Sam Martin
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Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds
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Good spot to back the Reds tonight, as they come in off back-to-back blowout wins over the Brewers and start a red-hot Johnny Cueto, who has allowed just three combined runs in his last three starts covering 21 innings. The Reds scored 22 runs in their last two wins, and face an Atlanta team that was scored just six runs combined in their last three contests. We'll back the Reds momentum into a win here! 5* Play on Cincinnati.
Matt Fargo
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New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
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Tampa Bay is playing some great baseball once again as it has won six straight games following a four-game sweep of the Tigers to start the week. The Rays continue to keep pace in the American League East as they trail the Yankees by only two games which makes this series a big one for both sides. The Rays are now 10-1 in their last 11 home games. New York won three of four on Cleveland as the bats came alive over the final two games after scoring just two runs in the first two games of the set. That moved the Yankees 11 games over .500 on the road but this is the first true road test in nearly a month. Philip Hughes is 12-3 on the season which is a façade in my opinion and has been most of the season. He started the season by barely making the rotation but began very strong by allowing two runs or fewer in his first six starts while also tossing seven quality outings in his first 10 starts. It has been a struggle since as he has a 6.26 ERA over his last seven starts. The reason he is 12-3 is that he has the best run support in baseball as he is getting 7.3 rpg. Wade Davis gets the call for the Rays and while it has been a tough season for him, he has been pitching much better of late. He has allowed three runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts and has posted a 3.83 ERA over that span. Most importantly, the Rays have won his last four start. Tampa Bay is 14-1 at home over the last three seasons when hosting a team with a winning percentage of .620 or better. 3* Tampa Bay Rays
Rocketman
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston
Play: Houston Astros
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Milwaukee is 2-8 this year after allowing 10 runs or more. Houston has won 3 of their last 4 games overall. Milwaukee bullpen has a 5.10 ERA overall this year. Manny Parra is 3-7 with a 5.33 ERA overall this year, 2-4 with a 6.00 ERA in all starts, 1-2 with a 6.84 ERA on the road and 0-2 with an 8.82 ERA his last 3 starts. JA Happ is 1-0 with a 1.76 ERA overall this year, 2.61 ERA at home this season and 1-0 with a 1.76 ERA his last 3 starts. Parra has a 5.18 ERA overall vs Houston since 1997 while Happ is 1-0 with a 3.17 ERA overall vs Milwaukee since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Houston tonight!
Rob Vinciletti
Texas Rangers vs. LA Angels
Play: LA Angels
Texas fits a negative system which has cashed 14 of 19 times playing against road teams from -110 to +110 off a home favored win, vs an opponent off a home loss. The Rangers are scoring just under 3 runs per game over the past week and they have losr 2 of 3 times here this season. LA has E. Santana on the mound as they try to cut in to the Rangers division lead. Santana has allowed just 2 runs over his last 2 outings vs Texas. Santana should improve on his 1.57 era over his last 3 starts and lead the Angles to a game one win.
Scott Rickenbach
Brewers @ Astros
PICK: Under 8.5
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The Astros are facing Manny Parra, a Brewers southpaw. Note that Houston is 14-8 to the under this season when facing a left-handed starter. Additionally, the Astros are 10-5 to the under this season when they are at home and the total is 8 or 8.5 runs. Over the last three seasons, that record with those parameters is a fantastic 40-24 to the under! Additionally, Houston was off yesterday and they are 25-15 to the under the last three seasons when they are playing a game after an off day. In divisional match-ups over the last three seasons, the Astros are 115-75 to the under. As for the Brewers, they have definitely been more of an “over team” this season but they are 8-5 to the under in their Friday games this season. Additionally, the Brewers allowed 10 runs to the Reds in their loss on Wednesday (then Milwaukee was off Thursday). Note that the Brewers are 108-72 to the under since 1996 when they are off of a game where they allowed 10 runs or more! Also, when playing with a day off, the Brewers are on a long-term 131-95 run to the under.
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While Parra has some ugly numbers this season keep in mind, Houston is hitting .240 this season and that ranks dead last in the National League. Also, Milwaukee is a much better hitting team at home compared to on the road. The Brewers are hitting just .249 away from home this season and that ranks them 27th out of all 30 MLB teams! Milwaukee also is likely to struggle with J.A. Happ of the Astros. The southpaw was just acquired from the Phillies and he’s 14-5 in his career with a 3.11 ERA and a .245 BAA. We always liked Happ with the Phillies and he threw 5 shutout innings in his only other career start at Minute Maid Park. Look for him to shutdown the overaggressive Brewers as their road struggles at the plate continue!
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 -139
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We'll take the Cards on the run line at home considering how dominant Carpenter has been against Pittsburgh. He is 11-1 (13-1 on the ML) in 14 career starts against the Bucs with an ERA of 2.29. 9 of those 13 wins have come by at least 2 runs. Pittsburgh starter Karstens has lost his last 3 starts, with the last 2 losses coming by 2 or more runs. Plus, Pittsburgh is 2-14 when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season, losing to these opponents by an average score of 3.1 to 6.9. Take the Cards at home on the run line with their ace on the hill.
Steve Janus
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Mariners vs. Twins
Pick: Twins -1.5
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The Twins are red hot and playing some of their best baseball of the season right now, as they have won five straight. Just how good have the Twins been? They have 86 hits in their last five games! The Twins will face Doug Fister of the Mariners tonight, and he has a 5.74 ERA against the Tiwns, and in his one start against the Twins earlier this season he game up five runs in five innings.The Twins have Scott Baker on the mound, who has pitched his best at home this season, as he has a 3.90 ERA in those starts. Don't worry about the 1.5 runs in this one, the Twins have each of their past seven wins by more than 1.5 runs.
