Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, July 26

Jesse Schule

Minnesota vs. Seattle
Pick: Over

The Mariners have won six of seven since the All Star break, and they have been locked in at the plate during the month of July. Dustin Ackley was 3-for-4 with a pair of doubles yesterday, and he's had plenty of success against the Twins scheduled starter Scott Diamond. Ackley is 4-for-8 with a home run lifetime versus the left-hander.

Diamond (5-9, 5.53 ERA) was torched for six runs on seven hits over just 4 2/3 innings in a 7-1 loss to Cleveland his last time out. He's winless in his last five appearances, and he's surrendered 19 runs during that span.

The Mariners hand the ball to Felix Hernandez, and Seattle's ace hasn't allowed a run in his last two starts. Hernandez (11-4, 2.43 ERA) is 6-0 in his last 10 starts, and the Mariners have won each of his last four.

He's likely to enjoy plenty of run support with the red hot M's lineup facing a struggling opposing pitcher today, and he may not need to be at his best to earn a victory over the Twins.

Joe Mauer has owned Felix in past meetings, hitting .424 with a pair of home runs in 33 career at bats. I don't expect the Twins to enjoy much success against Hernandez today, but they should get just enough to help push the total over the number.

Will Rogers

Tampa Bay vs. NY Yankees
Pick: Tampa Bay

Thanks to a rainout last night, Tampa Bay gets the benefit of a day off coming into their big weekend series at Yankees Stadium. But make no mistake about it, the Rays don't need any extra advantages right now, given their recent level of play. They have gone 17-3 in the month of July. I like them to take Friday's game.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Jeremy Hellickson vs. Yankees - Although they won Thursday afternoon in Texas, the Yankees still managed only two runs, the 9th time in the last 15 games they'd done so. I wish them good luck in going up against Jeremy Hellickso, who is 5-0 with a 2.19 ERA his last six starts.

2. CC Sabathia - The hefty lefty simply has not been his old self in 2013, particularly lately. The team has lost four of his last five starts, including three straight. He allowed seven runs in a loss to Boston his last start, which was his sixth straight start allowing at least one home run. Even worse for Yankees fans is the fact Sabathia is 1-2 with a 7.29 ERA in three starts this season vs. Tampa Bay.

3. X-Factor - I'd rather not talk about Alex Rodriguez, but what a distraction this has turned into. The Yankees aren't that good, and don't need outside distractions right now. Thanks to A-Rod, they have one.

Bruce Marshall

Cincinnati vs. LA Dodgers
Pick: Cincinnati

Odd as this might sound, the red-hot Dodgers have now lost three of their last four at home after Thursday's 5-2 loss to Mat Latos and the Reds. Considering the Blue had won 23 of 28 entering last night's contest, it points out the sort of odd quirk that can be capitalized upon by the nervy punter who doesn't make going into the teeth of a streak. For whatever reason, the Dodger offense has also bogged down its last four at Chavez Ravine, scoring just 4 runs total in that stretch. And for all of Clayton Kershaw's brilliance, remember that he is only 9-6 this season, and has a modest 3.15 career ERA vs. the Reds in six previous outings. Cincy's Homer Bailey has pitched in some bad luck lately, but he is capable of the brilliant effort as he demonstrated early this month when no-hitting the Giants, and let's not forget that despite LA's recent surge, the Reds still have a far superior record (59-44 vs. 53-48) this season and have beaten the Blue in 5 of the last 7 meetings. Value on the underdog Reds, a lot more formidale than the collection of teams the Dodgers have been beating lately.

