Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday July, 27

Rob Vinciletti

St.Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: St.Louis Cardinals

The Cards are to high a favorite for unit rated status, but appear to be the right side in this one. They fit a solid system that has won 12 of the last 14 times and plays on road favorites of -140 or more that are off a home favored win, vs an opponent off a road dog loss that scored 2 or less runs on 5 or more hits. St. Louis is averaging nearly 6 runs per game vs Left handers this season and has won 6 of the last 7. They have won both times this season as a road favorite from -150 to -175 and have a solid pitching advantage in this one. Lynn for the Cardinals has a 3.32 road era and has been solid over his last 3 starts posting a 0.47 era. He has won all 3 starts vs the Cubs. Chicago has T. Wood on the mound today and he has struggled with a 8.64 era over his past 3 starts. With the Cubs averaging just 2 runs per game over their past 7, we will back St. Louis here today.

Jesse Schule

Boston vs. NY Yankees
Pick: Over

The Yankees will be happy to be back in New York, coming off a tough West Coast road trip, losing five of seven games. The Red Sox have also been slumping, they have lost five of six, after being swept by the Blue Jays in Boston, and then losing two of three in Texas. It doesn't get any easier for the Red Sox, going up against the Yankees in the Bronx with a tough matchup on the mound tonight.

Phil Hughes will get the call for the Yankees, coming off a very solid outing, albeit in a losing effort. Hughes (9-8, 4.09 ERA) was on the wrong side of a pitcher's duel, allowing just two runs on four hits (two solo homers), over seven innings, and losing 2-1 in Oakland. He has allowed two runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. He's also gone 2-0 in his last three starts in the Bronx.

Boston has had some success against Hughes in the past, as Jacoby Ellsbury has gone 4 for 9 (.444) with a pair of doubles, Adrian Gonzalez has gone 4 for 8 (.500), and David Ortiz has gone 9 for 20 (.450) with three extra-base hits and a pair of homers.

The Red Sox will counter with Aaron Cook, who got roughed up his last time out. Cook (2-3, 3.50 ERA) allowed five runs on four hits, with the damage coming on a pair of home runs, in a 7-3 loss to the Blue Jays his last time out.

Raul Ibanez has enjoyed success hitting against Cook, going 5 for 11 (.455) with a pair of doubles and four RBIs in his career versus the right-hander. Nick Swisher has hit .375, with a home run in just eight at bats, but Swisher is questionable for tonight's game.

I wouldn't be surprised to see runs crossing the plate fast and furious in this game.

Marc Lawrence

Philadelphia vs. Atlanta
Pick: Philadelphia

When the Phillies meet the Braves in Atlanta Friday night they will send the league's newest multi-millionaire, Cole Hamels, to the mound knowing he is in solid KW form with 20 strikeouts and 5 walks in his last three starts. Hamels is also 3-0 with a 2.84 ERA in his last three starts in this park while and 13-6 in his last 19 team starts during June. With Atlanta's Ben Sheets sporting a wobbly 3-5 career team start mark against Philadelphia, including a 10.00 ERA in his home starts against the Phillies, look for Hamels to improve to 8-2 in his last 10 road team starts here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Philadelphia.

Chris Elliott

Tampa Bay vs. LA Angels
Pick: LA Angels -1.5

The Tampa Bay Rays (51-48) will give the ball to right hander Alex Cobb on Friday night when they take on the Los Angeles Angels (54-45). Cobb comes into this game with a record of 4-7 on the year with a 5.05 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP. In his last 5 starts he has allowed 19 runs in 24.2 innings for an ERA of 6.93. Cobb has faced the Angels twice in his career with the Rays winning once and losing once.

Los Angeles will counter with veteran right hander Dan Haren on Friday against the Rays. Haren is 7-8 on the year with an ERA of 4.76 and a WHIP of 1.39. He has given up 24 runs over 27.2 innings in his last 5 starts for an ERA of 7.82. Haren’s teams have a record of 4-1 at home and 8-3 overall when he is the starter against the Rays.

Tampa Bay is 8.5 games back and struggling to keep pace with the division leading New York Yankees. They are 5-5 in their last 10 games overall and 4-6 in their last 10 on the road. They swept the Angels in a 3 game set earlier this season at Tropicana Field but this will be a much improved Angels squad this time around. Los Angeles has really turned it on after a slow start and have climbed to within 5 games of the division leading Texas Rangers in the AL West. They are 7-3 in their last 10 at Angel Stadium.

Haren was one of my top 10 projected starters in the American League to start the season. Although he has struggled to date, I expect him to come on strong down the stretch and bring his numbers back up to par. Haren has a career record of 114-92 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Look for Haren to shut down the Rays hitters Friday and for the powerful Angel bats to get to Cobb early and often. Take the “Angels” to win -1.5 ATS and cash in the JUICE!

