Lenny Del Genio
Philadelphia vs. Atlanta
Pick: Philadelphia
When we look at tonight's two starting pitchers, there are two things we cannot believe. One is that the Phillies actually paid Cole Hamels $144 million over six years. Not that the lefty isn't a great pitcher; he is. But part of the reason the Phillies are in the position they're in is that they actually have TOO MUCH money invested in pitching! Two, down in Atlanta, Ben Sheets has "come back from the dead" w/ back to back victories after being on the shelf for nearly 2 years. Though it has been a disastrous season overall for Philly, they are coming off a sweep of Milwaukee (winning every game by a 7-6 final) and stand a good shot here against a Braves team that is a terrible 6-12 vs. lefties at Turner Field this season (-$920). Not surprisingly then, we find Atlanta at 1-5 the last six times hosting the Phillies, scoring just eight runs total in those losses. Hamels has a 17-3 TSR on the road when the money line is -100 to -150.
Tony George
Royals / Mariners Over 7.5
This line confuses me but I am drinking the Koolaid anyway. A 4-1 game last night (seattle win), but KC's offense should find some runs tonight against Beavan whose home ERA is 5.76 this year and KC can put up some runs, the fact their starting pitching gets them in a hole out of the gate and their bullpen is weak and weary, allows other team to outscore them. This is a low total considering the combined ERA's between Seattle and KC's starters tonight in their last 3 games is a combined 15.75 and Gutherie for KC had 1 start and gave up 9 earned runs in 5 innings in his debut!
Jimmy Boyd
Arizona Diamondbacks -135
The D-backs dropped the first game of the series, but I expect them to bounce back strong here against a New York club that has dropped 12 of its last 14. Also, keep in mind that the Mets have dropped 6 of their last 7 in Arizona.
Shockingly enough, the Mets are 0-9 in their last 9 games versus a right-handed starter. Their struggles against the righties figures to continue with the way Collmenter has been dealing. The D-backs have won 3 of his last 4 starts, during which he has given up just 5 earned runs in 22 innings. The Diamondbacks are 9-3 in Collmenter's last 12 home starts and 5-0 in his last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
The Mets, meanwhile, are 0-3 in Niese's last 3 starts, and he has given up 11 earned runs in 21 innings during this stretch. Take Arizona.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
TEXAS -135 Over Chicago: Google News Play Gotta love the Rangers here, especially with double the revenge. First was the fact that Chris Sale was the starter when the Rangers took their worst loss of the year, a 19-2 defeat in Chicago back on July 3rd and the second revenge factor is the fact that Chicago also swept Texas in that series. Chris Sale has been special for the Sox this year, but after allowing 5 ER's in his last start may he be tiring a bit? In his last 2 years he has pitched just 94 total inning, but this year he is already at 117 innings pitched. The Ranger offense has been struggling for much of the month, but they showed signs of coming out of it in their last series vs Boston. Texas does average 5.4 rpg at home and when Darvish has been on the mound at home they have averaged 6.6 rpg for him. Yu is 6-1 at home with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. The White Sox score very well at home, but on the road they have averaged 4.08 rpg, including putting up just 3.9 rp/9 innings off of righties away from home. Payback should be in order here by a team that is probably the best in baseball.
3 UNIT PLAYS
MILWAUKEE -131 over Washington: Tough to go against a Washington team that has won 6 in a row and has allowed exactly 2 runs in each game, but I feel this is the spot to do so. Ross Detwiler has allowed just 1 ER in his last 2 starts since returning to the rotation, but both were at home and vs offensively challenged Atlanta and the Mets. Now he is one the road vs a Milwaukee squad that scores 5.16 rpg at home, including 5.38 rp/9 innings at home vs lefties. Michael Fiers has been very steady for the Brewers this year, but not allot of wins as the run support just hasn't been there for him. Michael is 3-4 on the year, but with a 1.96 ERA, while at home he has gone 1-3 with a 2.78 ERA. The Brewers are just 2-4 in his last 6 starts, but he carries an 0.88 ERA in those 6 games. Incredible. The Nats do score score 4 rpg on the road, but should be hard pressed to get to that tonight. Ross is 4-3 with a 3.45 ERA at night, while Michael is 2-0 with a very nice 0.45 ERA in 3 night starts and that seems to be the time that he gets some run support as the Brewers have scored 4.7 rpg for him at night. The Nats are playing well right now, but this looks like the perfect spot for them to take a fall. Let's just hope that Michael will go all 9 and keep that horrid Brewers pen out of it. LOL. Look for milwaukee to bounce back tonight.
