Wunderdog
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Chicago White Sox at Detroit
Pick: Detroit -120
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Bartolo Colon has alwats been a sought after pitcher, and has been a lure for many teams with the latest being the Chicago White Sox. Sometimes that lure isn't as attractive as it looks. Colon will never again resemble the pitcher that won 135 games in eight years from '98-'05. He is now on his third team in three years, and the wins have been hard to come by. Since '05, Colon is just 14-21, despite pitching for all winning teams. This year is no expception as the White Sox are just 3-8 in his 11 starts. The White Sox are just 14-37 in their last 51 against a team with a home winning percentage of .600 or higher, while the Tigers have been a flawless 7-0 at home against teams with a winning record in their last seven matchups. I'll go with Detroit in this one. PLEASE NOTE THIS IS GAME TWO OF THE DOUBLEHEADER
Glenn McGrew
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Indians at Mariners
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This is a low total for an AL game. Normally you would expect at least one ace on the mound, yet both these guys are below average. The Indians have a fine offense, but starter Aaron Laffey is weak, walking 23 in 46 innings. His last three starts he has a 7.04 ERA walking too many. Seattle starter Ryan Rowland-Smith has not seen much action, but has walked more batters than innings pitched!
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Play the Indians/Mariners ! Over the total.
Dave Price
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1 Unit on Atlanta Braves -125
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The Brewers are just 2-5 in their last 7 home games and their recent struggles figure to continue tonight with Parra on the hill. The Brewers are 7-21 in Parra's last 28 starts overall, 1-7 in his last 8 home starts, and 0-5 in his last 5 Friday starts. The Braves are a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss so I look for them to avenge yesterday's defeat to the Giants here tonight behind Vazquez. Vazquez is extremely undervalued by odds makers here considering that he has an ERA of just 2.86 on the season and he's been even better of late, going 3-0 against the money line with an ERA of 1.86 and a WHIP of just 0.983. Take the Braves.
Rocketman
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NY Mets @ Houston
Play: NY Mets
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Houston is 1-6 this year after 3 or more consecutive wins. Houston is 2-9 this year when playing with a day off. Johan Santana is 11-7 with a 2.92 ERA overall this year and 2-1 with a 0.86 ERA his last 3 starts. Santana is 1-0 with a 0.68 ERA overall vs Houston since 1997. Mets are 6-1 in Santanas last 7 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Mets are 5-1 in Santanas last 6 starts during game 1 of a series. Mets are 12-3 in Santanas last 15 starts vs. National League Central. Astros are 3-13 in their last 16 games following an off day. Astros are 2-9 in their last 11 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. Astros are 1-5 in their last 6 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. We'll recommend a small play on NY Mets tonight!
Tom Freese
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Oakland at New York
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Oakland starter Brett Anderson has allowed runs in his last 3 starts covering 21 innings of work. The A's are 4-1 off a loss and they are 5-1 their last 6 games as road dogs of +151 to +200. New York starter Joba Chamberlain has allowed 17 runs in his last 20 innings of work. The Yankees are. 1-4 vs. AL West teams. For my money Anderson is a better pitcher than Chamberlain. PLAY ON OAKLAND + (Anderson vs. Chamberlain)
Evan Altemus
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Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers
3 units: Under 8.5
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Lefty Manny Parra had problems with his control earlier this season, but those problems appear to be well behind him. He has allowed only one earned run in thirteen innings since returning to the rotation, while posting a 13/4 strikeout to walk ratio. The key to containing Milwaukee is limiting the home run, which Javier Vasquez is excellent at. He has only given up four home runs in his last twelve starts, and he dominated Milwaukee earlier in the season. Atlanta’s bats have been hitting well lately, but I expect them to cool off in this game since it’s the first game of a road series, including facing a revamped Parra. Look for this game to fall under the total.