Art Aronson

Minnesota vs. Seattle
Pick: Under

Scott Diamond (5-9, 5.53 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Diamond is coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up six runs off seven hits and three walks, unable to manage a strikeout over just 4 2/3's innings of work vs. the Indians on Sunday. Diamond takes his 3-3, 4.98 ERA into Seattle to throw opposite Felix Hernandez (11-4, 2.43 ERA) who K'd seven Astros in his first start back from the break, ultimately yielding four hits and one walk over six scoreless frames of work in his team's eventual 12-5 victory. "The King" continues to dominate, going 6-0 with a very respectable 2.34 ERA over his past ten starts; note that Hernandez has been particularly effective at home this season going 4-2 with a 2.64 ERA. Coming into Thursday, the O/U is 6-3-1 the last ten between these teams. I believe this one follows suit. Diamond looks to get off the schneid after going 0-3 his last three and Hernandez continues his dominant ways vs. the inconsistent Twins. Consider a second look at the "under" in this one.

Bryan Power

Texas vs. Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland

The Indians have a nice edge here as they had Thursday off while Texas was wrapping up a four-game set w/ the Yankees. Another edge the Tribe has is that the Rangers can't score right now and aren't playing well. Throw in the fact that this game is in Cleveland and I like the home team a lot here....

The Rangers were shutout yesterday afternoon by Hiroki Kuroda and the Yankees, thus having to settle for a split in the four-game series. The club has now lost 9 of 12 overall and against the Yankees scored just 10 runs total in the series. Overall, they have scored just 28 runs the last 12 games and are batting .165 w/ RISP during that time. Things will get no easier today against Indians starter Corey Kluber, who is working on a 12.7 scoreless innings streak.

Kluber has a 0.95 ERA his last three starts and has been especially good at home of late, with a 3-0 record and 1.52 ERA his last five starts at Progressive Field. Last month, he shut Texas down over eight innings, allowing just one run on six hits in a 5-2 Cleveland win on the road. Behind Kluber, expect the Tribe to roll here. 1* Cleveland.

Marc Lawrence

Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays

When Tampa Bay sends Jeremy Hellickson to the mound against CC Sabathia and the Bronx Bombers at Yankee Stadium in the opener of this three-game series, Hellickson will look to extend his current team start win streak to seven in a row, and his July team start streak to six wins in row here tonight. On the other side, Sabathia has fallen on hard times, losing each of his last three team starts with a 5.61 ERA to show for his efforts. With Hellickson in solid KW form with 20 strikeouts and 3 walks his last three starts, we'll back the better team, and the better in-form arm, here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Tampa Bay.

Kyle Hunter

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates continue to be underrated by the oddsmakers. Jeff Locke has a 2.11 ERA and is facing a Marlins offense that is easily the worst in baseball. Locke has an ERA under 2 on the road so far this year. I expected this line to be closer to -180 or -190. Pittsburgh has the best team ERA in baseball and Miami can't score. Pittsburgh is 6-1 in Locke's last 7 starts against a team with a losing record, and we know the Marlins definitely have a losing record. Lay the price here with the Pirates. Take Pittsburgh.

Rocketman

Milwaukee @ Colorado
Play: Colorado -143

The Milwaukee Brewers travel to Colorado to take on the Rockies on Friday night. Milwaukee is 4-14 this year when the total is 9 to 9 1/2. Milwaukee is 16-30 on the road this year. Milwaukee is scoring only 3.1 runs per game their past seven games overall where they have a team batting average of only .216. Colorado is allowing only 2.6 runs per game their past seven games overall. Tyler Chatwood gets the start for Colorado where he is 6-3 with a 2.48 ERA overall this year, 3-1 with a 3.63 ERA at home this season and 2-1 with a 1.74 ERA his last 3 starts. Wily Peralta gets the start for Milwaukee where he is 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA in his one start vs Colorado in his career. Chatwood is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA in his one start against Milwaukee in his career. We'll recommend a small play on Colorado tonight!

Jimmy Boyd

Chicago Cubs +160

The Cubs offense is rolling over their past seven games, putting up an average of 4.3 runs with a .261 batting average. Meanwhile, the Giants have scored just 2.6 runs per game over their past seven making the Cubs the hotter team coming into this matchup. The Giants have been a major disappointment this season so it is very surprising to see the Cubs listed as such heavy underdogs today.