Boston/ NY Yanks Under 10.5: Boston's offense has been sputtering of late and the loss of Ortiz certainly hasn't helped. The BoSox have scored just 3.2 rpg in their last 5 games and just came off a series in Texas where they scored 6 runs in the 3 games. The Yankees offense has also been sputtering of late as they have averaged just 3.9 rpg in their last 10 games, with the Under going 9-1 in those games. Granted the Yanks played 7 of those games in non-hitters parks (Seattle and Oakland), but this is their first game back from that trip and it may take them a game or two to get their timing back. They will also be facing Aaron Cook, who has pitched very well of late. Aaron is just 1-2 in his last 4 starts, but he has a 1.91 ERA in those starts. The Sox have given him just 3.8 rpg worth of support in those starts and just 3.5 rpg worth of support in his 2 road starts this year, where he is 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA. Phil Hughes has been pitching very well for New York of late. in his last 9 starts Phill has allowed more than 3 ER's just once, while he comes in with a 3.94 ERA at home on the year. In his last 3 home starts he has allowed just 4 ER's in 23 innings of work and his home starts this year have averaged just 8.9 rpg. We Also have solid pens in this one, especially a Boston pen that has a 2.36 ERA on the road. THis game should not come all that close to double figures.
POWER ANGLE PLAY
LA ANGELS -162 over Tampa Bay: One of the things that I realized in the last 8 weeks is that you don't have to pick just dogs or favorites at 130 or less to be considered a good handicapper. For the first part of the year I went with a ton of totals and kinda got caught up with the Marco contest trying to play allot of games at under 120 and it cost me. My hats off to Marco cause that was an unbelievable streak and very hard to do. Well after looking over some of the pro's pages I have seen higher juiced games being played. So with all the poor bullpens screwing up totals I have adapted and started to throw in some higher juiced games at times and it has helped. Still I have made just 8 top plays on favorites of over 150 this year and have gone 7-1 in those games and I really like this one. Alex Cobb has really struggled of late, going 1-4 with a 7.02 EA in his last 5 starts. Alex is 2-2 with a 5.54 ERA on the road, but just 1-2 with a 6.43 ERA in his last 3 starts away from home. Now he must take to the road again and face an Angels squad that has averaged 5.5 rpg in their last 10 games and as the season has progressed they just seem to be getting better offensively. The Ray's have not been getting better as they have averaged just 3.9 rpg in their last 10 and 3.4 in their last 5. Dan Haren was horrid before his stint on the DL, but he came back to hold down a strong Texas offense allowing just 2 ER's in 6 innings. Dan is also 2-1 with a 2.60 ERA in his last 4 starts vs the Rays. Tampa Bay is really outmatched at the plate and on the mound and will not walk away with a win here. See Below For The Power Angle For This Play.
POWER ANGLES FOR TODAY (10-1 RUN) (19-9 +7.31 UNITS)
Play against all teams (Toronto) with a ML line of -100 to -150 if they are off off 2 or more consecutive Overs, vs a team that is is 4 or more consecutive Unders. This Play is 30-13 the last 5+ seasons. Play on Detroit +107 over Toronto.
Since 2004 the Rays are 1-17 as a road dog of 130 or more if they lost by 1 run in their starters last start and he had a WHIP of at least 1.35 in that start. Play on LA Angels -164 over Tampa Bay
Larry Ness
Chicago vs. Texas
Pick: Texas
Rookie Yu Darvish of Texas takes on Chicago’s Chris Sale, who is in his first season as a starter. Both enter this game with impressive seasons. Darvish is 11-6 with a 3.88 ERA over 18 starts, in which the Rangers have gone 12-6. He’s allowed 98 hits in his 116 innings along with 132 Ks. He’s been quite successful here at home, going 7-1 with a 3.50 ERA. One also needs to note that the Rangers have won 20 of their last 27 home games against teams with winning records and are 44-19 in their last 63 home games, overall. Sale is 11-3 with a 2.37 ERA this season in 17 starts and one relief appearance (team is 12-5 ) and will try to slow down the Rangers, who've posted a league-leading 31 home wins, where Texas averages 5.42 RPG. Sale had been 8-0 with a 1.61 ERA over a 10-start stretch from May 17-July 15 but was ‘rocked’ in Saturday's 7-1 loss at Detroit. The 23-year-old left-hander surrendered a career worst-tying five runs, seven hits and four walks over seven innings, suffering his first loss in nine career road starts. Was this the first sign of a crack in Sale’s ‘armor?’ I’m taking the Rangers.