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3 UNIT SELECTION
John Ryan
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St Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Philadelphia as they face St. Louis slated to start at 7:05 EST. Phillies starter JA Happ is pitching mighty fine and the Phillies front office have a very difficult decision to make regarding him and hot prospect Kyle Drabek in a trade for ace Halladay. I can’t say I envy their position as both youthful prospects have all the potential in the world, but are they the quality of a Cy Young dominant pitcher like Halladay? Another fine start tonight by Happ may solidify his presence in a Phillies uniform. No matter the play is on Philadelphia as graded by the AiS. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 134-56 making 53.1 units since 2003. Play against all dogs with a money line of +100 or higher after 4 straight games where they stranded 7 or less runners on base and with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 7.00 the last 5 games. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 42-11 making 28.4 units since 2003. Play on home teams that are good offensive teams scoring >=5.0 runs/game facing a good NL starting pitcher sporting an ERA<=3.70 and an ERA less than 2.50 over his last 3 starts. St. Louis is a weak 5-12 (-9.9 Units) against the money line versus NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game on the season this season; 1-7 (-7.5 Units) against the money line revenging 2 straight home losses vs opponent this season. Phillies have off the chart chemistry and they are a solid 24-10 (+15.2 Units) against the money line versus NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons; 21-8 (+14.0 Units) against the money line after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season. Cardinals starter Pineiro is just 7-17 (-11.5 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. Take the Phillies.
DAVE MALINSKY
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Texas Rangers @ Kansas City Royals
PICK: Texas Rangers
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When team A trails team B by 11.5 games in the standings this is a difficult price to fathom. When team A is on a nine-game losing streak in which they have been out-scored by 31 runs, while team B has won four in a row, it becomes even more difficult. It shows just how much the reputations of the starting pitchers weight in the minds of the marketplace when prices are set, and in a game in which the gap between Scott Feldman and Zack Greinke is nowhere near as wide as is being projected, we are in play.
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Greinke has thrown the baseball remarkably well this season, but he can only field his own position, can not contribute offensively, and obviously can not come out of the bullpen to replace himself. As such, the Royals are just 10-9 in his starts, despite that 2.08 allowance. The overall package is far short of where it needs to be to be laying in the -150 range against this class of opponent, and if anything the Kansas City confidence level may be at the lowest ebb of the season.
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Meanwhile Scott Feldman continues to work at a marvelously efficient rate with hardly anyone paying attention. He sports an 8-3/3.29 as a starter that is backed up by a 1.09 WHIP, working confidently now that there is a much-improved Ranger defense behind him (they are all the way up to #5 afield on our best set of ratings). Feldman also brings the ideal style here, as we once again get to use a control pitcher into a weak lineup – he has walked four batters one time in 16 starts, and three only twice. Texas has gone 11-5 behind him, and with the Ranger confidence at a high level after sweeping Boston this bargain is impossible to pass up.
LARRY NESS
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Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox
PICK: Boston Red Sox
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The Red Sox owned a three-game lead over Yankees in the AL East after last Friday's 4-1 win at Toronto. However, Boston hasn't won since and opens a six-game homestand 2 1/2 games behind New York. The Red Sox have dropped a season-high five in a row while batting a pathetic .193 as a team and averaging only 1.8 RPG during their slide. All five losses have come on the road, where the Red Sox are 24-25 this season, batting .252 and averaging 4.6 RPG. In comparison, the Red Sox own MLB's best home winning percentage (.689) with a 31-14 mark at Fenway where they are batting .271 and averaging 5.6 RPG. The Orioles 'limp' into this series 41-53, 16 1/2 games behind the Yankees and with a pathetic 15-32 (.319) road mark. So what else is new? The Orioles have lost at least 50 road games over each of the last three seasons (90-153 overall, .370) and are "on pace" to lose 55 games this year away from Camden Yards. The Red Sox have gone 155-88 (.638) at Fenway in that same three-year span, including 56-25 last year (plus-$1,726). Boston's well on its way to another outstanding home mark in '09 (31-14, plus-$875) and have won NINE straight at Fenway over the Orioles since Baltimore won 7-3 back on July 11th of last season. The Orioles are a horrific 1-14 on the road against AL East teams in 2009 and there is little reason to expect their fortunes will change tonight. Rookie Brad Bergesen has pitched very well at home in 2009 (he's 6-1 with a 2.82 ERA / team is 8-2) but on the road is 0-3 with a 4.57 ERA (team is 1-6). Baltimore backers may be happy to see Brad Penny on the mound for Boston, as he allowed eight ERs in just three innings in his first career start against Baltimore back on April 17 at Fenway, although Boston went on to win that game 10-8. While Penny's ERA is 5.02 on the year, let me note that since that April 17 home start vs Baltimore, Penny is 4-1 in eight Fenway starts (team is 6-2), posting a 3.28 ERA. The price is a little steep (and I expect it to go higher), so let's make the Red Sox a small play.
