Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, July 30,2010

Steve Merril
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New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
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A big series between the top two teams in the A.L. East starts on Friday night in Tampa Bay as the Rays host the Yankees. New York is sending the struggling Phil Hughes to the mound. He's 2-1 with a 5.19 ERA in his last three starts. The righty is sporting a 6.26 ERA over his last seven starts and he is struggling due to the increased innings he’s pitched. Hughes has given up at least six hits in five straight starts and in eight of his last nine starts overall. He hasn't started against the Rays since 2007 when he went 1-1 in two outings. B.J. Upton (2-6), Carl Crawford (2-5), Carlos Pena (2-3), Jason Bartlett (1-1), and Reid Brignac (1-1) all hit Hughes well. Tampa has won six straight games and seven of their last eight games overall. They are 25-13 against the A.L. East whom they score an average of 5.8 runs per game against. After a slow start, Wade Davis has bounced back big time for Tampa Bay. The righty is 3-0 with a 2.11 ERA giving up just five runs over his last 21.3 innings of work. Davis is 1-1 against the Yankees defeating them the last time they met. He held New York to two runs and seven hits in 5.7 innings of work. Mark Teixeira (1-7), Nick Swisher (0-4), and Juan Miranda (0-2) have poor numbers against Davis. The Yankees are hitting just .256 on the road, and since we expect Tampa Bay to hit Hughes well, we’ll recommend a play on the Rays in this game tonight.

Cajun Sports
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Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Cincinnati Reds
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The Cincinnati Reds host the Atlanta Braves for a three-game weekend set beginning on Friday July 30 with the first pitch at 7:10PM EST. The Reds are 40-28 in night games this season, 14-5 after 4 straight games where they committed no errors, 23-9 after allowing 4 runs or less in 3 straight games and 18-5 with a bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.000 the last 5 games this season. Atlanta is 11-22 in road games versus a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 this season. The Reds will send Johnny Cueto to the bump with a 5-1 record at home, ERA of 3.63 and a WHIP of 0.769. Cincinnati is 12-6 in Cueto’s last sixteen starts, 6-1 when he takes the hill at home and 11-1 following a quality start in his last outing. Overall, the Reds have had the edge when playing in the Queen City posting a record of 6-3 versus the Braves the last three seasons. Lay the chalk with the Reds as they get a game one victory on Friday night.
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PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Cincinnati Reds 5 Atlanta Braves 4

MARC LAWRENCE
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Chicago Cubs @ Colorado Rockies
PICK: Chicago Cubs
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The Cubs wrap up a week-long road trip when the meet the Rockies in Colorado in the opener of a three-game series at Coors Field tonight. Chicago sends the revitalized arm of Tom Gorzelanny to the mound knowing he is 4-1 with a 2.13 ERA in his five starts since re-entering the Cubs' starting rotation, including wins in each of his last four efforts. With Jeff Francis just 2-3 with an 8.78 ERA in his career team starts against Chicago, look for Colorado to get rocked here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Cubs.

Jack Jones

Colorado Rockies -116
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I really like the Rockies in this game as they look to get on a winning streak after ending their dreadful losing streak last night with a victory over Pittsburgh. The Rockies are a very streaky team, and I look for them to turn it on from here on out now that they are finally getting healthy. Starter Jeff Francis is 1-0 with a 2.65 ERA over his last 3 starts. Chicago's Ryan Dempster sports a 4.34 ERA and 1.821 WHIP in his last 3 outings.
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Dempster owns a woeful 7.42 ERA and 1.648 WHIP in 9 lifetime starts against Colorado. The Cubs are 9-20 in Dempster's last 29 road starts. The Rockies are 74-36 in their last 110 home games. The Rockies are 24-11 in Francis' last 35 starts vs. a team with a losing record. COlorado is 57-26 in their last 83 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Bet the Rockies Friday.

