SPORTS ADVISORS
Chicago Cubs (54-46) at Florida (52-49)
Two of the hottest teams in the National League open a three-game set at LandShark Stadium in Miami today as the Cubs send righty Rich Harden (7-6, 4.55 ERA) to the mound opposite Marlins’ right-hander Christopher Volstad (8-9, 4.44).
Chicago comes in having won seven of its last eight with an offense that has put up five runs or more in each of those eight contests. The Cubs took three of four over the Astros with Thursday’s 12-3 victory and outscored Houston 24-3 in the final two games. Chicago is on runs of 6-2 on the road, 5-2 against N.L. East teams and 5-1 on Fridays.
Florida fell 6-3 in 10 innings against the Braves on Thursday, but the Marlins have still won six of their last eight overall. They are riding additional positive streaks of 11-4 at home, 7-2 at home against right-handed starters and 4-1 in series openers, however they are just 3-12 in their last 15 as a home ‘dog and 1-5 in their last sis on Friday.
Chicago has taken four of the last five meetings with the Marlins, but the Fish have won seven of the last nine in Florida.
Harden has been nails for the Cubs lately, going 2-0 in his last three starts with a 0.95 ERA. He’s 4-1 on the road this season with a 2.03 ERA and he’s allowed a total of two earned runs in his last three roadies, covering 20 innings. He got roughed up by the Marlins back on May 1 when he gave up five runs on six hits in 3 2/3 innings, but his offense came back to win the game 8-6. With Harden on the mound, the Cubs are just 1-4 on the road against winning teams, but they are on runs of 4-0 when he’s a road chalk and 5-2 when he faces the N.L. East.
Volstad has been shaky at home for Florida, going 3-6 with a 5.24 ERA. In Los Angeles on Sunday, the Dodgers got him for four runs on eight hits in 5 1/3 innings and his offense pulled out the win, 8-6. He faced these Cubs back on April 30 and allowed two runs on three hits over seven innings of an 8-2 victory. He’s allowed just six earned runs in three starts against Chicago over the last two seasons. Florida is 4-0 when Volstad gets four days of rest, but just 1-5 when he starts on Friday, 1-4 in his last five at home and 0-4 when he opens a series.
It’s all “unders” for the Cubs when Harden pitches, including 5-2 overall, 4-0 on the road, 5-1-1 as a road favorite and 4-1 when he gets four days of rest. As a team, the Cubs have topped the total in four of five against the N.L. East and four of five on the road, but they’ve stayed under the number in 10 of 13 as a road favorite and 31 of 48 on Fridays.
With Volstad pitching, the Marlins are on “under” runs of 7-3-2 in series openers, 9-3-1 as an underdog and 11-3-1 against winning teams. As a team, Florida has topped the total in five straight on Friday, eight of 12 against the N.L. Central and 11 of 18 at home against right-handers. In this series, the over is 9-3 in the last 12 in Florida and 4-1 in the last five overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
L.A. Angels (60-40) at Minnesota (52-50)
The Twins will try to make it five in a row when they send righty Nick Blackburn (8-5, 3.82 ERA) to the hill inside the Metrodome to welcome Angels’ right-hander Ervin Santana (3-6, 7.29) in the first game of this three-game set.
The Angels finished a seven-game homestand on Wednesday by beating the Indians 9-3. They went 5-2 in those seven, including 3-1 against these Twins in a four-game set last weekend. Los Angeles is on a plethora of positive runs, including 36-16 overall, 13-3 on the road, 13-3 in series openers, 9-2 as a ‘dog, 6-0 after an off-day and 6-2 on Fridays.
Minnesota swept the White Sox this week, winning all three games by two runs or less, including Wednesday’s 3-2 victory. The Twins are just 1-4 in their last five against A.L. West teams, but they are on streaks of 65-32 at home, 58-22 as home favorites, 24-7 on Fridays and 23-8 after an off-day.
Santana has won two of his last three starts, but his ERA is a whopping 6.11 in those three. He got blasted by these Twins on Sunday, allowing six runs on six hits in 3 2/3 innings of a 10-1 loss in the series finale in Anaheim. He’s allowed 11 runs in his last 9 2/3 innings and he’s yielded four runs or more in seven of his last 10 outings. Still, with Santana on the hill, the Angels are on runs of 10-2 in series openers, 4-1 when he’s a ‘dog, 5-2 on the road and 7-3 against the A.L. Central.
