Jesse Schule
Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Kansas City Royals -107
The Blue Jays won Game 1 of this series last night, and Toronto fans are already making plans for a World Series victory parade after the Jays acquired a former batting champ and a Cy Young winner at the deadline. The Royals are still the team to beat in the American League though, and with Johnny Cueto making his debut tonight, I like the Royal to even the series. Cueto (7-6, 2.62 ERA) tossed eight scoreless innings on the road at Colorado in his last start for the Reds. He's 3-1 with a 1.59 ERA in five starts in the month of July. The 29 yer old has only faced the Jays once over the last three seasons, and he allowed one earned run while striking out eight over eight innings in win. The Jays hand the ball to Drew Hutchison, who has been the beneficiary of incredible run support this season. Hutchison (9-2, 5.42 ERA) was torched for six runs on seven hits over just four innings in a no decision at Seattle his last time out. He's 1-1 with a 7.32 ERA in four starts in July. The Royals are still a better defensive team than Toronto, with a better bullpen and no shortage of clutch hitters.
Doug Upstone
Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati
Play: Over 9
Play OVER on teams like PITTSBURGH when the total is 9 to 9.5, revenging a loss where the opponent scored 10 or more runs, a good team (54% to 62%) playing a marginal losing team (46% to 49%). Teams like the Pirates come more determined while their for has carry-over confidence from the last game leading to 46-17 record on OVER's the last 18 seasons.
Mike Lundin
Rockies vs. Cardinals
Play: Over 7½
The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Colorado Rockies 9-8 in the opener of a four-game set at Busch Stadium last night. I expect another high-scoring encounter tonight when the visitors send Kyle Kendrick to the mound. Kendrick has been lit up in back-to-back starts allowing a total of 12 runs, 11 earned, on 17 hits in just 9 1/3 innings. He has a 6.33 ERA over 20 starts for the year and a 3.53 ERA in 12 career appearances versus St. Louis who will turn to Michael Wacha. The 24 year old started the season in a dominant fashion but has compiled a 5.25 ERA in four starts this month. He allowed four runs on nine hits in 6 2/3 innings of a 4-3 loss to the Rockies on June 9.
Notes
The over is 4-1 in Colorado's last five road games and 4-0 in its last four road games vs. a right-handed starter.
The over is 5-2-1 in Wacha's last eight starts with four days of rest.
The over is 5-2 in umpire Ed Hickoxs last seven games behind home plate vs. Colorado.
Brandon Lee
Kansas City vs. Toronto
Play: Under 8
I believe 8 is way too big of a number given the starting pitching matchup for this one. The Royals will be debuting their new ace Johnny Cueto, who has a 2.62 ERA and 0.934 WHIP in 19 starts. The Blue Jays counter with Drew Hutchison, who would be a Cy Young candidate if he could start every game at home. Hutchison is 7-1 with a 2.21 ERA and 1.052 WHIP in 9 home starts. Not to mention these 2 teams combined for just 7 runs in the series opener with a starting pitching matchup that doesn't even come close to this one. I'm calling for another low-scoring matchup in game 2, as this has a pitcher's duel written all over it.
Jimmy Boyd
Cubs/Brewers Under 7½
I'm not expecting many runs to be scored in tonight's NL Central showdown between the Cubs and Brewers. Chicago is hitting just .213 over their last 7 games and have registered double-digit hits just once in their last 7 games. The Brewers haven't been much better at the plate. Milwaukee is averaging just 1.6 runs and hitting .193 as a team over their last 7 games.
The starting pitching matchup also figures to play a big role in a low-scoring affair. The Cubs will send out Jason Hammel, who has a 3.20 ERA and 1.024 WHIP over 19 starts Hammel has been especially effective against the Brewers, posting a 2.25 ERA and 1.096 WHIP in 8 career starts. Milwaukee's Taylor Jungmann is one of the more underrated starters in the league right now. Jungmann has a 2.14 ERA and 1.051 WHIP in 9 starts and in 8 of those 9 starts has allowed 2 runs or less.
UNDER is 22-9 in the Cubs last 31 after allowing 2 runs or less, 6-0 in Hammel's last 6 starts after giving up 2 runs or less and 8-0 in their last 8 after stranding 7 or less runners in 4 straight games. UNDER is also 26-12-3 in the Brewers last 41 games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 and 6-1 in Jungmann's last 7 starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs.
Marc Lawrence
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Tampa Bay Rays +108
Edges - Rays: Erasmo Ramirez 5-2 with 2.09 ERA last seven overall team starts, and 12 strikeouts and 1 walk last three starts. Blue Jays: Eduardo Rodriguez 5.35 home ERA as opposed to 2.93 away ERA this season. With the Red Sox just 3-12 in their last fifteen home games versus A.L. East division foes, we recommend a 1* play on Tampa Bay.