Scott Rickenbach
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Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox
PICK: Over 9.5
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This play just missed making my "guaranteed pick" listing for tonight. The concern here is the weather as it could be quite cool this evening after some rain passes through the Boston area earlier in the day. However, notwithstanding the weather, everything else stands up quite well for an over in this match-up. Brad Penny of the Red Sox got roughed up in his most recent start. He also got hit hard by the Orioles in his only appearance against them earlier this season.
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Additionally, the Orioles starting pitcher tonight, Brad Bergesen faces a tough test. Yes, the young right-hander enjoyed success against the Red Sox the last time he faced them. However, that was at home and he has not been as successful on the road in this, his rookie season. Bergesen is 0-3 in his seven road starts and he has compiled a 4.57 ERA when away from home. Bergesen has more walks than strikeouts on the road and he's also been getting hit hard in recent outings. The right-hander has allowed 23 hits and 8 walks in his last 18.2 innings of work. That works out to a 1.66 WHIP and the Red Sox .480 slugging percentage at home ranks 2nd out of all 30 MLB teams. Consider a small play on OVER the total in Boston on Friday night.
Dennis Macklin
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St Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Under
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Both of tonight's starters are razor sharp. Joel Pineiro is 2-0 with a 1.96 ERA in his last three for the Cards. JA Happ has been the bomb for the Phils going 5-0 with a 2.74 ERA in his seven starts since being promoted from long man. Cards lack of offense equates to 29-12 under mark for totals of nine of higher and it's difficult to see how these two can get there tonight. Play the Under.
Freddy Wills
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Under 7½
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One day after they could not get a single man on base against the White Sox Mark Buehrle they will have to face the best RHP in baseball at home. The Rays have had success against Halladay in fact they beat him twice despite Halladay having 15K's in 13IP and giving up 5ER. I really like the under in this game for many reasons including the bullpens that have been excellent in the Last 5 games. Rays = 1.74ERA, Jays = 2.00 ERA.
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On the mound for the Rays is Garza who has struggled 6.06ERA last 3 starts, but he has been dominant over his career against the Jays. The Jays have a .247 career average vs. Garza, but Garza 5 starts last year vs. Toronto resulted in a 0.47ERA over 38 innings pitched. He gave up a total of 2 ER over that period. He had a start at the end of June against the Jays in Toronto and all he did was back up his 2008 campaign with 7IP and 1ER. He has struggled with his control but at times he is one of the best RHP in the AL East. I expect him to pitch well against a Blue Jays team that is averaging just .223 in their last 5 vs. RHP.
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The Under is 13-3 in Rays last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and the under is 13-3 in their last 16 vs. RH starter. The Under is 9-1-2 in the Blue Jays last 12 home games and 22-8 in their last 30 vs. AL East. In the last 39 meetings between the Jays and Rays the under has been successful 28 times!
King Creole
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SFG (+115) vs COL
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The Dawg Pound is always on the prowl for the BEST Underdog value based on the starting pitcher matchup. And Speedee plus his canine pals (Joeys and Isabella) are putting their paws down on the GIANTS Friday night. I ask you, who would you rather be on? The UNDERDOG starting pitcher (CAIN) with an ERA of only 1.17 in his last 3 starts (and a K/BB ratio of 15-4)? Or the FAVORITE starting pitcher (HAMMEL) with an ERA of 6.28 in his last 3 starts (and an opponent team batting average of .428)?