Blackburn is a perfect 5-0 at home with a 2.67 ERA, but he is just 1-1 with a 9.77 ERA in his last three outings overall. In Anaheim on Saturday, he allowed six runs on six hits in 3 2/3 innings of an 11-5 Twins’ loss. In two outings this season against Los Angeles, he’s given up 10 runs in 10 innings.
With Blackburn throwing, the Twins are 0-5 against the A.L. West and just 5-11 when he faces a team with a winning record, but they are on positive runs of 12-1 when he’s a home favorite, 17-4 when he’s at home and 5-1 when he pitches on Friday.
Los Angeles is on several “under” streaks with Santana on the hill, including 9-2 on the road, 5-1-1 on Fridays, 13-6-1 when he gets four days of rest, 8-3 in series openers and 8-3-2 against A.L. Central teams. Conversely, as a squad, the Angels are on a host of “over” runs that include 36-15-3 overall, 11-0 against the A.L. Central, 21-5-2 following a win and 23-6-1 against right-handed starters.
With Blackburn pitching, the Twins have stayed under the total in eight of his last 11, seven of 11 when he’s a home favorite and four of five at home. However, as a team, Minnesota is on “over” runs of 39-19-2 on Fridays, 5-1 against right-handers, 4-1 after an off-day, 5-2 in series openers and 5-0 against the A.L. West. Finally, the over was a perfect 4-0 when these two met in Anaheim last weekend.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
DUNKEL
Detroit at Cleveland
The Indians look to take advantage of a Detroit team that is just 1-7 in its last 8 road games. Cleveland is the pick (+140) according to Dunkel, which has the Indians favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+140).
Game 951-952: Washington at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Lannan) 13.692; Pittsburgh (Ohlendorf) 14.783
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+125); Over
Game 953-954: Colorado at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Cook) 15.417; Cincinnati (Lehr) 12.576
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 3; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-145); Under
Game 955-956: Chicago Cubs at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Harden) 16.302; Florida (Volstad) 16.024
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-115); Under
Game 957-958: Arizona at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Davis) 15.312; NY Mets (Hernandez) 17.153
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-115); Over
Game 959-960: LA Dodgers at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Schmidt) 14.807; Atlanta (Hanson) 15.655
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-180); 9
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-180); Under
Game 961-962: Houston at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Moehler) 15.274; St. Louis (Boggs) 14.886
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-155); 9
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+145); Under
Game 963-964: Milwaukee at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Looper) 13.247; San Diego (Gaudin) 15.129
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+110); Over
Game 965-966: Philadelphia at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Blanton) 16.594; San Francisco (Sadowski) 15.578
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-165); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-165); Under
Game 967-968: Boston at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Smoltz) 15.545; Baltimore (Guthrie) 15.202
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-125); 10
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-125); Under
Game 969-970: Detroit at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Jackson) 15.300; Cleveland (Carmona) 15.819
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+140); Over
Game 971-972: Kansas City at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Ponson) 14.076; Tampa Bay (Price) 15.290
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-200); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-200); Under
Game 973-974: Seattle at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Vargas) 14.877; Texas (Padilla) 14.623
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-165); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+155); Under
Game 975-976: LA Angels at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Santana) 16.045; Minnesota (Blackburn) 17.102
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-150); 10
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-150); Over
Game 977-978: NY Yankees at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Mitre) 16.188; White Sox (Richard) 15.562
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-120); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-120); Under
Game 979-980: Toronto at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Richmond) 14.930; Oakland (Braden) 15.192
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-135); Over
WNBA
Minnesota at Detroit
The Shock look to build on their 8-2 ATS record in their last 10 games against the Western Conference. Detroit is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Shock favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-4).
Game 651-652: Minnesota at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 107.091; Detroit 113.245
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 6; 156
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 4; 158
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-4); Under
CFL
BC at Hamilton
The Lions look to take advantage of a Hamilton team that is just 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 home games. BC is the pick (-2) according to Dunkel, which has the Lions favored by 7. Dunkel Pick: BC (-2).
