DAVE COKIN
RAYS VS. RED SOX
PLAY: RAYS +110
Break up the Red Sox! The downtrodden Bosox had a great game for a change on Thursday night as they blew up Chris Sale and ended the lengthy White Sox winning streak. The bad news for the Red Sox is that they’ve had a terrible time putting any extended periods of good play together, and I expect that unfortunate trend to be maintained this evening.
There’s not a great deal to choose in the pitching matchup. I think Eduardo Rodriguez is going to have a very solid big league career and I don’t see much doubt he’s more talented than Erasmo Ramirez. But we’re talking present and not future as far as this game is concerned. Along those lines, the Rays righty has roughly the same overall 2015 numbers as Rodriguez and Ramirez has the better current form chart.
It’s not like the Rays are on a roll, but the team data clearly favors the Tampa Bay side tonight. The Red Sox have been mostly awful and winning more than one in a row has been very difficult. The Rays have been enjoying quite a bit of success when lining up against lefty starters, capturing 12 of their last 14 in that scenario. As for Ramirez, he’s been a road warrior, with the Rays winning each of his last six away starts.
If you’ve been watching the Red Sox, they’re showing all the telltale signs of a veteran team that knows it’s out of contention. If they can stay in the game early, no problem. But when Boston falls behind early, it seems as the focus wanes rapidly, and that’s been leading to some lopsided losses. In other words, be forewarned any time you’re apt to bet the Red Sox as the lack of motivation is showing up on too many nights.
With the pitching being a coin flip, I’m paying attention to the team info and that points me to the Tampa Bay side. Getting any plus money with the Rays makes them a definite consideration tonight.
Jack Jones
Minnesota Twins -104
This is an excellent price to get the Minnesota Twins at home Friday. The Twins lead the race for the second wild card and have plenty to play for, while the Mariners are eight games back and have little-to-no chance. Seattle is certainly feeling down right now having lost four in a row coming in.
Another reason the Twins should be bigger favorites is because of their edge on the mound. Tom Milone has been solid all season, going 5-2 with a 3.58 ERA and 1.234 WHIP in 13 starts. Milone sports a 3.48 ERA and 1.251 WHIP in nine career starts against Seattle as well.
Taijuan Walker has no business getting this much respect from oddsmakers with the way he has pitched this year, especially of late. Walker is 7-7 with a 5.03 ERA and 1.305 WHIP in 20 starts, 5-4 with a 5.84 ERA and 1.596 WHIP in 11 road starts, and 0-1 with an 8.22 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in his last three outings.
Milone is 14-2 (+13.3 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season in his career. The Twins are 21-7 in their last 28 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Minnesota is 5-0 in its last five games as a home favorite.
Dave Price
Toronto Blue Jays +110
The Toronto Blue Jays are in a great frame of mind right now. They just traded for two of the best players in baseball in Troy Tulowitzki and David Price. They are clearly 'all-in' for the 2015 season. They are coming off back-to-back blowout wins over the Phillies and Royals as they have outscored them 13-4 in the process. They should not be home underdogs to the Royals today despite the perceived advantage KC has on the mound. Johnny Cueto was a great get for the Royals, but he has to face the best offense in baseball in his first start with his new team. Welcome, Johnny. Drew Hutchison has been awful on the road for the Blue Jays, but it has been a different story inside Rogers Centre. Hutchison has been untouchable at home, going 7-1 with a 2.21 ERA and 1.052 WHIP in nine starts this year. He has only allowed 3 home runs all season inside this hitter-friendly park. In his only lifetime start in Toronto, Cueto allowed 5 earned runs in 6 innings. The Royals are 0-6 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Blue Jays are 10-2 in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Blue Jays are 5-0 in Hutchison's last 5 home starts.