John Ryan
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Detroit Tigers +171
Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-22 mark good for 61.4% winners and has made 40.3 units/unit wagered since 2010. What is impressive and the best money making part of this system is the fact that it has averaged a +178 Dog Play. My complete neural network based simulator proves that by playing dogs that are graded to have at least a 58% probability of winning any game is by far the best opportunity to make a significant amount of profits over the course of the season. In 2014 I made dime players $44,980 and 85% of the releases were dogs. Detroit has been one of the majors' best teams against left-handed pitching, batting .274, and Jose Iglesias is hitting .375.
Kyle Hunter
Royals at Blue Jays
Play: Royals
The Kansas City Royals are a really good team. They play great defense, have a solid lineup, and have a tremendous bullpen. Johnny Cueto is the ace the Royals needed badly. While Toronto certainly has a good offense, I think Cueto pitches well in his first start for Kansas City. Hutchison is a guy that can't be trusted to command his pitches, and the Royals offense will certainly be patient and make him work. Huge pitching advantage for the Royals and they are underpriced here.
Jason Sharpe
New York Mets (-120) over Washington
This has the feel of a huge opening game of a weekend series for the home team New York Mets as the crowd should be pumped up for this game. The Mets have been chasing the favored Washington Nationals for most of this season but are within striking distance for the first time in a long time this late in the baseball season. The Mets appear to be feeding off all the excitement as they have one of the top home records in all of baseball this year. Starter Matt Harvey starts this game for the Mets, and Harvey has been a much better pitcher at home then on the road over his career as he sports a spectacular 2.25 ERA in all of his home contests.
The Washington Nationals have really struggled in the month of July offensively as their still dealing with a lot of injuries. The Nats have hit around .220 as a team for the month, which ranks them toward the very bottom of the league. Gio Gonzalez gets the ball here for Washington in this one, and he's not as good on the road as he's been so far at home this season. Gonzalez has a very ugly 5.02 E.R.A in away games this year compared to a strong 2.50 ERA when at home. That's nothing new from the left-hander as he's posted a better home ERA in each one of his last six seasons, and career wise it's nearly a full run worse in road games compared to pitching in Washington. Take the New York Mets here.
Ian Cameron
Detroit at Baltimore
Play: Over 9
My clients and I cashed an easy winner over the total between these two teams last night and I have no reservations about looking toward another high scoring affair involving two solid lineups and two very suspect pitchers on a warm and humid night in Baltimore. Buck Farmer gets the nod for Detroit tonight and he is nothing more than a fringe arm with very little upside. Farmer has been hit hard in each of his two starts this season allowing 12 runs on 17 hits in just 10.1 innings of work against the LA Angels and Cleveland while allowing 3 home runs in those starts. The Orioles have scored 29 runs in their last 6 games in very good form at the plate and should score their share of runs tonight against Farmer and the woeful Tigers bullpen behind him which almost coughed up a huge 9-2 lead last night. On the flip side, Wei-Yin Chen has actually been more good than bad this season but he has shown signs of wearing down a bit in the hot summer months as his hits allowed have skyrocketed in each of his last three starts. He’s given up 8, 10 and 6 hits and he yielded a pair of home runs in his last start against Tampa Bay. Chen doesn’t have a good track record against the Detroit Tigers allowing 5 runs in each of his last two starts against them since 2012 and lasted just 3.2 innings in his lone time facing them last season. Miguel Gonzalez was knocked out of last night’s game after 3.1 innings so the Orioles bullpen isn’t in the best of shape tonight either. Detroit remains one of the top over teams in baseball this season at 57-42 O/U and I agree with the move in this total from 8.5 to 9 but still see value.
Fantasy Sports
Play LA Dodgers -220
Clayton Kershaw has won 98 of the last 148 games when the total posted is seven runs or less and he has won 78 of the last 121 games when pitching in the 2nd half of the season. Clayton Kershaw has won 81 of the last 124 games when pitching as a favorite of -150 or higher and he has won 78 of the last 123 home games.
Cajun Sports
Houston Astros (-) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
This game features an interleague matchup with the Arizona Diamondbacks taking on the Houston Astros in Texas on Friday night. The Houston Astros qualify in one of our MLB Power Systems that tell us to play ON MLB home favorites facing a team who has won their starters last two starts. This system has a record of 767-504 SU for 60.3 percent winners and a profit of +6305 Units. We will back the home team here as the Astros get the victory on Friday night. Houston Astros
Rocketman
Arizona vs. Houston
Play: Houston -150
The Arizona Diamondbacks travel to Houston to take on the Astros on Friday night. Arizona is 49-51 overall this year while Houston comes in with a 58-45 overall record on the season. Rubby DeLaRosa is 2-4 with a 5.04 ERA on the road this year. Scott Feldman has a 2.79 ERA his last 3 starts. DeLaRosa is 0-1 with an 11.42 ERA in his two starts vs Houston in his career. Houston is 8-1 in inter-league play this year where they are scoring 7.2 runs per game. Houston is allowing only 2.7 runs per game their past 7 games overall. Arizona is 0-6 this year when playing against a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season. Houston is 16-5 this year as a home favorite of -125 to -150. We'll recommend a small play on Houston tonight!