Game 403-404: BC at Hamilton
Dunkel Ratings: BC 110.229; Hamilton 103.238
Dunkel Line: BC by 7; 53
Vegas Line: BC by 2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: BC (-2); Over
Cajun Sports
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Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates
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The Washington Nationals will pay a visit to the Steel City for a four-game series versus the host Pittsburgh Pirates beginning Friday with the first pitch set for 7:05PM Eastern Time. Washington enters tonight’s contest off a 7 to 3 loss at Milwaukee on Thursday while the Pirates had the day off after losing in extra innings (10) at San Francisco 1 to 0 on Wednesday. The Nationals are 1-5 their last 6 versus the Pirates and 12-36 (-18.0) on the road this season. Washington will send John Lannan to the bump with his 7-7 record and ERA of 3.25 on the season. He has struggled on the road going 3-6 this season with an ERA of 5.51 and the Nationals are 5-15 his last 20 starts on the highway. Washington is 1-13 (-11.7) on the road versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs per game in the second half of the season the last 2 seasons. The host will send right-hander Ross Ohlendorf to the hill with his 8-8 record and ERA of 4.51 on the year. Ohlendorf has been solid at home posting a record of 6-2 with an ERA of 3.39 and the Pirates are 8-2 behind him at home. Pittsburgh is 4-0 their last 4 at home versus a left-handed starter, 5-0 when Ohlendorf is installed as a home underdog and 26-19 for +7.5 units at home this season. We are getting solid value with the host as they are the better team and installed as an underdog, take Pittsburgh on Friday night.
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Graded Selection: 2* Pittsburgh Pirates 4 Washington Nationals 2
Nelly
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Los Angeles + over Minnesota
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The Angels are 9-2 in the last eleven games as underdog and after winning three of four from Minnesota last week in Los Angeles the Angels could take out the Twins again in this match-up. Nick Blackburn was Minnesota's most reliable starter in the first half of the season but in two starts since the All Star break Blackburn has been shelled, allowing 13 runs and 19 hits in less than nine innings. Blackburn was hit hard by the Angels last week and he is backed up by a Minnesota bullpen that has an ERA of 6.25 in the last ten games. The Angels have had relief pitching problems much of the season but that problem has calmed in recent weeks. Ervin Santana pitched the one game Minnesota won out in Los Angeles and his 7.29 ERA will keep the Angels as an underdog despite being one of the hottest teams in baseball the last two months. Santana has actually pitched quite well on the road this season with a 1.15 WHIP and 3.71 ERA so the change of venue should help his cause. Minnesota is also batting just .250 in the last ten games against right-handers while the Angels are hitting .312 in that span. Los Angeles has been the better team in many ways this season and this is exceptional value on a team that is 31-11 in the last 42 games and 13-3 in the last 16 road games.
Red Dog Sports
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Minnesota at Detroit
Play Over
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Minnesota lost Simone Augustus to an injury early in the year but still have five players averaging 10 ppg or more. They have played 7 overs and 1 under this year on the road and the last 6 between the two teams have gone over.
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Detroit has played overtime in 4 of their last 6 games to help push scores higher and with Detroit only favored by 4 there is another chance for overtime. Detroit also has 5 players averaging 10 or more points per game and Cheryl Ford (Karl Malone's daughter) puts in 8 ppg.
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The over/under is set at 158 at this writing. Good luck if you choose to play it!
Brad Diamnd Sports
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Florida over Chicago Cubs
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Both the Cubs and Marlins have won 7 of 10, but as baseball goes the Marlins play in the NL east where they are far behind the Phillies. Whereas, the Cubs are tied for first in the Central. Florida is 11-4 at home and 9-1 at home versus a team with a losing road record. Chicago has lost four straight with RHP Harden when playing against a winning baseball team. Finally, the Marlins are 7-1 at home versus right-handed pitching. Don't miss my key power angle on Friday, I am currently on a perfect 5-0 run.
Marc Lawrence
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Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
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The Red Sox and Orioles battle in the opener of an A.L. East Division series in Baltimore tonight when John Smoltz takes on Jeremy Guthrie at Camden Yards. While Smoltz has dropped 5 of his 6 team starts with the Bosox this season he has registered a terrific 5 walk/28 strikeout ratio in those games. With Guthrie in struggling form (6-12 his last 18 team starts, including 2-6 at home) and just 2-7 lifetime in his career team starts against the Red Sox, look for Boston to improve to 16-3 in the last 19 games in this series here tonight.
Jimmy The Moose
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Toronto Blue Jays at Oakland Athletics
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays
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As of Thursday night it seemed the Blue Jays weren't going to make any deals so expect a relaxed bunch on Friday night in Oakland. The Jays get Richmond back on the mound and they have won 5 of his last 7 road starts. In his last 5 starts as a road dog they are 4-1. The Jays are 7-3 in his last 10 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The A's are 2-6 in their last 8 games as a home favorite. Oakland has lost 7 of Braden's last 9 starts. In his last 5 home starts the A's are 1-4. The A's are 3-13 in Bradents last 16 starts as a favorite. The Jays have won 10 of the last 12 meetings. Play on the Toronto Blue Jays +.