Rob Vinciletti
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates -120
The Pirates are 31-16 vs losing teams and will look to rebound from a 15-5 loss last night. They are averaging 5.5 runs per game the past week and road favorites off a road favored loss by 5 or more runs that scored 5 or more runs with 1 errors are 10-0 vs an opponent like the Reds that are off a home win and scored 10 or more runs. J.Locke pitching for the Pirates has allowed a mere 2 earned runs in 19 innings here. Lorenzen for the Reds has an elevated 9.48 era the last 3 starts. The Reds are 0-3 at home off a home win by 5+ runs. Look for the Pirates to have the Reds walking the plank.
Big Al
Angels vs. Dodgers
Pick: Under
Clayton Kershaw might have gotten the 2015 season off to a slow start, and he also might have just barely made it onto the NL All-Star roster after some pulled out, but lately the defending two-time Cy Young winner has been about as unhittable as a starting pitcher can be. With his teammate, Zack Greinke having finally given up a run, it is now Kershaw who has a scoreless streak going, as it's been 29 innings (over three plus games) since there's been a run allowed by the Dodger southpaw ace. But he's needed to be that good too, because the Dodgers offense hasn't really shown up for him, plating just 17 runs in his last six starts (less than three runs per start). Fellow Los Angeles southpaw Hector Santiago continues to impress for the Angels, with a 7-4 record and a 2.63 ERA in 20 appearances (19 starts) so we could looking at a big-time pitching duel tonight. The under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
Jim Feist
New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox
Pick: Chicago White Sox
The Yankees have been on the road all week and head to Chicago. Don't be fooled by C.C. Sabathia (4-8) winning 3 in a row -- he just allowed 5 runs in 5 innings his last start. Sabathia's ERA continues to climb, and it's not showing many signs of plateauing. After an encouraging outing against the Mariners, Sabathia returned to his recently ineffective form in Minnesota. He's allowed at least four earned runs in three of his last five starts, and he hasn't lasted more than six innings since June. He is 2-5 on the road with a 4.56 ERA. Chicago is on a tear aft. er a sweep at Boston, part of a 7-0 run. Chris Rodon (4-3) threw 6.2 scoreless innings, scattering five hits while striking out nine batters in a 2-1 victory over the Indians on Sunday. Rodon rebounded from his dismal performance against the Cardinals, giving up just one extra-base hit Sunday. After escaping early trouble in the third inning, the 22-year-old didn't allow another runner in scoring position until the seventh inning, when he was removed after throwing 111 pitches. Chicago is 4-2 his last six starts and the Yankees are 2-8 in the last 10 meetings in Chicago.
Bruce Marshall
Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins
Pick: Minnesota Twins
Minnesota's Tommy Milone has been roughed up in his last two starts but previously had not allowed more than two runs in seven straight starts since being recalled June 4 at Boston. Rough outings lately for Seattle starter Taijuan Walker, with an 8.02 ERA in his last four outings. Prefer Milone in a bounce-back role.
Mr Vegas
Cleveland at Oakland
Play: Cleveland
Cleveland has a winning road record and the Indians are 5-2 in their last 7 road games. The Indians are 7-3 away vs. a right-handed starter and face Kendall Graveman (4.13 ERA), who was chased from Sunday's start against the Giants after just 1.1 innings, as he allowed four runs on seven hits and two walks. He gave up a three-run homer in the first inning and couldn't settle down in the second. Graveman has now allowed 14 runs combined in his last three outings following a string of seven straight quality starts heading into the All-Star break. His ERA has risen a full run to 4.13 after the recent slide. Oakland has a losing home record and the Athletics are 5-12 in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Danny Salazar (8-6) goes for Cleveland allowing 2, 1, 3 and 0 runs in four of his last five starts. He now has three straight quality starts with a sparkling 25-7 strikeout to walk ratio. The Athletics are 8-21 vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 and the Indians are 10-3 in Salazar's last 13 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Wunderdog
Kansas City @ Toronto
Pick: Toronto +100
The Kansas City Royals added a significant piece prior to the pending trade deadline, and they will showcase that move tonight as Johnny Cueto makes his debut vs. the Toronto Blue Jays. Cueto was masterful in his last outing, but the two outings prior to that, he did not make it past the fifth inning. The Blue Jays have the best offense in baseball, and he will be challenged tonight. Toronto added even more offense by trading for Troy Tulowitzki, who homered in his first game as a Jay. The Royals have to be concerned of their play on the road recently vs. winning teams where they are 0-6 in their last six. The Jays, meanwhile, have dominated teams with a winning road record at home where they are 10-2 in their last 12.