I have to give the nod to Edwin Jackson over Matt Cain for today's starting pitcher matchup. Over his last three starts, Jackson has a 1.83 ERA compared to a 14.62 ERA from Cain in his last three starts. Jackson has six wins in 19 starts this season while Cain has six wins in 20 starts. With Jackson pitching so much better than Cain right now, the Cubs are an easy call in this game.

Ray Monohan

Kansas City Royals -115

James Shields has been a hard luck pitcher all season long. It seems like the better he throws the less offensive support he gets. Lately he has not been as sharp but the team has been playing better. I think these two trends can meet in the middle and make Shields and Kansas City a winner on Friday night at Chicago as slight road favorites. Sure this is a divisional game with a home dog but the Pale Hose are showing few signs of life these days...and Sox starter Jose Quintana has trouble when he has to work his way through a lineup more than a couple of times.

Chip Chirimbes

New York Nets at Washington
Play: New York Nets

Mets over Nationals- Hard to believe that both these clubs the Mets and the Nationals have 53 losses and that the Mets are favored on the road against anybody. But, although the Nats have won 22 of the last 30 meetings the Mets have been a winner on the road 24-23 including eight of their last 11 but they have Matt Harvey (8-2, 2.23 ERA) who is just the best in baseball right now. He has allowed only 94 hits in 137 innings and has a WHIP for the season of 0.89. Too tough to play against...take the Mets.

Jeffrey Brandes

Washington Nationals -1½ +109 Game 1

Pitchers:
New York Mets: Jenrry Mejia, RHP
Washington Nationals: Jordan Zimmermann, RHP 12-5, 3.01 ERA

Jenrry Mejia was activated from the DL to make this spot start. He had been on the DL since March 31 with inflammation in his right elbow. He last pitched in 2012, when he went 1-2 with a 5.63 ERA in five games, three of them for starts.

Jordan Zimmermann will take the mound after throwing the shortest start of his career on Sunday, lasting two innings in his first start since sitting out the All-Star Game with neck stiffness, which he believes has gone away.

Key Trends:
Washington is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games when playing NY Mets
NY Mets are 5-12-1 SU in its last 18 games ,when playing Washington
NY Mets are 2-3-1 SU in its last 6 games ,when playing on the road against Washington

Rob Vinciletti

Arizona Diamondbacks -135

Teams like Arizona that are home favorites that come in off a home favored win and scored 4 or less runs have won 8 of 9 vs teams Like the Padres that won on the road as an underdog in their last game and scored 10 or more runs. The Padres are off a 10-8 road win and Arizona won at home 3-1 over the Cubs. The Diamondbacks are 5-1 as a home favorite off a home win and scored 4 or less runs and San Diego has lost the last 4 times on the road off a road win and scored 10+ Runs. The Padres have lost 8 of the last 9 vs winning teams and are just 4-17 as a road dog from +125 to +150. They have E. Stults pitching tonight and his last 2 starts here in Arizona were nothing special as he has gone 12 innings allowing 7 runs. Delgado for the Diamondbacks has been a pleasant surprise so far with a 3.13 era. Look for Arizona to take the opener here tonight.

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Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle MarinersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Seattle Mariners -1.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Seattle is on fire as they have won 9 of their L/10 games.Hernandez the Mariners starter vs Minnesota tonight has won each of his last six decisions and has not allowed a run in his last 16 innings.Hernandez has gone 24 consecutive scoreless innings versus Minnesota. He is backed with a aggressive offense. During the month of July the Mariners led the Majors in home runs with 29 and rank second in runs, slugging percentage at .462, OPS at .808 and extra-base hits at 68 prior to Thursday night's game, where they team garnered 8 runs. Tonight I expect they will tee off on a Twins hurler that has struggled all season long as is evident by his blaoted ERA.