the home fans. Toronto is 55-17 in Halladay's last 72 starts at home. Halladay always pitches well at home and will look to get the win if this is his last home start. Play on the Toronto Blue Jays -.

 
Posted : July 24, 2009 7:56 am
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Marc Lawrence
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Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays
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The Blue Jays send ace right-hander Roy Halladay to the hill against the Rays in Toronto tonight knowing they have won 11 of the last 14 games at home in which Halladay has been on the mound. In those games he has been in commanding KW form with 12 walks and 88 strikeouts. He's also taken it on the chin in two games against Tampa Bay this season. Look for Halladay and the Blue Jays to get their revenge here tonight.

 
Posted : July 24, 2009 7:57 am
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Matt Fargo
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Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks
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This is a very good price for Arizona who is coming off a relatively east victory last night against the Pirates in this series opener. With a walk-ff victory on Wednesday, Pittsburgh improved to 26-19 at home but remains dismal on the road, going just 16-34 on the season including losses in five straight and 12 of their last 14 games away from home. The Pirates are 11-27 in their last 38 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. The fact that this game is in the pickem range is quite surprising. Arizona is by no means a strong team this season and that is even the case at home where it is nine games under .500 but it has been getting better as the Diamondbacks are 6-2 in their last eight home games. The price is what it is because of the successful season Zach Duke is having and the complete opposite season that Yusmeiro Petit is having. He has a solid 3.32 ERA on the year but as is the case with most Pirates pitchers over the recent years, wins are hard to come by. On the road, Duke has a respectable 3.69 ERA but he is just 2-5 while Pittsburgh is only 2-7 in his nine road outings on the year. Run support is the big reason for that lack of success as the offense is putting up only 3.7 rpg in those nine contests. The Pirates are 12-40 in Dukes last 52 road starts. Arizona counters with Petit who is coming off his first quality start of the season and I think he can ride that momentum into tonight. He has been horrible this season overall and that definitely helps our cause with the number. The Diamondbacks have yet to win a home start of his, going 0-3 on the year but this can be the breakthrough as this is easily the worst team that they have faced.
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3* Arizona Diamondbacks

 
Posted : July 24, 2009 7:57 am
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Stephen Nover
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Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays
PICK: Tampa Bay Rays
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Roy Halladay is a great pitcher. But the Blue Jays aren't a very good team. Tampa Bay is and the Rays have beaten Halladay five times during the past two seasons, their most wins against any pitcher during this span.
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Halladay is 0-2 versus the Rays this season with a 3.46 ERA in 13 innings. This may be his final start in a Blue Jays uniform. Constant trade rumors may affect his concentration.
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Lefty Mark Buehrle pitched a perfect game against the Rays on Thursday. Tampa Bay would like to atone against the right-handed Halladay. The Rays have won 11 of their last 15 versus right-handers. They also are 5-2 in their last seven outings when facing Halladay.
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Rays starter Matt Garza has been dominant against the Jays the past two years, giving up three runs in 45 innings. This includes a 4-1 win a little more than three weeks ago. Garza has a 0.91 ERA in four career starts at Toronto.
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The Blue Jays have lot 15 of their past 21 games. They are 1-5 versus Tampa Bay this season.
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This is a one-unit play for me.

 
Posted : July 24, 2009 8:00 am
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Bob Harvey
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
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We’re backing the best pitcher in baseball today as Roy Halladay takes the mound for the Blue Jays in the opener of a three-game series against the D-Rays.
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Talks of trading Halladay have started to die down and it appears that Toronto will hang on to their veteran righthander. That’s great news for Jays fans but bad news for any team in the American League who has to face him. Halladay is 11-3 with a 2.73 ERA but his only two losses in his last 14 outings have come against the Devil Rays. In both games Halladay, who allowed just five earned runs in 13-innings, was victimized by poor run support. Halladay is 11-9 with a 3.73 ERA in his career against TB.