DOC'S
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Chicago Cubs @ Florida Marlins
PICK: Chicago Cubs
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The Cubs are been playing outstanding baseball of late and now led the Cardinals in the loss column and will head to Florida to open up a three game series at Landshark Stadium. The Cubs will send Rich Harden to the mound and he has not lost a game since July 10th. His last three starts have been outstanding allowing just two earned runs in 19 innings of work. We will ride that wave tonight and expect to collect big in the process.
Rob Vinciletti
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Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Under 10½
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What we want to do is play the under for a road dog of +140 or more off a 5+ run loss if the total is 10 or more and they had 2 or less runs on 4 or less hits in their last game and tonight's opponent won by 5+ runs and had 10+ hits.This system has cashed 8 straight times since 2004 and averages 6 runs per game.Now for the analysis on the rest of the game.Texas has been an under team this year.They are 3-11 nder in the second half vs 500 or better teams and have gone under in 23 of 32 vs leftys this year.Seattle is struggling at the plate averaging 2.4 runs over the last week.The Mariners are 5-1 to the under on the road when the total is 10 to 10.5 and have gone under in 5 of 7 games vs 500 or better in the second half.The Pitching matchup looks good too.V.Padilla is 3-0 with a 3.50 era at home vs Seattle and had allowed 3 earned runs in over 20 innings vs Seattle.Six of his 9 homers have stayed under.For Seattle its lefty J.Vargas tonight.Seattle has stayed under in 4 of his 6 road starts this year and he pitched real well back in May here in Texas, going 5 innings and allowing just 1 run.Based on the big system and all the qualifying angles Ill go under the total here tonight.On the late phone card I have 2 Power house systems one is 11-1 and wins by over 4 runs per game the other is 10-1 and wins by over 3 runs per game
Dominic Fazzini
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Washington -120 at PITTSBURGH
The Nationals have found their ace – or at least what passes for one in Washington.
Left-hander John Lannan (7-7, 3.25 ERA) keeps getting better and better with nearly each start. He allowed one run and five hits in eight innings Sunday against San Diego, but left with a no-decision, and has a 1.14 ERA in his last three outings.
Pirates starter Ross Ohlendorf (8-8, 4.51) has been inconsistent all season. The right-hander gave up two runs and six hits in six innings Saturday at Arizona, and has pitched pretty well for three straight starts, going 1-1 with a 3.78 ERA.
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Ohlendorf was battered in his last outing vs. Washington, though, allowing five runs and six hits in five innings on May 18. Even though he has been pitching well recently, that just tells me that he is due for a real stinker on the mound. I’m thinking today is that day.
The Pirates have to be demoralized with a flurry of trades that has gutted their roster. Only one of their Opening Day starters from 2008 remains on the roster, with catcher Ryan Doumit being the lone survivor.
Pittsburgh fans are sure to voice their displeasure at today’s game, at least those who even bother showing up.
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Lannan has faced the Pirates once this season, allowing one run in seven innings on May 20, and I expect him to handle the Bucs again. Washington also is 7-3 in Lannan’s last 10 starts. Go with the Nationals in this one.
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2♦ WASHINGTON
Bobby Maxwell
Milwaukee -115 at SAN DIEGO
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Today's FREE winner comes from out west as I go with the Brewers on the highway in San Diego taking on the Padres.
Very interesting storyline here as the Brewers arrive in San Diego to kick off a three-game set with the Padres. Play Milwaukee because it is a much better squad than the Padres and they have extra motivation to win this one.
Coming back to San Diego is Milwaukee closer Trevor Hoffman who would love to get in the game with a two-run lead in the ninth inning. He played most of his career in San Diego but some of the fans got a little hostile toward him as he left this off-season. But if he gets in the game, I suspect he'll be well received and most of the fans there will be rooting for him against the hapless Padres.
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Starting for the Brewers is Braden Looper (9-5, 4.79) who is 2-1 in his last three outings and 5-3 on the road this season. In his last roadie he shut out the Pirates for seven innings and the Brewers have won his last three road outings. As a Cardinal, Looper led them to four wins over San Diego without a loss in 2007 and 2008.