Sleepyj
SF Giants -1.5 +100
Nick Martinez has been a disaster coming down the stretch here...His last 4 games have been rather bad..He has allowed a total of 22 runs in just 4 games..Those 22 runs came on just 21 innings of work..Sohis avg right now is giving up 1 run per inning..That's very bad..Not to mention he has allowed a total of 7 HR's in that stretch as well..i guess you can add in the 10 walks if you would like..In other words, he is getting roughed up pretty bad right now..Now he faces a Giants lineup who can't afford to slip away..Giants have been hitting the ball rather well and should have a full lineup on the field tonight...The second half of the season you have to take notice to what Madison Bumgarner does..This is go time for this guy..Now he is a LHP and Texas does very well against the LHP..It's just tough going against a guy like Bumgarner whio looks to be on his game right now..He has won 3 games in a row and this Texas lineup has not seen hom all year..Bumgarner has allowed only 4ER in 17 innings in his last 3 games..He also has 17 strikeouts as well..So unlike Martinez, Bumgarner is striking out 1 batter per innings Vs. giving up 1 run per inning...I also like the fact that the Giants will pick up an extra bat here tonight...Bumgarner can hit, but it's always nice to add a quality DH to a team like the Giants..I can't go against Bumgarner and the Giants here tonight..Martinez should be in for a long night..Maybe an early night rather..Giants roll.
Andre Rameriz
Edmonton -9.5
Edmonton has one of the best defense in the league. The defense is well balanced with hard hitting linebackers and secondary's. The Rough Riders are coming into this game 0-5. The Rough Riders do have a excellent run game, but are dealing with quarterback issues. 3rd string QB looked sloppy in his opening game, relying on the running backs to do their job. The Rough Riders did face the Eskimos in preseason , and the game was close. The difference here is the injuries. The Rough Riders will struggle here.
Jeff Horn -280
Jeff Horn is a very good technical fighter from Australia. Jeff likes to come in close, setting up with his left, and pounding opponents with his hard right. Viktor got smashed against Sugar Jackson, who fought a simular style of fight. Viktor is not a close range fighter, and is not aggressive. Jeff will move to the inside, and will dismantle his opponent. Jeff has excellent defense on the inside, and his hard to hit. He likes to bob and weave on the inside, and just pound on mistakes. Lay the money on Jeff Horn for today's money fight!
SPORTS WAGERS
Atlanta-104 over PHILADELPHIA
The Braves loss to the Phillies yesterday was a frustrating one but it is not going to deter us from coming right back on them here against David Buchanan. Buchanan had thrown 25 brutal innings this year over five starts, which led to his demotion back to Lehigh Valley. He has allowed 14 hits in 11.1 innings in his two starts this month with the last one coming 10 days ago against the Rays. Overall, Buchanan has been tagged for 46 hits and 28 runs in 36 innings. His oppBA is .319. To make matters worse, he can’t throw strikes. Buchanan has a BB/K split of 18/19 to go along with a WHIP of 1.78 and an ERA of 7.00. In his six starts at Triple-AAA Lehigh Valley between his two stints in the majors this year, Buchanan allowed 39 hits in 31 innings while whiffing a mere 17 batters. There’s a reason he went 231st in the 2010 draft. David Buchanan is as bad a starter as you’ll ever see at this level because nothing good in his profile sticks out. He doesn’t strike out guys, he doesn’t throw hard, he doesn’t fool hitter’s with off-speed stuff, he doesn’t induce groundballs at a high level and he doesn’t keep guys off the bases.