Bryan Power
Pittsburgh vs. Houston
Pick: Pittsburgh
Those of you fortunate enough to have been following my free plays this week already know that I've made this space a personal ATM by going against the Houston Astros. I gave out a free winner on Cincinnati in every game of their three-game sweep of Houston and I easily could have gone against the Astros last night as they lost 5-3 to the Pirates. (Note that I did cash the Under in that Pit-Hou matchup and my free play won 4-1 on Seattle!).
Tonight, it's back to going against the Astros, who have now lost 10 straight games and 23 of their last 25. They've been outscored 72-30 during the 10-game losing streak and were on the verge of being shutout in last night's series opener before tallying some runs in a futile attempt at a comeback. It was their seventh loss in a row to Pittsburgh, who has outscored them 40-20 during that stretch.
Houston certainly won't be happy to see Pirates right-hander Jeff Karstens in this matchup. Karstens is 3-0 with a 1.86 ERA over his last four starts and going back to last season he's won four starts in a row vs. the Astros, allowing just one run in almost 31 innings of work! On the other end of the spectrum, you have Houston starter Jordan Lyles, who has a 5-23 team start record his last 28 starts. The Astros simply can not be backed under any circumstances at this time.
Jack Jones
Minnesota Twins -130
The Minnesota Twins have a big edge on the mound Friday with Scott Diamond over Cleveland's Josh Tomlin. Coming off a sweep at the hands of the Chicago White Sox, the Twins will be motivated to get back in the win column tonight. They also had Thursday off, while the Indians played yesterday.
Diamond is 8-4 with a 3.17 ERA and 1.264 WHIP in 14 starts this season, including 5-1 with a 2.72 ERA and 1.122 WHIP in seven home starts. Tomlin is 5-7 with a 5.34 ERA and 1.374 WHIP in 15 starts, and 3-3 with a 6.13 ERA and 1.487 WHIP in seven road outings.
Tomlin is 1-2 with a 5.92 ERA and 1.356 WHIP in four career starts against Minnesota. He gave up five earned runs and 11 base runners over 6 innings of a 4-7 loss to the Twins in his last start against them on June 2nd. Diamond is 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.286 WHIP in three career starts against Cleveland. He allowed zero earned runs and seven base runners over 7 innings of a 6-3 win against the Indians in his last start against them on June 3rd.
The Twins are 39-15 as a home favorite of -125 to -150 over the last 3 seasons. Minnesota is 6-1 in Diamond's last 7 home starts. The Indians are 19-40 in their last 59 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Cleveland is 1-6 in its last 7 games following a win. The Indians are 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter. Bet the Twins Friday.
Jeff Alexander
Cincinnati Reds -110
The Reds, who have won 7 in a row and 14 of 16, are worth a shot at this price against a Colorado club that has lost 6 of its last 8. The Rockies have been a terrible investment as an underdog at 37-81 in their last 118 games in the role. They are even just 7-21 in their last 28 games as a home underdog. The Reds, on the other hand, are 22-8 in their last 30 games as a favorite. We'll make this value play on the Reds.
Dave Price
Toronto Blue Jays -116
The Blue Jays are showing value at this price with Carlos Villanueva on the hill. They have won each of his 4 starts, and he has posted an ERA of only 2.31 in those games. His ERA is just 1.59 in 3 home starts. Detroit's Rick Porcello, other other hand, has an ERA of 4.40. The Tigers have found ways to win despite often lackluster efforts from Porcello, but I don't expect them to get enough runs off Villanueva to get the job done here. The Blue Jays are 12-5 in their last 17 games as a favorite of -110 to -150, and I'll get behind them in this price range.
SPORTS WAGERS
BALTIMORE -103 over Oakland
The A’s were beaten by the Blue Jays yesterday after a torrid run that saw them win 14 of 16 games. Chances are the cooling period continues. A close look at the A’s reveals a team with a BA of .229, the worst in the majors. On the road, that batting average is not much better at .234. Four regulars are batting under .217. Four others are batting between .246 and .259. This is a team that had everything go their way for a month and as a result, they’re overvalued.
Jarrod Parker’s surface stats do not come with full support. He’s benefitted from pitching at Oakland’s Coliseum but on the road he has a 4.08 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP and a 39% groundball rate. Regression is in his forecast.
Zach Britton was whacked in his season debut because of the six walks he surrendered in four frames. After that ugly outing, he responded with a six-inning, four hit gem against the Indians in Cleveland in which he walked just two and didn’t allow a run. In two starts since his promotion, Britton has induced 26 groundball outs against seven fly-ball outs for an off the charts groundball rate of 78%. He was burning it up at Triple-AAA Norfolk before his call-up and is certainly on our radar after that last start. This is a bargain.