Chad Gaudin (4-9, 4.57) is on the hill for the Padres. He's just 1-5 with a 4.89 ERA at Petco Park this season and they have lost eight of his last 10 outings, including five in a row at home.
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The Brewers tend to dominate bad teams, and San Diego is as bad as they come. They are on slides of 7-20 at home, 16-35 in series openers, 22-46 as an underdog, 1-8 on Fridays and 1-10 at home against right-handers. Play the Cardinals in this one.
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4♦ MILWAUKEE
Jeff Benton
Boston at BALTIMORE +105
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Tough loss with the Marlins as a big underdog against Atlanta on Thursday. Still, I’m on a 16-7 run with freebies, including 7-2 over the last nine days. For Friday, I’m going to take a shot with the Orioles as a small home underdog against the Red Sox.
This is pretty much a go-against play on Boston and John Smoltz. The veteran pitcher may be a future Hall of Famer, but he’s pretty much stunk up the joint since joining the Sox rotation in late June. He’s 1-4 with a 7.04 ERA in six starts, and Boston has dropped five of those games – including two losses to Baltimore.
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The first defeat to the Orioles came at Camden Yards on June 30, and Smoltz actually pitched decently, giving up a run on three this in four innings and the Red Sox ended up taking a 10-1 lead before blowing it and losing 11-10. Smoltz’s other start against the O’s came just five days ago in Beantown, and he got rocked for six runs on nine hits in five innings, losing 6-2. That followed a 6-3 loss in Texas in Smoltz also gave up six runs and nine hits, this time in 5 2/3 innings. Not only does Smoltz not have a quality outing in any of his six starts in a Red Sox uniform, but he’s only made it through six innings once – and he lost that game 6-0 to Oakland.
Yes, it’s true that Baltimore starter Jeremy Guthrie is not having a very good season himself (7-9, 5.21 ERA, including two ugly performances against the Red Sox, the most recent being Saturday’s 7-2 loss in Boston). However, the right-hander has been decent at home this year (4-4, 4.10 ERA), and he’s pitched much better in his career against Boston at Camden Yards, giving up two earned runs each in four straight starts (eight total) covering a combined of 24 1/3 innings (2.95 ERA) in 2007 and 2008. Granted, the Orioles managed to split those four games, but they were dreadful those two years.
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Finally, even though the Sox rallied for an 8-5 victory over Oakland yesterday – barely winning as a mindboggling minus-420 favorite – they’re still just 4-8 in their last 12 games, including five straight road losses in which they scored a grand total of nine runs. Well, if they struggle again to score tonight, they’re not winning this game, because I don’t see Smoltz fixing his issues anytime soon. Make a smart value play on Baltimore.
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4♦ BALTIMORE
Matt Rivers
For Friday take the Yankees at US Cellular.
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If you ask me who is better between Clayton Richard and Sergio Mitre than I will say Richard. The Chicago southpaw just looked great in that last outing stifling the Tigers at Comerica and helped his White Sox salvage a game in that series. Meanwhile Mitre is only on the Yankees due to atrition and has to potential to get smacked today if that sinker is not working. So the edge in terms of the starters clearly goes against me, and I am not belittling the importance of that, but I still cannot pass up the much better and still much hotter Yankees at this price. Chicago did pull it out last night but that doesn't faze me at all.
I do expect Mitre to give up runs but I also expect Richard to come back down to Earth in a higher than expected scoring game. Balls fly out of this ballpark and we all know how Arod, Teixeira, Damon, Jeter and the Bombers do not mind that one bit.
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Ever since Arod returned the Yanks have been winning at a ridiculously high pace and I just do not see much changing here against a White Sox team that has been pretty brutal over the past few weeks. Besides Mark Buehrle nobody on "the good guys" has been doing much of anything. Chicago lost three of four in Detroit and just were swept in Minnesota. For sure coming home is a good thing but I'm betting it's not good enough in this spot.
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1♦ Yankees
JIM FEIST
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LOS ANGELES ANGELS / MINNESOTA TWINS
TAKE OVER
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LA's offense is on a roll, on a 5-0 run over the total. The offense will only get better in the Metrodome, a great park for singles, doubles and homers. LA righty Ervin Santana isn't all the way back yet, with a 6.11 ERA his last three starts despite 2 wins. Minnesota righty Nick Blackburn has also struggled, with a 9.77 ERA his last three starts. Look for more offense than oddsmakers anticipate, play the Angels/Twins Over the total.