JIM FEIST
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ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS/NEW YORK METS
TAKE: NEW YORK METS
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The Mets sure are happy to return home after a disastrous road trip. Thursday's 4-0 win over the Cardinals gave the Mets their fist series win in more than a month. The Mets are still 6 1/2 games back of Atlanta in the NL East while St Louis once again dropped out of first place in the NL Central. Mike Pelfry had been one of the best pitchers for the Mets until his recent bad run. Pelfrey is 10-5 with a 4.00 ERA but that includes a 0-2 run his last three games with a 10.45 ERA. Ian Kennedy will start for the D'backs here on Friday. Kennedy has a decent ERA of 4.10 for a team with an overall poor pitching staff. By virtue of playing for Arizona, Kennedy will take a lot of losses even if he's pitching half way decent. I will be on the Mets today, mainly because they are such a good home team, now 32-17 at Citi Field. Citi Field is one of the better pitcher parks, in fact, it's the fourth toughest hitter park in baseball. Arizona is just 13-36 on the road after Thursday's loss. A terrible road team against a very good home club, toss in line of only 130 to 140 on the Mets and I can't pass on the home team here. Take the Mets.

EZWINNERS
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St. Louis Cardinals -300
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Just like yesterday's free play on the Colorado Rockies, this game comes with a huge price tag so I would use it to provide value in a parlay with another selection. The Cardinals ace Chris Carpenter has dominated the Pittsburgh Pirates in his career. In fourteen career starts against the Pirates, Carpenter is 11-1 with an ERA of 2.29. Carpenter is in great form right now as he is 2-0 in his last three starts with an ERA of only 1.96. The Cardinals bats should be able to provide Carpenter with the run support he needs against Pittsburgh's starting pitcher Jeff Karstens. Karstens is 0-3 in his last three starts with an ERA of 4.76. The Pirates are only 2-8 in the last ten meetings with the Cardinals and I don't look for their luck to change in this game. Play on St. Louis.

BRAD DIAMOND SPORTS
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Philadelphia over Washington
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I remember a few years back when the Nationals gave the Phillies problems. However, not tonight, not with newly acquired Roy Oswalt on the hill. The Phillies are 38-14 in this series, winning 19 of the last 26 meetings in Washington. With the Phillies on a seven game win streak (before Thursday), taking six straight versus right-handed hurlers, the Diamond looks for the Phillies hitting party to continue down in D. C.

Jimmy Moore
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Seattle @ Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota
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I usually don't like playing favorites this big but this play is too strong to pass up. The Twins are in a dogfight for the lead in their division and they are solid at home. Minnesota has been strong at home against Seattle lately and the Mariners can't have much motivation sitting in last place.

Tom Freese
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New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays
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Tampa Bay starter Wade Davis has allowed 5 runs total in his last 3 starts. The Rays are 4-4 vs. the Yankees this year. Tampa Bay is is 91-44 against the money line when the total is 9.0 to 9.5. The Rays are 14-1 vs. the money line in home games when playing a team with win percentage of over 62%. New starter Phillip Hughes has allowed 22 runs in his last 29 innings of work. The Yankees are 1-4 with Hughes as road favorites of -110 to -150.

VEGAS EXPERTS
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Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds
Play: Cincinnati Reds
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The Cincinnati Reds host the Atlanta Braves tonight at 7:10 PM ET in the first game of the series. This tip is all about the pitching matchup. Medlen is on the mound for the Braves and hasn’t been pitching so well the last few starts of the season. In his last three starts, he has a 4.74 ERA and a 1.316 WHIP. On the other side of the matchup, Cueto starts for the Cincinnati Reds. With a 1.29 ERA and 0.905 WHIP in his last three starts, Cueto has been pitching excellent. Cincinnati’s Bullpen is hot (ERA under 1.50 the last five games), which puts the Reds in a good situation. The Reds have gone 10-2 in that situation. The Reds are going to have an easy win against the Braves tonight. Play on Cincinnati!