Jim Feist

Washington Nationals vs Milwaukee Brewers
Pick: Washington Nationals

The Milwaukee Brewers are in a free fall in the NL Central, now having lost seven straight games after Thursday's pummeling at the hands of the Nationals, 8-2. The Brewers are now 3-10 against the NL East. The Nationals have one of the better road records at 30-20. They actually average more runs (4.5) on the road then they do in their home park (4.3). The Nats also have a very good pen, with a 3.41 ERA overall and a 3.08 ERA on the road. Can't say the same for the Brewers who have a 4.73 ERA overall and a 5.79 ERA at home. Ross Detwiler starts for the Nationals with a 5-3 record and 3.01 ERA. Detwiler has been very good over his last three starts with the Nats winning all three and Detwiler posting a 1.89 ERA. Michael Fiers is the best the Brewers have, so if they are going to break this losing streak then tonight is their best chance. Fiers is 3-4 in nine games with a 1.99 ERA. However, Fiers has pitched in bad luck of late, allowing just three total runs and watching the Brewers lose all three games. Can't go against the Nats winning streak here on Friday. They are the hot team and the Brewers are ice cold. Take Washington.

Dave Cokin

Cleveland Indians vs Minnesota Twins
Pick: Cleveland Indians

Cleveland is not hitting much right now, and they are not especially offensive against lefties. But I'm not buying Scott Diamond, and it looks as though hitters are starting to figure out his pedestrian offerings. I'll back the Indians to top the Twins.

Scott Spreitzer

Red Sox / Yankees Under 10.5

Both of tonight's scheduled starters, Aaron Cook and Phil Hughes have been on personal "heaters" of late. Cook has posted a 1.91 ERA & 0.78 WHIP in his last four starts, while Hughes has been hot for most of his last five starts and he owns a 3.94 ERA & 1.17 WHIP in 10 home starts this season. The Yankees have not been scoring runs of late, and both teams average just 4.5 rpg in tonight's situation...Boston in road night games against righties and New York in home night games against righties. I believe the total has been set too high and I'm recommending a play on the Under on Friday night.

CFL Predictions

Toronto / Montreal Alouettes: Over 56.5

Montreal is a very easy team for me to figure out right now from a betting perspective. Either I'm betting against them or I'm betting the Over. In this case, I've chosen to play this game Over the total.

The Alouettes defense has been a disaster so far this season. They've given up at least 30 points in every single game this season. Here's an excerpt from last week's Montreal/Hamilton write-up talking about the Montreal defense:

"Montreal's defense is a bottom 3 unit in my rankings so far this season. They've allowed 38, 30 and 32 points in their first three games. The struggling Alouettes defense is 6th in the CFL in total yards allowed, 7th in passing yards allowed, 6th in rushing yards allowed, 6th in points allowed and ranked dead last in red zone defense."

Those defensive numbers did not improve one bit after Montreal's struggling stop unit gave up 39 points and over 450 yards of total offense to Hamilton last week. Expect Ricky Ray and the Argos to put up their fair share of points here against a bottom feeder defense. It's worth noting Toronto feasted on a Calgary defense that ranks barely ahead of Montreal on my defensive ratings in Week 2 scoring 39 points and I expect Toronto to reach the 30's in this game.

But we should also expect a stronger performance for Montreal offensively in this game. QB Anthony Calvillo has struggled with accuracy at times but most of the time it is due to not receiving enough pass protection from an OL that has struggled to give him time in the pocket to throw the football at times. The problem for Toronto is their defense has not been great at getting pressure on the QB. The Argos have only registered 7 sacks in 4 games this season which is an average of 1.75 sacks per game—not the kind of ratio you want to see against a Montreal offense and a QB that is capable of picking you apart if they are not pressured at the line of scrimmage. That is the key handicap for Montreal's offense. Can the opponent provide the necessary pressure from their defensive front to negatively impact Anthony Calvillo and the Alouettes offense? Hamilton was able to get pressure on Calvillo last week. I'm not entirely convinced Toronto has a defense capable of duplicating those efforts here. It's also worth noting Toronto's worst defensive game of the season came against a strong Hamilton offense where they allowed 36 points to the Tiger-Cats. They also gave up 36 points to a Calgary offense without Drew Tate for most of that game. Their other two opponents were Edmonton and Winnipeg--neither of which will be confused with being explosive offensive squads so in a lot of respects, the jury is still somewhat out on how good this Argos defense truly is especially against some of the better QB's and offenses in the league.