Williams Perez was 4-0 with a 2.88 ERA before he went on the DL with a bruised foot. He made eight starts and worked out of the pen twice before the injury in late June. Overall, Perez has thrown 50 innings while allowing just 45 hits and striking out 38. He has an outstanding 52%/20%/28% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile. Unlike Buchanan, Perez posted outstanding numbers at Triple-A in his first few starts and rehab assignment combined with just eight runs allowed in 38 frames (1.16 ERA) to go along with a BB/K split of 10/36. These two starters have taken similar paths this year, as they were both up and down for similar periods. The difference is Perez was injured while Buchanan was demoted. Perez has earned his spot in the rotation while the pitching desperate Phillies are looking for anyone that can eat innings. Perez’s win expectation is much higher than Buchanan’s so in a virtual pick-em game we must play the value.
CHICAGO +111 over N.Y. Yankees
Carlos Rodon is a future ace but his 4.09 ERA and 1.58 WHIP make him an extremely undervalued target. Rodon has some of the filthiest stuff in the league and it sure doesn’t hurt that he gets to watch and work with Chris Sale every day. Rodon has 83 K’s in 77 frames. He brings 94 mph heat with great life. His 13% swing and miss rate over his last eight starts is one of the best in the majors. Rodon has one hurdle to overcome and that’s his percentage of balls thrown. He has walked 44 batters and that’s the only reason for his high WHIP. When he doesn’t walk hitters he’s as difficult to score on as any pitcher in the game, as his 1.64 ERA in innings in which he doesn’t walk anyone will attest to. Rodon’s ceiling is massive.
Nathan Eovaldi sports an impressive 10-2 record in his first season in the Bronx, which might lead some to suspect he's become more than just the high-velocity hurler we've known for years. True or false? False. We’re still waiting for Eovaldi to figure it out. His low strikeout rate is a constant reminder that velocity (avg 96.1 mph) doesn't always equal strikeouts. Eovaldi’s swing and miss rate says he's producing whiffs at a league-average level. He's been particularly ineffective versus lefties, who own an .875 OPS against him. Despite an off-putting 4+ ERA and a horrendous 1.48 WHIP, Eovaldi has managed to skirt scrutiny because of the run support he's received (more than seven runs per game). This has padded his win total even though he's been generally ineffective in most of his starts (17%/33% dominant start/disaster start split). Cursed with a screaming fastball that lacks movement, players will continue to treat Eovaldi like a batting cage machine until he can provide more effective secondary offerings.
San Diego +105 over MIAMI
The Padres are the NL’s version of the White Sox. Both spent money in the off-season and many had picked both of them to be legit playoff contenders before the season started. Both have had very decent pitching all-season but their hitting has been weak. The White Sox bats woke up over the past couple of weeks and now we may be seeing the Padres bats come to life as well. San Diego has some thunder in their lineup and they just went into New York (Mets) and scored 15 runs over the last two games. The Padres figure to get lots more scoring opportunities against David Phelps here. Phelps has pretty much been the same guy for three years and counting with decent command, a low swing and miss rate (5%) and below-league-average skills. His versatility is much more valuable to his MLB team than to you. As the chalk, pitching for the Marlins, Phelps is instant fade material.
Ian Kennedy is 6-9 with a 4.58 ERA over 18 starts. Those numbers look even worse when you consider that he pitches half his games at Petco Park. We say, “Don’t give up on this guy”. Kennedy's skills are so much better than his surface stats. He continues to generate plenty of swings and misses, and is striking out a batter per inning for the second consecutive season. Kennedy has been the victim of some very bad luck, as his hit rate, strand rate, and especially his home run per fly ball rate are currently on the wrong side of league average. The hit rate is in line with his usual level, but the home runs are sure to slow down. Kennedy had just one disaster in 2014, but has already had five in 18 starts this year. Over his last five starts, Kennedy has a BB/K split of 6/24 over 27 frames to go along with an ERA of 3.29. Kennedy is having a rotten year on the stat sheet but there doesn't appear to be anything wrong with his skills. He's striking out plenty of batters and his xERA (3.52) isn't far off last year's mark. His strand rate is very low and his home run per fly ball rate is the highest in the majors among starting pitchers. Those marks should normalize going forward, so Kennedy should post some decent ratios from this point on, along with his typically solid strikeout totals.