LEE KOSTROSKI

Atlanta Braves @ Cincinnati Reds
PICK: Cincinnati Reds
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Kris Medlen was on a roll in May and June as a starter for the Braves but he was pushed back into the bullpen just before the all star break. Medlen struggled in his time back as a reliever and his first start returning to the rotation was a rough one last week. Atlanta still won that game and the Braves own an amazing record in Medlen starts but this should be a difficult match-up. Medlen allowed eight hits and five runs last week in Florida and his numbers on the road are much worse than at home, with a 4.05 ERA, over a full point higher than at home. Medlen owns a 6-2 record for the season but he will be matched up with another excellent pitcher in tonight?s game.
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Johnny Cueto has endured plenty of ups and downs in his short MLB career but he is on perhaps the best roll of his three years with the Reds right now. Cueto has been instrumental in the playoff chase for Cincinnati with his 10-2 record and over his last seven starts he has only allowed as many as two runs once. His ERA is 0.96 over his last seven starts with opponents batting just .205. Cueto has only allowed one home run in that span and he allowed just three hits in six innings in his last start against the Braves.
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Atlanta owns a slightly better record than Cincinnati at the moment but the Braves are a losing road team with a 24-30 team record away from home and Atlanta is playing at a below .500 clip since the break with inconsistent run production and shaky pitching. Atlanta is batting just .253 on the road this season and this will be a tough turnaround after an afternoon game in Washington Thursday while the Reds enjoyed an off day after the short trip back from Milwaukee. The Braves are just 3-9 in the last twelve games in Cincinnati and this is a key series for the Reds to prove that they belong among the NL elite.
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Cincinnati is 12-4 in the last 16 Cueto starts and the Reds are batting .303 in the last ten games against right-handed pitching. The Reds have suffered in the bullpen at times this season but in the last ten games Reds relievers own a 2.06 ERA and Cincinnati pitching has not allowed more than four runs in any of the last six games. The Reds have averaged nearly six runs per game scored in the past ten contests and Cincinnati owns an excellent home field edge with a 31-22 record at the Great American Ball Park. Take advantage on a favorable price to take one of the NL?s top teams and a top NL starter at home.

Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on New York Yankees -104
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While Davis has pitched better in recent starts, it can't be overlooked that those starts came against Cleveland twice and Baltimore once. The Yankees have the edge on the mound with Hughes. They have won 14 of his 18 starts this season, and he is a fantastic 5-1 with an ERA of only 2.36 on the road this year. Compare that to Davis, who is 4-6 with an ERA of 4.22 at home. It is also worth noting that the Rays are only 1-5 in Davis' last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Yankees are 6-0 in Hughes' last 6 road starts vs. a team with a winning record and 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs. the American League East. The Yanks have taken 2 of 3 in Tampa this season, and they are 26-18 against the Rays over the last 3 seasons. Take the Yankees.

Craig Trapp
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Athletics vs. White Sox
Play: Over 8½
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Two teams that have been hitting the ball very well collide tonight in a hot and muggy Chicago. That usually spells a bunch of scoring. Even better two pitchers that don't have a ton of starts this season equals even more runs. Last week these teams squared off going over in two of three games and the other game had a decent total of 6 runs. Hudson goes for the CHW and he has not been very good and we expect him to only go 5 innings and give up his usuall 4 runs. On the other side we have Anderson for the A's and he is coming off another DL stint. He will not go more than 100 pitches and with this hot hitting CHW lineup might not get out of the 4th inning. Love this over as the CHW have gone over total in 6 straight and OAK has scored an average over 5 runs in last 6 games. Good luck all!

SPORTS WAGERS
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HOUSTON +1.02 over Milwaukee
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The Brewers favored in Houston with Manny Parra going up against recently acquired J.A. Happ is ludicrous to say the least. Of course the Brewers can win but one has to like the Astros chances more. Houston is coming off back-to-back wins over the Cubbies in which they outscored them 14-2. The Astros are 16-14 over its last 30 games and remain a very undervalued team almost daily. Last year Happ went 12-4 with a 2.93 and that record comes after pitching most of his games at Citizens Bank Park. Happ is not as good as those numbers suggest and that’s something to get into a little later but he’ll definitely be juiced up for his new team and his teammates will want to get him a win too. Also note that Houston is a .500 team vs lefties. Manny Parra appears to be running on fumes right now. This is a guy that’s been absolutely smoked in four of his last five starts. He’s coming off a decent game against the Nats but prior to that he allowed 25 ER over 21 IP. In 22 July innings, Parra has an ERA of 8.59 and a BAA of .364. Furthermore, the Astros have seen him plenty and in fact, current Astro hitters have 96 AB’s against Parra and they have a combined 34 hits for a BA of .364. Play: Houston +1.02 (Risking 2 units).