Montreal has owned Toronto in recent seasons including winning all 4 games last year and that's why I'm staying away from a bet against Montreal here despite the fact I can't trust them to lay points given their woes on the defensive side of the football but I think we can expect a higher scoring game and some offensive fireworks at Percival Molson Stadium with a reasonable total to deal with.

Kyle Hunter

Red Sox / Yankees
Play: Yankees

The Red Sox are starting to get healthy, but they’ll have to make a major charge to get into the playoffs this season. Let’s take a look at the first game of this series.

Boston has lost five of their last six games coming into this key matchup. Boston has gotten Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford back in the lineup in the past couple weeks. The Red Sox did lose David Ortiz though right around the same time, so they aren’t completely healthy. Ortiz was the team’s best hitter so far this season, and they need him back as soon as possible. Though they have been short-handed, the offense ranks third in the majors in runs scored. Boston’s pitching staff has really let them down this year. The Red Sox top starter this season has been rookie Felix Doubront, and his ERA is a pedestrian 4.54.

New York only went 2-5 in their seven game trip to the West Coast. Still, the Yankees great play over the last couple months has put some serious separation between them and the rest of the AL East. The Yankees lead the majors with 153 home runs. Curtis Granderson leads the team with 27 long balls. Robinson Cano started off the season slowly, but he is all the way up to a .319 average and 22 home runs on the year. Alex Rodriguez is on the disabled list and will this series. Ichiro Suzuki will get his first taste of the Red Sox/Yankees rivalry after being traded to the Yankees earlier this week. Ichiro’s trade to the Yankees caught a lot of people off guard, but he should be a nice acquisition for the Yankees.

Phil Hughes has pitched much better of late, and Aaron Cook just doesn’t have the type of stuff to shut down this Yankees lineup. Look for New York to pile up the runs here.

SPORTS WAGERS

Cincinnati/COLORADO over 10½

The most extreme hitters' park in baseball thanks to its high altitude, Coors Field remains an offensive boon even since the introduction of humidors to keep baseballs from drying out. No park in baseball has been as hitter-friendly in modern times. The Coors Field effect should definitely come into play here against two horrible starters.

Colorado hits a league-leading .289 at home and they’ll face Bronson Arroyo. Arroyo's last start at Coors didn’t last into the second inning after he gave up six runs in the first. In five starts at Coors Field over the past three years, covering just 26 frames, Arroyo has surrendered eight bombs and posted an ERA of 6.84.

Drew Pomeranz is worse. Starting at pitcher-friendly Petco Park in his last start, Pomeranz gave up nine hits and seven runs in three frames. In 43 innings this season, he’s walked 22 batters and has yet to win at home in three starts. Facing a strong offensive club, Pomeranz is on a strict 80-pitch limit. This looks like a 4½-hour ordeal that has hitters licking their chops. We are too.

Washington +120 over MILWAUKEE

Milwaukee has lost seven straight and the bullpen continues to get abused. Between the starters and bullpen, the Brewers have allowed seven runs or more in four straight games. With the pen struggling so miserably, extra pressure is on the starters to not only perform well but to last deep into games.

Michael Fiers has been one of the only bright spots to a disappointing season for the Brewers. He comes in with a 1.96 ERA after nine starts. He has 58 K’s in 60 frames with just 13 walks issued but his pedigree reeks of skepticism. He’s 27 years old and has been in the minors for years. His groundball/line-drive/fly-ball splits are not pretty at 31%/25%/44%. He’s also been greatly aided by an 82% strand rate and an unusually low 3% HR/fb rate for a fly-ball pitcher, With luck turning on the Brewers and having to face a hot foe, chances are luck turns against Fiers too.

Meanwhile, the Nationals have reeled off six in a row in which they’ve scored five or more in each game. Without anyone really noticing, Ross Detwiler has been on fire this month (1.89 ERA). He has an elite 59% groundball rate and it sure doesn’t hurt watching and learning from the best starting pitching staff in baseball. Hot vs. cold and brittle, taking back a price, gets the call.