Arizona +130 over HOUSTON
Great spot for the D-Backs after the Astros just completed an emotionally charged, three-game sweep over the Angels. Houston started that series a game behind L.A. for first place in the AL West but they’re now two games up. The D-backs sneak into town under much less hype and offer up some great value in this first game. Arizona is coming off a three-game sweep in Seattle in which they scored 20 runs against three very decent starters. The D-Backs now get a break in facing Scott Feldman in a hitter’s park. After missing close to two months with a meniscus tear, Feldman was recently activated and inserted back into the rotation. Feldman has a lousy 41 K’s in 73 innings. His 26% line-drive rate is a bottom five mark in MLB. His swing and miss rate in his last start was 3%. Since returning from injury, Feldman has a 3.38 ERA but don’t let that fool you because his xERA is 4.77. This is the second best starter by a wide margin laying an inflated price.
Rubby De La Rosa remains a volatile young starter that the market continues to overlook. That is going to provide us with outstanding profit potential until the market catches up since De La Rosa is showing signs of being on the verge of breaking out. He has increased his swing and miss rate from 8.0% in 2014 to 11.7% so far in the first half of 2015 to 13% since the All-Star break. That 1 year jump is the second-highest in MLB. In addition, his first pitch strike % has jumped from 52% to 61% (biggest increase in MLB). And his ball% has declined from 38% to 35%. Blame a crazy 21% hr/f for his 4.52 ERA. Once he figures out lefties a bit more and gets some hr/f normalization, De La Rosa will emerge as one of the top starters in the NL. By that time, the market will have discovered just how good he is. We’re telling you now how good he is and because this wager is based solely on De La Rosa’s superiority over Feldman, we’ll play if in the first five innings only.
Matt Fargo
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Tampa Bay Rays +110
We won with Boston last night as it tagged Chris Sale for seven runs on 12 hits in just five innings which snapped a three-game skid and avoided the four-game sweep to the White Sox. The Red Sox are still two games under .500 at home and they send Eduardo Rodriguez to the hill who has been pretty inconsistent this season. He is coming off a quality outing against Detroit last time out but he still brings in a 5.35 ERA at home. Additionally, the Red Sox are 1-4 in his last five starts following a quality outing in his last start. The Rays have won 12 of their last 14 games against left-handed starters and turn the ball over to Erasmus Ramirez. He looks to bounce back from a poor outing against Baltimore which came after nine straight starts where he allowed two runs or less, eight of which he allowed just one run or no runs. The Rays have won his last six road starts and I expect that perfect run to continue here.
Joe Gavazzi
Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets
Play: New York Mets -118
History clearly favors Washington in this matchup. The Nationals are 18-3 at this site of late. In 9 starts from this mound, tonight’s Washington starter, Gonzalez, is 6-1 with a 1.66 ERA. But, the hunter vs. the hunted concept comes to the fore. It favors the Mets, who are just 3 games behind Washington for the division lead. In their favor is the Mets’ 35-18 home record, the strong work from this mound from Harvey and the debacle that resulted in last night’s 8-7 loss to San Diego in a driving rainstorm. Harvey has a history to match Gonzalez with a 1.34 ERA in 7 starts against Washington. In addition, his record from this mound is beyond reproach. The Mets’ have won 8/10 Harvey home starts, where he has a PLAY ON 1.04 home WHIP (contrast to Gonzalez, who has a PLAY AGAINST 1.59 road WHIP). In his most recent 4 starts at home, Harvey is 3-0 with a 1.33 ERA.