Matt Garza takes a 6-7 record and a 3.80 ERA into his showdown against Doc Halladay. Garza’s last win came back on June 30th against Toronto a game in which he allowed one run in seven innings of work in a 4-1 Rays victory. Garza is a guy with “ace” stuff and he’ll definitely need to bring his A game against the good doctor.
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This game features the 4th and 5th best hitting clubs in the American League. Tampa Bay is hitting .268 and averaging 5.2 runs per outing while Toronto also has a team batting average of .268 and averages 4.8 runs per game. The Blue Jays have been solid at home posting a 29-21 record while the Devil Rays have struggled on the road where they’ve gone 22-29. If the game turns into a battle of the bullpens, then the Rays will have definite advantage. Their bully is ranked second in the AL behind Boston and fourth in the majors.
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Tampa Bay has won five of six against the Blue Jays this year, including two of three at Toronto in June. It would be hard to find two more evenly matched teams. However getting Halladay at this price, at home, is too attractive to pass up. Look for Halladay and Blue Jays to come up big tonight in Toronto.

 
Posted : July 24, 2009 8:01 am
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Rob Vinciletti
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Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox
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The Redsox fit a solid 36-13 system,which I narrowed down to an 11-1 subset that wins by an average score of 7-3.What we want to do is play on certain home favorites off a road favored loss if their total was 10 or higher in that loss and tonights opponent is off a road dog loss scoring 4 or less.Boston is currently on a 5 game losing streak.However they return home against an Oriole team that they have handled rather easily.Boston is 17-5 at home vs the O/S over the last 3 years,including 4-0 this year.When playing the first game of a home series off a loss they have won 3 of 4 times this year.Coming off a day off they are 10-1.Tonight Boston has B.Penny taking the ball and they have won 6 of his 9 home starts,One of them he looks to make amends for.Back in April the O/S hit him pretty good scoring 8 runs in just 3 innings.Baltimore counters with Bergensen tonight and he pitched rather well against Boston in the beginning of the month.That was the first time the sox saw him and he allowed just 1 run in 8 innings.This time will be much different.This time Bergensen faces the Redsox in Boston.In his road starts this year he hasn't been nearly as good.Baltimore has lost 6 of his 7 road starts this year.

 
Posted : July 24, 2009 8:02 am
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Bobby Maxwell
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N.Y. Mets at HOUSTON +110
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Nailed my second straight FREE winner on Thursday as Mark Buehrle tossed a perfect game and led the White Sox over the Rays. Today's comp winner comes on the Astros as they host the Mets.

I don't care if the Mets do have ace Johan Santana (11-7, 2.92 ERA) pitching tonight, the Astros are red hot, playing great ball and have pulled themselves right into the hunt in the N.L. Central. I'm grabbing the plus-money with Houston at home in this one.
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The Astros have won five of seven since the All-Star break and just swept St. Louis in Houston the first three days of this week. They are 9-3 in their last 12 games overall, 47-20 against teams with a losing record, 4-0 at home, 5-2 as a 'dog and 4-0 in their last four series openers.

On the hill for Houston is Mike Hampton (5-7, 4.63), who has allowed three earned runs or less in five of his last seven outings. As a member of the Braves, Atlanta won four of his last six outings against the Mets, including his last one in September of last year when he held the Mets to two runs on six hits in six innings of a 3-2 win.
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Santana is just 4-5 on the road for New York with a 4.20 ERA. The Mets have lost four of his last five roadies and last year when he pitched in Houston he lost a tough one, 5-4.

Houston is 5-2 in Hampton's last 10 starts with five full days of rest, 10-2 when he starts at home against a team with a losing record and 21-6 in his last 27 starts against losing teams. He dominates when he is counted on.
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The Astros have won four straight over the Mets in Houston and five of the last seven overall with New York. Play Houston in this one.
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2♦ HOUSTON

 
Posted : July 24, 2009 8:06 am
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