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NY Yankees/TAMPA BAY over 9
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Phil Hughes is 12-3 with a 4.04 ERA and while those numbers look decent on paper but the fact is, Hughes is a tired pitcher. This is a guy that’s never pitched more than 86 frames in a season and now he’s up to 111 innings. He’s in unchartered territory and the toll it’s taking is apparent. Throw out one game in Seattle in July and in his other four starts, Hughes has allowed 20 ER in 24 innings. Since May 28, Hughes has seen his ERA balloon from 2.70 to the current 4.04. Over his last 11 games he’s also faced Seattle twice, Baltimore twice, Houston, the Mets twice, Toronto, KC, the Angels and Cleveland. The only teams over .500 in that group are the Jays and Mets and they got to Hughes for 12 ER in a combined 18 IP. Hughes has had perhaps the easiest schedule in the majors over the past three months and his numbers are no better than guys like Kyle Davies, Jeremy Guthrie or Doug Fister. It goes even further than that. Hughes has a very low GB rate of 34% and a high strand rate of 74%. Hughes has relied on control most of the year to get him through, however, his K’s are way down because of fatigue (5 K’s in his last 10 IP) and frankly, a fatigued Hughes is simply not that good. Wade Davis isn’t much better despite his numbers. Davis has an unsustainable LOB% of 79.7% and that’s a number that should not be ignored. Is groundball rate is below the league average and this guy has been one of the luckiest pitchers in the game this season. Based on the numbers, both these teams should have plenty of runners and plenty of scoring opportunities. Both know how to cash them in and it wouldn’t surprise to see one of these teams or maybe both score seven or more. Play: NY Yankees/TB over 9 +1.01 (Risking 2 units).

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Chicago +1.15 over COLORDO
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Very nice that the Rockies managed to squeeze out a victory last night over the Pirates to salvage one game in the series. The Rockies were a 3-1 favorite. This is a team that has lost to Joe Blanton, Sean Gallagher, Kyle Kendrick, Zach Duke and J.A. Happ among others during a stretch in which they’ve lost eight of 10. The two pitchers they beat over that stretch were Nate Robertson and Paul Maholm. Now they’ll face a quality pitcher in the ever-reliable Ryan Dempster. Dempster has a BAA of .240. He has 134 k’s in 140 innings and is always a threat to throw a strong game. Current Rockies have just 40 AB’s against Dempster and all they have to show for it is six hits for a BA of .150. The Cubbies are more dangerous against southpaws and will face one here in Jeff Francis. Francis is going good but he’s also been limited to under 100 pitches in seven straight starts and in 11 of 12 since coming off the DL. He has yet to throw over 100 pitches all year. By contrast, current Cubs hitter have 23 hits in 68 AB’s against Francis for a BA of .338. In no way do the Rocks have any advantage in this game, other than home field and it’s for that reason there’s great value on the visitor. Play: Chicago +1.15 (Risking 2 units).

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EDMONTON -1½ over B.C. Lions
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For the second consecutive week, many folks are on the Eskies to snap its losing streak and unlike last week, this week we have to agree. The Eskies were seriously instructed to take a gut-check this week and it says here they respond. They already lost to the Lions, in BC, in week one and losing twice to this pedestrian squad in five weeks is not an option. Fact is, the Eskies are much more talented than the Lions in every way, they just haven’t show it yet. Edmonton features a great RB in Arlee Whitlock and a proven QB in Ricky way while the Lions feature none of the aforementioned. Instead, they will once again be forced to turn to QB Travis Lulay for his second start. Lulay was adequate last week in Toronto but once the Argos caught on it was a different story. The Lions offense mustered a mere three points (a safety and a single) in the second half and things will not get easier this week against a team that is in a foul mood. The Lions are a one-dimensional squad and even its passing game is average. The Eskies will be so prepared and so ready to go for this one after the team lost its first four games for the first time in 45 years. Remember, just two weeks ago at home the Esks were taking it to the Als and one play changed the course of that game. This is a talented team at home playing a much-less talented team and there’s just no way the Eskies aren’t focused big time and treat this one like a playoff game, that’s how important it is. Play: Edmonton –1½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).