MLB Predictions

Cincinnati Reds -108

The Reds enter tonight's game off of a sweep in Houston, and have now won 7 straight games. They are 1st int he NL Central with their 58-40 record (27-22 on the road). The Rockies are a different story, as they have dropped 6 of their last 8 games and continue to slide. They are 5th in the NL West with a 37-60 record, and are just 20-29 at home. Tonight Bronson Arroyo will take the mound for Cincinnati, and he is 5-6 on the season with a 3.98 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and .273 opponents batting average. He is 4-4 on the road with a lower 3.74 ERA. Over his last three starts he has had two quality starts with a rough outing in the middle - the quality starts included a complete game shutout, and his latest going 6 innings allowing just 5 hits and 2 earned runs. Drew Pomeranz will pitch for Colorado as he looks to improve on his 1-5 record, 4.98 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, and .253 opponents batting average. In his last two starts he has been roughed up for 14 hits and 12 earned runs over just 8 innings of work. Take note that the Reds are one of the leagues hottest teams right now going 14-2 in their last 16 games overall, while the Rockies are one of the coldest teams in the league going 7-14 in their last 21 games. The Reds are 22-8 in their last 30 games as a favorite, and 6-0 in their last 6 road games. Take note that Cincy is 7-2 in Arroyo's last 9 with 5 days rest, 9-4 in his last 13 starts as a favorite, and 19-7 in his last 26 road starts vs a team with a losing record. The Rockies are just 7-21 in their last 28 games as a home underdog, 37-81 in their last 118 games as an underdog overall, and 22-46 in their last 68 vs a team with a winning record. The Rockies are also 1-4 in Pomeranz's last 5 starts. The pitching match up favors the Reds, and I don't see the struggling Rockies ending their winning streak in tonight's ball game. Take the Reds.

MATT RIVERS

Friday's free play is the Phillies to continue their winning ways in Atlanta against the Braves.

Despite being in last place in the N.L. East, hopes are high these days in the Phillies camp, as they signed pitcher Cole Hamels to a new deal, and they come into this weekend off four straight one-run comeback wins at home.

Overall the Phils are on an 8-3 run, and they feel they have enough time to nab a Wild Card spot. If that is truly the case, they will need to open this weekend series versus their division rivals with a win.

Ben Sheets has turned back the clock. After not having pitched in the majors in two years, Sheets has worked 12 scoreless innings in his return back to the bigs, and has picked up wins in his both of his starts. I have a feeling the scoreless innings streak is going to be snapped early tonight.

Atlanta is only 5-5 their last ten games, and the visitor in this series is on an 8-1 run the last nine series meetings.

I will side with the Phillies tonight.

4* PHILADELPHIA

Sean Murphy

Boston vs. NY Yankees
Pick: Under

Most are expecting a slugfest in the Bronx tonight, but I'm not so sure.

The Red Sox have been held to three runs or less in three straight, and six of their last seven games overall. They're averaging just a shade north of four runs per nine innings on the road this season, so despite their winning road record, it's not as if they've been offensive juggernauts.

The Yankee bats have cooled off considerably as well. They've scored only 21 runs over their last seven games, and have seen the 'under' cash at a 9-1 clip over their last 10 contests. While Yankee Stadium is known as a hitters' park, keep in mind, games here are averaging only 8.8 runs this season. In fact, excluding pushes, the Red Sox and Yankees have combined to post a 36-57 o/u record in road and home games respectively.

Aaron Cook will take the ball for the Sox on Friday. He's not going to overwhelm anyone with his stuff, but he has been doing a nice job of keeping the ball down in the zone, and incuding a ton of ground balls. As a result, he's managed to keep opposing teams in check for the most part, allowing only eight earned runs over his last five starts, spanning 33 1/3 innings pitched.

He'll be aided by the fact that the Yankees are undermanned, with Alex Rodriguez sidelined, and Nick Swisher unlikely to play on Friday as well.

Behind Cook is a Red Sox bullpen that has been sharp on the road this season, posting a collective 2.36 ERA.

New York will turn to Phil Hughes for the opener of this series. His home starts are averaging 8.8 total runs, in line with the Yankees season average in this park. The 'under' has gone 7-3 in his 10 home starts to date. Hughes has given up three earned runs or less in each of his last five outings. His last two home outings against the Red Sox have totaled just three and seven runs.

The Yankees bullpen has been serviceable lately, recording a 3.42 ERA over their last 10 games.

This is a typical total for a matchup involving these two teams, which both carry reputations as potent offensive clubs. While both lineups boast plenty of pop, I'm not convinced we're going to see a lot of fireworks on this night, and given the generous number we're working with, I'll take a chance on the 'under'.

Vegas Experts

St Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
Play: St Louis Cardinals

When the St Louis Cardinals and Lance Lynn (12-4, 3.10 ERA) take on Chicago Cubs and Travis Wood (4-5, 4.33 ERA) it will be Deja-Vue. Cardinals offense which ranks first in the National League in runs scored (485, 4.9 per/game) pounded Woods for 2 yard-ball, 7 runs in a victory last Sunday so expect much of the same as the hurler has now given up 5 yard-ball, 20 runs the past three starts. With Lynn a perfect 3-0 with a 0.94 ERA in three outings against the Cubs this season stick with Cardinals.