Doug Upstone
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Cleveland Indians vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
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Toronto easily won their last two games over Baltimore, permitting just two runs total. Cleveland on the other hand was blasted 8-0 and 11-4 by the New York Yankees, having to go deep into the pen. This leads to Playing On all favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 like the Blue Jays with a rested bullpen, having thrown two or less innings in each of the last two contests, against opponent after a game where the bullpen threw six or more innings. This top choice system is 50-7, 87.7 percent.
JR O'Donnell
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MIN / SEA Over 8.5
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The Twins are hot and they are hitting the ball well right, winners of 5 in row! They are poundimg the ball @ a close to a .390 BA pace the last 7 games, The Twins will feast on a Seattle's M's hurler Fister who is 0-5 with a 5.17 ERA. The M's were outscored 32-11 and they went O-fer in a 4 game series in Chicago. We also note that Fister is flat out terrible on the road. The M's Fister has a super high ERA 5.74 and his BAA is close to .320.The Twins are hot batting an AL-best .286 vs righties. These teams like to score against each other as both have had their last 4 games go over the total. The Eastern Assassin will move all in on the OVER 8.5
Tony George
Kansas City -135
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A game I will be at this evening, barring the weather cooperates! KC is on a monster slide and lost the opener in this series last night. That being said, they are DUE HUGE and they are playing a team who has only won 15 out of their last 67 road games, and it would be a rare feat for the Os to win back to back.
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Kansas City is in a slump of almost epic proportions after Minnesita humiliated them previously in the week, and while we all look at stats they clearly are damn near even, KC wants off the snide badly and this is a "gut feel" game for me more than anything. From a line perspective, when a team is 2-8 and in very bad form, and their bullpen has an ERA of over 7 in their last 3 games, and they cant tie their own shoelaces right now, and the oddsmakers post them at -135, they are begging you to take the O's tonight. I am on KC to pull a tight one out at home.
Teddy Covers
Yankees @ Rays
PICK: Over 9
he Yankees are the highest scoring team in baseball in 2010, just like they were last year. New York’s fearsome lineup is on fire right now. They scored 33 runs in a four game set against the Royals last weekend after pounding out 31 runs in their first five games following the All Star break. Over the last two days, they pounded out 19 runs in a pair of wins at Cleveland.
This is bad news for Rays starter Wade Davis, who has yet to throw a quality start in three tries against the Bronx Bombers. The Yanks have seen the rookie’s stuff twice already this season; eliminating the element of unfamiliarity against a young starter. Davis has been feasting on weak hitting lineups of late, shutting down the Indians twice and the Orioles in his last three starts; giving us solid value to bet against him here.
But Phil Hughes is a ‘bet-against’ starter tonight as well. After a dominant start against the aforementioned Orioles back on June 2nd, Hughes had a 2.54 ERA. In eight starts since that dominant effort, Hughes ERA has risen to 4.04, with an ERA over 5.00 in each of the last two months. Handed a lead by the Yankees offense against lowly Kansas City in his last outing, Hughes couldn’t stay out of trouble, knocked out of the box after recording only a single out in the sixth. And the Rays have shown a remarkable propensity for late inning rallies, quite capable of sending this game Over the total late if it doesn’t go Over early. 2* Take the Over.
Ben Burns
Baltimore Orioles @ Kansas City Royals
PICK: Kansas City Royals
I had the Mets and the Royals yesterday. The Mets won easily (4-0) but the Royals lost a tough one, falling 6-5 in the 11th inning. I feel that they've got a strong shot at bouncing back with a victory here though.
Even with yesterday's result, the Royals' home record (20-29) is far better than Baltimore's 14-37 mark on the road.
Sean O'Sullivan gets the call for KC. The Royals picked him up from the Angels on July 22. He lost his first start as a Royal. However, that was at Yankee Stadium. So, he wasn't exactly expected to win, particularly as he was facing them for the second time in less than a week. Today's opponent isn't nearly so intimidating.
Note that Baltimore averages only 3.5 runs per game on the road, hitting a mere .249.
O'Sullivan figures to get some run support here. Baltimore's Jake Arrieta didn't make it past the fourth inning in his last start and has now given up five runs in back to back outings.
Note that the Royals average 4.8 runs per game at home, hitting a healthy .288 here. They've been a better team than the Orioles on the season and I expect them to show it here. Consider KC.
Larry Ness
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays
PICK: New York Yankees
The Yankees (65-36) own MLB's best record and the Rays (63-38) own its second-best one. These two teams open a three-game series tonight in Tampa with all three games sold out (not typical in Tampa this season). The Rays have won six staright coming in and the Yanks are 9-4 since the break, including winning two of three vs the Rays in New York. Hughes earned his stripes last year with the Yankees, going 8-3 with a 3.03 ERA in 51 appearances (seven starst). He's been HUGE for teh yanks in 2010, going 12-3 witha 4.04 ERA (team is 14-4 in his 18 starts). What's notable is that while the Yanks are 9-2 in his home starts and 5-2 in his road starts, Hughes' home ERA is 5.21, compared to 2.36 on the road. Wade Davis is Tampa's fifth-starter and he enters on a three-game winning streak (2.11 ERA) but he's a more modest 8-9 with a 4.32 ERA on the season in 19 starts (team is just 8-9). Big crowd tonight in Tampa but it goes home unhappy. Take the Yanks.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Colorado Rockies -124
We'll play by the numbers with a rock solid system play tonight. Home teams, Colorado in this case, which have lost 12 or more of their last 15 games, if they have won between 51 and 54 percent of their games on the season, are an impressive 33-9 since 1997, including a perfect 6-0 over the last 3 seasons. Teams falling into this situation are winning by an average score of 6.2 to 3.8. Take the Rockies at home.