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Who would you rather be on? The UNDERDOG with a year-to-date road ERA of only 2.39 (and a 5-1 road record)? Or the FAVORITE with a year-to-date home ERA of 7.62 (and opp team batting average .406)?
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Who would you rather be on? the UNDERDOG with a nighttime ERA of only 2.72 on the season (and 6-1 record)? Or the FAVORITE with a nighttime ERA of 5.46 on the season?
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CAIN comes in with an 8-2 record in his last 10 starts and a PERFECT 3-0 record in his last 3 starts. If you're worried about his record "In THIS Park", don't be. He already started a game in the Mile High City once this year (back on May 7th). In that game, he worked six SHUTOUT innings against the Rockies... and allowed only ONE freakin' hit! The result was an 8-3 San Francisco win. For sharp players who focus on Underdog value, there's only ONE way to go in this one....
GoodFella
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ATL (-125) vs MIL
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Atlanta is 19-15 vs left-handed starters, and they average 5.4 runs per game in games started vs lefties, a full run more than they do for the season (4.4)
Atlanta has won 15 of their L/22 games, while Milwaukee is just 6-12 their L/18
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Milwaukee starter Manny Parra has been very good on his L/2 outings since being recalled from the minors....13 IP, 8 hits, 1ER, 4 BB, 13 K's (vs St. Louis who REALLY struggle vs leftys, and at the Reds)
Parra at Atlanta back on June 7th= 5 2/3 IP, 8 hits, 5 ER, 2 BB, 4 K's....also the Brewers are just 1-7 in Parra's L/8 home starts
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Vazquez vs the Brewers back on June 6th= 6 IP, 4 hits, 2 ER, 0BB, 7K's
Vazquez has been outstanding his L/5 starts= 3-1, 1.34 ERA, & the Braves are also 3-0 in his L/3 starts, which included his L/start vs the Mets on Sunday....as Vazquez went 7 Innings, allowed just 6 hits and 1 run. Vazquez also has a very impressive 2.17 ERA over his L/4 starts vs the Brewers
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The bullpens are basically a wash, as they have very, very similar Team Bullpen ERA, & WHIP
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I will lay the small chalk on the MUCH better starter and play on the team that is playing much better ball right now, as I look for Vazquez to be very good tonight, & as I have shown above, the Braves like to knock around left-handed starters.
Chris Jordan
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St. Louis at PHILADELPHIA -135
I eked out the comp winner on the Angels last night, getting it done in extra innings over the Twins. Tonight I am taking the Phillies, who banked us 600? of net profit over the Padres last night.
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I'm listing J.A. Happ only, and will bank on the defending champs to continue this incredible run that is now at 11-1. This is an impressive rookie southpaw, and don’t mind putting a piece on him, as he’s 5-0 with a 2.74 ERA in 11 starts since replacing Chan Ho Park in the rotation. That includes a 3-0 mark and 1.46 ERA in his last five outings.
Happ, who is 7-0 with a 2.68 ERA on the year, comes in off an impressive outing against a similarly talented Florida team, as he struck out four and scattered five hits over seven innings last Sunday in a 5-0 win.
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Following last night’s 9-4 win over San Diego – a 600♦ win for us – the Phils have now won 15 of 17 and are ahead of Atlanta and Florida by 6-1/2 games in the National League East.
Yes, St. Louis’ Joel Pineiro is 2-0 in his last three starts – all of which St. Louis has won – but the Redbirds are also 2-6 in his last eight starts on Fridays and have lost four of the last five he’s been installed as the underdog.
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The Phillies currently lead the National League in runs (503), home runs (132) and slugging percentage (.451), and that won’t bode well for the Cardinals’ veteran right-hander. This is a comp play, so keep that in mind – my money is on my 100♦ Three Dog Night – but for the value, and the Cards coming in after a long rainy night in D.C., I’ll lay the chalk with the red-hot Phils.
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1♦ PHILLIES